The Undaunted Chests ARE Rigged

Mettaricana · October 2016

I got 22 shadowrend in a row all varying weights all training... gf opened 14 hers got all divine or infused stuff from chest

Leandor · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Proves my point. Overall RNG is fine, but there will allways be individuals like me who open 700+ RotW boxes on PTS and get a grand total of 2 purple jewellery pieces and 15 blue jewellery pieces, but every conceivable useless weapon combination (resto of leki or sume such) at least 10 times.

Do not only look at the big overall picture. Start looking at individual's seed values and fiddle it until you get a more even distribution on an individual basis.

You will get a fabulous overall picture if you tailor RNG so that every individual has an even distribution, irrespective of the seed source.

MLRPZ · October 2016

@ZOS_RichLambert Pls do the same graphics for vMA RNG table

Wreuntzylla · October 2016

DaveMoeDee wrote: »

RNG does NOT mean that all possible items have an equal probability. It seems they decided to make crap more common than decent gear.

You and all your "agrees" should look up the meaning of RNG (or heck just "random"). RNG requires no recognizable pattern or irregularities.

Scorpion1959 · October 2016

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

Now before everyone says, "Duh." or "Champ, what are you talking about?" Hear me out for just a moment. You are far more likely to get items with the prosperous and training trait, than any other trait. Some of you already knew this, and some may say it's all RNG. However, the RNG for this particular loot table IS rigged.

I myself opened around 500 keys (on Mac), and around 80% of what I opened was either prosperous or training. Buddies of mine and guildies opened tons of keys as well, and all of which experienced around the same ratio I have, with the majority having prosperous or training gear. I watched a few YouTube videos of people opening chests with their keys, and all of those who I watched ended up having very bad 'luck' with prosperous and training traits appearing. Even @Deltia suffered this, if that means anything. Lol. I don't know if these 2 traits appear so frequently due to the majority of people being below CP cap who play overall, or what. But, things are definitely not 'balanced' in regards to loot table RNG for Undaunted chests.

Note:
I haven't opened any chests on PS4 yet, as the newest changes/patch/update hasn't gone live for console players yet. But, I will definitely post my findings here upon discovering them.

I watched the Deltia vid on Youtube. It was great! His reactions/expressions, were priceless. In fact, I think I'll go watch them again....... well, I got nothing better to do just now......ZOS!!!

madddscientistb14_ESO · October 2016

As far as the Delta video. He openly states in the video that he used his second account to scale down the dungeon to lvl 13? he said? Then took his main fully geared character through and solo'd the dungeons. Isn't that exploiting? Thats definitely not playing as intended. So he essentially hacked his way to 250 keys. If Zos knows about this type of play, and others doing it. It wouldn't surprise me if they did some scaling to have these people "waste" their keys. It woulda been better if Zos removed those keys and warned him for that type of play. Any way you look at it, he's exploiting the game to horde those keys. But if many players were also doing it, how do you go through all those players and take away their exploited keys?

Scorpion1959 · October 2016

SanTii.92 wrote: »

Panth141 wrote: »

OP - would it be possible for you to post your actual data, please? Just the traits - I'd be interested in doing some statistics to see what the true figures are - accounting for error.

He is just lying. There is no possible way that with 500 keys he got 80% training and prosperous, not even remotly close.

I wouldn't be too sure..... Watch the Deltia vid on Youtube.

Carbonised · October 2016

ookami007 wrote: »

I love these conversations. Did you guys forget that ZOS has ONE and ONLY ONE goal - make money. PERIOD. END OF STORY. STOP CONVERSATION.

The longer they can make you play, the more chance there is that you will spend more money - either through subscription or in game purchases. This is nothing new. Every game with subscriptions or in-app purchases works on this premise.

So, the longer they make you play, in order to get specific weapons, armor, etc., the more money they make - at least, theoretically. Everything they do - from the random percentages of drops to the random percentages of traits and their weights (ie. 5% for divines, 15% for training, etc) - is all set to push their goal - MAKE MONEY.

There is a reason ALL online games are grinds. Because if you got everything in the first month or two, they know most of you would get bored and quit.

So, they are going to game the system however they want to get you to spend more time in the game, so they can make more money.

This isn't rocket science. They are going to do what is best for them.

We benefit because they longer they make a profit, the longer the game will be around, get new content, etc. But never mistake the relationship - they are the farmer, we are the cows. And they will milk us as long as they can before we become ground beef.

It's kind of sad, really. As a long time gamer, most of my games have been about the experience, the story, the world, the atmosphere, the characters. Just take a game like Skyrim, I don't think many people played Skyrim to get the best equipment, I know I didn't.

I played Skyrim for the story and the experiences, and I still do, alongside many others, so many years after.

Sure, you can make an MMO that's all about making it time consuming to obtain the perfect gear setup, or you could focus on making a game that's worth for the experience in itself. It shouldn't really be such a controversial direction anyway.

AClockworkLime · October 2016

raidentenshu_ESO wrote: »

We dont want training and prosperous for endgaming gear. Please get rid of it.

You'd be better served by asking them why those traits -- training in particular -- is being added to endgame gear. If they just want to reward crap gear that people will instantly deconstruct, why not just throw something else in there instead; something that won't feel like a complete and total insult as a "reward." And yes, I'm using the word reward there quite incorrectly.

gard · October 2016

Training, Prosperous, and Well Fitted combined equate to ~36% according to Rich's numbers.
That's a pretty high chance to get decon fodder.

code65536 · October 2016

Scorpion1959 wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure..... Watch the Deltia vid on Youtube.

LOL. Deltia got less than 30% training/prosperous, which is only slightly higher than the 25% one would expect from a perfectly even distribution. In my book, that is indeed "not even remotely close" to 80%.

What Deltia did complain about was that he only got a small handful of perfect BiS items, and that much is true. Reinforced is a pretty bad trait. Sturdy is a bad trait if you're not tanking. Impenetrable and Well-Fitted are both bad traits if you are planning to use an item only in PvE. Divines is a lackluster trait if you're planning to use an item only in PvP. And Infused is just a middling neutral trait that is neither offensive nor BiS for a shoulder piece. Prosperous and Training (and, to a lesser extent, Reinforced) are the only universally-bad traits, but any trait can be bad, depending on the context.

Dubhliam · October 2016

Scorpion1959 wrote: »

SanTii.92 wrote: »

Panth141 wrote: »

OP - would it be possible for you to post your actual data, please? Just the traits - I'd be interested in doing some statistics to see what the true figures are - accounting for error.

He is just lying. There is no possible way that with 500 keys he got 80% training and prosperous, not even remotly close.

I wouldn't be too sure..... Watch the Deltia vid on Youtube.

The Deltia video is edited.
He only showed what he wanted to show.
Good drops and bad drops.
He didn't show all drops.

I got video of myself opening 151 Keys.

10% Training
11% Divines
12% Prosperous

As I said, unless someone shows us proof of rigged statistics, I will count this simply as untrustworthy whiney rants.

brandonv516 · October 2016

I've gotten almost every shoulder in impenetrable now (finally chokethorn!) and maybe 6 or 7 in divines. I'm pleased with the chests RNG.

Dubhliam · October 2016

Carbonised wrote: »

ookami007 wrote: »

I love these conversations. Did you guys forget that ZOS has ONE and ONLY ONE goal - make money. PERIOD. END OF STORY. STOP CONVERSATION.

The longer they can make you play, the more chance there is that you will spend more money - either through subscription or in game purchases. This is nothing new. Every game with subscriptions or in-app purchases works on this premise.

So, the longer they make you play, in order to get specific weapons, armor, etc., the more money they make - at least, theoretically. Everything they do - from the random percentages of drops to the random percentages of traits and their weights (ie. 5% for divines, 15% for training, etc) - is all set to push their goal - MAKE MONEY.

There is a reason ALL online games are grinds. Because if you got everything in the first month or two, they know most of you would get bored and quit.

So, they are going to game the system however they want to get you to spend more time in the game, so they can make more money.

This isn't rocket science. They are going to do what is best for them.

We benefit because they longer they make a profit, the longer the game will be around, get new content, etc. But never mistake the relationship - they are the farmer, we are the cows. And they will milk us as long as they can before we become ground beef.

It's kind of sad, really. As a long time gamer, most of my games have been about the experience, the story, the world, the atmosphere, the characters. Just take a game like Skyrim, I don't think many people played Skyrim to get the best equipment, I know I didn't.

I played Skyrim for the story and the experiences, and I still do, alongside many others, so many years after.

Sure, you can make an MMO that's all about making it time consuming to obtain the perfect gear setup, or you could focus on making a game that's worth for the experience in itself. It shouldn't really be such a controversial direction anyway.

I could not agree more.

People mostly even don't know how much better something is.
They simply heard it's better.
And since something is labeled as "the best", they have to have it.

I am seriously baffled at how low people can get to get 0,825% higher crit.

0,825% crit

Moltyr · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

I feel sorry for you.

Zyrudin · October 2016

Guys, why all the demand? Why all the obsession?

When you play in a Casino, do you demand to win what you want?

One of the previous comments showed a definition of negativity bias, which is exactly what is going on here.

There are two ways to handle this:

- Work your build with the traits you already have, regardless of how "useless" they are, until maybe a new trait drops some other time. In the meantime, you can enjoy all aspects of the game.

or

- Remain obsessively focused on obtaining specific pieces with specific traits, while complaining all day instead of actually playing the game for fun.

I do my daily pledges almost every day, so usually I open 4 chests a day. I get an even distribution of traits.
If I get a set piece with a better trait than an existing one, I'll replace it, but I'll still use the other one until a better one comes, if ever.

Even if your objective is not to "play for fun" but to "have fun being the best", I think this may be going the wrong way.

Real elite players do not pout over not getting the perfect drop, they adapt and work with what they have creatively. These are the guys that find ways to counter all the meta.

camknox · October 2016

madddscientistb14_ESO wrote: »

As far as the Delta video. He openly states in the video that he used his second account to scale down the dungeon to lvl 13? he said? Then took his main fully geared character through and solo'd the dungeons. Isn't that exploiting? Thats definitely not playing as intended. So he essentially hacked his way to 250 keys. If Zos knows about this type of play, and others doing it. It wouldn't surprise me if they did some scaling to have these people "waste" their keys. It woulda been better if Zos removed those keys and warned him for that type of play. Any way you look at it, he's exploiting the game to horde those keys. But if many players were also doing it, how do you go through all those players and take away their exploited keys?

It's neither exploiting nor hacking. Sure it's using a game mechanic to be advantageous but this same scaling down of a dungeon was done from the release of the Shadows xpak also to scale down the dungeons and farm motifs. The implementation of scaled V160 across the board seems to have stopped all that jazz now anyway.

Doc Longtooth · November 2016

So far I am finding the drop rate of Prosperous and Training items is skewed and they can drop as high as up to 75-80% in undaunted chests, from Treasure chests from Treasure maps and in Dungeons both normal and Vet. Not particularly what I want. However what seems to have been forgotten is the traits are not present in Trials or from "The Golden".

Odd they are not in these areas or is it a marketing ploy for players to buy items from "The Golden" even when some of the jewelry is way overpriced according to the MM value? Or is it part of the ploy to get people hooked on gambling lol.

I have written several E-mails to ZOS however they cannot change the game for one person and I have been directed to the forums. Going off what I have read of the posts even the Forum is not being ignored.

Either way I will utilize what I get as usual until something better drops.

On the up side the Psigic stuff has been increased in drop from really rare to a bit less rare. Or as one friend put it -0.00% to + .0001%

Hamiltonmath · November 2016

You people have no idea how statistics work. A sample size of 10 or 20 or even 1000 is not enough to work with. Everyone feels like they have cheap luck sometimes but the happiness fades when they do have good luck. Compare the number of threads about cheap rng with the number of threads about good rng.

S1ipperyJim · November 2016

camknox wrote: »

madddscientistb14_ESO wrote: »

As far as the Delta video. He openly states in the video that he used his second account to scale down the dungeon to lvl 13? he said? Then took his main fully geared character through and solo'd the dungeons. Isn't that exploiting? Thats definitely not playing as intended. So he essentially hacked his way to 250 keys. If Zos knows about this type of play, and others doing it. It wouldn't surprise me if they did some scaling to have these people "waste" their keys. It woulda been better if Zos removed those keys and warned him for that type of play. Any way you look at it, he's exploiting the game to horde those keys. But if many players were also doing it, how do you go through all those players and take away their exploited keys?

It's neither exploiting nor hacking. Sure it's using a game mechanic to be advantageous but this same scaling down of a dungeon was done from the release of the Shadows xpak also to scale down the dungeons and farm motifs. The implementation of scaled V160 across the board seems to have stopped all that jazz now anyway.

If he did that, it is 100% an exploit - not surprising since Deltia has used exploits a number of times in the past.

For your education:

"An exploit is the use of a bug or glitches, game system, rates, hit boxes, or speed, etc. by a player to their advantage in a manner not intended by the game's designers."

There is no argument that ZOS didn't intend players to log in using two different accounts to scale dungeons for farming purposes. However they do absolutely nothing if the people using exploits are big youtubers or streamers who promote their game. Another notable examples is Sypher who used a glitch to farm weapons:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9oFFvdwvRw he even brags in comments that his fastest run was 1:42

code65536 · November 2016

Doc Longtooth wrote: »

So far I am finding the drop rate of Prosperous and Training items is skewed and they can drop as high as up to 75-80% in undaunted chests, from Treasure chests from Treasure maps and in Dungeons both normal and Vet.

LOL, "can drop as high as"?

"Hey, I opened one chest, and it was Training. 100% drop rate!"

My first four Undaunted chest openings since One Tamriel had one Training and one Prosperous. So does that mean that Training/Prosperous has a drop rate of 50%?

That's not how things work.

And for the record, I've opened 203 Undaunted chests since One Tamriel and have received 43 items that were either Training or Prosperous, which is slightly lower than the 50.75 that I'd expect from a perfectly even distribution.

(I use an addon that logs every one of my Undaunted chest openings.)

Armitas · November 2016

RNG = Rigged Number Generator.

Clarkieson · November 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Wise man once said: " there are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics "

kendellking_chaosb14_ESO · November 2016

RunAway wrote: »

This was always the plan. People horde keys, so they make the chests weighted to junk, so people spend those keys. Then they come out and say "Oh, that's a bug, we'll fix it" and now no one has hundreds of keys to get the best items.

The problem with that logic is that you have players now not spending keys. As a result of testing by a few players and even if players don't use the keys they earned them. The keys are a reward you can use them how and when you want.

This has the side effect of "why bother" as long as your reward is trash that you will vender or decon then it's not worth it.

Maotti · November 2016

kendellking_chaosb14_ESO wrote: »

RunAway wrote: »

This was always the plan. People horde keys, so they make the chests weighted to junk, so people spend those keys. Then they come out and say "Oh, that's a bug, we'll fix it" and now no one has hundreds of keys to get the best items.

The problem with that logic is that you have players now not spending keys. As a result of testing by a few players and even if players don't use the keys they earned them. The keys are a reward you can use them how and when you want.

This has the side effect of "why bother" as long as your reward is trash that you will vender or decon then it's not worth it.

This is me . I rarely use the keys, i see no point in it.

code65536 · November 2016

kendellking_chaosb14_ESO wrote: »

RunAway wrote: »

This was always the plan. People horde keys, so they make the chests weighted to junk, so people spend those keys. Then they come out and say "Oh, that's a bug, we'll fix it" and now no one has hundreds of keys to get the best items.

The problem with that logic is that you have players now not spending keys. As a result of testing by a few players and even if players don't use the keys they earned them. The keys are a reward you can use them how and when you want.

This has the side effect of "why bother" as long as your reward is trash that you will vender or decon then it's not worth it.

Except this is all predicated on the unsubstantiated tin foil hat notion that there is weighting.

I've opened literally hundreds of keys on PTS and on Live and there is absolutely to reason for me to believe in any sort of weighting or bias nonsense.

And I have over 1400 keys right now, yet I have yet to see any sort of bias. I have had good luck, like medium divines Velidreth on my second key. And bad luck like never haven gotten heavy divines Skoria, ever. But that's all that it is: luck.

You can argue that the choice of using luck as the basis of a reward system is unfair. But it is utterly baseless to argue that the rolls are unfair or weighted or rigged.

Dubhliam · November 2016

reapthetempestrwb17_ESO wrote: »

Another notable examples is Sypher who used a glitch to farm weapons: he even brags in comments that his fastest run was 1:42

What the hell are you talking about?
What glitch?
There is no glitch in the video.

And a two minute normal FGI is far from impossible.
In fact, if you think nFG I in under two minutes is impossible without cheats, I guess you would call me a cheater after I wreck your sorry ass one hundred times in a row dueling you.

Stop pointing fingers at something you have no clue about.

Banana · November 2016

There are a number of traits that should be pissed off completely

Doc Longtooth · November 2016

Nice graphs however were the keys collected and used by one character or several? Also were they handed in at one specific Undaunted enclave and if so which one? The reason I am asking this is for the probability factor which can be different on different accounts and on different characters within one account. Of my 12 characters on my account some are better than others at getting traits that are not naff.

If you want a training set to grind CP fine any decent crafter can make it , The same is true of any of the nine traits.

My feelings on the RNG for Prosperous and Training is that it is seriously skewed. This is my finding in getting /helping friends to get certain sets in COA and throughout the game in all of its aspects.

It took me six months in Orsinium to get a Briarheart belt infused on 11 characters doing the six quets , group and solo on a daily basis. Friends got them easily enough but the one item eluded me. This also included opening random chests and buying Orsinium Treasure maps using a character with the 75 CP points in Treasure Hunter.

So a general rule is if you want a specific item now get friends and other friendly players to help in the process to up the odds when farming/trying to get a specific piece of equipment.

As to keys its randomly biased to training and Prosperous no matter which Undaunted enclave I use.
Now it is not bind on pick up this is better, I did this so that it became a daily grind in effect and nothing. This one piece of equipment eluded me. I have since bought one in a guild store that is divines.

Another friend has a character that has a 90% chance to get Malachite shards from any treasure chest.

Dubhliam · November 2016

@Doc Longtooth

Can you provide evidence of "skewed" drop rates.

It's not that hard. Take 100keys, go to an enclave (with the character you claim to have terrible luck) and record yourself opening 100 chests.

Post the video here.

I mean, if it is so obvious that the Undaunted chests are rigged, why did nobody provide proof yet?