Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Viryu

Did anyone notice the option for "Gem Extraction" before opening the crates? Would it give more gems that way, or would it still be dependant on RNG?

Dymence

The spreadsheet had good intentions, but it's completely useless tbh.

Only the people who get *** rewards post in there. 200+ crates and only 2 apex? These results are so skewed it's not even funny. I bought a pack of 15 crates and got 2 apex mounts (granted it was the bear twice, so a duplicate) and I've spoken to a lot of people who got anywhere from 1 to 3 apex mounts in the 15 crate bundle.

In the end a gamble is going to be a gamble though. Some people end up lucky, other people not so much.

EDIT: I also wouldn't be surprised if some crown crate haters are filling the sheet up with rubbish information to discourage their purchase.

Preyfar

Viryu wrote: »

Did anyone notice the option for "Gem Extraction" before opening the crates? Would it give more gems that way, or would it still be dependant on RNG?

Gem Extraction lets you convert unwanted crate items (like XP scrolls, Mimic Stones, potions or food) into crown gems.

Ilsabet

Has anyone compiled a list of the crate-exclusive items, which according to Gina are supposed to be listed on the crate UI?

Preyfar

Dymence wrote: »

In the end a gamble is going to be a gamble though. Some people end up lucky, other people not so much.

I am in the "not so much" category of 70+ crates and no atro mounts. I did get a black maned lion, so... yay? The problem with RNG for cash is that somebody could buy a 15 pack of crates and get all 6 unique mounts, while another person could open 2,000+ crates and get zero atro mounts. Yeah, they'd be able to get the mounts through the gems, but still. The drop rate is punishing. I'm not against the crates, as I've opened a lot. But it's a feeling of... well, defeat to open that many and just get nothing but (mostly) crap.

But I got like a dozen Helstrom lizards, so I can create a lizard army and... I dunno, storm Wayrest or something. But I don't even feel like playing right now. After that many crates and getting "meh" over and over and over it's just kind of a self-defeating feeling.

Preyfar

Ilsabet wrote: »

Has anyone compiled a list of the crate-exclusive items, which according to Gina are supposed to be listed on the crate UI?

You can open up the Crown Store interface and see all the items listed in the crates. The only ones that don't show, to my knowledge, are some of the XP scrolls.

Enodoc

Dymence wrote: »

The spreadsheet had good intentions, but it's completely useless tbh.

Only the people who get *** rewards post in there. 200+ crates and only 2 apex? These results are so skewed it's not even funny. I bought a pack of 15 crates and got 2 apex mounts (granted it was the bear twice, so a duplicate) and I've spoken to a lot of people who got anywhere from 1 to 3 apex mounts in the 15 crate bundle.

In the end a gamble is going to be a gamble though. Some people end up lucky, other people not so much.

EDIT: I also wouldn't be surprised if some crown crate haters are filling the sheet up with rubbish information to discourage their purchase.

All we can do is assume good faith, as is the way for any open collaboration. That's not too far off what we had on PTS though.

And why did nobody tell me I had Superior and Epic the wrong way around?

Ilsabet

Preyfar wrote: »

Ilsabet wrote: »

Has anyone compiled a list of the crate-exclusive items, which according to Gina are supposed to be listed on the crate UI?

You can open up the Crown Store interface and see all the items listed in the crates. The only ones that don't show, to my knowledge, are some of the XP scrolls.

I'll have to do that after I get home tonight.

Enemy-of-Coldharbour

How much does a 15 Crown Crate purchase equate to US$?

Viryu

*buys a create for the starter 500 crowns*
*got trash*
*didn't get the Coin Ball Gown, the prettiest thing in the whole game*
*cries in a corner*

Preyfar

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

How much does a 15 Crown Crate purchase equate to US$?

It's 5,000 crowns. A pack of 5,500 crowns costs $40, so you're paying about $37-38 for a 15 pack.

Recremen

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Enemy-of-Coldharbour

Preyfar wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

How much does a 15 Crown Crate purchase equate to US$?

It's 5,000 crowns. A pack of 5,500 crowns costs $40, so you're paying about $37-38 for a 15 pack.

Ouch! Not for me...

ThePaleItalian

Caff32 wrote: »

Box 1:
25 Crown Lethal Poisons
5 Crown Spellcaster's Elixirs
5 Crown Warrior's Elixirs
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet (blue)

Box 2:
5 Crown Spellcaster's Elixirs
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing (blue)
5 Crown Invisibility Potions
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina (green)

So as I suspected, all trash.

Also:
25 Crown Lethal Poisons = 1 Gem
5 Crown Potions = 1 gem
1 Riding lesson = 1 gem

What a trash system. Glad I only bought two. Will never buy another.

Not trying to fight with you on this. But it was 2 crates.....

Once again, I am not a fan of this system, but would you be saying something else if you got everything you wanted?? Its an RNG gambling crate... not a trash system... its gambling..

biovitalb16_ESO

Spent roughly $30 worth on crates.

Bunch of crap
2 crappy soul-shriven armor outfits (may I just say these are fugly)
1 Daedric Scamp

Yeah, waste of money. If you can't get a mount in $30 worth than its just a rip off. Lesson learned.

Enemy-of-Coldharbour

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

Enodoc

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

Mx13

Recremen wrote: »

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

lol i want to see this please, my tin foil hat is ready.

Recremen

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

Follow the link, it explains the math. What is being measured here is all 459 trials simultaneously, not each individually. You are right to question, but need more background in probability to understand the message, which already lets you know how *** an average person is when trying to figure out how much money is appropriate to risk on these gambling boxes. Why is it incumbent on the customer to have an advanced math degree just to be able to make an informed decision about their risktaking?

ArvenAldmeri

Seing how some people are lucky is incredible. Myself I belong to that middle lucky part I would say. 30 crates - 0 atronach items, couple legendary items. 160-ish crown gems after converting everything I wont use. Bought another legendary mount. Thats it with me.
Then my bf opened 15 crates himself. He got 2 epic items and thats it. 0 legendary, 0 atronach mounts. Thats really sad and I feel really sorry for him. I was praying so bad for him to get at least some one legendary item... The RNG is really bad imo. In that 15 crate there should be at least 1 legendary item or enough gems to be able to buy legendary item. This is so broken. And the crown gems exchange rate is just terrible. Especially for the items that are epic+.

rhapsodious

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

I'd like to see this as well.

Abeille

biovitalb16_ESO wrote: »

Spent roughly $30 worth on crates.

Bunch of crap
2 crappy soul-shriven armor outfits (may I just say these are fugly)
1 Daedric Scamp

Yeah, waste of money. If you can't get a mount in $30 worth than its just a rip off. Lesson learned.

Then it wasn't a waste of money. There will be other seasons of crates, an now you know enough to make an informed choice

Recremen

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.

spiffy_jim

I opened 15 (duplicates/triplicates identified brackets)

• Jawbone Blades (2)
• Roostertail Frills
• Wrestler's Buzz Cut
• Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit (3)
• Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (2)
• Stornhelm Shepherd
• Battlemage Palatine Armor
• Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
• Storm Atronach Aura
• Aurbical Symbols
• High-Collared Coin Ball Gown
• Shadow Striping
• Battlemage Tribune Armor
• Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing

Total Gems (after duplicates/triplicates) and exchanging consumables) = 52

Spreadsheet = https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NgkucoylQX4l_CtRsGEbswZAnRHGmSajz1ZcJlBFUR4/edit#gid=0

SwaminoNowlino

Lemmings man. Bunch of lemmings. <img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020507/uploads/FileUpload/42/0ebebaac538c37ba5878cbe5175f7e.jpg&quot; />

Enemy-of-Coldharbour

Recremen wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.

Just sounds (to me) like that person has a ****load of cash to waste.

rhapsodious

Recremen wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

[picture]

I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.

I'm not a fan of the crates, but that.. doesn't really say anything, IMO. Could be anything from being a secret billionaire to being insanely lucky to being Rich in disguise. "Because reasons" isn't really a convincing argument for either camp...

Dymence

Recremen wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.

Such evidence, much wow

driosketch

For more data the Reddit megathread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollsonline/comments/5fw1po/researching_crown_crate_drop_rates/

Recremen wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

Follow the link, it explains the math. What is being measured here is all 459 trials simultaneously, not each individually. You are right to question, but need more background in probability to understand the message, which already lets you know how *** an average person is when trying to figure out how much money is appropriate to risk on these gambling boxes. Why is it incumbent on the customer to have an advanced math degree just to be able to make an informed decision about their risktaking?

I agree with the sentiment. I haven't had a chance to bring this up before myself, but because they are purposely hiding their numbers they are forcing their customers to work to figure out the cost value.

biovitalb16_ESO

Abeille wrote: »

biovitalb16_ESO wrote: »

Spent roughly $30 worth on crates.

Bunch of crap
2 crappy soul-shriven armor outfits (may I just say these are fugly)
1 Daedric Scamp

Yeah, waste of money. If you can't get a mount in $30 worth than its just a rip off. Lesson learned.

Then it wasn't a waste of money. There will be other seasons of crates, an now you know enough to make an informed choice

You are right, it wasn't a total waste of money. I now have the knowledge to not buy them ever again.