Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Iselin

Pathfinder wrote: »

What ZoS has essentially done was to go from giving me a particular mount for X crowns, to giving me a 50% chance to get a particular mount for X crowns. No thanks.

50%? In your dreams.

Elsonso

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

agegarton

I didn't track specifics, but I spent just over 10,000 Crowns and my son spent just under half that - around 4K. We both had great drops - a very balanced mix actually. He was luckier than me with the extra cards, but I had a little more luck with the Storm Antronach mounts. I'll def buy more when they refresh the crates.

driosketch

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.

ItsGlaive

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.

lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them

Ah the penny drops

I have to say, I've just realised something. As far as I'm aware, ZOS have not once come out in defence of crates. That, to me, is admirable. So many companies go on a PR spree when they do this kind of thing, trying to convince customers that "we're just doing this for you guys - really" and similar rubbish, but credit where credit is due - ZOS doesn't seem to have tried to go full snake-oil salesman on this. I applaud that, their silence in defence of these things is great honesty.

Mady

Reading all these gambling addiction stories makes me pretty sad. I don't even want to play the game right now.

If really feel sorry for those guys.

Elsonso

driosketch wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.

I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.

It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.

Rune_Relic

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

They would have to tell us what it is.

Which is my point.
The numbers are based on the assumption there is a list of 1~x
In that list will be y amount of items as far as @Recremen example is based.

It assumes every players get to pick everything from the list.
Not that the list is in fact shared with other people who remove items from the list.
In effect skipping lines that have already been accessed by others.

There is a big difference between having your own list of items that you increment through and having a shared list of goods that mutiple people increment through.
Hence that person doing 1500 VMA runs and never getting the item wanted.

I mean yeah we could sit here all day and invent gross hellscapes for ourselves, but I think the thrust of the message is that we have no guarantees the process is "equitable", and even if it were, we already know that pure RNG systems are crap and a direct attack on consumers.

Awwww! Pwease pway the sucker game with me
hehe.

Anyway, agreed.

SwaminoNowlino

My favorite part is all of the people "testing" these crates just covered their costs of producing the crates and everything in them. I lost count about 3 pages in, but just from the people posting in here they have made multiple thousands. Not to mention whatever is going on with the EU server.

GG

makeumrage

Sorry i did not see this earlier to participate... but i will just leave this here. Four of my guild mates so far, including me have bought the 4 pack and gotten apex mounts. I myself got the apex and pit mount within the first four. Dont be so quick to judge an understand it is a gamble. Theyve already told us theyve raised the drop rates since pts. Also i will note that the guys that did spend until they won in my guild never went past 30 to get an apex mount lol. If thats encouraging at all.

Recremen

SwaminoNowlino wrote: »

My favorite part is all of the people "testing" these crates just covered their costs of producing the crates and everything in them. I lost count about 3 pages in, but just from the people posting in here they have made multiple thousands. Not to mention whatever is going on with the EU server.

GG

They're also losing prospective buyers by not using the direct purchase model, though, so it's hard to say what will win out.

Lukums1

Ready for more jealousy LOL.

So first It was double VMA daggers and Destro Staffs now this.

4 crates and BOOM.



Then the remaining 11.

2 NEW Pups LOL

and The Storm Atro and Aura MOUNT LOL

Oh gg Lukums gg.

driosketch

lordrichter wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.

I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.

It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.

http://southpark.cc.com/clips/32f3l8/built-an-addiction-machine#source=473fef35-48a7-434c-afc6-207874c7f1a3:33ff1c4f-fb6f-4f14-91cb-42806897c967&position=11&sort=playlist

I mean, it's not like they don't know stuff like this will happen:

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/306241/gambling-addiction-i-lost-a-playmate-today

And they pushed this system out anyways. They are operating shady with grey legal cover already. I wish I could just give them the benefit of the doubt. But they haven't been up front and transparent so far, so at this point anything seems possible.

Egonieser

Oh...My...God...
So many....
...WHALES

I don't even...


Have I walked into a cheap casino?

I think you just convinced ZoS that they did the right thing by adding them to the game.

Oh well... Moving on..

Mercutio

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yep, may the odds never be in your favor (for maximum profits).

I was playing Plague, Inc. the other day, fun little time killer. After failing for a 5th time on my attempt to kill off humanity with a fungus I opened the "Pity Mode" - I kid you not, and the game allowed me to move onto the next level.

I know it won't happen, but it would be nice if Zeni added in some sort of failsafe. Say, spend $200 and you get one free pick out of the store.

Sad that such a suggestion even has to be made. What a screw job.

JimT722

biovitalb16_ESO wrote: »

Aliniel wrote: »

Deltia released a video of Crown Crates openning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI). You can clearly see the rates here. 45 crates, $100, 0 mounts.

ZOS, shame on you. I expected more. I can understand greed. You're a company, you need money. It's why you were formed in the first place. But in return we expect SOMETHING. When I saw this video, I was like "Wow... How can this be legal?". I am just super disappointed. There was a time when I thought highly of ZOS as a company. No more. Never again, guys. I am sorry, you have lay inside a coffin and hammered the nails yourselves. Gaining my trust again is gonna be so hard.

Yup its a money grab, plain and simple.

I used to watch some of Deltia's videos. Capitalizing on people's addictions. It looked like these were causing Deltia physical pain at the end.

Mercutio

Pathfinder wrote: »

Looks like 50 crates is going to net you about 400 gems. So essentially, those 400 gem mounts are costing you 20,000 crowns. I dont have hard numbers, but I think I am pretty close.

I know it's too early to tell, but does this seem to be the current consensus? So for the price of 50 crates you can get the one item you want?

Assuming you bought 20K Crowns for $160 you should be able to get what you want?

Enemy-of-Coldharbour

Mercutio wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yep, may the odds never be in your favor (for maximum profits).

I was playing Plague, Inc. the other day, fun little time killer. After failing for a 5th time on my attempt to kill off humanity with a fungus I opened the "Pity Mode" - I kid you not, and the game allowed me to move onto the next level.

I know it won't happen, but it would be nice if Zeni added in some sort of failsafe. Say, spend $200 and you get one free pick out of the store.

Sad that such a suggestion even has to be made. What a screw job.

They need pity mode for trial gear...

Prof_Bawbag

lordrichter wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.

I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.

It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.

I spent 8000cr's. 2x4 crown crates and 1x15 crown crates.

With those 8000 crowns I got the following notable items

Storm Bear
Wolf mount
Cloud Senche
Frost Mare
all costumes
Senche cub pet
Soul Shriven skin
The mount that was obtained via the recent gold version

With the gems I made trashing items, I managed to buy the Soul Shriven mount and Lion mount.

Now, I did get a heap of *** amongst all that, but for some of us we well and truly came out making a hefty gain. All those mounts alone would have cost around twice as much as that had I had to buy them via the normal crown store. I just began playing the game around 3 months ago on the PS4 having taken a hiatus from the Xbox version over a year ago, so I obviously stood to gain more from the off as I had none of those mounts, so I had more odds stacked in my favour regarding getting unique items I hadn't had the chance to purchase previously on the PS4. The only mount I still want is the storm senche, but I'd be a fool to think I'd get it if I were to spend another 8000cr's, so I'm just gonna accept 1 slight blip amongst many gains and hold off until the next batch of items hit the crates.

Preyfar

Egonieser wrote: »

Oh...My...God...
So many....
...WHALES

Yes, I am a "whale". Yes, I spend a lot of money on ESO because it's the only game I really enjoy playing -- or play at all anymore. I own everything in the Crown Store, and have supported ZOS. But rather than cater to whales, this is simply whale hunting, and I'm a Level 2 Beluga without set gear.

JimT722

Xabien wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.

lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them

Ah the penny drops

I have to say, I've just realised something. As far as I'm aware, ZOS have not once come out in defence of crates. That, to me, is admirable. So many companies go on a PR spree when they do this kind of thing, trying to convince customers that "we're just doing this for you guys - really" and similar rubbish, but credit where credit is due - ZOS doesn't seem to have tried to go full snake-oil salesman on this. I applaud that, their silence in defence of these things is great honesty.

Actually they had a big PR article on mmorpg.com, talking about how great these crates of consumables are. They have just been silent to their own community.

MMORPG: Why now add these to ESO, several years on?

MF: ESO is a living, breathing service and as such we make changes to it every quarter or so – new content, new systems, fixes, balance changes, etc. Just over a year ago we changed the game’s primary revenue model from subscription-required to subscription-optional, for example. This coming Update, we will drop character level requirements for exploring content, which is a large change to the game that we think will make the game more socially enabled and make it easier for players to find friends and group with them. We are committed to keeping the game fresh and interesting for players for the life of the game, so we will add new systems from time to time – Crown Crates is an example of this.

Enodoc

lordrichter wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Or the drop rates are being tweaked on the back end to make the crates appear better up front while players try to gauge their value. We have no way of knowing.

I believe in the honesty of ZOS to not do that considerably more than random people on the internet.

It is odd that other numbers are not being reflected. It might just be people cherry picking their results. Logging that they got a mount, but not logging everything else they get.

I'll check the revision history in a bit (which will probably take a while) and see if there's anything particularly odd there.

acw37162

Anacario wrote: »

10,000 crowns

30 crates

Crate 1
-Helstrom Ancestor Lizard Pet
-Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity x1
-Crown Tri-Restoration Potion x5
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5

Crate 2
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Warrior's Elixir x5
-Shornhelm Shepherd Pet(Dupe, 5 gems)

Crate 3
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Crate Experience Scroll x1
-Shadow Striping Body Marking

Crate 4
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit Costume
-Crown Crate Fortifying Meal x1
-Storm Atronach Transform Momento

Crate 5
-Crown Soul Gem x1
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit Costume(Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5

Crate 6 (5 cards)
-Battlemage Tribune Armor Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Spellcaster's Elixir x5
-Storm Atronach Horse Mount (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity x1

Crate 7
-Crown Survivor's Elixir x5
-Crown Invisibility Potion x5
-Crown Tri-Restoration Potion x5
-Feathered Bycoket Cap

Crate 8
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Lethal Poison x25
-Crown Crate Fortifying Meal x1

Crate 9 (5 cards)
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Shadow Striping Body Marking (Dupe, 5 gems)
-"Brilliance" Brocade Robes (Dupe, 13 gems)
-Crown Lesson: Riding Speed x1
-Crown Lethal Poison x25

Crate 10 (5 cards)
-Crown Crate Refreshing Drink x1
-Crown Mimic Stone x1
-Storm Atronach Senche Mount (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
-Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform Costume (Dupe, 5 gems)
-Crown Invisibility Potion x1

I got two Storm Atronach mounts in 10 crates. Either people are all paranoid and uppity over nothing, or I am ungodly lucky.

Considering I dumped the 25K crowns I had banked from the last two sales and got nothing and I opened 45 boxes to your 10 your ungodly lucky

PawadoTheFearless

I bought several crates as I had saved up crowns in anticipation of the event. I was very happy with the results. Got several mounts and outfits and a bunch of useful stuff. Some not so useful too but turned those back in for crowns. I did not keep track of what all I got but do know I have no complaints. But I do have a question. With the stuff I turned in for crowns, how do you spend those? They do not look like they work like regular crowns?

Celas_Dranacea

Can someone tell me how many gems the red pit wolf mount would cost to buy outright? That's the only thing I really need in life before I can pass away happily. Anxious to log in after my daughter is asleep tonight!

AnviOfVai

I also bought 10,000 crowns worth of crates and even though I got the atronach wolf mount which I really wanted, everything else I got was...well dissapointing.

I got some costumes (the only things i liked were the witches hat items.) I got the memento too but its are useless to me as I PVP.

and loads of consumables. You can get crown gems which are great! and then you can buy items with those, but you don't get that many at all by converting them.... its really mean.

£48 quid.

Not worth it in my opinion I won't be spending on these crates again

(also note with the witches hat things, if your an elf your ears are gonna cut through it. If your a graphic freak like me, it will annoy the hell out of you )

DigitalShibby

Celas_Dranacea wrote: »

Can someone tell me how many gems the red pit wolf mount would cost to buy outright? That's the only thing I really need in life before I can pass away happily. Anxious to log in after my daughter is asleep tonight!

300 I think?

Preyfar

Celas_Dranacea wrote: »

Can someone tell me how many gems the red pit wolf mount would cost to buy outright? That's the only thing I really need in life before I can pass away happily. Anxious to log in after my daughter is asleep tonight!

100 Gems

Callous2208

JimT722 wrote: »

Xabien wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.

lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them

Ah the penny drops

I have to say, I've just realised something. As far as I'm aware, ZOS have not once come out in defence of crates. That, to me, is admirable. So many companies go on a PR spree when they do this kind of thing, trying to convince customers that "we're just doing this for you guys - really" and similar rubbish, but credit where credit is due - ZOS doesn't seem to have tried to go full snake-oil salesman on this. I applaud that, their silence in defence of these things is great honesty.

Actually they had a big PR article on mmorpg.com, talking about how great these crates of consumables are. They have just been silent to their own community.

MMORPG: Why now add these to ESO, several years on?

MF: ESO is a living, breathing service and as such we make changes to it every quarter or so – new content, new systems, fixes, balance changes, etc. Just over a year ago we changed the game’s primary revenue model from subscription-required to subscription-optional, for example. This coming Update, we will drop character level requirements for exploring content, which is a large change to the game that we think will make the game more socially enabled and make it easier for players to find friends and group with them. We are committed to keeping the game fresh and interesting for players for the life of the game, so we will add new systems from time to time – Crown Crates is an example of this.

Lololol ol holy *** Matt. This *** had the nerve to say quarterly fixes, balance changes, new content, new systems. I think he's overselling it a wee bit.

Slylok

lordrichter wrote: »

I am beginning to wonder if @Enodoc 's spreadsheet is being scammed. The drop rate for Apex mounts has increased dramatically over the last hour or so.

Earlier it had very few mounts listed even though the thread was full of people who were ( supposedly ) getting them. Will have to take it however we want I suppose.