What do you think of Crown Store Random boxes/Lottery box?

JD2013

No I dislike the random crown store boxes, to much of a gamble

Lysette wrote: »

JD2013 wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Dromede wrote: »

Hand_Bacon wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

I do not even have a clue what you mean by card game packs - I am not a gambler - the only card game I play is Qwen in Witcher 3 and not because I would like it, but to make people more likely to give me information and hints.

Hearthstone, Magic the Gathering, ESO's own card game, Pokemon to name a few. You buy packs of cards for real money and there is a chance for a rare or legendary like card, but most of the time there is just crap or cards you already have. I don't see that as any different from the RNG loot boxes. Most of the time you'll get crap, but there is always a chance.

As invested i am in ES series, i'm absolutely not interested in an ES card game - i even got an invitation to alpha only to ignore it.

This kind of games sounds terrible - it's a p2w straight up just by the nature of it. They already have a cash shop as far as i know - and so do most card games, no matter how good or bad they are.

I'm not particularly addictive, but i'd never play those games because they are an open trap. I used to though - but now i know better.

Even though i voted a technical yes in this poll, i see a very distinctive line on the rng box issue. The second they introduce something more significant than just a costume or a mount, i'm out. Because i'm a human, and there are things that i can resist (skins and mounts), and there are things that i can't (like an equivalent of a vma weapon in shiny box all without a grind to keep your character viable for endgame). I'm not planning to acquire addiction over a video game.

It's a game, and i'd like to play without a credit card in my hands.

P.S. eso+ and crown purchaser. No freeloading mentality here

The same, ironically. I literally have plastic boxes filled with physical cards under my desk at this moment. I've been a huge fan of CCGs for 20 years. I got the invite for Legends... and... kinda failed to have any interest in it.

If I want to play a game like this, I fire up Witcher 3 and play a round of Qwen in an inn and good - I do not need to pay real money to have a game similar to those.

Gwent is awesome. I love Gwent and The Witcher 3.

Ah yes, Gwent - I knew something is wrong with Qwen - that is the name of the girl introducing one to the TG in ESO - my bad.

I've mixed them two up IRL and called it "kwen" once ... lol. I'm kinda special sometimes

Lysette

No, don't ever add these into the game.

starkerealm wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Dromede wrote: »

Hand_Bacon wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

I do not even have a clue what you mean by card game packs - I am not a gambler - the only card game I play is Qwen in Witcher 3 and not because I would like it, but to make people more likely to give me information and hints.

Hearthstone, Magic the Gathering, ESO's own card game, Pokemon to name a few. You buy packs of cards for real money and there is a chance for a rare or legendary like card, but most of the time there is just crap or cards you already have. I don't see that as any different from the RNG loot boxes. Most of the time you'll get crap, but there is always a chance.

As invested i am in ES series, i'm absolutely not interested in an ES card game - i even got an invitation to alpha only to ignore it.

This kind of games sounds terrible - it's a p2w straight up just by the nature of it. They already have a cash shop as far as i know - and so do most card games, no matter how good or bad they are.

I'm not particularly addictive, but i'd never play those games because they are an open trap. I used to though - but now i know better.

Even though i voted a technical yes in this poll, i see a very distinctive line on the rng box issue. The second they introduce something more significant than just a costume or a mount, i'm out. Because i'm a human, and there are things that i can resist (skins and mounts), and there are things that i can't (like an equivalent of a vma weapon in shiny box all without a grind to keep your character viable for endgame). I'm not planning to acquire addiction over a video game.

It's a game, and i'd like to play without a credit card in my hands.

P.S. eso+ and crown purchaser. No freeloading mentality here

The same, ironically. I literally have plastic boxes filled with physical cards under my desk at this moment. I've been a huge fan of CCGs for 20 years. I got the invite for Legends... and... kinda failed to have any interest in it.

If I want to play a game like this, I fire up Witcher 3 and play a round of Qwen in an inn and good - I do not need to pay real money to have a game similar to those.

I like physical cards, against a living opponent. I wouldn't have the huge collection of Magic: The Gathering if I didn't. But, even there, I got out because Wizards just got too grabby over the years. Mostly I stick with the FFG games these days. They're way cheaper to collect.

You collect your deck of cards in that game as well, it is part of your adventure to look for where you might find cards for your deck - Gwent is a great game, simple from it's concepts but with a nice strategical component, I like it a lot.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Dromede wrote: »

Hand_Bacon wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

I do not even have a clue what you mean by card game packs - I am not a gambler - the only card game I play is Qwen in Witcher 3 and not because I would like it, but to make people more likely to give me information and hints.

Hearthstone, Magic the Gathering, ESO's own card game, Pokemon to name a few. You buy packs of cards for real money and there is a chance for a rare or legendary like card, but most of the time there is just crap or cards you already have. I don't see that as any different from the RNG loot boxes. Most of the time you'll get crap, but there is always a chance.

As invested i am in ES series, i'm absolutely not interested in an ES card game - i even got an invitation to alpha only to ignore it.

This kind of games sounds terrible - it's a p2w straight up just by the nature of it. They already have a cash shop as far as i know - and so do most card games, no matter how good or bad they are.

I'm not particularly addictive, but i'd never play those games because they are an open trap. I used to though - but now i know better.

Even though i voted a technical yes in this poll, i see a very distinctive line on the rng box issue. The second they introduce something more significant than just a costume or a mount, i'm out. Because i'm a human, and there are things that i can resist (skins and mounts), and there are things that i can't (like an equivalent of a vma weapon in shiny box all without a grind to keep your character viable for endgame). I'm not planning to acquire addiction over a video game.

It's a game, and i'd like to play without a credit card in my hands.

P.S. eso+ and crown purchaser. No freeloading mentality here

The same, ironically. I literally have plastic boxes filled with physical cards under my desk at this moment. I've been a huge fan of CCGs for 20 years. I got the invite for Legends... and... kinda failed to have any interest in it.

If I want to play a game like this, I fire up Witcher 3 and play a round of Qwen in an inn and good - I do not need to pay real money to have a game similar to those.

I like physical cards, against a living opponent. I wouldn't have the huge collection of Magic: The Gathering if I didn't. But, even there, I got out because Wizards just got too grabby over the years. Mostly I stick with the FFG games these days. They're way cheaper to collect.

You collect your deck of cards in that game as well, it is part of your adventure to look for where you might find cards for your deck - Gwent is a great game, simple from it's concepts but with a nice strategical component, I like it a lot.

No, I know. I've got a deathmarch game where I was grabbing all the cards as I went. I've got some design gripes with Gwent, it's not a perfect CCG by any means. It's actually one that would be vastly better served as a physical game,(which CD Projekt is actually making), since a lot of the actual depth comes from reading your opponent (which isn't possible with The Witcher's Gwent UI).

Elsonso

Yes I like the random boxes idea so Long as they only have cosmetics

Lylith wrote: »

just remember, the house always wins.

I killed House and took over his casino.

Oh... the house.

Nevermind.

Lysette wrote: »

I will give another example to show, why ZOS is pushing this forward - I will again use a 5% chance to win something and I will for the sake of simplicity assume a crowd of 3000 people who buy 14 boxes each to have a 50% chance to win anything. So let's see how this turns out:

1500 of these people will not win anything - that is the flip coin chance which comes with those 14 boxes gone wrong.
1000 will have won 1 item (it is always about 1/3 which is near to the "average")
500 will have won more than 1 item (2.2 in average)

ZOS would have to give out 14x3000x0.05 = 2100 special items. They got from box sales 14x3000x400 = 16.8 million crowns and this means that they made in average 8000 crowns with every special item they had to give out - voila profit like never before - and this already with 5% chance - it will most likely be much less what they offer and this is why they do this.

I was completely unable to follow this.

Lysette wrote: »

The problem I see with this move to RNG boxes is, that the temptation for ZOS is high to focus on exclusive items for the boxes instead to bring large DLCs - why would they bother with a large DLC, which they might be able to sell for 4000 crowns, if they can just sell any item they had so far - from 400 crowns to 4500 crowns, for an average price of 8000 crowns via those boxes

I will say again. No one (in this discussion) picks the MMO they are going to play because of the lucky bags in the store. The cash shop does not bring in players. Focusing on the cash store is a death spiral. They need to have the DLC and new content to bring players in, otherwise there is no one new to sell lucky bags to.

ADarklore wrote: »

59 pages and still NOTHING from ZOS even acknowledging the results of this thread! Instead we get the 'recap' announcement which includes references to the 'lottery boxes'. Yeah, ZOS listens to their players... RIGHT. Apparently only when it's financially convenient to 'listen'.

Did you notice that the recap did not mention exclusive crate contents? Firor mentioned it, and used the word 'exclusive'. The recap does not. Of course, failure to mention it does not mean it won't happen.

An alternative is to have the new "seasonal" extremely rare items in the Crown Store for a brief limited time at a high price, but have them available in the crate for the entire season. In this way, they are not exclusive to the crate, but you have to be there when they are on sale, or else.

Aside: Also, ZOS, please... can you come up with a better name than "Crown Crate". Sheesh. When the Creative People in the studio get back from vacation, yer gonna get yelled at.

starkerealm wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.

Yeah, and the skeletal mounts were first datamined before that post was made. Meaning, the boxes were already in the works back then. She actually lied to us. I see how they can weasel out, she said, "locked" boxes, but they were lying.

What is this about the Skeletal Mounts all of a sudden. I fail to see the connection between a crappy skeleton mount and these boxes such that one predicts the other. This sounds like something you just invented.

Lysette

No, don't ever add these into the game.

starkerealm wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Dromede wrote: »

Hand_Bacon wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

I do not even have a clue what you mean by card game packs - I am not a gambler - the only card game I play is Qwen in Witcher 3 and not because I would like it, but to make people more likely to give me information and hints.

Hearthstone, Magic the Gathering, ESO's own card game, Pokemon to name a few. You buy packs of cards for real money and there is a chance for a rare or legendary like card, but most of the time there is just crap or cards you already have. I don't see that as any different from the RNG loot boxes. Most of the time you'll get crap, but there is always a chance.

As invested i am in ES series, i'm absolutely not interested in an ES card game - i even got an invitation to alpha only to ignore it.

This kind of games sounds terrible - it's a p2w straight up just by the nature of it. They already have a cash shop as far as i know - and so do most card games, no matter how good or bad they are.

I'm not particularly addictive, but i'd never play those games because they are an open trap. I used to though - but now i know better.

Even though i voted a technical yes in this poll, i see a very distinctive line on the rng box issue. The second they introduce something more significant than just a costume or a mount, i'm out. Because i'm a human, and there are things that i can resist (skins and mounts), and there are things that i can't (like an equivalent of a vma weapon in shiny box all without a grind to keep your character viable for endgame). I'm not planning to acquire addiction over a video game.

It's a game, and i'd like to play without a credit card in my hands.

P.S. eso+ and crown purchaser. No freeloading mentality here

The same, ironically. I literally have plastic boxes filled with physical cards under my desk at this moment. I've been a huge fan of CCGs for 20 years. I got the invite for Legends... and... kinda failed to have any interest in it.

If I want to play a game like this, I fire up Witcher 3 and play a round of Qwen in an inn and good - I do not need to pay real money to have a game similar to those.

I like physical cards, against a living opponent. I wouldn't have the huge collection of Magic: The Gathering if I didn't. But, even there, I got out because Wizards just got too grabby over the years. Mostly I stick with the FFG games these days. They're way cheaper to collect.

You collect your deck of cards in that game as well, it is part of your adventure to look for where you might find cards for your deck - Gwent is a great game, simple from it's concepts but with a nice strategical component, I like it a lot.

No, I know. I've got a deathmarch game where I was grabbing all the cards as I went. I've got some design gripes with Gwent, it's not a perfect CCG by any means. It's actually one that would be vastly better served as a physical game,(which CD Projekt is actually making), since a lot of the actual depth comes from reading your opponent (which isn't possible with The Witcher's Gwent UI).

I did not know these kind of card games before Fallout New Vegas actually - had a hard time to find into playing "Caravan" there, but started to like it after a while.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

lordrichter wrote: »

Lylith wrote: »

just remember, the house always wins.

I killed House and took over his casino.

Oh... the house.

Nevermind.

The nine irony.

lordrichter wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.

Yeah, and the skeletal mounts were first datamined before that post was made. Meaning, the boxes were already in the works back then. She actually lied to us. I see how they can weasel out, she said, "locked" boxes, but they were lying.

What is this about the Skeletal Mounts all of a sudden. I fail to see the connection between a crappy skeleton mount and these boxes such that one predicts the other. This sounds like something you just invented.

A little over a year ago, the data miners came back with, "hey, there's a skeletal guar, skeletal bear, skeletal senche, and skeletal horse," in the works. You can dig around and find this if you want. The earliest references I can find off hand date back to early July 2015. Though it might have been mined in late June.

Much more recently, we've gotten datamined mount sets called "wild hunt," (think Spriggan style) and " attronach" (stone-ish looking with lightning cores). Again, same set up, four variants.

These are distinct, because (to the best of my knowledge) no other mount sets like this have been released or announced, where the same mount aesthetic spread across four different mount types.

So, here's the only leap. One of the videos apparently identified the skeletal mounts as the first set of prize tier mounts. (I didn't catch this, so if you want to find the source of that claim and ask them what they're basing that on, feel free.) If true, then that means the lock boxes were already in the works 15 months ago.

Which makes sense, because the lag between Hew's Bane, Orsinium was close to that, and we're still waiting on stuff like Murkmire.

But, it also means, the boxes were in development when Gina made that post, which if reddit is to be believed was sometime in late July or August, going by their "a year ago" timestamp.

Lysette

No, don't ever add these into the game.

lordrichter wrote: »

Lylith wrote: »

just remember, the house always wins.

I killed House and took over his casino.

Oh... the house.

Nevermind.

Lysette wrote: »

I will give another example to show, why ZOS is pushing this forward - I will again use a 5% chance to win something and I will for the sake of simplicity assume a crowd of 3000 people who buy 14 boxes each to have a 50% chance to win anything. So let's see how this turns out:

1500 of these people will not win anything - that is the flip coin chance which comes with those 14 boxes gone wrong.
1000 will have won 1 item (it is always about 1/3 which is near to the "average")
500 will have won more than 1 item (2.2 in average)

ZOS would have to give out 14x3000x0.05 = 2100 special items. They got from box sales 14x3000x400 = 16.8 million crowns and this means that they made in average 8000 crowns with every special item they had to give out - voila profit like never before - and this already with 5% chance - it will most likely be much less what they offer and this is why they do this.

I was completely unable to follow this.

Lysette wrote: »

The problem I see with this move to RNG boxes is, that the temptation for ZOS is high to focus on exclusive items for the boxes instead to bring large DLCs - why would they bother with a large DLC, which they might be able to sell for 4000 crowns, if they can just sell any item they had so far - from 400 crowns to 4500 crowns, for an average price of 8000 crowns via those boxes

I will say again. No one (in this discussion) picks the MMO they are going to play because of the lucky bags in the store. The cash shop does not bring in players. Focusing on the cash store is a death spiral. They need to have the DLC and new content to bring players in, otherwise there is no one new to sell lucky bags to.

ADarklore wrote: »

59 pages and still NOTHING from ZOS even acknowledging the results of this thread! Instead we get the 'recap' announcement which includes references to the 'lottery boxes'. Yeah, ZOS listens to their players... RIGHT. Apparently only when it's financially convenient to 'listen'.

Did you notice that the recap did not mention exclusive crate contents? Firor mentioned it, and used the word 'exclusive'. The recap does not. Of course, failure to mention it does not mean it won't happen.

An alternative is to have the new "seasonal" extremely rare items in the Crown Store for a brief limited time at a high price, but have them available in the crate for the entire season. In this way, they are not exclusive to the crate, but you have to be there when they are on sale, or else.

Aside: Also, ZOS, please... can you come up with a better name than "Crown Crate". Sheesh. When the Creative People in the studio get back from vacation, yer gonna get yelled at.

starkerealm wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.

Yeah, and the skeletal mounts were first datamined before that post was made. Meaning, the boxes were already in the works back then. She actually lied to us. I see how they can weasel out, she said, "locked" boxes, but they were lying.

What is this about the Skeletal Mounts all of a sudden. I fail to see the connection between a crappy skeleton mount and these boxes such that one predicts the other. This sounds like something you just invented.

This is because you missed the other post, where I showed basically the following:

If you have a 5% chance to win something special with a box, how many boxes does it take to have a flip coin chance (50:50) to win nothing at all - 0.95^14= 48.8% - roughly 50% - so from this result I take those 14 boxes. Now using this, we can say, that from all the people buying 14 boxes and just those 14, half of them will win nothing special at all - using 3000 players as base, I can say now, 1500 will not win anything special. Then there is the general rule that in any distribution of a random chance you will have about 1/3 which under-perform, 1/3 which are average and 1/3 which over-perform - so roughly 1000 will win just 1 item. I can further say that the amount of items has to be 3000x14x0.05 = 2100. 1000 people will win just 1 item, which leaves 1100 items for 500 people left - and this means they win an average of 2.2 items.

I hope this is now clearer, how I came to this distribution.

Hand_Bacon

Yes I like the random boxes idea so Long as they only have cosmetics

That is a pretty big leap.

It may turn out that these mounts end up in the boxes, but it doesn't mean they were specifically designed with those in mind. The most plausible scenario is that these and other items may end up in the boxes but where not being developed specifically for RNG boxes.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Lysette wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

Lylith wrote: »

just remember, the house always wins.

I killed House and took over his casino.

Oh... the house.

Nevermind.

Lysette wrote: »

I will give another example to show, why ZOS is pushing this forward - I will again use a 5% chance to win something and I will for the sake of simplicity assume a crowd of 3000 people who buy 14 boxes each to have a 50% chance to win anything. So let's see how this turns out:

1500 of these people will not win anything - that is the flip coin chance which comes with those 14 boxes gone wrong.
1000 will have won 1 item (it is always about 1/3 which is near to the "average")
500 will have won more than 1 item (2.2 in average)

ZOS would have to give out 14x3000x0.05 = 2100 special items. They got from box sales 14x3000x400 = 16.8 million crowns and this means that they made in average 8000 crowns with every special item they had to give out - voila profit like never before - and this already with 5% chance - it will most likely be much less what they offer and this is why they do this.

I was completely unable to follow this.

Lysette wrote: »

The problem I see with this move to RNG boxes is, that the temptation for ZOS is high to focus on exclusive items for the boxes instead to bring large DLCs - why would they bother with a large DLC, which they might be able to sell for 4000 crowns, if they can just sell any item they had so far - from 400 crowns to 4500 crowns, for an average price of 8000 crowns via those boxes

I will say again. No one (in this discussion) picks the MMO they are going to play because of the lucky bags in the store. The cash shop does not bring in players. Focusing on the cash store is a death spiral. They need to have the DLC and new content to bring players in, otherwise there is no one new to sell lucky bags to.

ADarklore wrote: »

59 pages and still NOTHING from ZOS even acknowledging the results of this thread! Instead we get the 'recap' announcement which includes references to the 'lottery boxes'. Yeah, ZOS listens to their players... RIGHT. Apparently only when it's financially convenient to 'listen'.

Did you notice that the recap did not mention exclusive crate contents? Firor mentioned it, and used the word 'exclusive'. The recap does not. Of course, failure to mention it does not mean it won't happen.

An alternative is to have the new "seasonal" extremely rare items in the Crown Store for a brief limited time at a high price, but have them available in the crate for the entire season. In this way, they are not exclusive to the crate, but you have to be there when they are on sale, or else.

Aside: Also, ZOS, please... can you come up with a better name than "Crown Crate". Sheesh. When the Creative People in the studio get back from vacation, yer gonna get yelled at.

starkerealm wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.

Yeah, and the skeletal mounts were first datamined before that post was made. Meaning, the boxes were already in the works back then. She actually lied to us. I see how they can weasel out, she said, "locked" boxes, but they were lying.

What is this about the Skeletal Mounts all of a sudden. I fail to see the connection between a crappy skeleton mount and these boxes such that one predicts the other. This sounds like something you just invented.

This is because you missed the other post, where I showed basically the following:

If you have a 5% chance to win something special with a box, how many boxes does it take to have a flip coin chance (50:50) to win nothing at all - 0.95^14= 48.8% - roughly 50% - so from this result I take those 14 boxes. Now using this, we can say, that from all the people buying 14 boxes and just those 14, half of them will win nothing special at all - using 3000 players as base, I can say now, 1500 will not win anything special. Then there is the general rule that in any distribution of a random chance you will have about 1/3 which under-perform, 1/3 which are average and 1/3 which over-perform - so roughly 1000 will win just 1 item. I can further say that the amount of items has to be 3000x14x0.05 = 2100. 1000 people will win just 1 item, which leaves 1100 items for 500 people left - and this means they win an average of 2.2 items.

I hope this is now clearer, how I came to this distribution.

Statistical probability can be difficult to wrap your head around.

Of course, we're also talking about ESO's RNG, so it's far more likely that 2500 get nothing, and a handful get buried.

Lysette

No, don't ever add these into the game.

starkerealm wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

Lylith wrote: »

just remember, the house always wins.

I killed House and took over his casino.

Oh... the house.

Nevermind.

Lysette wrote: »

I will give another example to show, why ZOS is pushing this forward - I will again use a 5% chance to win something and I will for the sake of simplicity assume a crowd of 3000 people who buy 14 boxes each to have a 50% chance to win anything. So let's see how this turns out:

1500 of these people will not win anything - that is the flip coin chance which comes with those 14 boxes gone wrong.
1000 will have won 1 item (it is always about 1/3 which is near to the "average")
500 will have won more than 1 item (2.2 in average)

ZOS would have to give out 14x3000x0.05 = 2100 special items. They got from box sales 14x3000x400 = 16.8 million crowns and this means that they made in average 8000 crowns with every special item they had to give out - voila profit like never before - and this already with 5% chance - it will most likely be much less what they offer and this is why they do this.

I was completely unable to follow this.

Lysette wrote: »

The problem I see with this move to RNG boxes is, that the temptation for ZOS is high to focus on exclusive items for the boxes instead to bring large DLCs - why would they bother with a large DLC, which they might be able to sell for 4000 crowns, if they can just sell any item they had so far - from 400 crowns to 4500 crowns, for an average price of 8000 crowns via those boxes

I will say again. No one (in this discussion) picks the MMO they are going to play because of the lucky bags in the store. The cash shop does not bring in players. Focusing on the cash store is a death spiral. They need to have the DLC and new content to bring players in, otherwise there is no one new to sell lucky bags to.

ADarklore wrote: »

59 pages and still NOTHING from ZOS even acknowledging the results of this thread! Instead we get the 'recap' announcement which includes references to the 'lottery boxes'. Yeah, ZOS listens to their players... RIGHT. Apparently only when it's financially convenient to 'listen'.

Did you notice that the recap did not mention exclusive crate contents? Firor mentioned it, and used the word 'exclusive'. The recap does not. Of course, failure to mention it does not mean it won't happen.

An alternative is to have the new "seasonal" extremely rare items in the Crown Store for a brief limited time at a high price, but have them available in the crate for the entire season. In this way, they are not exclusive to the crate, but you have to be there when they are on sale, or else.

Aside: Also, ZOS, please... can you come up with a better name than "Crown Crate". Sheesh. When the Creative People in the studio get back from vacation, yer gonna get yelled at.

starkerealm wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.

Yeah, and the skeletal mounts were first datamined before that post was made. Meaning, the boxes were already in the works back then. She actually lied to us. I see how they can weasel out, she said, "locked" boxes, but they were lying.

What is this about the Skeletal Mounts all of a sudden. I fail to see the connection between a crappy skeleton mount and these boxes such that one predicts the other. This sounds like something you just invented.

This is because you missed the other post, where I showed basically the following:

If you have a 5% chance to win something special with a box, how many boxes does it take to have a flip coin chance (50:50) to win nothing at all - 0.95^14= 48.8% - roughly 50% - so from this result I take those 14 boxes. Now using this, we can say, that from all the people buying 14 boxes and just those 14, half of them will win nothing special at all - using 3000 players as base, I can say now, 1500 will not win anything special. Then there is the general rule that in any distribution of a random chance you will have about 1/3 which under-perform, 1/3 which are average and 1/3 which over-perform - so roughly 1000 will win just 1 item. I can further say that the amount of items has to be 3000x14x0.05 = 2100. 1000 people will win just 1 item, which leaves 1100 items for 500 people left - and this means they win an average of 2.2 items.

I hope this is now clearer, how I came to this distribution.

Statistical probability can be difficult to wrap your head around.

Of course, we're also talking about ESO's RNG, so it's far more likely that 2500 get nothing, and a handful get buried.

Yes, I took 5% as base chance, but I think it is even worse - but this way I could establish, that any such item, which ZOS would have to give out with a 5% chance per box, would earn them 8000 crowns - regardless if that is a pet for 400 crowns or a rare mount for 4500 crowns - so most people using these boxes will pay a whole lot more for these items than buying them directly - and half of them will get nothing of value at all - this was to demonstrate, how bad this scheme really is for players.

LMar

No, don't ever add these into the game.

No please do not add crates into the game at all. Do the gifting crowns thing and watch sales soar instead!

leothedino

No, don't ever add these into the game.

A box that is the start of a slippery slope. Buying something for a chance of nothing, products you can't see using ESO's RNG that is building a massive reputation for itself as poor and always at the players disadvantage. This is not why I play an MMO. In the past they have 'released features' and informed us of coming additions that were questionable at best, but they stuck to their guns anyway and we accepted it. This time, for the first time ever, I actually want them to retract this and say that they listened and learned, that these boxes aren't staying and it was a bad decision.

You're a company, you need to make money, we do actually understand this. But this route, this way? This is far from subtle and the start of a dark path toward temptation. I want to trust you when you say it will never be P2W... I would defend the game too, when people counter that. But so have other games in the past, and then, before you know it, special armour sets drop in these boxes, new skills and new weapons/buff potions, too.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Hand_Bacon wrote: »

That is a pretty big leap.

It may turn out that these mounts end up in the boxes, but it doesn't mean they were specifically designed with those in mind. The most plausible scenario is that these and other items may end up in the boxes but where not being developed specifically for RNG boxes.

It becomes a much smaller one when you keep in mind how long the lag time is between things being announced and implemented. We're still waiting on Murkmire, for example. Assuming there's a rough FIFO setup for the development stream isn't unreasonable. Assuming that the mounts were originally developed for Halloween wouldn't have been that unreasonable, until you remember the bears weren't even a thing until November or December.

No, these boxes must have been in development for awhile. It wasn't an idea someone came up with over the weekend, and ran with.

dsalter

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.


Now they had plans for RNG Boxes.
http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/2016/08/23/gamescom-2016-recap-update-12-and-one-tamriel


First they said cosmetic and convenience items only.


Later in the future you can tell it by yourself

Sure they said Lootboxes cosmetics only. That is their as for now. But you can't tell what is going happen in the future. The existence of Lootboxes itself is a step towards Pay to win. It has happened with past games in similar fashion, with same exact initial promises. What make you think it would be any different here?

notice that convenience items slipped in there?
crafting materials are convenient. saves you farming.

elvenmad

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Alot of people play games to get away from real life problems not play games and end up with them, because that's what real money chance and gambling does

dsalter wrote: »

Wow wrote: »

Another add to my previous post:

First they said No plans for RNG Boxes.


Now they had plans for RNG Boxes.
http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/2016/08/23/gamescom-2016-recap-update-12-and-one-tamriel


First they said cosmetic and convenience items only.


Later in the future you can tell it by yourself

Sure they said Lootboxes cosmetics only. That is their as for now. But you can't tell what is going happen in the future. The existence of Lootboxes itself is a step towards Pay to win. It has happened with past games in similar fashion, with same exact initial promises. What make you think it would be any different here?

notice that convenience items slipped in there?
crafting materials are convenient. saves you farming.

more importantly notice it also says Consumables, which covers just about everything like crafting and upgrade consumables.

JimT722

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Hello everyone,

This post is to inform you that we've felt it necessary to close this thread. The reason being that there is currently a more active thread on the topic here. If you would like to voice your opinion on the matter, please feel free to do so there, as it will be far easier to track everyone's opinion on one thread.

Many thanks!

Does this mean there is hope? Are they tracking our opinions? If they are then the majority says no to crown store crates.

The_Undefined

No, don't ever add these into the game.

JimT722 wrote: »

Hello everyone,

This post is to inform you that we've felt it necessary to close this thread. The reason being that there is currently a more active thread on the topic here. If you would like to voice your opinion on the matter, please feel free to do so there, as it will be far easier to track everyone's opinion on one thread.

Many thanks!

Does this mean there is hope? Are they tracking our opinions? If they are then the majority says no to crown store crates.

I would hope so, more than likely it's a polite way of herding us all into one corner for damage control. I really, sincerely, hope they're at least telling the devs about this thread.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

JimT722 wrote: »

Hello everyone,

This post is to inform you that we've felt it necessary to close this thread. The reason being that there is currently a more active thread on the topic here. If you would like to voice your opinion on the matter, please feel free to do so there, as it will be far easier to track everyone's opinion on one thread.

Many thanks!

Does this mean there is hope? Are they tracking our opinions? If they are then the majority says no to crown store crates.

They closed the poll with unanimous opposition, in favor of the one that didn't have a "no, I'm not doing that." So, that should tell you exactly how much they value our opinions.

Forsakiin

Yes I like the random boxes idea so Long as they only have cosmetics

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items. People have gone into hysteria acting as if they have a gun pointed towards their heads forcing them to buy them. I also love how suddenly everyone has became a justice warrior and are jumping to the aid of these so called "vulnerable people" who are now doomed to forever blow all their money on ESO crown boxes.

I have a similar feeling about crown boxes as I do about the duelling that's coming out. I'm not bothered about duelling, and I doubt i'll use it very much since I'm more of a pve player, but I'm happy for the people who wanted it and will be using it. At the end of the day it's a feature of the game that I'm not forced to do and can easily avoid, much like the crown boxes.

This will no doubt rake in a lot of money for ZoS, as I imagine a lot of people will buy tons of boxes in order to get a previous limited mount they want. But for some reason this is where the problem lies for people on this forum. A mass triggering has occurred because there is no guarantee on what you're going to get, even though the conditions of the boxes are presented clear as day to you before buying them. There's this extreme notion going around that this is going to extract the gambling addiction in people, and of course there's absolutely no way us internet people could accept such a thing happening as we always aim for the moral high ground /s. Some people need to experience life more if they truly believe others are so uncontrollable like this. I see people threatening and claiming to leave the game over this which is pretty hilarious really.

I agree with the decision to release these boxes. It brings more money into ZoS which will (hopefully) be reinvested back into the game for new and better features, and it also gives people a chance to obtain limited items without ruining their rarity for the others who had initially bought them when they were in the crown store.

If gear etc. is added into these boxes then I will happily hop onto the bandwagon, but I really doubt that will happen.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

JimT722

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items. People have gone into hysteria acting as if they have a gun pointed towards their heads forcing them to buy them. I also love how suddenly everyone has became a justice warrior and are jumping to the aid of these so called "vulnerable people" who are now doomed to forever blow all their money on ESO crown boxes.

I have a similar feeling about crown boxes as I do about the duelling that's coming out. I'm not bothered about duelling, and I doubt i'll use it very much since I'm more of a pve player, but I'm happy for the people who wanted it and will be using it. At the end of the day it's a feature of the game that I'm not forced to do and can easily avoid, much like the crown boxes.

This will no doubt rake in a lot of money for ZoS, as I imagine a lot of people will buy tons of boxes in order to get a previous limited mount they want. But for some reason this is where the problem lies for people on this forum. A mass triggering has occurred because there is no guarantee on what you're going to get, even though the conditions of the boxes are presented clear as day to you before buying them. There's this extreme notion going around that this is going to extract the gambling addiction in people, and of course there's absolutely no way us internet people could accept such a thing happening as we always aim for the moral high ground /s. Some people need to experience life more if they truly believe others are so uncontrollable like this. I see people threatening and claiming to leave the game over this which is pretty hilarious really.

I agree with the decision to release these boxes. It brings more money into ZoS which will (hopefully) be reinvested back into the game for new and better features, and it also gives people a chance to obtain limited items without ruining their rarity for the others who had initially bought them when they were in the crown store.

The problem is if these sell well then that's what they will invest in. And they will sell well. It has happened in many other games. I don't want it to happen here because I love this game and want to play for another two years. Look at SWTOR. Almost all of their updates are to their cartel packs. I think they may have released 3 updates since they launched.

They make tons of money with little production cost, and people will drain money into it. This works and will end up a major focus for development.

In the announcement they say extremely rare cosmetics. I don't want to know the odds but people will spend ridiculous amounts of money to obtain.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

I agree with the decision to release these boxes. It brings more money into ZoS which will (hopefully) be reinvested back into the game for new and better features, and it also gives people a chance to obtain limited items without ruining their rarity for the others who had initially bought them when they were in the crown store.

That might be the intention, but it's not what will ultimately happen. Boxes like this are a tail that wags the dog. They make so much money, developers turn around and focus on them to the exclusion of the game they're attached to. New content, bug fixes, all of that can be set aside when you can turn out a reskined mount and pull in hundreds of times the cash for a fraction of the effort.

Again, it's possible ZOS could be the first company to resist that trend... but, I seriously doubt it.

EDIT: Well, derp. I meant to edit, and ended up quoting instead.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

JimT722 wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items. People have gone into hysteria acting as if they have a gun pointed towards their heads forcing them to buy them. I also love how suddenly everyone has became a justice warrior and are jumping to the aid of these so called "vulnerable people" who are now doomed to forever blow all their money on ESO crown boxes.

I have a similar feeling about crown boxes as I do about the duelling that's coming out. I'm not bothered about duelling, and I doubt i'll use it very much since I'm more of a pve player, but I'm happy for the people who wanted it and will be using it. At the end of the day it's a feature of the game that I'm not forced to do and can easily avoid, much like the crown boxes.

This will no doubt rake in a lot of money for ZoS, as I imagine a lot of people will buy tons of boxes in order to get a previous limited mount they want. But for some reason this is where the problem lies for people on this forum. A mass triggering has occurred because there is no guarantee on what you're going to get, even though the conditions of the boxes are presented clear as day to you before buying them. There's this extreme notion going around that this is going to extract the gambling addiction in people, and of course there's absolutely no way us internet people could accept such a thing happening as we always aim for the moral high ground /s. Some people need to experience life more if they truly believe others are so uncontrollable like this. I see people threatening and claiming to leave the game over this which is pretty hilarious really.

I agree with the decision to release these boxes. It brings more money into ZoS which will (hopefully) be reinvested back into the game for new and better features, and it also gives people a chance to obtain limited items without ruining their rarity for the others who had initially bought them when they were in the crown store.

The problem is if these sell well then that's what they will invest in. And they will sell well. It has happened in many other games. I don't want it to happen here because I love this game and want to play for another two years. Look at SWTOR. Almost all of their updates are to their cartel packs. I think they may have released 3 updates since they launched.

They make tons of money with little production cost, and people will drain money into it. This works and will end up a major focus for development.

In the announcement they say extremely rare cosmetics. I don't want to know the odds but people will spend ridiculous amounts of money to obtain.

Star Trek Online went from an every three month update schedule (sound familiar) to every 15-18 months for new content. To their credit, they did release a couple massive expansion packs, but most of the new stuff was very simple grind content.

Forsakiin

Yes I like the random boxes idea so Long as they only have cosmetics

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

I would be here in protest with everyone else if this great game became p2w, but as of now it is not, and won't be in the next update. I don't think it's fair to criticise ZoS on presumptions, or what other MMOs have done in the past. Those MMOs are not ESO, that is the difference. All these boxes are at the moment are cosmetic items, nothing more and nothing less, therefore I believe the reaction around this forum should be based on that information. The pitch forks should only come out IF the boxes become p2w, but as of now they are far from it and I think it should be welcomed by the community if it brings in money to improve the game further.

Mojmir

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

I would be here in protest with everyone else if this great game became p2w, but as of now it is not, and won't be in the next update. I don't think it's fair to criticise ZoS on presumptions, or what other MMOs have done in the past. Those MMOs are not ESO, that is the difference. All these boxes are at the moment are cosmetic items, nothing more and nothing less, therefore I believe the reaction around this forum should be based on that information. The pitch forks should only come out IF the boxes become p2w, but as of now they are far from it and I think it should be welcomed by the community if it brings in money to improve the game further.

That would be too late

Abeille

No I dislike the random crown store boxes, to much of a gamble

Well, my few days off are over and I won't be able to participate very actively anymore.

I'll still try to tune in for ESO Live this Friday, if it really happens.

I hope these boxes make just enough money to justify their existence; not so little that ZOS will feel the need to put more exclusive things and things that are not just cosmetic in there, but not so much that it will be worth it for ZOS to focus exclusively on them.

A game with a shop or a shop with a game?

Mojmir

No, don't ever add these into the game.

On the brightside, now they can make a phone app,just for the crates.they'll fit right in with all the other games.

JimT722

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

I would be here in protest with everyone else if this great game became p2w, but as of now it is not, and won't be in the next update. I don't think it's fair to criticise ZoS on presumptions, or what other MMOs have done in the past. Those MMOs are not ESO, that is the difference. All these boxes are at the moment are cosmetic items, nothing more and nothing less, therefore I believe the reaction around this forum should be based on that information. The pitch forks should only come out IF the boxes become p2w, but as of now they are far from it and I think it should be welcomed by the community if it brings in money to improve the game further.

You draw the line at p2w. Fine, I can respect that opinion. We are comparing eso to other MMO's because it is following a similar pattern. Extremely rare cosmetics are what they sell in SWTOR cartel packs. It's what they focus on because it is what pulls people in to spending massive amounts of money. It makes sense for a company, because it's cheap to produce and generates massive profits.

It is not good for a game and it won't be for eso.

starkerealm

No, don't ever add these into the game.

Forsakiin wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

I would be here in protest with everyone else if this great game became p2w, but as of now it is not, and won't be in the next update. I don't think it's fair to criticise ZoS on presumptions, or what other MMOs have done in the past. Those MMOs are not ESO, that is the difference. All these boxes are at the moment are cosmetic items, nothing more and nothing less, therefore I believe the reaction around this forum should be based on that information. The pitch forks should only come out IF the boxes become p2w, but as of now they are far from it and I think it should be welcomed by the community if it brings in money to improve the game further.

And that's an entirely fair position to take. I mean that, it's not a sarcastic undercut. From where you're sitting, with what you've experienced, it's entirely reasonable to say, "look, I don't know what they're going to do next."

Unfortunately, I'm not in the position of saying, "this is unfamiliar to me." And, you can trust me when I say, "I want to believe that ZOS is different from all the other companies I've seen go down this road in the past." But, prior experience tells me that, no, this cannot lead to anything good happening. I've seen what this does to MMOs too many times.

It won't bring more money into development. Even if that's the goal, the boxes always become a self sustaining cycle, and the rest of the game rots. They always become more important than the game to the accountants, if no one else. And when the developers are taking their marching orders, it is always at the behest of "where will we get the most return for our investment into the product?"

P2W is coming. They may not want it. They may not be planning for it now. (Though, I suspect they are, even if only as "a contingency.") But, it is coming. When the box sales flag a little bit. When the population dips too far, and it becomes more convenient to buy power.

ZOS could be different. But, I can't put that kind of faith into a business. I'm sorry.

Mojmir

No, don't ever add these into the game.

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

starkerealm wrote: »

Forsakiin wrote: »

The outrage regarding these boxes is laughable. I'd understand if they were introducing a p2w system, but it will be purely cosmetic items.

You've got to understand, a lot of us have seen this exact promise made before, in other MMOs. It will be strictly cosmetic at launch, but over time... not so much. ZOS is not the first company to come up with this business model. ZOS is not the first company to soft sell it, saying it's only going to be cosmetic. If ZOS did not stoop into P2W with this format, then they would be the first company I'm aware of with a spotless record on that subject. So... no. This is the first step towards that. A lot of us have seen this road before, we know where it leads, and we're saying "*** no!"

I would be here in protest with everyone else if this great game became p2w, but as of now it is not, and won't be in the next update. I don't think it's fair to criticise ZoS on presumptions, or what other MMOs have done in the past. Those MMOs are not ESO, that is the difference. All these boxes are at the moment are cosmetic items, nothing more and nothing less, therefore I believe the reaction around this forum should be based on that information. The pitch forks should only come out IF the boxes become p2w, but as of now they are far from it and I think it should be welcomed by the community if it brings in money to improve the game further.

And that's an entirely fair position to take. I mean that, it's not a sarcastic undercut. From where you're sitting, with what you've experienced, it's entirely reasonable to say, "look, I don't know what they're going to do next."

Unfortunately, I'm not in the position of saying, "this is unfamiliar to me." And, you can trust me when I say, "I want to believe that ZOS is different from all the other companies I've seen go down this road in the past." But, prior experience tells me that, no, this cannot lead to anything good happening. I've seen what this does to MMOs too many times.

It won't bring more money into development. Even if that's the goal, the boxes always become a self sustaining cycle, and the rest of the game rots. They always become more important than the game to the accountants, if no one else. And when the developers are taking their marching orders, it is always at the behest of "where will we get the most return for our investment into the product?"

P2W is coming. They may not want it. They may not be planning for it now. (Though, I suspect they are, even if only as "a contingency.") But, it is coming. When the box sales flag a little bit. When the population dips too far, and it becomes more convenient to buy power.

ZOS could be different. But, I can't put that kind of faith into a business. I'm sorry.

I think what makes it hard for people to grasp is their faith in the name of the game. If it was any other franchise or brand it would be a different story.