The Tale of 1000 Crates and the Missing Plague Husk Horse

Peekachu99

1130ish, actually, give or take a few. The dollar cost can be reasonably extracted from that data, though I had 30K crowns left over from the sale.

Before the usual guffaws and ridicule, a couple of things to note: I had a surplus of disposable income from my tax returns, I am generally in a healthy financial position, I regularly contribute to charities and lend my time at a soup kitchen on Christmas (though in all honesty missed last year), and I am aware of the perils and payouts of gambling (which these crates are and should therefor be subject to the same laws as are found in China now).

Anyway, I had the money and my life-commitments were all taken care of (home, family, food and shelter), so I decided to go full Moby *** and grab that elusive "rare" apex mount: the Plague Husk Horse. Needless to say, I acquired every single item on the list but that mount. Do I find it strange that a number of low CP players with gibberish names were running around the capital cities with their glowing ghastly mount on the free crate day? Indeed, the cynic in me wonders what tactics are in play behind the scenes, and if/ how accounts are treated differently based on spending (spend less, here's a cool mount to incentivize you to spend more). The truth is, we really know nothing about how these crates work, and the crate-logger, while a great addon, doesn't factor in the unseen variables that can be adjusted upon a whim without our knowing.

Am I defeated? Not really, though I will never whale in this game or spend a cent on crates again, I can tell you that. Apparently my catastrophic unluckiness (and a missing crate, which just opened, hung the screen and gave me nothing) was worthy of further escalation and investigation by whatever team handles these things, though that email exchange was days ago and I haven't heard a peep from support since (nor do I expect to). The moral of the story, and what everyone should learn is that your chances of obtaining the super rare mounts are a.) entirely minuscule and random b.) influenced by factors outside your control.

You're better off taking your three free crates each season and being happy with what you're given. Crowns are certainly better spent on items you are guaranteed to receive. I guess the one positive is that I now have enough gems to purchase anything and everything I could ever want from the crates for the next two years or longer (no-chance-in-Hell mounts and glowing sweetrolls notwithstanding.)

And, importantly, I have a cautionary tale to share with the community.



P.S. I think that in moving forward, ZoS and the community should look toward the mechanisms present in most decent gatcha games: cost triggers whereby something rare is simply given; hugely expensive costs for the "rare" apex mounts, something. As it is the relationship between these crates and the consumer is hostile to toxic, and the general attitude toward them worsens each season, which in turn makes ZoS up the ante, perpetuating a cycle of repulsion. Warframe, GranBlue Fantasy, Overwatch...There are many examples of better cosmetic cash shop boxes to follow.

ValkynSketha

WTF.com.net.edu.org.WTF

JasonSilverSpring

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

Everstorm

After the two dozen nix hounds I got last time I'm done with crates. RNG taints almost everything in ESO.

Tyrion87

Did you actually say that you bought over 1000 crates to get a mount? I got headache when I read this... 1000 crates?! 1000?!

You just proved that Zeni's filthy idea regarding crates is a financial success for them, and a massive loss for us, players. GZ!

AlienSlof

Unfortunately, disposable income or not, you're telling ZOS that the crate model is working. Every big purchase of them like that is ensuring that they're here to stay.

I don't begrudge you the funds, you earned them fairly, but it does send the message that the crates are working as intended. If not a single person bought them, they'd go back to direct purchases.

Peekachu99

AlienSlof wrote: »

Unfortunately, disposable income or not, you're telling ZOS that the crate model is working. Every big purchase of them like that is ensuring that they're here to stay.

I don't begrudge you the funds, you earned them fairly, but it does send the message that the crates are working as intended. If not a single person bought them, they'd go back to direct purchases.

Models like this don’t work, though. Whales just reallocate their spending to a more rewarding game. I’ve gone back to Warframe, for example, and can quite safely say I will never spend a dollar on this game again. It’s not a working model if there’s no retention.

AzraelKrieg

Someone get this man a priest. Sheogorath has clearly taken over his mind.

Peekachu99

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

The presumption that companies do not manipulate the odds and employ sock puppet marketing tactics for something that is entirely unregulated is frankly naive.

AlienSlof

Peekachu99 wrote: »

Models like this don’t work, though. Whales just reallocate their spending to a more rewarding game. I’ve gone back to Warframe, for example, and can quite safely say I will never spend a dollar on this game again. It’s not a working model if there’s no retention.

I agree. Gamble crates are just rotten to the core and kill games like a disease.

JasonSilverSpring

Peekachu99 wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

The presumption that companies do not manipulate the odds and employ sock puppet marketing tactics for something that is entirely unregulated is frankly naive.

I just fail to see any moreover or benefit for ZOS. Lots of people got garbage for their free crates and some got very lucky. Obviously the crates are profitable; what is gained by spending more resources on some targeted algorithm to manipulate the odds? It just seems a bit of time foil hat-ish to me.

Peekachu99

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

Peekachu99 wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

The presumption that companies do not manipulate the odds and employ sock puppet marketing tactics for something that is entirely unregulated is frankly naive.

I just fail to see any moreover or benefit for ZOS. Lots of people got garbage for their free crates and some got very lucky. Obviously the crates are profitable; what is gained by spending more resources on some targeted algorithm to manipulate the odds? It just seems a bit of time foil hat-ish to me.

There’s nothing tin-foil about it, these are common marketing tactics employed in regulated industries. Why would the unregulated sectors not do the same? Out of the goodness of their hearts? I’m just being a realist, not a conspiracist.

Edit:

https://www.inc.com/john-hall/9-marketing-tactics-to-plan-for-in-2016.html

“Marketing A.I. and Behavior Driven Messaging/ Purchasing”. Examine what you think that means behind the scenes and how it’s being used. They do indeed have algorithms behind the RNG.

UnseenCat

In other news, I didn't get a single nix hound in my free crates. Now we know where the RNG might have sent them...

reiverx

Excluding items from being gem purchasable was a sleazy move by ZOS, but I think we're all mostly numb to their antics by now. They have no respect for their customers.

Games companies are exploiting the lack of up to date gambling laws in the industry.

zaria

Peekachu99 wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

The presumption that companies do not manipulate the odds and employ sock puppet marketing tactics for something that is entirely unregulated is frankly naive.

How do you trick the crate logger?
Problem here is very low drop chance as in 0.17%, average to get the horse is 588 crates, using 1000 is a bit bad luck but more likely than rolling an dice and getting 1 or 2.

Peekachu99

UnseenCat wrote: »

In other news, I didn't get a single nix hound in my free crates. Now we know where the RNG might have sent them...

I’ve started a nix hound sanctuary, and single handedly saved the population from any threat of extinction. Ever. In like a million years.

Peekachu99

zaria wrote: »

Peekachu99 wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

You bought a lot of crates and were not lucky enough to get the one extremely rare prize you wanted. The crate logger shows that it is extremely rare drop. Agree with the tactic or not based on the many people I see using pets and mounts from the crates, it is likely profitable for ZOS.

I fail to get all the theories that they are rigged just because someone else got super lucky. A lot of people got free crates. With such a large sample size it is reasonable that some would hit the jackpot. Though I have yet to see one of the 3 rare mounts in the game. I guess I am unlucky there too.

The presumption that companies do not manipulate the odds and employ sock puppet marketing tactics for something that is entirely unregulated is frankly naive.

How do you trick the crate logger?
Problem here is very low drop chance as in 0.17%, average to get the horse is 588 crates, using 1000 is a bit bad luck but more likely than rolling an dice and getting 1 or 2.

The crate logger only measures the result; it does not record or understand the algorithms and mechanics behind that result.

Storymaster

AzraelKrieg wrote: »

Someone get this man a priest. Sheogorath has clearly taken over his mind.

"Me never laid a hand on 'im!"

ThePrinceOfBargains

Here we go again; it’s always someone. Are you at least aware of how absurd it is for you to spend that much money gambling on microtransactions? Or are you delusional and think this is perfectly reasonable? I mean did you not see the topic from that other idiot that did this exact same thing for the Adamant Horse and didn’t get it? Those mounts are designed for you to not get them. At the very least, you managed to fill their quota of getting at least one person to do this every season.

Peekachu99

TheMaster wrote: »

Here we go again; it’s always someone. Are you at least aware of how absurd it is for you to spend that much money gambling on microtransactions? Or are you delusional and think this is perfectly reasonable? I mean did you not see the topic from that other idiot that did this exact same thing for the Adamant Horse and didn’t get it? Those mounts are designed for you to not get them. At the very least, you managed to fill their quota of getting at least one person to do this every season.

How is this any more absurd than gambling at a casino? I’ve done that a couple of times and I go in with a set amount and no expectations of winning anything. Keep your value judgements and calling of people “idiots” to yourself. I’m not asking for pity, merely sharing my experience with the community.

Zbigb4life

Peekachu99 wrote: »

1130ish, actually, give or take a few. The dollar cost can be reasonably extracted from that data, though I had 30K crowns left over from the sale.

Before the usual guffaws and ridicule, a couple of things to note: I had a surplus of disposable income from my tax returns, I am generally in a healthy financial position, I regularly contribute to charities and lend my time at a soup kitchen on Christmas (though in all honesty missed last year), and I am aware of the perils and payouts of gambling (which these crates are and should therefor be subject to the same laws as are found in China now).

Anyway, I had the money and my life-commitments were all taken care of (home, family, food and shelter), so I decided to go full Moby *** and grab that elusive "rare" apex mount: the Plague Husk Horse. Needless to say, I acquired every single item on the list but that mount. Do I find it strange that a number of low CP players with gibberish names were running around the capital cities with their glowing ghastly mount on the free crate day? Indeed, the cynic in me wonders what tactics are in play behind the scenes, and if/ how accounts are treated differently based on spending (spend less, here's a cool mount to incentivize you to spend more). The truth is, we really know nothing about how these crates work, and the crate-logger, while a great addon, doesn't factor in the unseen variables that can be adjusted upon a whim without our knowing.

Am I defeated? Not really, though I will never whale in this game or spend a cent on crates again, I can tell you that. Apparently my catastrophic unluckiness (and a missing crate, which just opened, hung the screen and gave me nothing) was worthy of further escalation and investigation by whatever team handles these things, though that email exchange was days ago and I haven't heard a peep from support since (nor do I expect to). The moral of the story, and what everyone should learn is that your chances of obtaining the super rare mounts are a.) entirely minuscule and random b.) influenced by factors outside your control.

You're better off taking your three free crates each season and being happy with what you're given. Crowns are certainly better spent on items you are guaranteed to receive. I guess the one positive is that I now have enough gems to purchase anything and everything I could ever want from the crates for the next two years or longer (no-chance-in-Hell mounts and glowing sweetrolls notwithstanding.)

And, importantly, I have a cautionary tale to share with the community.



P.S. I think that in moving forward, ZoS and the community should look toward the mechanisms present in most decent gatcha games: cost triggers whereby something rare is simply given; hugely expensive costs for the "rare" apex mounts, something. As it is the relationship between these crates and the consumer is hostile to toxic, and the general attitude toward them worsens each season, which in turn makes ZoS up the ante, perpetuating a cycle of repulsion. Warframe, GranBlue Fantasy, Overwatch...There are many examples of better cosmetic cash shop boxes to follow.

Only 1 advice: don't gamble anymore

Taylor_MB

1130 crown crates

15 crates for 5000 crowns = 376,666.666 crowns

-30,000 that you already had = 346,666.666

21,000 crown pack costs $184.95 AUD (using my currency for easy reference)

So 346,666.666 crowns = $2,458.86 AUD

---

= $1,912.01 USD

---

For comparison, that equates to 12 years and 3 months worth of subscription; ZoS got a great deal out of your purchases.




*(slightly off depending on what conversion rate ZoS uses)

Tyrion87

Peekachu99 wrote: »

TheMaster wrote: »

Here we go again; it’s always someone. Are you at least aware of how absurd it is for you to spend that much money gambling on microtransactions? Or are you delusional and think this is perfectly reasonable? I mean did you not see the topic from that other idiot that did this exact same thing for the Adamant Horse and didn’t get it? Those mounts are designed for you to not get them. At the very least, you managed to fill their quota of getting at least one person to do this every season.

How is this any more absurd than gambling at a casino? I’ve done that a couple of times and I go in with a set amount and no expectations of winning anything. Keep your value judgements and calling of people “idiots” to yourself. I’m not asking for pity, merely sharing my experience with the community.

I would say: in a casino you can win more money, if you get lucky. With crates, you just lose money, even if you're lucky.

idk

I only have one thing to say. OMG, 1000+ crates. Even with crowns on sale that is a lot of crowns.

Peekachu99

Tyrion87 wrote: »

Peekachu99 wrote: »

TheMaster wrote: »

Here we go again; it’s always someone. Are you at least aware of how absurd it is for you to spend that much money gambling on microtransactions? Or are you delusional and think this is perfectly reasonable? I mean did you not see the topic from that other idiot that did this exact same thing for the Adamant Horse and didn’t get it? Those mounts are designed for you to not get them. At the very least, you managed to fill their quota of getting at least one person to do this every season.

How is this any more absurd than gambling at a casino? I’ve done that a couple of times and I go in with a set amount and no expectations of winning anything. Keep your value judgements and calling of people “idiots” to yourself. I’m not asking for pity, merely sharing my experience with the community.

I would say: in a casino you can win more money, if you get lucky. With crates, you just lose money, even if you're lucky.

Except I’m satisfied with the digital goodies and sheer amount of seasonal currency I have. I just find it odd that the plague horse was so elusive.

andreasv

All that disposable income and you can't even "Update Your Account to Enable 3rd Party Hosting".

Peekachu99

andreasv wrote: »

All that disposable income and you can't even "Update Your Account to Enable 3rd Party Hosting".

This is like the only forum on Earrh that doesn’t allow direct uploading of images, and as I’ve said, I’m not spending another cent on ESO (or its affiliated forum)

Taylor_MB

Peekachu99 wrote: »

andreasv wrote: »

All that disposable income and you can't even "Update Your Account to Enable 3rd Party Hosting".

This is like the only forum on Earrh that doesn’t allow direct uploading of images, and as I’ve said, I’m not spending another cent on ESO (or its affiliated forum)

It's photobucket, not the forums. Just move to Imgur, I switched over from PB a while ago and the improvement (responsive site, fast upload times) was immense.

vamp_emily

That is just crazy, buying 1000 crates to get a mount. I really wish some origination would look into this kind of trashy scram that gaming companies are doing.

If i had money to throw away like that, I would have just bought stock in amazon or google and let it ride.

I personally didn't even care about the free crates during the last event. I ended up getting 2 because I killed 2 trial bosses other than that I just played PvP.

SantieClaws

Khajiit would ask you to do a couple of things next time the crates have a new season yes - if you would.

Ask yourself if you need, really need, not want, another mount when you can ride only one.

Find a charity or person out there who needs, really needs something basic and decent that you have every day.

Then give them at least some of the money you would have spent on the crates yes. Then every time you think about the mount you don't have you can think about the much better thing you did instead of buying so many crates perhaps.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

Peekachu99

SantieClaws wrote: »

Khajiit would ask you to do a couple of things next time the crates have a new season yes - if you would.

Ask yourself if you need, really need, not want, another mount when you can ride only one.

Find a charity or person out there who needs, really needs something basic and decent that you have every day.

Then give them at least some of the money you would have spent on the crates yes. Then every time you think about the mount you don't have you can think about the much better thing you did instead of buying so many crates perhaps.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

As stated in my OP, I regularly give both time and money to charities. Really, this was a splurge and one with interesting results. I will also not be contributing to the crown store or subscription services of this shame any longer—so there’s more money to go to other causes.

Edit: “shame” > game. But I think the typo is apt and rather hilarious.