Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

driosketch

JimT722 wrote: »

What would be the worst case scenario for 56 gems?

Assuming you don't care about any of the superior cards, and have none of them already, no bonus cards, and 3 fine or common cards on each draw, 57 gems after 19 crates, getting the entire superior tier in the process. Not probable, but possible.

Additional edit: Assuming basic XP scrolls can still substitute for an otherwise guaranteed cosmetic, let's say you have 5 of the blue already but pull scrolls instead of dups, it would still take 18 crates. Worst case, of course.

One more edit: Assuming the above is true, you're only getting 4 consumable pulls, then 14 crates.

JimT722

driosketch wrote: »

JimT722 wrote: »

What would be the worst case scenario for 56 gems?

While not probable, but certainly possible: All blue tier cards at least once, (assuming you don't care about any of those), --editing, misread you---'

What I was looking for is if rngesus absolutely hates you, how many crates would you have to open to get 56 gems?

Edit: question could have been much clearer. Sorry.

Mutagem

Dunno if this will help or not

sitting at 201 gems, bought 32 crates, haven't spent any gems

I got one atronach mount [the guar one] and the rare memento atronach one that channels it through you

snakester320

Concenaros wrote: »

snakester320 wrote: »

Concenaros wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

JimT722 wrote: »

I never thought I would see the day someone compares a AAA MMO with mobile games, and say it's okay. Low standards?

You must have misread them. I am pretty sure they were comparing ESO to a mobile game.

To be fair I wasn't comparing, ESO to Mobile or vice versa. What I was saying is they've adopted a Gacha system FROM mobile into ESO.

Which a lot of non-mobile games are doing now. Since Gacha is the norm on mobile I thought I'd at least touch on where the system sort-of originated. Lol.

But yes, he misread me. Rofl.

these systems started a while ago first I saw it was mass effect 3 multi player prob a idea of the witch herself... but they had the good sense to allow you to buy crates for in game credits as well where as with eso they have taken it to disgusting lvls my guess the witch is on her broom again this time with more sting!

I've seen them in plenty of games before ME3. But like I said it's something that's been going on for awhile within Console and other platforms. How long ago? I have no idea but I know that FIFA has used a similar system with FUT, I know that Gears 4 is using this for Horde mode upgrades and stuff, so yeah I agree with your and my previous statement in that it's been happening more and more in places other than mobile.

It's kind of sad to see, but companies need to make money. So I'm not surprised it made the jump over.

I'm not against company's making money what I'm against is the way they go about it and for ZOS this is nothing more than greed and a disgusting cash grab ..explain how theses crates will translate into steady revenue for decent content (not shadows of hist 2 dungeon some gear bullsh.t) but decent content when there's so many ppl out there me included that will not spend a cent on them others get screwed over and won't spend a cent then the whales who have got something will most likely get shafted next season ... they couldn't put a mandatory subscription in place and offer free dlc so they lost there instead now every thing costs money dlc costumes all the crap in the crown store etc ( so okay they need to make money which is fine) now they actively want you to gamble money so they can raise money for content to charge you for again that's not making money that's milking money off there customers till the game dies

nimander99

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

Rinira

I'm not against the company making money but lets face it.. most of the cosmetic stuff is locked to the cash shop anymore. When was the last new mount added to the in game outside of the shop? Or a pet. Heck even the long awaited barber or ability to change hairstyles is locked behind the cash shop.

Personally I will never touch RNG boxes. I had my fill of that many many years ago when I was younger and thought a few boxes wouldn't hurt. Sure I buy stuff form the cash shop but I'm not going to waste money on the low rng odds of trying to get something I wanted from the box, or the poor exchange rate in hopes I can afford what I really wanted...

The data being collected sure isn't helping convince that the system is worth it either heh/

IOUAT

when will all the atronach rewards be removed?

lehran

JimT722 wrote: »

What I was looking for is if rngesus absolutely hates you, how many crates would you have to open to get 56 gems?

Gems per crate go up as you open more of them, because you'll start getting duplicates and that is what gets you the bulk of your gems (selling consumables is mostly nothing). For my 205 crates I had around 2000 gems (I think; I know I bought the one atro mount I was missing plus a couple legendaries, and I still have 1300 gems left over after unlocking literally everything in the crates), meaning I averaged about 10 gems per crate when all was said and done, but the majority of those gems came from the latter part of the crates. For the question of worst case scenario to get 56 gems, that would probably be around 28 crates. I haven't seen any crate in my dataset that has had less than two Common/Fine consumables, meaning you'll be able to pull at least 2 gems per crate; this doesn't mean it is impossible to only get 1 Common/Fine however (see also: the fact that Apex can appear in the normal 4 cards, but only 1 crate out of my 1000+ recorded has done that so far). This also assumes that everything else you get in those crates is a non-duplicate that you also don't care about, in other words you place no value whatsoever on the collectibles/experience scrolls you've obtained.

Rinira wrote: »

The data being collected sure isn't helping convince that the system is worth it either heh/

I'm glad you found the data useful to make an informed decision as to whether or not you find the crates worth it for you! Nobody should be expected to buy crates or any other crown store item, but for something RNG-dependent such as crates, it's always better to do your homework to see if it's worthwhile before you fall victim to the sunk costs fallacy or gambler's fallacy. This is why I'm passionate about collecting and disseminating this data, so that more people can make their own informed decisions as to whether or not these crates are personally worth it for them. My personal belief is that if you only want one of the atro mounts (or even worse, one specific atro mount) and don't care about anything else in the crates, they are a terrible value for you and you should avoid them. Perhaps after a year or two ZOS will put them in the normal crown store for regular sale, but I wouldn't hold my breath. However, if you like most of the rewards or you want everything, then the crates are much more palatable; you can get dozens of collectibles for much less money than if they would all be on sale individually in the crown store.

IOUAT wrote: »

when will all the atronach rewards be removed?

I believe ZOS has said that crate seasons are quarterly, so I expect this to be lasting for 3 months before a new set of crate rewards comes in.

Wing

I don't have a problem with them, simply don't purchase them, and understand the concept but. . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbDfFrhJZPI&t=517s

driosketch

Gems per crate go up as you open more of them,

Interesting paradox, if you are after a particular item, the value of each crate with a duplicate more than doubles, (up to 45 times). If you aren't concerned with what you get, or are collecting, each duplicate reduces the value under a half to almost a third.

rotaugen454

The success rate here is far above mine. I ended up with about a 1% apex drop rate on crates. I wrote down every drop and need to put it in a word file and copy paste it here when I have the time.

driosketch

Concenaros wrote: »

Also, they aren't legally obligated to provide the drop rates since it's a Gacha system and Gacha is still not really considered as gambling since you're paying direct cash for a chance at a good or high rarity prize.

The other threads and reddit are talking about a new law in China that will require it. Is this what needs to happen? If companies won't volunteer the information, then past laws to regulate them like some s casino?

Alarra

I got 30 crates (recorded 29 in the spreadsheet since I missed screenshotting the first one): the first 15 were pretty lucky since I got the red pit wolf I wanted (+ a duplicate) an apex (+ a duplicate of that too), and another mount, so I decided to try another 15, which were kinda a waste.

Highlights:
- Apex mount x3 (1 of which was duplicate), though not the one I wanted
- Other mounts x3 (probably the 3 I most wanted: black mane lion, clouded leopard senche, red pit wolf which was my #1 most wanted from the crate)
- Pets x5 (3 were duplicate)
- around 225 gems

I think the only times I got mounts where when I got 5 cards: it was the middle bonus card when it happened. EDIT: I did get one on a 4-card crate, but the others were all a bonus 5th card.

My main complaint is that the exchange rate for consumables is way too low: change that, and/or allow us to exchange costumes/etc if we're not interested even if they're duplicates (I got multiple Argonian hair/etc even though I don't have one, for instance), and that would be a vast improvement.

ProbablePaul

I got the black dog on first crate, and soul shriven skin on my second crate.

General_Serous

Anacario wrote: »

I got two Storm Atronach mounts in 10 crates. Either people are all paranoid and uppity over nothing, or I am ungodly lucky.

You are ungodly lucky, and I hate you. (jk about the hate)

lehran

General_Serous wrote: »

Anacario wrote: »

I got two Storm Atronach mounts in 10 crates. Either people are all paranoid and uppity over nothing, or I am ungodly lucky.

You are ungodly lucky, and I hate you. (jk about the hate)

Based on my data, there is a 3.8369% chance of getting two apex rewards in 10 crates. I wouldn't say it's ungodly lucky, but it is indeed pretty lucky

I'll be posting a data update once I get 1200+ crates recorded, it's going a bit slower now as I ran out of easy-to-find youtube videos (there are probably more I haven't seen but I'll need to be more creative in finding them).

@Alarra if you want to put the screenshots somewhere (maybe in an imgur album or something), I'd love to record them in my dataset as well.

JKorr

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

They would never do this. I was surprised to see they actually allowed the trade in of the "consumables" at all.

If you can use gems to buy items you want and did not get from the crates, you won't buy more crates to attempt to get the item you want, or buy more crates to accumulate the gems you need to buy the item or items you want. If you could trade in one for one when you get a stack of 25 poisons on one card, you would have enough for the legendary consolation prize with a minimum number of crates. In some of the crates I tried on the pts I got two "stack of 25" poisons cards. The consolation prize was, I believe, 100 gems. See the problem? You would accumulate gems too fast. Probably the same reason you can't trade one apex reward you don't want/like for the one you do. You get what you want, you don't buy more crates.

If someone would be satisfied with any of the clown crate exclusive mounts/costumes/whatevers, then the crates might be fun, and they will probably get "a" prize without spending $300 or more. Want a specific one? Unless Rngesus blesses you, it probably won't happen without spending a lot of money.

Elsonso

JKorr wrote: »

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

They would never do this. I was surprised to see they actually allowed the trade in of the "consumables" at all.

I wonder if they will use trading unwanted consumables for gems as an example of how they are all about listening to the players.

JKorr

lordrichter wrote: »

JKorr wrote: »

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

They would never do this. I was surprised to see they actually allowed the trade in of the "consumables" at all.

I wonder if they will use trading unwanted consumables for gems as an example of how they are all about listening to the players.

Possible; they threw out that uber ambrosia recipe thing when the pts complaints about "what happened to the "never better than what players can make" promise about the crown store?" came up on the pts thread. [Of course, after many posts about how no one anywhere had seen the cipher/dust drop despite people offering a million gold for it, there was that hotfix they did. My personal suspicion is that someone finally realized that they never added the stuff to the drop tables, even at an "infinitesimal chance". After the hot fix people did say they found the stuff. So I'm not sure how much is "listening" and how much is them doing "CYA".]

Alarra

lehran wrote: »

[@Alarra if you want to put the screenshots somewhere (maybe in an imgur album or something), I'd love to record them in my dataset as well.

@lehran Here you go.

Slylok

So far I have spent $95 ( including this months sub fee crowns ).

No Apex Mount.
Gold Guar.
Mind Shriven Horse.
Other cosmetics I wont use.

~200 Gems.

I opened 1 crate and got 3 Crown Lethal Poison cards... Yeah that shouldnt be possible. Repeat cards in the same deal should be thrown out and another dealt in its place.

For $95 I feel like I should have gotten... at least 1 item I wanted to get.

Elsonso

So, I gather that sales have dropped off, now?

Waffennacht

lordrichter wrote: »

So, I gather that sales have dropped off, now?

Saving up

waterfairy

A friend of mine bought the 1500 crown pack and only got consumables...pretty much threw $15 in the trash.

Korah_Eaglecry

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

And lose out on money that they would of otherwise made from the current setup? Never.

Korah_Eaglecry

lehran wrote: »

ninti wrote: »

No offense to Enodoc's hard work, but I am working on a spreadsheet of my own, one that is vetted and verifiable. I have 811 crates in it right now, and the odds I am seeing are much worse then Enodoc's spreadsheet.

Apex 0.65%
Legendary 2.58%
Epc 22.76%

Chance of a fifth card is 12.45% per crate.

The spreadsheet is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YE8TpQxwJvRBdIoHKKFSnt5nl2qttvFPhdQly_xz6y8/edit?usp=sharing

I find it interesting that you and I are getting vastly different data. I'm working on putting additional crates into my dataset. I'm not using any of the data from Enodoc's sheet, it's 100% input by me based on my own 205 crates as well as youtube videos of crate openings; and for said videos I only count them if they're opening 15+ crates in a single video or starting at 0 crown gems and opening at least 4 crates, and the videos cannot have any skips or cuts in them. This helps me ensure that I'm seeing raw data rather than only the crates that the person decided were worthy to show, either because they were really lucky or really unlucky. I've found that on these forums at least, self-reported data tends to largely be in one of those two camps, and I don't see many middle-of-the-road reports. Screenshots are similarly not verifiable, as they may also be cherry-picked. When I get 800+ crates in my dataset I'll run my numbers again and see if it trends down towards what you have or stays relatively steady; my guess is going to be the later.

My preference is that ZOS would just release the drop rate numbers so we didn't have to do this, as well as any methodology or special behavior to the crates. Furthermore, I'd like them to run several million simulations of crate openings using the live server RNG to prove that the actual numbers match up with what ZOS claims them to be (aka make sure the RNG is actually fair).

Thanks for admitting your nonsense farther up was just that. Nonsense.

nimander99

lordrichter wrote: »

JKorr wrote: »

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

They would never do this. I was surprised to see they actually allowed the trade in of the "consumables" at all.

I wonder if they will use trading unwanted consumables for gems as an example of how they are all about listening to the players.

They will.

And to the person who says they will never do this, I agree, they wont. But if they did, then the system would actually be a legitimately fair system, in the long run we would be spending the same amount for all the cosmetics as we would if we just got a huge quarterly dump of stuff.

nimander99

Korah_Eaglecry wrote: »

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

And lose out on money that they would of otherwise made from the current setup? Never.

Agreed, it is a system developed to suck cash from a few instead of a little from a lot. It is as they intended it. What I'm saying is if that were the ratio, then the system would actually be a fair system worth playing.

Korah_Eaglecry

nimander99 wrote: »

Korah_Eaglecry wrote: »

nimander99 wrote: »

The gems should be equal to the cost of the duplicate... And 5 potions should equal 5 gems, 25 poisons = 25 gems etc..

And lose out on money that they would of otherwise made from the current setup? Never.

Agreed, it is a system developed to suck cash from a few instead of a little from a lot. It is as they intended it. What I'm saying is if that were the ratio, then the system would actually be a fair system worth playing.

Agreed. And Id actually might participate within that system.

lehran

Didn't quite get to 1200, there seems to be a dearth of crate openings now that the initial "wonder" has passed, but here's an update on my data:

• Total crates: 1164
• Note: Per-crate percentages are listed as X% (Y%) where X% is the theoretical chance based on the per-card rates and Y% is the experimental chance computed by counting how many crates in the dataset contained that property.
• Note: Percentages are rounded to nearest ten-thousandth. Theoretical percentages listed below as 0.0000% are still possible, but have less than a 0.00005% chance of occurring. Experimental percentages listed as 0.0000% are actually 0%.
• Number of each card (normal): Common=2245 Fine=1125 Superior=1112 Epic=95 Legendary=78 Apex=1
• Number of each card (bonus): Common=0 Fine=0 Superior=0 Epic=106 Legendary=49 Apex=40
• Chance of bonus card: 16.7526%
• Chance per card (normal): Common=48.2174% Fine=24.1624% Superior=23.8832% Epic=2.0404% Legendary=1.6753% Apex=0.0215%
• Chance per card (bonus): Epic=54.3590% Legendary=25.1282% Apex=20.5128%
• Chance per crate (number of Common cards): 0=7.1901% (2.5773%) 1=26.7803% (24.0550%) 2=37.4047% (51.2887%) 3=23.2196% (22.0790%) 4=5.4052% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Fine cards): 0=33.0780% (29.5533%) 1=42.1555% (46.7354%) 2=20.1465% (21.2199%) 3=4.2792% (2.4914%) 4=0.3408% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Superior cards): 0=33.5678% (9.7079%) 1=42.1302% (85.0515%) 2=19.8288% (5.2405%) 3=4.1478% (0.0000%) 4=0.3254% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Epic cards): 0=83.6992% (83.9347%) 1=15.3591% (14.9485%) 2=0.9165% (1.0309%) 3=0.0249% (0.0859%) 4=0.0003% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Legendary cards): 0=89.5309% (89.6048%) 1=10.0363% (9.8797%) 2=0.4241% (0.5155%) 3=0.0086% (0.0000%) 4=0.0001% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (number of Apex cards): 0=96.4806% (96.4777%) 1=3.5164% (3.5223%) 2=0.0030% (0.0000%) 3=0.0000% (0.0000%) 4=0.0000% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Common cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=92.8099% (97.4227%) 2=66.0295% (73.3677%) 3=28.6248% (22.0790%) 4=5.4052% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Fine cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=66.9220% (70.4467%) 2=24.7666% (23.7113%) 3=4.6201% (2.4914%) 4=0.3408% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Superior cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=66.4322% (90.2921%) 2=24.3019% (5.2405%) 3=4.4731% (0.0000%) 4=0.3254% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Epic cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=16.3008% (16.0653%) 2=0.9417% (1.1168%) 3=0.0252% (0.0859%) 4=0.0003% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Legendary cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=10.4691% (10.3952%) 2=0.4328% (0.5155%) 3=0.0087% (0.0000%) 4=0.0001% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance per crate (at least this number of Apex cards): 0=100.0000% (100.0000%) 1=3.5194% (3.5223%) 2=0.0030% (0.0000%) 3=0.0000% (0.0000%) 4=0.0000% (0.0000%) 5=0.0000% (0.0000%)
• Chance to get at least 1 Apex in 15 crates: 41.5393%
• Number of crates to have 50% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 20
• Number of crates to have 75% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 39
• Number of crates to have 90% chance to get at least 1 Apex (rounded up): 65
• Raw data and script used to generate the above statistics available on GitHub.

As an aside, when everything is unlocked, you average about 15 gems per crate, which is absolutely terrible. Farming up enough gems this season so you can outright buy what you care about next season does not appear to be worthwhile.