Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Slylok

lehran wrote: »

Didn't quite get to 1200, there seems to be a dearth of crate openings now that the initial "wonder" has passed, but here's an update on my data:

• Total crates: 1164
• Note: Per-crate percentages are listed as X% (Y%) where X% is the theoretical chance based on the per-card rates and Y% is the experimental chance computed by counting how many crates in the dataset contained that property.
• Note: Percentages are rounded to nearest ten-thousandth. Theoretical percentages listed below as 0.0000% are still possible, but have less than a 0.00005% chance of occurring. Experimental percentages listed as 0.0000% are actually 0%.
• Number of each card (normal): Common=2245 Fine=1125 Superior=1112 Epic=95 Legendary=78 Apex=1
• Number of each card (bonus): Common=0 Fine=0 Superior=0 Epic=106 Legendary=49 Apex=40
• Chance of bonus card: 16.7526%
• Chance per card (normal): Common=48.2174% Fine=24.1624% Superior=23.8832% Epic=2.0404% Legendary=1.6753% Apex=0.0215%
• Chance per card (bonus): Epic=54.3590% Legendary=25.1282% Apex=20.5128%
• Chance per crate (number of Common cards): 0=7.1901% (2.5773%) 1=26.7803% (24.0550%) 2=37.4047% (51.2887%) 3=23.2196% (22.0790%) 4=5.4052% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Fine cards): 0=33.0780% (29.5533%) 1=42.1555% (46.7354%) 2=20.1465% (21.2199%) 3=4.2792% (2.4914%) 4=0.3408% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Superior cards): 0=33.5678% (9.7079%) 1=42.1302% (85.0515%) 2=19.8288% (5.2405%) 3=4.1478% (0.0000%) 4=0.3254% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Epic cards): 0=83.6992% (83.9347%) 1=15.3591% (14.9485%) 2=0.9165% (1.0309%) 3=0.0249% (0.0859%) 4=0.0003% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Legendary cards): 0=89.5309% (89.6048%) 1=10.0363% (9.8797%) 2=0.4241% (0.5155%) 3=0.0086% (0.0000%) 4=0.0001% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Apex cards): 0=96.4806% (96.4777%) 1=3.5164% (3.5223%) 2=0.0030% (0.0000%) 3=0.0000% (0.0000%) 4=0.0000% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Common cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=92.8099% (97.4227%) 2=66.0295% (73.3677%) 3=28.6248% (22.0790%) 4=5.4052% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Fine cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=66.9220% (70.4467%) 2=24.7666% (23.7113%) 3=4.6201% (2.4914%) 4=0.3408% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Superior cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=66.4322% (90.2921%) 2=24.3019% (5.2405%) 3=4.4731% (0.0000%) 4=0.3254% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Epic cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=16.3008% (16.0653%) 2=0.9417% (1.1168%) 3=0.0252% (0.0859%) 4=0.0003% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Legendary cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=10.4691% (10.3952%) 2=0.4328% (0.5155%) 3=0.0087% (0.0000%) 4=0.0001% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Apex cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=3.5194% (3.5223%) 2=0.0030% (0.0000%) 3=0.0000% (0.0000%) 4=0.0000% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance to get at least 1 Apex in 15 crates: 41.5393%
• Number of crates to have 50% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 20
• Number of crates to have 75% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 39
• Number of crates to have 90% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 65
• Raw data and script used to generate the above statistics available on GitHub.

As an aside, when everything is unlocked, you average about 15 gems per crate, which is absolutely terrible. Farming up enough gems this season so you can outright buy what you care about next season does not appear to be worthwhile.

I dont mind the crown crates but I think I am done with them at the current ratios , available items and no safety net to protect a person from really bad odds.

An idea could be to have a guarantee over X amount of crates. For each crate you open that does not contain a Legendary / Apex item the odds increase for those cards until you get one ( separate odds ). It should not be possible for someone to gain 400 gems before they get an Apex dealt to them which has happened.

I personally think Poisons and Potions and possibly Food and Drink should be removed from the crates and only be cosmetics , mounts , pets , exp scrolls , motifs etc..

IMO having a safety net over 15 crates will in effect get more players to buy at least the 15 crate pack ( possibly every month ) to get those legendary and apex items. Those that want everything still would buy many many crates. In the end ZOS would pretty much increase the revenue on a per month basis instead of at the beginning of each season getting a surge with it tapering off. Using myself as an example I would in effect be paying a $55 a month sub fee since I would at least buy 1 15 crate pack a month.

Elrond87

someone know, had 40 boxes opened no apex, but enough gems to buy any apex, and didn't get 11 out of the 15 of the legendary rewards, missing 4 epic items out of 15, got 19/19 of the superior rewards and some of each on the fine and common

driosketch

lehran wrote: »

As an aside, when everything is unlocked, you average about 15 gems per crate, which is absolutely terrible. Farming up enough gems this season so you can outright buy what you care about next season does not appear to be worthwhile.

Oh definitely, basically after you have everything, the value per crate is nearly one third. For the collectors, once you have all the items, just stop.

This is also another way the crates hold less value for regular customers who bought many of the items when they were first in the store.

Elusiin

Bought the 4 bundle for 1,500 crowns.

Received the plain wizard hat, khajit stripes, 1 exp scroll, a cheap battlemage costume I had, a cheap pet I had, and the rest were potions.

None of the crates had a 5th card.

Converted all of that(minus the hat and stripes) to gems for a total of: 16 gems

I would say, not worth it, but I understand they need to make money to keep the servers running, so I guess this is okay...? Just no P2W, or I will immediately quit.

Xoz

I bought a total of 62 crown crates- four packs of 15 crates, and then two crates for 400 each (all I could afford with the leftover 800 crowns).

Well, at least, after all of the duplicates and junk item exchanges for gems, I had 500-something crown gems... So, technically you could get whichever storm mount you desire after spending enough cash (but at that point, is it worth it?)

Thought that the amount of junk loot you get is ridiculous though. Definitely not worth it if you're only wanting a storm mount.

By the way, 62 crown crates is equivalent to 20,800 crowns if I remember correctly.

Vulture051

Technically a necro but I figure it's not something that gets less relevant over time. I bought 6 and here's what I got:
Box 1:
Crown Invisibility Potion, Soul Shriven Armour Outfit (heavy), Crown Survivor's Elixir, Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

Box 2:
Helstrom Ancestor Lizard, Crown Survivor's Elixir, Crown Crate Fortifying Meal, Crown Soul Gem

Box 3:
Azure Brow to Temple Circlet, Crown Crate Experience Scroll, Crown Mimic Stone, Crown Spell Caster's Elixir

Box 4:
Crown Survivor's Elixir, Crown Lethal Poison, "Clever Man" Wizard Hat, Crown Survivor's Elixir

Box 5:
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink, Crown Tri-Restoration, Crown Survivor's Elixir, Daedric Scamp

Box 6 with Bonus Card:
Crown Spellcaster Elixir, Crown Lethal Poison, Chub Loon pet, another Soul Shriven Armour Outfit (heavy), Crown Survivor's Elixir


Bonus Item:
A temporary hatred of Khajiit. The dealer's lines are kinda grating and smarmy.

Gems from turning in the consumables
18+5 from copy=23



The boxes are a bit overpriced and does anyone actually used the consumables? I like that you get at least 1 appearance/mount/pet/accountwide item, that's what I'm after. Whether I buy more or not with my sub crowns depends on what is in the next Crown Showcase.

S'virra the Magnificent in her new hat: