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ESO Population Declining @ SteamCharts
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karekiz✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
An MMO is not a festivel. Not even in the slightest.
A festivel doesn't have to run year round so it doesn't matter if the third day there was slightly more drop off. MMO's are dramatically different by nature.
Blizzard themselves look more into cash shop than sub numbers. Cash shop is driven by playerbase. Playerbase is driven by retention. ESO even more so than WoW due to business model.1 -
wenchmore420b14_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭anitajoneb17_ESO wrote: »wenchmore420b14_ESO wrote: »Anyone who was here at launch doesn't use Steam as it was not available till almost 9 months after launch.
Steam was available on Steam on July 2014, that's three months after launch.
Other than that I agree with you : Steam sucks, and ESO is not in trouble.
Lol.. Your right.
(Was late and just home from work and hit wrong key.. hehe.. Thank you).
Huzzah!!Drakon Koryn~Oryndill, Rogue~Mage,- CP ~Doesn't matter any more
NA / PC Beta Member since Nov 2013
GM~Conclave-of-Shadows, EP Social Guild, ~Proud member of: The Wandering Merchants, Phoenix Rising, Imperial Trade Union & Celestials of Nirn
Sister Guilds with: Coroner's Report, Children of Skyrim, Sunshine Daydream, Tamriel Fisheries, Knights Arcanum and more
"Not All Who Wander are Lost"
#MOREHOUSINGSLOTS“When the people that can make the company more successful are sales and marketing people, they end up running the companies. The product people get driven out of the decision making forums, and the companies forget what it means to make great products.”
_Steve Jobs (The Lost Interview)0 -
danno8✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.4 -
karekiz✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Steam Charts: https://steamcharts.com/top/p.2
Top Games played by concurrent users:
37. The Elder Scrolls Online 14,412 <Current> - 23,437 <Peak>
Next MMO:
44. Black Desert Online 12,779 <Current> - 17,308 <Peak
ESO is doing ok. Currently standing as top played MMO according to steam ***As of literally right no***Edited by karekiz on September 21, 2019 4:45PM2 -
danno8✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
An MMO is not a festivel. Not even in the slightest.
A festivel doesn't have to run year round so it doesn't matter if the third day there was slightly more drop off. MMO's are dramatically different by nature.
Blizzard themselves look more into cash shop than sub numbers. Cash shop is driven by playerbase. Playerbase is driven by retention. ESO even more so than WoW due to business model.
Obviously.
The guy I quoted was using Elsweyr Vs Summerset as an example of how poorly the game is doing since all the extra players that came to play during Elsweyr compared to Summerset eventually left. I simply pointed out that it did bring in more players and from a revenue standpoint that is a positive. If it only brought in the same number as Summerset, or fewer, then it would be a negative scenario for growth, although not necessarily for revenue.
It doesn't matter though. My last post before this one shows that 2019 (according to Steam anyway) has been ESO best year for average and concurrent players so far.
1 -
Cpt_Teemo✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Then again ESO was first launched on its own launcher so Steam is only part of the community and only pc0 -
MartiniDaniels✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...3 -
Tandor✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
That would be true of a product for which there was a steady and constant demand all year round, but not for one which has a fluctuating market, where the company would look at the overall trend year on year - which is positive in ESO's case so far as Steam is concerned (and seemingly more generally).2 -
Elsonso✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
... could also mean that they know more than the people in the forum who think that the game is tanking because of balance changes.
The forums go into a doom and gloom tantrum every time they make balance changes. I cannot tell you how many times this game has died because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.
3 -
Ragnarock41✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭YaYaPineapple wrote: »People are learning that playing ESO through Steam causes problems.
They improved steam compatibility greatly. Outside of a few incidents I am happy as a steam player.
Forum strikes again with ignorance though.Edited by Ragnarock41 on September 21, 2019 6:40PM2 -
nafensoriel✭✭✭✭✭Lord_Eomer wrote: »/snip
Do you think steam chart figures bear any resemblance of reality on games that started off steam?
Steam is one of the worst platforms for MMOs. Most players avoid them like the plague. You also cannot account for players who switched from steam to standard.2 -
Bouldercleave✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
The correlation that this shows is that school in the US is out in June and resumes in late August / early September.
School is back in - numbers decrease for an online game. SHOCKING NEWS!1 -
Jaraal✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭This cracks me up! 30% decline in Steam players, but oh, that's just yucky Steam! 30% more Steam players got jobs and went on vacations the last 3 months than all the other players! Surely console and ESO.exe players are on the rise! How dare you extrapolate overall logins from a tiny sampling of tens of thousands of players!
/facepalmRIP Bosmer Nation. 4/4/14 - 2/25/19.8 -
MartiniDaniels✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
That would be true of a product for which there was a steady and constant demand all year round, but not for one which has a fluctuating market, where the company would look at the overall trend year on year - which is positive in ESO's case so far as Steam is concerned (and seemingly more generally).lordrichter wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
... could also mean that they know more than the people in the forum who think that the game is tanking because of balance changes.
The forums go into a doom and gloom tantrum every time they make balance changes. I cannot tell you how many times this game has died because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.
Guys, I spent most of my gaming time during last year in ESO. And I was buying everything I liked in CS before they pooped on the lore with bosmer&argonian changes. TES lore is the only fantasy lore universe I care. I will have zero profit if this game will go down, I am interested in ESO's thriving and growth. So I want devs to stop with random balance shake downs...
They are awful, both U23 and U24. Rosters are e-m-p-t-y in progression groups. Some guilds shut down, for example one of main craglorn PC EU guilds was disbanded. Guild chats which were lively, now near dead. Ofc this is just my experience, and other guild may be bustling with happy motivated players. But recent poll shows, that majority have issues with guild activity:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/494590/end-game-guild-particpation-over-the-last-6-months#latest3 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭lordrichter wrote: »maddiniiLuna wrote: »Hello,
Keep in mind, that this chart is in no way an accurate representation of the player numbers in ESO. It's only for steam players and only for EU Servers. There is also NA Servers, Non-Steam Users, All the console users etc. Besides the fact, that it doesn't record your activity, if you are set to invisible in Steam. The "real" numbers will be way higher then this.
Well, you are correct that it only shows a subset of the player base though I think it is both EU and NA since Steam is just looking at total number of player playing the game via steam linked accounts.
However, this is the only metrics we really get on the game as nothing is published by Zos. Considering pretty much every month ESO Steam charts shows growth over the same month they year before it seems Zos is doing pretty good. I do not think OP will be missed.
Well... Steam charts suggests that Elsweyr was not as interesting as Summerset. June 2018 to June 2019 shows that, among Steam players, Elsweyr was nowhere near the draw. While the numbers are higher, Elsweyr lost player interest faster. Also, year-to-year, if you look at the screen shot posted, August is down this year from last.
I have noted in this thread that that there is one case of the decrease while OP is indicating it is happening again. By business analysis methods using those stats Zos has been doing a kick ass job. Yes, one blip would be reason for further study but OP's comment is merely frustration rather than proper analysis.1 -
Jaraal✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
That would be true of a product for which there was a steady and constant demand all year round, but not for one which has a fluctuating market, where the company would look at the overall trend year on year - which is positive in ESO's case so far as Steam is concerned (and seemingly more generally).lordrichter wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
... could also mean that they know more than the people in the forum who think that the game is tanking because of balance changes.
The forums go into a doom and gloom tantrum every time they make balance changes. I cannot tell you how many times this game has died because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.
Guys, I spent most of my gaming time during last year in ESO. And I was buying everything I liked in CS before they pooped on the lore with bosmer&argonian changes. TES lore is the only fantasy lore universe I care. I will have zero profit if this game will go down, I am interested in ESO's thriving and growth. So I want devs to stop with random balance shake downs...
They are awful, both U23 and U24. Rosters are e-m-p-t-y in progression groups. Some guilds shut down, for example one of main craglorn PC EU guilds was disbanded. Guild chats which were lively, now near dead. Ofc this is just my experience, and other guild may be bustling with happy motivated players. But recent poll shows, that majority have issues with guild activity:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/494590/end-game-guild-particpation-over-the-last-6-months#latest
I can confirm, lots of my game friends have quit in the last month or two, all my guilds are losing players, guild and zone chats are quieter than I've ever seen.
And most of those players that are no longer there were not on Steam.... imagine that.RIP Bosmer Nation. 4/4/14 - 2/25/19.3 -
Tandor✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
That would be true of a product for which there was a steady and constant demand all year round, but not for one which has a fluctuating market, where the company would look at the overall trend year on year - which is positive in ESO's case so far as Steam is concerned (and seemingly more generally).lordrichter wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »OP shows correlation between wild balance changes and game population. From 17569 in June to 12591 in September. This is 30% drop. 30% of steam playerbase drop in 3 months... In any company there will be already emergency meetings and emergency actions to stop this. And what they do? 50%-63% nerf to all dots... and DLC without group/PVP content...
... could also mean that they know more than the people in the forum who think that the game is tanking because of balance changes.
The forums go into a doom and gloom tantrum every time they make balance changes. I cannot tell you how many times this game has died because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.
Guys, I spent most of my gaming time during last year in ESO. And I was buying everything I liked in CS before they pooped on the lore with bosmer&argonian changes. TES lore is the only fantasy lore universe I care. I will have zero profit if this game will go down, I am interested in ESO's thriving and growth. So I want devs to stop with random balance shake downs...
They are awful, both U23 and U24. Rosters are e-m-p-t-y in progression groups. Some guilds shut down, for example one of main craglorn PC EU guilds was disbanded. Guild chats which were lively, now near dead. Ofc this is just my experience, and other guild may be bustling with happy motivated players. But recent poll shows, that majority have issues with guild activity:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/494590/end-game-guild-particpation-over-the-last-6-months#latest
I understand your feelings, and that when there was a poll 57 out of 81 players reported that they had issues with guild activity, and that 57 is indeed a majority of 81. I fully get that. Those numbers really do speak for themselves.
3 -
danno8✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/429138/is-the-player-population-really-dead
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/493884/why-eso-is-failing
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/364319/eso-dead-before-christmas/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/147075/so-now-that-eso-is-dying-how-long-until-elder-scrolls-6
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/384100/eso-could-learn-from-destiny
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/143423/why-eso-will-die-in-less-than-2-years/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/233906/why-i-think-this-great-game-is-dying
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/142695/is-eso-dying/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/412324/is-eso-going-broke/p1
*Yawn*7 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/429138/is-the-player-population-really-dead
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/493884/why-eso-is-failing
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/364319/eso-dead-before-christmas/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/147075/so-now-that-eso-is-dying-how-long-until-elder-scrolls-6
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/384100/eso-could-learn-from-destiny
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/143423/why-eso-will-die-in-less-than-2-years/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/233906/why-i-think-this-great-game-is-dying
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/142695/is-eso-dying/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/412324/is-eso-going-broke/p1
*Yawn*
Yes. People have been falsely stating this game was dead, dying and more since it launched. Time has proven them to be as wrong as one could be.3 -
Jaraal✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/429138/is-the-player-population-really-dead
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/493884/why-eso-is-failing
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/364319/eso-dead-before-christmas/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/147075/so-now-that-eso-is-dying-how-long-until-elder-scrolls-6
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/384100/eso-could-learn-from-destiny
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/143423/why-eso-will-die-in-less-than-2-years/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/233906/why-i-think-this-great-game-is-dying
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/142695/is-eso-dying/p1
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/412324/is-eso-going-broke/p1
*Yawn*
Yes. People have been falsely stating this game was dead, dying and more since it launched. Time has proven them to be as wrong as one could be.
The thing is, we could be down to 1,000 players a day logging in, and some would still say, "Oh, the game is not dead! Me and my buddies are having a blast!"
I don't think anybody here really believes the game will die anytime soon. But population decreases do affect us as players.... some more than others. And at what point of profit vs. loss will they reduce the rate of new content and quality of life enhancements? Only time will tell.RIP Bosmer Nation. 4/4/14 - 2/25/19.6 -
MLGProPlayer✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
Why would you cherry pick a random length of time?
Right now, the average concurrent population is the same as it was last year. That's the most recent data point, and the most relevant as it tells us about the game's current population.
The fact that we are sitting at the same concurrent population 12 months later is worrying. The fact that ZOS lost 30% of its active player base in a span of 4 months is concerning. It's the first time that the game has lost players for 4 straight months since early 2016.
No, the game isn't dead. But this is a worrying trend.Edited by MLGProPlayer on September 21, 2019 8:26PM2 -
danno8✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
Why would you cherry pick a random length of time?
Right now, the average concurrent population is the same as it was last year. That's the most recent data point, and the most relevant as it tells us about the game's current population.
The fact that we are sitting at the same concurrent population 12 months later is worrying. The fact that ZOS lost 30% of its active player base in a span of 4 months is concerning. It's the first time that the game has lost players for 4 straight months since early 2016.
No, the game isn't dead. But this is a worrying trend.
Cherry picking? Why don't you go ahead and pick any 12 month period from the games release and compare it to the last 12 months. I choose 12 months because annual reports are the corporate norm. Picking just one month, this last month, we'll THAT is cherry picking.
This 4 month stretch has been a longer negative than usual, but I'm not worried because overall the game is doing very well.1 -
Elsonso✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MartiniDaniels wrote: »Guys, I spent most of my gaming time during last year in ESO. And I was buying everything I liked in CS before they pooped on the lore with bosmer&argonian changes. TES lore is the only fantasy lore universe I care. I will have zero profit if this game will go down, I am interested in ESO's thriving and growth. So I want devs to stop with random balance shake downs...
They are awful, both U23 and U24. Rosters are e-m-p-t-y in progression groups. Some guilds shut down, for example one of main craglorn PC EU guilds was disbanded. Guild chats which were lively, now near dead. Ofc this is just my experience, and other guild may be bustling with happy motivated players. But recent poll shows, that majority have issues with guild activity:
The guilds are always dying, dead, and on their last legs. Heck, according to predictions here in the forum, there aren't any guilds left, and haven't been for years, now.
Again.... I cannot tell you how many times this game has died here in the forum because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.MLGProPlayer wrote: »The fact that we are sitting at the same concurrent population 12 months later is worrying. The fact that ZOS lost 30% of its active player base in a span of 4 months is concerning. It's the first time that the game has lost players for 4 straight months since early 2016.
And it might be worrying, not that we are the ones that should be worried, if this was across the entire player base rather than just Steam players. You talk like these numbers cover everyone playing on all platforms, and they do not.
0 -
RinaldoGandolphi✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭I don't understand why folks take things so personally over a game. ESO has had a pretty good life so far. to make an "educated guess" based on comments from Todd Howard, Matt Firor, and Pete Hines i'd say ESO will be around until 2022 or 2023 give or take a year or so.
ESO only exists because Bethesda needed time away from the series to create Fallout 76, and Starfield. Since Bethesda knew they were not going to be able to make an TES title for the current console generation, and they wanted to expand their business, it makes sense they founded ZOS and created TESO as a spinoff to ensure TES as a franchise didn't go 10+ years without a new game.
We know Starfield will probably come out the 1st year the new consoles arrive and the PS5 and Next Xbox is supposed to be Quarter 3 of 2020, so next Christmas season. Your looking at 24-30 months after the release of Starfield before TES6 will be announced give or take. (Again this is based on what Howard and Hines have hinted at). We know TES^ is deep in development because Skyrim Grandma was at Bethesda headquarters back in April recording voice for a character in the TES6. Jermey Soule has also been dropping hints on Twitter that he is working on the soundtrack for TES6.
Todd Howard said TES6 will be a game that will be playable for decade. They also have worked hard to cultivate the Creation Club around Fallout 4, and Skyrim SE to prepare players for a constant steady stream of content and cosmetic items. By this time ESO will be 8-9 years old, they will have reached the barrier of what they can do with this old tech technologically. Bethesda isn't Blizzard and they won't keep things open just to keep things open. They could have continued to sell Skyrim DLC packs indefinitely and make 10x the amount of money, but they didn't...they moved on...that how Bethesda operates. (Zenimax Media is just Bethesda Corporate that was created by Bethesda as an umbrella company for tax purposes since its much easier to manage multiple entities from a single corporate office)
I'd say 2023 to 2024 ESO will wind down. Zenimax Online Studios is already working on a new game so ESO isn't even their primary focus right now as we speak. They should be done with this new MMO by then. This was the plan all along at some point to hand TES back over to Bethesda and allow Firor and company to make their new game. Remember Bethesda wants new IP, and I am sure Firor has his own plans too, he doesn't want to work on ESO forever. Just like Bethesda got burned out on TES, they simply needed a break from it. ZOS will have earned their break and have earned their chance to work on something new, to go forward on a new adventure!
ESO will be fine for the next few years, folks come and go, thats just how it is. Make no mistake though, don't confuse them with Blizzard and think they will run this game for the next 20 years like WOW, thats not how Bethesda operates, and I doubt thats what Firor signed up for. Im sure Firor was told if he towed the line with ESO for a bit, he would get a chance to work on a new game, and he seemed very excited about this new game they are working on.
Enjoy ESO for what it is, and while its here, everything will be fine. Bethesda is pretty modder friendly, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't let the community run their own private servers like the old WOW Classic, unlike Blizzard Bethesda is pretty modder friendly, so I think ESO will live on much longer than its official support date Rinaldo Gandolphi-Breton Sorcerer Daggerfall Covenant
Juste Gandolphi Dark Elf Templar Daggerfall Covenant
Richter Gandolphi - Dark Elf Dragonknight Daggerfall Covenant
Mathias Gandolphi - Breton Nightblade Daggerfall Covenant
RinaldoGandolphi - High Elf Sorcerer Aldmeri Dominion
Officer Fire and Ice
Co-GM - MVP
Sorcerer's - The ONLY class in the game that is punished for using its class defining skill (Bolt Escape)
"Here in his shrine, that they have forgotten. Here do we toil, that we might remember. By night we reclaim, what by day was stolen. Far from ourselves, he grows ever near to us. Our eyes once were blinded, now through him do we see. Our hands once were idle, now through them does he speak. And when the world shall listen, and when the world shall see, and when the world remembers, that world will cease to be. - Miraak5 -
MLGProPlayer✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭lordrichter wrote: »MartiniDaniels wrote: »Guys, I spent most of my gaming time during last year in ESO. And I was buying everything I liked in CS before they pooped on the lore with bosmer&argonian changes. TES lore is the only fantasy lore universe I care. I will have zero profit if this game will go down, I am interested in ESO's thriving and growth. So I want devs to stop with random balance shake downs...
They are awful, both U23 and U24. Rosters are e-m-p-t-y in progression groups. Some guilds shut down, for example one of main craglorn PC EU guilds was disbanded. Guild chats which were lively, now near dead. Ofc this is just my experience, and other guild may be bustling with happy motivated players. But recent poll shows, that majority have issues with guild activity:
The guilds are always dying, dead, and on their last legs. Heck, according to predictions here in the forum, there aren't any guilds left, and haven't been for years, now.
Again.... I cannot tell you how many times this game has died here in the forum because the studio chased away all the players. Seriously, someone get the big gun out and shoot this game. It refuses to die at the hands of the inept studio.MLGProPlayer wrote: »The fact that we are sitting at the same concurrent population 12 months later is worrying. The fact that ZOS lost 30% of its active player base in a span of 4 months is concerning. It's the first time that the game has lost players for 4 straight months since early 2016.
And it might be worrying, not that we are the ones that should be worried, if this was across the entire player base rather than just Steam players. You talk like these numbers cover everyone playing on all platforms, and they do not.
It's a massive sample size. You can very reliably extrapolate these trends to the rest of the player base.6 -
MLGProPlayer✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »MLGProPlayer wrote: »Player retention has certainly gotten worse over last year.
We went from 15.5k online when Summerset came out last year to 12.5k in September.
This year, we went from 17.8k when Elsweyr came out, down to the same 12.5k in September. You would expect growth from last September to this September, but there hasn't been any.
Ermmm...you just gave numbers that showed that more people came back for Elsweyr than for Summerset. That IS growth. Sure they all left again, leaving a similar base but from a marketing standpoint Elsweyr generated 75% more players playing the game than Summerset did.
If you ran a festival that turned out 75% more people this year than last you would consider that a huge success, it hardly matters that they are all gone now that the festival is over.
And all this decline in the last few months relating back to the current patch notes that have been out for a week is just...I don't even think the OP can truly believe that connection.
Population growth and player retention are crucial to MMO health. The fact that ZOS wasn't able to retain any of those new players and grow the population from last year is at least a bit worrying
If you take the average of Jan-August 2018 and compare it to the average of Jan-August 2019 it goes from 11843 to 14862. So from a year over year perspective there has been growth.
The largest average month and the largest peak concurrent month in 2019 was greater than the largest average and peak month in 2018, and the lowest average month and the lowest peak concurrent month in 2018 were lower than their 2019 counterpart.
In any way you look at it 2019 has been ESO best year yet (according to Steam charts). The fact that the OP is trying use the last couple months of trail off as proof of anything is laughable.
Why would you cherry pick a random length of time?
Right now, the average concurrent population is the same as it was last year. That's the most recent data point, and the most relevant as it tells us about the game's current population.
The fact that we are sitting at the same concurrent population 12 months later is worrying. The fact that ZOS lost 30% of its active player base in a span of 4 months is concerning. It's the first time that the game has lost players for 4 straight months since early 2016.
No, the game isn't dead. But this is a worrying trend.
Cherry picking? Why don't you go ahead and pick any 12 month period from the games release and compare it to the last 12 months. I choose 12 months because annual reports are the corporate norm. Picking just one month, this last month, we'll THAT is cherry picking.
This 4 month stretch has been a longer negative than usual, but I'm not worried because overall the game is doing very well.
Concurrent player population is the only thing that matters in an MMO. If that hasn't grown in a year, that is a concern.
Sure, ESO has attracted more players to the game this year than in past years, but the fact that they haven't been able to retain any of them is a problem.Edited by MLGProPlayer on September 21, 2019 9:42PM3 -
Wifeaggro13✭✭✭✭✭
✭https://mmo-population.com/r/elderscrollsonline
The daily player population has been very steady since June, with a gradual increase of ~1.5%/month.
The game is far from declining, nerfs and all...
The game is healthy in the front end but it's dead on the long term player base. In all honesty I find the last year has turned this into a very poor MMO .its still a medicore RPG with online options2