Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Dubhliam · December 2016

Figured I'd drop these here, since my thread got closed.

Note that these statistics are not recorded on live, but I am fairly convinced that nothing much has changed since PTS testing.

JimT722 · December 2016

No they have changed the drop percent on rarer items. They wouldn't tell us what that was, is now, and increased by how much. For a system designed to milk people I guess we are supposed to trust them?

Elsonso · December 2016

Dubhliam wrote: »

Figured I'd drop these here, since my thread got closed.

Note that these statistics are not recorded on live, but I am fairly convinced that nothing much has changed since PTS testing.

The point of this thread it to determine what the Live drop rate is. We can compare it to the PTS drop rate, given accurate enough data.

Edit: Of course, this is the reason they did not publish the drop rates. They are laughing at us. We have to spend money to determine the drop rate, which encourages people to buy them so they can contribute to this research. Why give us the drop rate when we will spend thousands to figure it out ourselves? 245k Crowns spent and the results contributed to the research. (Edit again: Apex mounts are running 10k, if you are happy with any of them. If you want a specific one, it is closer to 40k Crowns)

Elsonso · December 2016

@Enodoc ... so, is your spreadsheet broken?

IOUAT · December 2016

how long will this be available? like when does it end?

Enodoc · December 2016

lordrichter wrote: »

@Enodoc ... so, is your spreadsheet broken?

I haven't checked it for a while, but it looks OK right now, I'm just doing a revision check... Why? What is/was wrong with it?

Elsonso · December 2016

Enodoc wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

@Enodoc ... so, is your spreadsheet broken?

I haven't checked it for a while, but it looks OK right now, I'm just doing a revision check... Why? What is/was wrong with it?

Well, it went for a long time with no new crates, yet there were edits being made that made it look like people were entering data.

Slylok · December 2016

1. Remove Gem Conversion - Keep giving gems on duplicate items.
2. Each and every crate will have 27 Crown Gems separate from the other items.

After 15 crates are opened a player would have at least 405 gems not counting any duplicates. That seems fair as most of the hub bub seems to center around not getting an apex mount. These mounts most likely would be at least 2500 or more ( likely more ) crowns on their own in the store so $40 for the 5500 Crown pack ( 15 crates ) for at least 1 sure apex mount.. Not a bad deal.

Enodoc · December 2016

lordrichter wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

@Enodoc ... so, is your spreadsheet broken?

I haven't checked it for a while, but it looks OK right now, I'm just doing a revision check... Why? What is/was wrong with it?

Well, it went for a long time with no new crates, yet there were edits being made that made it look like people were entering data.

I think the interest has just dropped off. Maybe nobody on the forums has bought any more crates after that initial surge; the same probably goes for any new item.

Fodore · December 2016

15 crates and these are the things I consider good:

Storm camel
Storm guar
Grand xp scroll
Storm atronach aura

lehran · December 2016

I didn't record exactly what I got in each crate, sadly, as I assumed that everything in any particular tier has the same drop rate. That appears to be a bad assumption, looking at the spreadsheet.

I did, however, open 205 crates, but I only recorded what tier I got, not which were duplicates or anything. Of the 8 Apex I opened, 3 were duplicates (I got everything except the wolf). My raw data is at this link along with a python 3 script to parse it (one crate per line, each line lists the number of cards in that crate as well as the color of each card in order). Unfortunately, I can't add any of this to the spreadsheet since I didn't record what I got, and I already sold all of the consumables off for gems. Anyone have any ideas for how I can integrate my data with the spreadsheet? I'm going to trawl through this thread later and add any manually reported crates in this thread too to add to my dataset, as my data at least records per-crate, as opposed to the spreadsheet which only aggregates across all crates, just in case there are any additional insights that can be made there.

SaRuZ · December 2016

Purchasing crown crates is simply investing in ZoS stock. I have never in my life seen a more idiotic way to sell something. Gambling? Are you people on crack? This is a video game. WAKE UP

JimT722 · December 2016

SaRuZ wrote: »

Purchasing crown crates is simply investing in ZoS stock. I have never in my life seen a more idiotic way to sell something. Gambling? Are you people on crack? This is a video game. WAKE UP

I think it's too late for the MMO industry. It's mostly complete crap now.

Elsonso · December 2016

Well, the industry seems quite inbred, so it is not surprising. The same people run from game to game doing variations on the same thing. This seems to be encouraged. It is a lot safer than coming up with new ideas, I suppose.

Prof_Bawbag · December 2016

I agree. Towards the end of the last gen console cycle we were told the lack of innovation was purely done to the fact not many devs wanted to gamble with the cycle coming so close to its end. That was semi understandable. This gen we have been flooded with sequels and remasters and very little innovation. It's a reflection on the gaming industry as a whole rather than being able to pin it down to one particular genre.

You know things are bad when you're stoked for a Skyrim remaster. A game I played to death on the 360.

rotaugen454 · December 2016

I wrote down everything I got, but it will take some time to compile.

Slurg · December 2016

Looking at the drop rates posted in spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing
1% for apex and 3% for legendary are not impressive drop rates, if accurate.

In some of these threads people have reported spending upwards of $100 USD and not even receiving enough gems to trade for what they want. It would seem like less of a rip off if people were guaranteed enough gems to obtain the reward of their choice after spending a certain amount.

Or maybe I should just stop feeling bad for people getting ripped off. It's their money after all, and a few of them appear to be winning.

Slylok · December 2016

Slurg wrote: »

Looking at the drop rates posted in spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing
1% for apex and 3% for legendary are not impressive drop rates, if accurate.

In some of these threads people have reported spending upwards of $100 USD and not even receiving enough gems to trade for what they want. It would seem like less of a rip off if people were guaranteed enough gems to obtain the reward of their choice after spending a certain amount.

Or maybe I should just stop feeling bad for people getting ripped off. It's their money after all, and a few of them appear to be winning.

Which IMO is the main issue. In think dropping $40 on the 5500 crown pack for 15 crates should net a person at least 400 gems to get 1 apex item.

Cazzy · December 2016

So the drop rate seems to be roughly 1% for an apex reward...and that's with ZOS increasing the odds.

rotaugen454 · December 2016

Cazzy wrote: »

So the drop rate seems to be roughly 1% for an apex reward...and that's with ZOS increasing the odds.

Hey, they went all the way from 1.00% to 1.01%!

Nebthet78 · December 2016

I have a friend who spent $390 on these stupid crates to get everything....... I told him he was stupid.

lehran · December 2016

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Cazzy wrote: »

So the drop rate seems to be roughly 1% for an apex reward...and that's with ZOS increasing the odds.

Hey, they went all the way from 1.00% to 1.01%!

Right now from my own data I'm collecting (I don't exactly trust the spreadsheet due to lack of raw data to verify everything was input correctly, so I'm basing on my own crates I opened, youtube videos of people opening crates, and reports upthread), I'm seeing right now a 3.29% chance to get an Apex reward per crate (365 crates recorded atm, still working on inputting more, there is a lot of yt footage to go through).

driosketch · December 2016

lehran wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Cazzy wrote: »

So the drop rate seems to be roughly 1% for an apex reward...and that's with ZOS increasing the odds.

Hey, they went all the way from 1.00% to 1.01%!

Right now from my own data I'm collecting (I don't exactly trust the spreadsheet due to lack of raw data to verify everything was input correctly, so I'm basing on my own crates I opened, youtube videos of people opening crates, and reports upthread), I'm seeing right now a 3.29% chance to get an Apex reward per crate (365 crates recorded atm, still working on inputting more, there is a lot of yt footage to go through).

Hope you have lots and lots of youtube videos. We don't seem to be getting as much reliable reporting as I hoped. And a lot of the posts would bias the results since they only want to report the "good stuff". Don't really blame anyone though. This process is like assigning yourself homework.

Elsonso · December 2016

driosketch wrote: »

lehran wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Cazzy wrote: »

So the drop rate seems to be roughly 1% for an apex reward...and that's with ZOS increasing the odds.

Hey, they went all the way from 1.00% to 1.01%!

Right now from my own data I'm collecting (I don't exactly trust the spreadsheet due to lack of raw data to verify everything was input correctly, so I'm basing on my own crates I opened, youtube videos of people opening crates, and reports upthread), I'm seeing right now a 3.29% chance to get an Apex reward per crate (365 crates recorded atm, still working on inputting more, there is a lot of yt footage to go through).

Hope you have lots and lots of youtube videos. We don't seem to be getting as much reliable reporting as I hoped. And a lot of the posts would bias the results since they only want to report the "good stuff". Don't really blame anyone though. This process is like assigning yourself homework.

... and paying to do it.

lehran · December 2016

I've updated the OP of my thread here with more recent numbers (650 crates). I'll keep updating it there until it gets locked, at which point you'll start seeing wall-of-text replies in this thread

driosketch · December 2016

@lehran
Well they closed it. Here's my reply before lock concerning the fifth card.

lehran wrote: »

OP updated with more recent numbers; I'll just keep updating this thread until it gets locked, as it's easier to see numbers on an OP rather than buried on the 15th page of replies.

aisriyth_ESO wrote: »

So, it's funny you mentioned apex from bonus card only. I don't recall if I got an apex from a non bonus card or not (I feel like I did) but I definitely got the majority from bonus cards. In fact my bonus cards were almost always purple or above. I wonder if the bonus card is a higher % of something rarer?

I had a few packs that were an apex and a legendary.

Out of 650 crates, both mine and others, I have never once seen an Apex in one of the 4 normal slots. If it is possible, it is incredibly unlikely. At this point, as I have no observations or confirmation to the contrary, I'm maintaining my position that it is impossible.

I went back and checked my PTS reporting, as I pulled 3 apex mounts in two days and kept detailed notes. Second day, when I pulled two storm mounts, they were both from 4 card draws. Also of note, I pulled a blue card as well in each of those draws. So we know it was at least possible back during testing. Secondly, it seems there might be a hidden mechanism at work after you pull at least a blue card already, possibly explaining the link to the bonus card.

lehran · December 2016

driosketch wrote: »

I went back and checked my PTS reporting, as I pulled 3 apex mounts in two days and kept detailed notes. Second day, when I pulled two storm mounts, they were both from 4 card draws. Also of note, I pulled a blue card as well in each of those draws. So we know it was at least possible back during testing. Secondly, it seems there might be a hidden mechanism at work after you pull at least a blue card already, possibly explaining the link to the bonus card.

I've yet to see it happening on the live server, so whether or not it was possible in PTS is immaterial to the statistics I'm crunching. As far as I can tell, on live, each slot is independent from the others. The only one with a slight variation is the 3rd normal slot, but in the opposite direction (it has a higher concentration of green and a lower concentration of purple/yellow; white and blue remain the same as the other 3 normal slots; purple+yellow counts for each normal slot in order in my dataset are 26, 22, 12, 28). Hopefully with more data I'll be able to see if that is actually statistically significant, and hopefully it ends up equalizing (as otherwise it means either an unfair RNG or a mechanic that makes each card dependent on what the others are, and sussing that out is going to be a nightmare).

JimT722 · December 2016

Is this number crunching going to be accurate next season? Could the number of items next season effect this or ZOS decide the reward rate is too high? Are these going to be tested every season for drop rate?

Korah_Eaglecry · December 2016

Dubhliam wrote: »

Figured I'd drop these here, since my thread got closed.

Note that these statistics are not recorded on live, but I am fairly convinced that nothing much has changed since PTS testing.

From what I was reading on Reddit that seems to be pretty accurate. They found that the Apex mounts were dropping about 1% of the time. Which makes sense considering its the top tier of the crates. You arent going to sell alot of these crates if everyones getting the Apex rewards every time or even close to every time.

rosendoichinoveb17_ESO · December 2016

If indeed Apex rewards are 1-1,4% wouldn't that make roughly a 50% change of obtaining an Apex mount from a 15 crate bundle?

My success rate from 15 crates:

-tons of consumables and other things I wont use

Mounts:
-Frostmere
- Direwolf (or whatever its called)
- Gold eye guar (or whatever it is called)
- Storm Atronach Guar (unfortunately my least favorite mount)

Not planning on spending more on crates. Will wait when they release lava or magma based mounts (probably in the summer, unfortunately)