Double VMA Loot: Which Weapons Did You Get ?

Ch4mpTW

Run #10
- Maul (Sharpened)
- Bow (Sharpened)

bottleofsyrup

Run #4: Nirnhoned axe and Decisive frost staff (again)

Shader_Shibes

2 runs today so far. 1 sharpened lightning staff - 1 sharpened 1h sword/infused shield - Decisive bow defending 2h axe.

jakeedmundson

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

The only thing this event is actually doing....

Proving without a doubt to many people that the drops are not "random" in vMA.

This weighted drop idea is terrible...

Hey ZOS... running the SAME arena dozens - hundreds of times to get 2 or 3 desired weapons isn't "replay value" or "end game content"... make it so we can actually get the items with good traits ... then we can all get back to enjoying the fun parts of the game with our friends instead of being stuck in this solo content hell that pushes so many people to quit.

Are you afraid we won't run the content if you just give us a good chance of getting the right weapons?... here's an idea... change the traits again in an update... people will go back into vMA and re-farm those weapons (as long as drop rates are reasonable)

that being said.... i ran it 2 and 2/3 times last night (went to bed at stage 6 on my 3rd run)

1st run - gotta love the double resto drops...
precise resto staff (my second one of these)
charged resto staff

2nd run
infused sword and shield (my Nth one of these)
nirnhoned inferno (not a terrible drop but its not something i need)

No it proves without a doubt that many people don't know statistics....

With a 1% chance to get the exact weapon and trait, there's a 36% chance that after 100 runs , you do not get your desired weapon. 13% chance to not get it after 200 runs. In other words, it's NOT 100 runs to get your sharpen dagger or whatever else you look for.

And that's one weapon.

If you knew any statistics, you'd know that if the drop tables were in fact "rigged", you are going to be farming hell of a lot more than few hundred runs......

It's insane to me that people try to defend this ridiculous concept of drop rates.

My first 5 runs went like this....and it didn't get any better down the road either. There are plenty more bows.
1. infused two handed axe
2. nirnhoned bow
3. defending bow
4. defending bow
5. nirnhoned bow
i remember this clearly because of how angry it made me at the time.
lets just stop there at my 5th run and analyze that ....1.04% chance.

If i'm wrong... feel free to correct my numbers... always possible to be thinking about this incorrectly.

Now, similar to rolling a die... but instead of 1/6 lets do 1/96 or 1.04% chance (that's 12 items that can drop each with 8 traits possible... 12 x 8 = 96 possibilities) of getting a bow in defending. (If it is evenly random)

That makes my 3rd and 4th run a pretty rough statistical improbability... 1.04% x 1.04% = 0.0108% chance... literally a 10th of one percent.... ok, lets chalk that up to bad "luck" due to rng... it could happen.

Now lets just look at the chance of getting a bow, regardless of trait... that's 1/12 items right? 8.3% chance each run of having a bow drop... then getting that to drop 4 times straight? Go ahead... roll a 100 sided die and let me know when you roll 37.... four times in a row. i'll wait.
8.3%^4 = That is a staggering 0.0048% chance... that even excludes the same traits.... i must just be lucky... right?

Again, feel free to correct me on my math but this seems pretty straight forward...

And since this isn't uncommon... I feel it is safe to think that there are weights tied to certain drops and traits.
I know for a fact i'm not the only one that sees many, many, many bows... shields.... and resto staffs, not to mention never seeing anything in sharpened yet. Not just from the forums...but friends i play this with have the same issues.

Thoughts? Corrections?

That's not the right math for repeat drops.

If you simply multiply 1.04% by 1.04% for getting two defending bow, which is 0.0108%, what prevents you from doing the same calculation for any other drops? (Because that drop would "reset" and be part of a different line at that point. The 1.04% chance would still be that... 1.04% chance. We were figuring out how to get the EXACT same item multiple times in a row) What if you got, for drop 3 and drop 4, a sharpen axe and a sharpen bow? Or a charged maul and a powered resto? Isn't that still 1.04% by 1.04%? (No, it doesn't work that way.)So you'd say getting any 2 non-repeat weapons is still 0.0108%, a statistical improbability.

The probability of NOT getting a repeat weapon in 5 drops is calculated as such

(100/100)*(99/100)*(98/100).....*(95/100) = 0.86 = 86%

Which means you have a 100% -89%= 14% chance to get a repeat weapon in 5 drops.


Why? Because First weapon can be anything, so the probability is set to 100%. The next weapon can only be 1 of the remaining 99, so it's 99/100. Third one is one of remaining 98 possibilities, and so on.

um... nope. sorry, that's exactly the right math.... you can do your own research on the math of rolling a single die and landing on the same number multiple times (even a quick google search would work)... these drops are exactly the same concept IF they are equal chances of dropping.

but it is absolutely clear to most people that zos' die is weighted to land on a certain number.

EDIT: This conclusion is being made by comparing my shield, resto and bow drops to my destro, 1 handed weapon drops and 2 handed weapon drops.

My shields, restos and bows literally out number the other sets 3 (or 4) to 1 right now. And this event has brought many people out to show their drops.... which are similar to my results.

If you draw 10 cards, what is the probability that you don't draw any repeats?

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1308718/you-have-to-draw-10-cards-what-is-the-probability-you-will-not-drawn-any-repeat

If you don't believe me then see this scenario demonstrated with card draws.

I just substituted 52 cards with 100 weapon combos, and 10 drops with 5. I used the exact same formula.

In short, if you draw cards 10 times from a deck of 52, you have only a 40% chance of not getting repeats.

This is contrary to your logic, which dictates that if you saw the Diamond of Ace twice, that deck is probably rigged, as 1/52 * 1/52 is 1 in more than 2000.

I hope you don't think you are correct while multiple people on a dedicated math forum is wrong..........





I hope you can learn from the link first and now I'll attempt to explain why your dice analogy is wrong.

You can roll numbers 1-6: so each number has 1/6 probability
You roll the dice twice only, to keep things simple
What's the probability that you roll 1 and 1?
1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
What's the probability that you roll 1 and 6?
1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

Because there are 36 permutations, any single permutation has a chance of 1/36, repeat or non-repeat.

Therefore 1/36 does not tell you the chance of getting any repeat rolls. 1/36 is the probability of getting exactly a 1 after a 1.
But we also can also get a 2 after a 2. So the chance of getting ANY repeat roll is NOT 1/36.

How to calculate the chance of getting any repeat rolls in 2 attempts?

Using the formula from the link above, we first calculate the chance of NOT getting repeats rolls.

(6/6) * (5/6) = 5/6 = 83%
This is because for first roll you can roll anything, and for the second roll you must roll one of the 5 remaining numbers.

So the chance of getting a repeat roll (be it a second 1, a second 2, ...or a second 6) is

100% - 83% = 17%

tl;dr If you roll a dice twice, you have a 17% chance of getting ANY repeats (two 1s, two 3s, ...two 6s)

With your logic, you would only see repeat rolls of any kind 1/36 of the time, which is definitely wrong.

I do understand now. I was looking at it the wrong way. Been way too long since my stats classes

BUT....None of this really matters now anyway... look at the charts someone just posted with 500+ drops.

The drops are NOT equal chance... i hope they change something.

ListerJMC

Finally had the time to get a run in:

- Bow (Nirnhoned)
- Greatsword (Infused)

covenant_merchant

Keep dem runs going, guys! I'm updating my table with every relevant item type and trait per run you post.

Maybe 2-3k+ data will trigger ZOS more than 510 runs.

I mean at any rate, I'd even take "heya there, folks. We're aware that the probabilities for item drops aren't the same, but nothing we can or want to do about it. #getrekt and enjoy our Orsinium event". I just want them to be aware of the issues here

At any rate, feel free to keep on posting - Run - item - trait looted or even pm me in-game if you're on PC EU. Or on forums too, if you have multiple runs - items that you can list.

#vmsamatters

Preyfar

I started keeping every VMA weapon after a few runs. So far, I've gotten:

Axe - Precise, Infused, Defending
Dagger - Powered, Decisive
Bow - Powered
Sword - Decisive, Infused
Mace - Decisive
Greatsword - Defending, Charged, Infused
Ice Staff - Precise, Nirnhoned
Inferno Staff - Sharpened, Precise, Powered, Charged
Resto Staff - Sharpened, Precise, Charged, Defending (2X)

There's probably 4 or so other runs I didn't keep gear for before I started keeping everything to track. I was deconning the charged crap since it has zero value.

covenant_merchant

@Preyfar thank you for your contribution, comrade. Truly your loot of a sharpened staff is inspirational and should make us all persevere through this mindless grind.

In the meantime, I'll add your loot to my data.

nordsavage

nordsavage wrote: »

My last 3 runs: Sharpened Ice Staff/Defending Lightning Staff, Sharpened Ice Staff/Defending Lighting Staff, Infused Resto/Precise Resto. Yes that is a double not a typo, so I got a double, double, double. Edited to fix typos ha ha.

My next run was x2 charged bows, so a double, double, double, double then a Sharp Lightning and a resto.

Preyfar

Another run down:
Powered Axe, Nirnhoned Dagger

yotanut

Just completed and got 2 x Bows. I was ecstatic thinking, well one of these has to be sharpened. Both charged. I hate you ZOS.

LeeroyGankins

jakeedmundson wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

jakeedmundson wrote: »

The only thing this event is actually doing....

Proving without a doubt to many people that the drops are not "random" in vMA.

This weighted drop idea is terrible...

Hey ZOS... running the SAME arena dozens - hundreds of times to get 2 or 3 desired weapons isn't "replay value" or "end game content"... make it so we can actually get the items with good traits ... then we can all get back to enjoying the fun parts of the game with our friends instead of being stuck in this solo content hell that pushes so many people to quit.

Are you afraid we won't run the content if you just give us a good chance of getting the right weapons?... here's an idea... change the traits again in an update... people will go back into vMA and re-farm those weapons (as long as drop rates are reasonable)

that being said.... i ran it 2 and 2/3 times last night (went to bed at stage 6 on my 3rd run)

1st run - gotta love the double resto drops...
precise resto staff (my second one of these)
charged resto staff

2nd run
infused sword and shield (my Nth one of these)
nirnhoned inferno (not a terrible drop but its not something i need)

No it proves without a doubt that many people don't know statistics....

With a 1% chance to get the exact weapon and trait, there's a 36% chance that after 100 runs , you do not get your desired weapon. 13% chance to not get it after 200 runs. In other words, it's NOT 100 runs to get your sharpen dagger or whatever else you look for.

And that's one weapon.

If you knew any statistics, you'd know that if the drop tables were in fact "rigged", you are going to be farming hell of a lot more than few hundred runs......

It's insane to me that people try to defend this ridiculous concept of drop rates.

My first 5 runs went like this....and it didn't get any better down the road either. There are plenty more bows.
1. infused two handed axe
2. nirnhoned bow
3. defending bow
4. defending bow
5. nirnhoned bow
i remember this clearly because of how angry it made me at the time.
lets just stop there at my 5th run and analyze that ....1.04% chance.

If i'm wrong... feel free to correct my numbers... always possible to be thinking about this incorrectly.

Now, similar to rolling a die... but instead of 1/6 lets do 1/96 or 1.04% chance (that's 12 items that can drop each with 8 traits possible... 12 x 8 = 96 possibilities) of getting a bow in defending. (If it is evenly random)

That makes my 3rd and 4th run a pretty rough statistical improbability... 1.04% x 1.04% = 0.0108% chance... literally a 10th of one percent.... ok, lets chalk that up to bad "luck" due to rng... it could happen.

Now lets just look at the chance of getting a bow, regardless of trait... that's 1/12 items right? 8.3% chance each run of having a bow drop... then getting that to drop 4 times straight? Go ahead... roll a 100 sided die and let me know when you roll 37.... four times in a row. i'll wait.
8.3%^4 = That is a staggering 0.0048% chance... that even excludes the same traits.... i must just be lucky... right?

Again, feel free to correct me on my math but this seems pretty straight forward...

And since this isn't uncommon... I feel it is safe to think that there are weights tied to certain drops and traits.
I know for a fact i'm not the only one that sees many, many, many bows... shields.... and resto staffs, not to mention never seeing anything in sharpened yet. Not just from the forums...but friends i play this with have the same issues.

Thoughts? Corrections?

That's not the right math for repeat drops.

If you simply multiply 1.04% by 1.04% for getting two defending bow, which is 0.0108%, what prevents you from doing the same calculation for any other drops? (Because that drop would "reset" and be part of a different line at that point. The 1.04% chance would still be that... 1.04% chance. We were figuring out how to get the EXACT same item multiple times in a row) What if you got, for drop 3 and drop 4, a sharpen axe and a sharpen bow? Or a charged maul and a powered resto? Isn't that still 1.04% by 1.04%? (No, it doesn't work that way.)So you'd say getting any 2 non-repeat weapons is still 0.0108%, a statistical improbability.

The probability of NOT getting a repeat weapon in 5 drops is calculated as such

(100/100)*(99/100)*(98/100).....*(95/100) = 0.86 = 86%

Which means you have a 100% -89%= 14% chance to get a repeat weapon in 5 drops.


Why? Because First weapon can be anything, so the probability is set to 100%. The next weapon can only be 1 of the remaining 99, so it's 99/100. Third one is one of remaining 98 possibilities, and so on.

um... nope. sorry, that's exactly the right math.... you can do your own research on the math of rolling a single die and landing on the same number multiple times (even a quick google search would work)... these drops are exactly the same concept IF they are equal chances of dropping.

but it is absolutely clear to most people that zos' die is weighted to land on a certain number.

EDIT: This conclusion is being made by comparing my shield, resto and bow drops to my destro, 1 handed weapon drops and 2 handed weapon drops.

My shields, restos and bows literally out number the other sets 3 (or 4) to 1 right now. And this event has brought many people out to show their drops.... which are similar to my results.

If you draw 10 cards, what is the probability that you don't draw any repeats?

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1308718/you-have-to-draw-10-cards-what-is-the-probability-you-will-not-drawn-any-repeat

If you don't believe me then see this scenario demonstrated with card draws.

I just substituted 52 cards with 100 weapon combos, and 10 drops with 5. I used the exact same formula.

In short, if you draw cards 10 times from a deck of 52, you have only a 40% chance of not getting repeats.

This is contrary to your logic, which dictates that if you saw the Diamond of Ace twice, that deck is probably rigged, as 1/52 * 1/52 is 1 in more than 2000.

I hope you don't think you are correct while multiple people on a dedicated math forum is wrong..........





I hope you can learn from the link first and now I'll attempt to explain why your dice analogy is wrong.

You can roll numbers 1-6: so each number has 1/6 probability
You roll the dice twice only, to keep things simple
What's the probability that you roll 1 and 1?
1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
What's the probability that you roll 1 and 6?
1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

Because there are 36 permutations, any single permutation has a chance of 1/36, repeat or non-repeat.

Therefore 1/36 does not tell you the chance of getting any repeat rolls. 1/36 is the probability of getting exactly a 1 after a 1.
But we also can also get a 2 after a 2. So the chance of getting ANY repeat roll is NOT 1/36.

How to calculate the chance of getting any repeat rolls in 2 attempts?

Using the formula from the link above, we first calculate the chance of NOT getting repeats rolls.

(6/6) * (5/6) = 5/6 = 83%
This is because for first roll you can roll anything, and for the second roll you must roll one of the 5 remaining numbers.

So the chance of getting a repeat roll (be it a second 1, a second 2, ...or a second 6) is

100% - 83% = 17%

tl;dr If you roll a dice twice, you have a 17% chance of getting ANY repeats (two 1s, two 3s, ...two 6s)

With your logic, you would only see repeat rolls of any kind 1/36 of the time, which is definitely wrong.

I do understand now. I was looking at it the wrong way. Been way too long since my stats classes

BUT....None of this really matters now anyway... look at the charts someone just posted with 500+ drops.

The drops are NOT equal chance... i hope they change something.

Ya I saw the chart and I think they could have lumped the weapons into categories so resto staff and bow do end up dropping more. That would explain why fire destro has been most difficult for many people, since there are 3 types of staff, all to drop under the "destro staff" category.

Moltyr

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_GinaBruno


Hi

Apherius

Maesltrom inferno staff in sharpened
Maesltrom mace in sharpened
Maesltrom shiel in well-fited .

Ch4mpTW

Apherius wrote: »

Maesltrom inferno staff in sharpened
Maesltrom mace in sharpened
Maesltrom shiel in well-fited .

@Apherius Most excellent. If I may ask, approximately how many runs of VMA did you do before receiving the inferno staff?

Apherius

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

Apherius wrote: »

Maesltrom inferno staff in sharpened
Maesltrom mace in sharpened
Maesltrom shiel in well-fited .

@Apherius Most excellent. If I may ask, approximately how many runs of VMA did you do before receiving the inferno staff?

i already got it in sharpened 3 times . but i think its my 50 th arena or something else ?

Kratos11911

So far i did quite a few runs since Monday and i only want the sharpened inferno which i havent got yet of course...

Bow: 2x Nirnhoned, Infused, 2x Charged, 2x Defending, 3x Precise, 2x Decisive, 2x Powered
1h Axe: Charged, 2x Sharpened, 2x Precise, Nirnhoned, Infused
Dagger: 3x Decisive, Nirnhoned, Powered, Precise, Sharpened
Mace: Defending, Precise, 2x Charged, Powered, Nirnhoned, Infused
1h Sword: 2x Nirnhoned, 2x Sharpened, Infused, Decisive, Powered, 2x Defending, Charged
Resto: 3x Defending, 2x Precise, 2x Infused, 2x Sharpened, Powered, 2x Nirnhoned, Charged
Lightning: 2x Nirnhoned, Sharpened, Precise, Defending, Charged
Inferno: 2x Precise, Infused, Charged, Decisive
Ice: Nirnhoned, Defending, 2x Decisive, Infused
Greatsword: 2x Defending, Charged, Sharpened, Infused
2h Axe: Precise, Nirnhoned, 2x Charged, Sharpened
Maul: Precise, Infused, Defending
Shield: 17x

And still no Inferno sharpened...

Shader_Shibes

Apherius wrote: »

Maesltrom inferno staff in sharpened
Maesltrom mace in sharpened
Maesltrom shiel in well-fited .

Kratos11911

+ inferno staff nirnhoned and maul precise...

KingYogi415

Is 2 handed maul precise worth using? Or should I hold out for sharpened

Eleusian

Update
2h greatsword sharpened
S&B
Next run
Both S&B

f047ys3v3n

Charged lighting stave
Nirnhoned resto

Infused bow
Charged mace / impen sheild

Powered resto (I prefer my resto's defending and the vMA resto isn't going to replace my vDSA one anyway so pffffft on this)
Infused mace / impen sheild

Thanks for compiling the table by the way. I really don't think that it will enlighten ZOS any as they, presumably, know what is dropping. However, it will help people decide how much effort they want to invest in content with such low rng but with such epic gear. For my part, after getting my staff I was pretty stoked and started to run the thing on a loop mostly because such good feelings were associated with it. Haven't gotten anything since so my enthusiasm is fading. Feel overall better than I ever have over my gear though. vMA is just very hard to keep excited about as the rewards are so few and far between. Maybe they should throw in some undaunted plunder or Worthgar motifs to sweeten the deal. Or they could just give us the sharpened weapons at a decent rate.

I have the runs down to just over an hour a run and about 6 or so deaths on average though. Man, you guys on that leaderboard have some fine runs. Mine feel pretty good and I'm not even close. For the moment I'm going to just accept that and eat sigals like their free and do the thing as quickly as possible.

ArvenAldmeri

In 2 runs I got 3 resto staves and bow... nirn, powered, precise and decisive... Seriosly though. 3 resto staves. In 2 runs...

Wers

I run 19 times or so before the event and all others run with 2 drops, so this is my statistic:

1. Bow Nirn
2. Mace Decisive
3. Axe Sharpened
4. Bow Infused
5. Maul Decisive
6. Lightning staff sharpened
7. Battle axe Defending
8. Dagger Powered
9. Bow infused
10. Maul Decisive
11. Resto staff Charged
12. Resto staff Precised
13. Ice stuff Infused
14. Resto staff Nirn
15. Mace Sharpened
16. Axe Infused
17. Resto staff Nirn
18. Resto staff Infused
19. Lightning staff Infused

Now Double drops
20. Bow Infused
21. Bow Powered
22. Axe Charged
23. Axe Charged
24. Bow Nirn
25. Ice staff Nirn
26. Bow Infused
27. Bow Defending
28. Axe Sharpened
29. Lightning staff Powered
30. Dagger Defending
31. Greatsword Nirn
32. Axe Sharpened
33. Bow Nirn
34. Dagger Sharpened
35. Resto staff Powered
36. Bow Defending
37. Lightning staff Defending
38. Mace Sharpened
39. Bow Powered
40. Inferno staff Infused (First drop!!! in 40 times!!!)
41. Ice staff Defending
42. Bow Charged
43. Sword Nirn
44. Mace Sharpened
45. Restostaff Powered

So i've got
Inferno - 1 (crap trait)
Ice - 3 (crap traits)
Lightning - 4 (1 sharpened)
Resto - 7 (all traits)
Bow - 12 (and no sharpened at all!!!)
Axe - 6 (3 sharpened)
Mace - 4 (3 sharpened)
Sword - 1
Battle axe - 3
Maul - 2
Dagger - 2 (1 sharpened)

I'm agree with traits chance, i've got 8 sharpened items, its 18%, but all i need is Inferno sharpened, only 1 item from all this crap and i had only 1 in 45 drops, it's a 2% chance and 1/8 can be sharpened, so i need about 400 more drops. Really!? I'm so tired of this content and about to quit already, cose it's SO UNFAIR! I like this game, it's awesome, but i can't farm it so long for an item, that can open door to the high end content to me... I'm not angry already, i just dissapointed so much.

Meld777

@Wers

12 weapons, 6 categories (Resto, Bow, Destro, 1h/s, 2h melee, 1h). Destro category has 3 items (each category has an equal chance of drop). So the chance to get an Inferno staff is 1/18 = 5%. There is also 8 traits, so it's it's a (1/18)*(1/8) = 1/144 = 0.6% chance to get a Sharpened Inferno staff. Don't underestimate that chance. It's pretty f'ing small! Two weeks of farming will not get you there. But half a year+, maybe. A year of farming didn't get me there. I don't have my Sharpened Inferno either (400+ runs). But I understand I'm a minority and on average, most people will have their Inferno in under 300 runs. But you need to understand that there is no guarantee. You might be one of those that don't get it in 1000+ runs.

wellerrocks

Past 3 runs, double shield and sword.

Resto and shields have stupidly high drop rates...

Preyfar

kasa-obake wrote: »

@Preyfar thank you for your contribution, comrade. Truly your loot of a sharpened staff is inspirational and should make us all persevere through this mindless grind.

When I got the sharpened staff the first thing I did was say "Well. It DOES exist!" ZOS could fix the VMA loot table just by removing Charged from the drop list, and it would raise the chance to get everything else a decent amount -- especially since Charged doesn't do anything on a VMA weapon. It's literally like looting a traitless item.

Adding 2 more items:
Decisive Bow
Nirnhoned Ice Staff

Cplpackb14_ESO

Decisive resto staff, charged one hand sword with a reinforced shield

Jurand80

#1 run ever
dagger sharpened
bow defending

Kratos11911

+ Resto Charged and Resto Precise...