Crown crate drop rates; or, how I spent way too much money on crates so you don't have to

lehran · December 2016

[Last updated 6 December 2016]

So I got a ton of crates to see what the drop rates and general mechanics were like, and here is what I discovered. I have 650 crates recorded, and below are the probabilities and other observations I currently have computed for this data. My data is 100% comprised from my own crates (I have opened 205 personally) as well as watching youtube videos of crates being opened (all videos showed at least 15 crates being opened without any cuts between crate openings; this filter was applied to ensure that I got actual results rather than a youtuber only showing the crates they liked/didn't like). Data from screenshots and text posts, where it is impossible to confirm my above criteria, are also excluded. The below list shows the numbers I've crunched, as well as other findings.

You are guaranteed to get at least one Superior quality or better card in every crate. My per-crate rates below do not reflect this (they were computed using the per-card probabilities); in other words, you'll see a per-crate rate for 4 Normal cards, even though such is actually impossible. The numbers are provided anyway so you can see that all of them add up to 100%.
Apex rewards only appear in the bonus card slot, they never appear as one of the 4 normal cards.
Bonus cards are always Epic quality or better.
Based on @Enodoc's spreadsheet here, the drop rates for any particular item within a tier are not the same. However, I did not record to this level of granularity in my dataset (I only recorded color of card, not what the card was or what category of card it was -- recording any more than that would likely burn me out as it'd take significantly longer to record and collate). I can neither confirm nor deny the accuracy of the spreadsheet due to me not recording said data. Please refer to that spreadsheet if you'd like to see rough estimates of how likely any particular reward is within a tier.
Color guide (for easy reference): Normal = White, Fine = Green, Superior = Blue, Epic = Purple, Legendary = Yellow, Apex = Orange
Total crates: 650
Chance of bonus card: 15.538%
Chance per card (normal): Normal = 47.923% Fine = 24.731% Superior = 23.962% Epic = 2.038% Legendary = 1.346%
Chance per card (bonus): Epic = 57.426% Legendary = 23.762% Apex = 18.812%
Chance per crate (number of Normal cards): 0=7.355% 1=27.073% 2=37.371% 3=22.927% 4=5.274%
Chance per crate (number of Fine cards): 0=32.097% 1=42.184% 2=20.790% 3=4.554% 4=0.374%
Chance per crate (number of Superior cards): 0=33.430% 1=42.138% 2=19.918% 3=4.184% 4=0.330%
Chance per crate (number of Epic cards): 0=83.875% 1=15.199% 2=0.902% 3=0.024% 4=0.000% 5=0.000%
Chance per crate (number of Legendary cards): 0=91.226% 1=8.477% 2=0.293% 3=0.005% 4=0.000% 5=0.000%
Chance per crate (number of Apex cards): 0=97.077% 1=2.923%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Normal cards): 0=100.000% 1=92.645% 2=65.572% 3=28.201% 4=5.274%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Fine cards): 0=100.000% 1=67.903% 2=25.718% 3=4.928% 4=0.374%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Superior cards): 0=100.000% 1=66.570% 2=24.432% 3=4.514% 4=0.330%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Epic cards): 0=100.000% 1=16.125% 2=0.927% 3=0.025% 4=0.000% 5=0.000%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Legendary cards): 0=100.000% 1=8.774% 2=0.298% 3=0.005% 4=0.000% 5=0.000%
Chance per crate (at least this number of Apex cards): 0=100.000% 1=2.923%

The exact script used to crunch these numbers, as well as the data set used to crunch them, is available here.

Rohamad_Ali · December 2016

There going to tell you to put this in an existing thread on the subject so copy / paste so you don't have to rewrite all that .

lehran · December 2016

My search-fu is apparently weak, I didn't see a thread on this already. Apparently it is here. I'd add my data onto that thread as well, except I didn't record exactly what I got in each crate because I assumed that all loot of the same tier had the same drop rate. Linking thread so other interested parties can find it.

Rohamad_Ali · December 2016

lehran wrote: »

My search-fu is apparently weak, I didn't see a thread on this already. Apparently it is here. I'd add my data onto that thread as well, except I didn't record exactly what I got in each crate because I assumed that all loot of the same tier had the same drop rate. Linking thread so other interested parties can find it.

Cool . Ya I just didn't want anyone that did this much research to get pinched by a mod unexpected and lose the work .

SaRuZ · December 2016

Funny how they are locking down all the crown crate threads huh?

Mayrael · December 2016

Very good job OP. Thanks a lot for sharing the results!

Peekachu99 · December 2016

SaRuZ wrote: »

Funny how they are locking down all the crown crate threads huh?

They're justifiably locking down all the lunatic ones where people are comparing crown crates to heroin addiction.

Cpt_Teemo · December 2016

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Prof_Bawbag · December 2016

SaRuZ wrote: »

Funny how they are locking down all the crown crate threads huh?

Nothing really funny or strange about it. There's already a toxic thread or two which when you consider what usually gets closed on here, the mods have been pretty lenient. There's also a thread discussing this exact aspect of the crates. If umpteen dozen threads were made about any other subject I doubt most of us would bat an eyelid if most of them were closed or condensed into 1 or 2 threads. The forum in general doesn't need cluttered up to the hilt with the same subject over and over again. Believe it or not, not everyone is here to talk about crown crates whether it's to be negative or positive.

Do the rest of us really need to endure 3 pages of threads on the same subject? The exact same thing happened after the 1T update. Many threads were closed, but 2 or 3 were allowed to run.

JimT722 · December 2016

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

They hired a marketing director who worked on SWTOR. She was hired sometime around dark brotherhood I believe.

notimetocare · December 2016

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Doing what most f2p/b2p games are doing with currency storea actually

Riga_Mortis · December 2016

Nice thread OP, cheers for putting the work in and sharing.

SantieClaws · December 2016

notimetocare wrote: »

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Doing what most f2p/b2p games are doing with currency storea actually

Not just the idea - but the actual person who designed and implemented that system.

Though the dislike of the this one is not directed at that individual. Someone else made a choice to employ them. Someone else made a choice to add that system here. Probably someone who has never even set foot in Tamriel themselves. Someone who sees the world only through the spreadsheets. A shame for them that their experience of life is so narrow. A shame they will never enjoy what we so enjoyed and that they have now tainted.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

Arundo · December 2016

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Arent SWTOR and ESO based on the same graphics engine ? If so GIEF companions like in SWTOR

JimT722 · December 2016

Arundo wrote: »

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Arent SWTOR and ESO based on the same graphics engine ? If so GIEF companions like in SWTOR

That really isn't needed. Plus they would have to go and rebalance all solo content for 2 players. Seems like a really bad idea.

arkansas_ESO · December 2016

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

The person who headed SWTOR's marketing department at the time cartel packs came in is now the head of ESO's marketing department, so you're likely right.

code65536 · December 2016

So if the chance of a bonus card is 16.1% and the chance of it being apex is 24.2%, then the chance of an apex per crate is 3.9%. My guess is that since it's more likely that they use rounder numbers, that the bonus card chance is 15%, and the bonus breakdown is 50/25/25, which would place it at 3.75% per crate.

If we use 3.75% as the chance of an apex per crate, then...

43% of players will get an apex mount within 15 crates
68% of players will get an apex mount within 30 crates
82% of players will get an apex mount within 45 crates
90% of players will get an apex mount within 60 crates
17% of players will not get an apex mount even after 46 crates (@Deltia is in this 17%)
1-in-10 players who open 60 crates will not get an apex reward--whether you think that's acceptable or appallingly high is a matter of opinion, of course

Arundo · December 2016

JimT722 wrote: »

Arundo wrote: »

Kyle1983b14_ESO wrote: »

I'm guessing they got the idea for crates from Swtor cartel market packs?

Arent SWTOR and ESO based on the same graphics engine ? If so GIEF companions like in SWTOR

That really isn't needed. Plus they would have to go and rebalance all solo content for 2 players. Seems like a really bad idea.

Should not be a problem, as we already get help with some quests from NPC's why not make it so that you can get a companion which you can gear up etc.

PS your opinion that this is a really bad idea, I find it to be a very good idea.

JKorr · December 2016

SaRuZ wrote: »

Funny how they are locking down all the crown crate threads huh?

They've always consolidated threads they think are duplicating discussions into one thread.

See how many different "dueling" and "open world pvp" and "finish the justice system" threads are open, compared to how many were started.

aisriyth_ESO · December 2016

So, it's funny you mentioned apex from bonus card only. I don't recall if I got an apex from a non bonus card or not (I feel like I did) but I definitely got the majority from bonus cards. In fact my bonus cards were almost always purple or above. I wonder if the bonus card is a higher % of something rarer?

I had a few packs that were an apex and a legendary.

lehran · December 2016

OP updated with more recent numbers; I'll just keep updating this thread until it gets locked, as it's easier to see numbers on an OP rather than buried on the 15th page of replies.

aisriyth_ESO wrote: »

So, it's funny you mentioned apex from bonus card only. I don't recall if I got an apex from a non bonus card or not (I feel like I did) but I definitely got the majority from bonus cards. In fact my bonus cards were almost always purple or above. I wonder if the bonus card is a higher % of something rarer?

I had a few packs that were an apex and a legendary.

Out of 650 crates, both mine and others, I have never once seen an Apex in one of the 4 normal slots. If it is possible, it is incredibly unlikely. At this point, as I have no observations or confirmation to the contrary, I'm maintaining my position that it is impossible.

driosketch · December 2016

lehran wrote: »

OP updated with more recent numbers; I'll just keep updating this thread until it gets locked, as it's easier to see numbers on an OP rather than buried on the 15th page of replies.

aisriyth_ESO wrote: »

So, it's funny you mentioned apex from bonus card only. I don't recall if I got an apex from a non bonus card or not (I feel like I did) but I definitely got the majority from bonus cards. In fact my bonus cards were almost always purple or above. I wonder if the bonus card is a higher % of something rarer?

I had a few packs that were an apex and a legendary.

Out of 650 crates, both mine and others, I have never once seen an Apex in one of the 4 normal slots. If it is possible, it is incredibly unlikely. At this point, as I have no observations or confirmation to the contrary, I'm maintaining my position that it is impossible.

I went back and checked my PTS reporting, as I pulled 3 apex mounts in two days and kept detailed notes. Second day, when I pulled two storm mounts, they were both from 4 card draws. Also of note, I pulled a blue card as well in each of those draws. So we know it was at least possible back during testing. Secondly, it seems there might be a hidden mechanism at work after you pull at least a blue card already, possibly explaining the link to the bonus card.

ZOS_DaryaK · December 2016

We've closed this thread, as has been noted, there is already an active discussion for this very topic here.

Thanks for understanding!