Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Peekachu99 · December 2016

Mmkay. I feel that made out pretty good.

Results of SIXTY crown crates:
- Five of six mounts. Just missing the horse, but don't' really care.
-75% of the rares.
-All the uncommon.
-All the common.

I cashed in every item and I have 930 gems left that I will leave untouched till the next season. All in all, if you get the crowns on sale you'd be looking at $150 for all that, less if you're in US funds. I don't feel robbed at all, and the mounts are pretty dope.

That said. I'm not buying anything else for the season. The trick to gambling is to know when you've had a good run, then LEAVE the casino.

@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom A couple of times when I was cashing in items for gems, I feel like the tally didn't rise. I'm pretty sure I lost about 10 or 20 gems during the conversion process. I'll look over recorded PS4 footage to confirm.

Ilsabet · December 2016

Recremen wrote: »

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that drop rates don't tell you how many gambling boxes you need to buy to get a certain item. If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Also friendly reminder that there are no guarantees that they won't change the drop rates as they see fit, have no obligation to disclose the drop rates legally, and we have no way to validate alleged drop data.

Also friendly reminder that we don't even know if these use RNG at all, or to what extent, or if it changes moment to moment.

Also friendly announcement that I have evidence suggesting that some people have higher chances of getting the rare mounts than others, and will post the screenshot on request (names removed of course).

Yes, I would like to see that and the reason why.

I don't have the reason why, didn't want to ask, figured it would expose too many details about the claimant. They definitely had it all, though.

This makes me think he had some hax way of getting the stuff that didn't involve opening crown crates. Not that he was unnaturally blessed by RNGesus.

MarkusLiberty · December 2016

I got three mounts after 15 crates

Storm Atronach wolf
Senche Leapoard
Frost Mare

I also collected 112 gems thanks to getting a legendary skin reward twice, a skin I already got from the IC anniversary.
Got lucky, I guess, totally the crowns

[CRATE 1]
Potion
Potion
Crown Item
Body Marking

[CRATE 2]
Potion
Potion
Style Material
Non-combat Pet

[CRATE 3]
Potion
Style Material
Skin - duplicate
Crown Item

[CRATE 4]
Head Marking
Potion
Poison
Non-combat Pet

[CRATE 5]
Potion - white
Costume - blue
Crown Repair Kit - green
Food - green

[CRATE 6]
Mount - Frost Mare
Costume - blue
potion - white
Style Material - white
Potion - white

[CRATE 7]
Soul Gem - green
Drink - Green
Costume - Blue
Poison - White

[CRATE 8]
Non-Combat Pet - duplicat
Potion - white
Crown Repair - Green
Potion - White

[CRATE 9]
Mount - Senche Leopard
Style Material - white
Crown Item - green
Hair - blue
Potion - white

[CRATE 10]
Soul Gem - green
Potion - white
facial accessory - blue
costume - blue - duplicat

[CRATE 11]
Potion - white
poison - white
non combat pet - blue
Mount - Atronach Wolf

[CRATE 12]
Body Marking - blue
Soul Gem - Green
Crown Item - Green
Potion - white

[CRATE 13]
Potion - White
Crown item - Green
Non-combat pet - Blue
Potion - white

[CRATE 14]
Potion - white
Skin - duplicate
Potion - white
Potion - white

[CRATE 15]
Memento
Crown Repair - green
Style Material - white
Poison - white

Prof_Bawbag · December 2016

Peekachu99 wrote: »

Mmkay. I feel that made out pretty good.

Results of SIXTY crown crates:
- Five of six mounts. Just missing the horse, but don't' really care.
-75% of the rares.
-All the uncommon.
-All the common.

I cashed in every item and I have 930 gems left that I will leave untouched till the next season. All in all, if you get the crowns on sale you'd be looking at $150 for all that, less if you're in US funds. I don't feel robbed at all, and the mounts are pretty dope.

That said. I'm not buying anything else for the season. The trick to gambling is to know when you've had a good run, then LEAVE the casino.

@ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom A couple of times when I was cashing in items for gems, I feel like the tally didn't rise. I'm pretty sure I lost about 10 or 20 gems during the conversion process. I'll look over recorded PS4 footage to confirm.

That's what I'm now doing. I have around 210 gems and if the prices are in keeping with this particular set, then that's 2 rare mounts (not the top tier ones). I've walked away with the ice mare, Soul Shriven horse, that horse people got with the gold version, wolf mount, cloud senche and storm bear from 8000cr, that were bought during the recent crown sale. This isn't counting the Soul shriven morph/skin and nearly all the costumes along with the senche pet. Even though I still have 12,000 crown left, not going to sink any more into as the only mount I'd be happy with is the storm senche, but that ain't gonna happen as I've been waaaaaay too lucky.

gothickaiserub17_ESO · December 2016

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

Iselin · December 2016

Enslaved wrote: »

Ok, Just to add to statistics.

Chest bought/will buy : 0
Mounts gained : 0
Pets gained : 0
cosmetic items : 0
consumables : 0

Hope this helps a bit.

You can add my 0's to his. Just don't divide by us and your data should be OK.

driosketch · December 2016

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.

jkolb2030 · December 2016

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

I believe you can convert all utility items (potions, exp scrolls, poisons etc..) for gems. Costumes and pets, however, I believe you can only convert duplicates. If you get a pet and you've not yet collected it, it is automatically added to your collections tab and locked in.

It would be nice for someone to confirm this, as I have not yet purchased any crates.

gothickaiserub17_ESO · December 2016

driosketch wrote: »

gothickaiserub17_ESO wrote: »

Quick question, I really only want the High-Collard Coin Bell Dress, can i junk for gems cosmetics/mounts i don't own or is it only duplicates and consumables that are junkable?

@gothickaiserub17_ESO only duplicates, which is automatic, and consumables.

lame, that's gonna up the min. crate purchases to guarantee it quite a bit. Honestly being able to junk anything you get reeeeally would be a nice feature to help people get what they want a little quicker, which i suppose is not the point of gambling crates at all! They are literally banking on people really wanting 1 specific item from them

Rune_Relic · December 2016

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

Prof_Bawbag · December 2016

It's weird, I've always wanted the frost mare, it was the only mount I really wanted that I missed and now i have it, a part of me wishes I still didn't have it. Will miss looking on enviously at those who were lucky enough to have got it back yonder.

biovitalb16_ESO · December 2016

Every other MMO on the planet...

"Hey you guys want a new super cool mount? Well just give us $30 and it's yours."

ESO

"Hey you guys want a new super cool mount? Throw endless amounts of money at us for a chance to get it. Trolololol"

Looeeze · December 2016

I'm not really getting the hatred that people have for these crates, I have enjoyed them, I originally bought just the 15 bundle, but had much enjoyment and excitement from opening them that I bought another 15! I am already looking forward to next season.

I forgot to note what I got per box, so my data isn't too useable atall, but out of the 30 boxes, off the top of my head:

150% XP scroll (in first crate! I traded it in for 33 gems).
Storm horse (in second crate would you believe!).
Storm guar (probably midway through the first 15 boxes).
Coin ball gown (supes excited about this one, since I didn't buy crowns when I first started playing, so I missed out on this).
The wizard hat about 5 times.
The evening dress 4 times.
Lots of various not very exciting armor and soul shriven costumes.
Chub loon pet (super cute!!!)
Black dog.
Lizard pet.
Daedric pet.
Palamino mount.
2 of the memento actions.

I am probably/definitely missing things out, but like I said, I didn't write things down as I was getting them and I am not on the game currently to check, sorry!

Had about 3 or 4 sets of 5 cards which was a nice bonus.

A ton of consumables, about 3 of the crates were all consumables, so not too bad odds for getting something collectible at least once per crate. Consumables tended to be 3/4 of the cards. I got 11 mimic stones. 2 50% XP scrolls. Mostly useless potions and poisons which I prefer to make myself.

I traded all my consumables in for gems, since I like to do things old school by either earning them or crafting them, and with those gems I purchased myself the clouded senche mount, the belly dancer mask and the one eye makeup thing, with 2 gems left over for next season.

All in all I like a lot and price wasn't TOO bad since I only buy crowns when there is a massive discount like Black Fridas, unless I completely run out then I may begrudgingly buy enough crowns to cover whatever it is I want in store.

Preyfar · December 2016

Enemy-of-Coldharbour wrote: »

Deltia just opened $100 worth of crates. Video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI

Results are very disappointing.

Yep. This was my exact experience with them, except instead of the Battlemage costume, I just got lizards, and I opened up 50% more crates than he did, too. It's bad. REALLY bad.

Recremen · December 2016

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Rune_Relic · December 2016

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.

But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

driosketch · December 2016

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

They would have to tell us what it is.

Recremen · December 2016

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

Oooooh no no, nobody knows what ZOS is using. We don't even know if it's actually using a drop table or anything like that. For all we know it's not random at all, and just based on how much they like you. We have literally zero information on it, they are not legally required to tell us, and they are banking on our ignorance.

Rune_Relic · December 2016

driosketch wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

They would have to tell us what it is.

Which is my point.
The numbers are based on the assumption there is a list of 1~x
In that list will be y amount of items as far as @Recremen example is based.

It assumes every players get to pick everything from the list.
Not that the list is in fact shared with other people who remove items from the list.
In effect skipping lines that have already been accessed by others.

There is a big difference between having your own list of items that you increment through and having a shared list of goods that mutiple people increment through.
Hence that person doing 1500 VMA runs and never getting the item wanted.

Kayly101 · December 2016

Bought a crate and got potions and a hat I didnt want

Posted what I got on the zone chat and was called ***

What really ticks me off is myself...Why didnt I listen to everyone about the bad drop rates?!

maboleth · December 2016

I came here to see the update... crown crates... sounds like a fun idea, if not a money waster. But that's not my concern, it's optional. BUT, won't this make many of the rare or crafted stuff watered down? Like every player of these cards will have tons of potions, xp boosts and things like that.

Aliniel · December 2016

Deltia released a video of Crown Crates openning (

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI). You can clearly see the rates here. 45 crates, $100, 0 mounts.

ZOS, shame on you. I expected more. I can understand greed. You're a company, you need money. It's why you were formed in the first place. But in return we expect SOMETHING. When I saw this video, I was like "Wow... How can this be legal?". I am just super disappointed. There was a time when I thought highly of ZOS as a company. No more. Never again, guys. I am sorry, you have lay inside a coffin and hammered the nails yourselves. Gaining my trust again is gonna be so hard.

Ilsabet · December 2016

The thing I'd like most out of the items that are purported to be in the crates is the purple daggerback pet. I've wanted one of those since the first time I saw one in Craglorn.

Pets in the crown store cost either 400, 700, or 1000 crowns. That means that if I didn't get the purple daggerback within the first 3 crates, I'd be throwing money away.

Three crates to get the one thing I want? I don't like those odds at all.

Rune_Relic · December 2016

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

Oooooh no no, nobody knows what ZOS is using. We don't even know if it's actually using a drop table or anything like that. For all we know it's not random at all, and just based on how much they like you. We have literally zero information on it, they are not legally required to tell us, and they are banking on our ignorance.

Agreed. You are the mathematician here so I'll give you the numbers and you do the calcs.

1000 item list
100 different randomly jumbled items occur 10 times
10 players access that list in random order and random number of tries.
What is each players drop rate for each item ?

timidobserver · December 2016

I bought 0 and had a 0% success rate. This makes me sad.

biovitalb16_ESO · December 2016

Aliniel wrote: »

Deltia released a video of Crown Crates openning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxTxh6l8eI). You can clearly see the rates here. 45 crates, $100, 0 mounts.

ZOS, shame on you. I expected more. I can understand greed. You're a company, you need money. It's why you were formed in the first place. But in return we expect SOMETHING. When I saw this video, I was like "Wow... How can this be legal?". I am just super disappointed. There was a time when I thought highly of ZOS as a company. No more. Never again, guys. I am sorry, you have lay inside a coffin and hammered the nails yourselves. Gaining my trust again is gonna be so hard.

Yup its a money grab, plain and simple.

Ilsabet · December 2016

timidobserver wrote: »

I bought 0 and had a 0% success rate. This makes me sad.

I'd say you were 100% successful.

Recremen · December 2016

Rune_Relic wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Rune_Relic wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

If the drop chance of something is 1%, you do not need to buy only 100 gambling boxes to get it. In fact, after 100 boxes you only have a 2/3 chance of getting the item. If you want to get it up to a 99% success chance you'd need to buy 459 gambling boxes. And there's no way to get a 100% success rate, just smaller and smaller chances of failure.

Not sure if I quite agree with that wording. The trials are independent and without memory. There is a 1% chance on the first crate, and a 1% chance on the 459th crate.

No offence but.....can I see the algorithm used ?

@Rune_Relic

The math is from the writeup I did on probability a few months ago. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/288020/math-and-the-great-white-whale-your-guide-to-rng-and-why-you-still-cant-get-the-right-vma-weapon/p1

Feel free to give it a gander.

Yes. Excellent work. Seriously.
But can you show me the algorithm ZOS is using ?

They would have to tell us what it is.

Which is my point.
The numbers are based on the assumption there is a list of 1~x
In that list will be y amount of items as far as @Recremen example is based.

It assumes every players get to pick everything from the list.
Not that the list is in fact shared with other people who remove items from the list.
In effect skipping lines that have already been accessed by others.

There is a big difference between having your own list of items that you increment through and having a shared list of goods that mutiple people increment through.
Hence that person doing 1500 VMA runs and never getting the item wanted.

I mean yeah we could sit here all day and invent gross hellscapes for ourselves, but I think the thrust of the message is that we have no guarantees the process is "equitable", and even if it were, we already know that pure RNG systems are crap and a direct attack on consumers.

Peekachu99 · December 2016

One person's terrible luck (Deltia's) does not a statistic make. I got five Atros from one more pack of crates than him, and even one right after the other.

It's like some of you have no idea what gambling actually is, in it's most entertaining and non-addictive state: it's a fun thing you do when you have a bit of extra money for the thrill of winning (or hilarity of losing). You don't gamble if:

- You have a problem with it.
- You have to choose between food and gambling.
- You don't have fun.

Same reason why people play the lottery and have pretty much no real commitment to winning. It's nice to say to your partner: "When we win our millions..." Then lavish yourselves in fantasy for a while. You play for the thrill, not the result (which can pleasantly surprise you--but don't count on it).

Edit: Has anyone gotten a duplicate Atro, btw? Because all of mine were unique and that seems a statistical anomoly. It's possible they're crossed off the loot list once you get one.

Pathfinder · December 2016

What ZoS has essentially done was to go from giving me a particular mount for X crowns, to giving me a 50% chance to get a particular mount for X crowns. No thanks.