Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.
Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.
Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).
Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.
I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.
Peekachu99 wrote: »Mmkay. I feel that made out pretty good.
Results of SIXTY crown crates:
- Five of six mounts. Just missing the horse, but don't' really care.
-75% of the rares.
-All the uncommon.
-All the common.
I cashed in every item and I have 930 gems left that I will leave untouched till the next season. All in all, if you get the crowns on sale you'd be looking at $150 for all that, less if you're in US funds. I don't feel robbed at all, and the mounts are pretty dope.
That said. I'm not buying anything else for the season. The trick to gambling is to know when you've had a good run, then LEAVE the casino.
@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom A couple of times when I was cashing in items for gems, I feel like the tally didn't rise. I'm pretty sure I lost about 10 or 20 gems during the conversion process. I'll look over recorded PS4 footage to confirm.
gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
driosketch wrote: »gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?
@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.
Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
Yep. This was my exact experience with them, except instead of the Battlemage costume, I just got lizards, and I opened up 50% more crates than he did, too. It's bad. REALLY bad.Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »Deltia just opened $100 worth of crates. Video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI
Results are very disappointing.
@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
driosketch wrote: »Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
They would have to tell us what it is.
Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
Oooooh no no, nobody knows what ZOS is using. We don't even know if it's actually using a drop table or anything like that. For all we know it's not random at all, and just based on how much they like you. We have literally zero information on it, they are not legally required to tell us, and they are banking on our ignorance.
Deltia released a video of Crown Crates openning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI). You can clearly see the rates here. 45 crates, $100, 0 mounts.
ZOS, shame on you. I expected more. I can understand greed. You're a company, you need money. It's why you were formed in the first place. But in return we expect SOMETHING. When I saw this video, I was like "Wow... How can this be legal?". I am just super disappointed. There was a time when I thought highly of ZOS as a company. No more. Never again, guys. I am sorry, you have lay inside a coffin and hammered the nails yourselves. Gaining my trust again is gonna be so hard.
timidobserver wrote: »I bought 0 and had a 0% success rate. This makes me sad.
Rune_Relic wrote: »driosketch wrote: »Rune_Relic wrote: »@Rune_RelicRune_Relic wrote: »Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.
No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?
The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1
Feel free to give it a gander.
Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?
They would have to tell us what it is.
Which is my point.
The numbers are based on the assumption there is a list of 1~x
In that list will be y amount of items as far as @Recremen example is based.
It assumes every players get to pick everything from the list.
Not that the list is in fact shared with other people who remove items from the list.
In effect skipping lines that have already been accessed by others.
There is a big difference between having your own list of items that you increment through and having a shared list of goods that mutiple people increment through.
Hence that person doing 1500 VMA runs and never getting the item wanted.