The Undaunted Chests ARE Rigged

CombatPrayer

Giving prosperous and training to people that are level 45 and above makes zero sense. They should be given as a reward to under level 50. They should never be given as a reward over level 50 because then have minimal utility then and are only useful in rare situation - not even prosperous but training can be if you want to quickly train a skill line you had not used. In that case one would be more likely to craft a full set of training and go level up that skill line and would not want that inappropriate trait on their high level gear.

Makes no sense to have training and prosperous in a chest where nearly all the players who open them are above level 50. The logic of putting these items in there is just really not very sound and shows they really aren't trying to work with players but rather want to work against them. As dungeon drops they make sense because any level can roll through a dungeon and get a drop of a set where training and prosperous might be very well desired. As overland and undaunted chests, those numbers should be tweaked because the majority of farming being done for sets and keys being used at chests is by people at CP level, often cp 160 who are working on their end game max level gear. Everything else is throw away until then for most people and only used temporarily.

Freezoide

Dubhliam wrote: »

Give this guy a medal.

Oh, and btw...
You forgot to calculate the weight into the equation.
People often chase a specific shoulder meaning a specific set, with a specific trait in a specific weight.

Oh ffs, I totally forgot on weight! I now consider myself godlike lucky with my previously very first golden key (Velideth Medium Divine); nais ^^.

Jaronking

Ankael07 wrote: »

Im neither saying chests are rigged nor accepting a graphic that looks like its made by paint (I mean no offense Rich).
We need an official release of the drop codes so that we can observe with a third party program.

Pretty much this if the drop is really weight more heavily towards these two traits which I think they are they wouldn't post that because of the public outrage they would have.Who.wouldn't lie.

Also ZOs why the heck is my bank full with VMA restro I have at least gotten 20 back to back its ridiculous.

Dubhliam

hayaschwarz wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

Okay... so I did some testing on the PTS for One Tamriel this time.


A small testing sample, but it does seem to confirm what Rich said.
Around 12% chance for every trait.

Saying that you drop training and prosperous 80% of the time is just simply....
not true.

On how many keys did you base your Experiment, from what I counted to you had about 150 keys, which doesn't make your Experiment valid or true!
Besides the RNG of the Drops is still affected by the 12 different shoulders in 3 different weights, which drops the Chance of obtaining the specific peice in specific trait and weight to almost 0,33%! And that's realistically the number to get what I am looking for!

151 Keys.
A low pool does not make something not true. It's simply less accurate.
Rich Lambert has a more accurate chart that he linked in the second page of this thread.

And yes, even with equal chances for every set, trait and weight, you will end up with 288 different combinations for Maj's chest, an additional 288 combinations for Glirion's chest and 96 different combinations for Urgarlag's chest.

If you are only to open one chest, you would need on average 288 Keys to get a specific item.
That's 0,35%.

I said as much just a few posts above.

lardvader

In my case I seem to either have a lucky day or just bad rng. I'm still holding on to most of my keys and only open some when I need a shoulder for a perfect helmet.

Yesterday I opened 12 keys and got 8 prosp/training. No divines on the last 4. But on Friday I opened 14 keys. 5 of those were divines and great drops. Out of the last 9 I only got 3 prosp/training so a very good day.

Saturday I bought a Velidreth helmet from the golden and needed a shoulder. Got a medium divines on the first key(!) so didn't open any other.

I still got about 100 keys and I'm in no rush to spend all of them. I need stuff from trials and dungeons.

CombatPrayer

Skyrim had a modifier in all it's chests and corpse drops. I made mods for them to make the drops far less abysmal than they were. If ZOS went with that basic design, everything would be 100% represented and ZOS would not be lying on that point, however it would be more of a half truth because yes, all things would have to be represented equally as you would need to put 1 of each item in the pool, but that is not what determines what you pull from a chest. It's the modifiers. Each item could have a set modifier before you pull it and there might even be a second modifier for that group. IIRC that was how skyrim was. So looking at the table (it was more of a table design when pulled with the creation kit) there would be all these items that were part of different groups of items. But most of them you never saw due to all the modifying percentages. In the end you would get like 3 gold. Remember that? Yeah, modifiers up the wazoo. Seems they have done something quite similar here and due to design they can in truth say all items are equally represented but again, half truth. All items are equally represented but then there are modifiers that give you a 3% drop on divines of anything and a 15% drop of impen, training and prosperous.

silky_soft

Took me 27 keys to get 3 non prosperous piece, 2 were light Well fitted. That's not rng.

Troneon

hayaschwarz

Dubhliam wrote: »

hayaschwarz wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

Okay... so I did some testing on the PTS for One Tamriel this time.


A small testing sample, but it does seem to confirm what Rich said.
Around 12% chance for every trait.

Saying that you drop training and prosperous 80% of the time is just simply....
not true.

On how many keys did you base your Experiment, from what I counted to you had about 150 keys, which doesn't make your Experiment valid or true!
Besides the RNG of the Drops is still affected by the 12 different shoulders in 3 different weights, which drops the Chance of obtaining the specific peice in specific trait and weight to almost 0,33%! And that's realistically the number to get what I am looking for!

151 Keys.
A low pool does not make something not true. It's simply less accurate.
Rich Lambert has a more accurate chart that he linked in the second page of this thread.

And yes, even with equal chances for every set, trait and weight, you will end up with 288 different combinations for Maj's chest, an additional 288 combinations for Glirion's chest and 96 different combinations for Urgarlag's chest.

If you are only to open one chest, you would need on average 288 Keys to get a specific item.
That's 0,35%.

I said as much just a few posts above.

I don't see how true or correct and inaccurate can be synonyms! Regardless, as I said and you confirmed the Chance of getting the desired Piece is ridiculously low, not to mention looking at the number in the different way, that you will have 99,65% chance NOT to get it! And realistically that 0,35% might never happen….

Dubhliam

All I am saying is:

• If you are bold enough to insinuate something is rigged, you better have some tangible proof.

I did a test, the results indicate everything is in order.
I have it all on video, if someone still insists those results are not true.

Every trait has the same chance to drop.

Dubhliam

hayaschwarz wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

hayaschwarz wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

Okay... so I did some testing on the PTS for One Tamriel this time.


A small testing sample, but it does seem to confirm what Rich said.
Around 12% chance for every trait.

Saying that you drop training and prosperous 80% of the time is just simply....
not true.

On how many keys did you base your Experiment, from what I counted to you had about 150 keys, which doesn't make your Experiment valid or true!
Besides the RNG of the Drops is still affected by the 12 different shoulders in 3 different weights, which drops the Chance of obtaining the specific peice in specific trait and weight to almost 0,33%! And that's realistically the number to get what I am looking for!

151 Keys.
A low pool does not make something not true. It's simply less accurate.
Rich Lambert has a more accurate chart that he linked in the second page of this thread.

And yes, even with equal chances for every set, trait and weight, you will end up with 288 different combinations for Maj's chest, an additional 288 combinations for Glirion's chest and 96 different combinations for Urgarlag's chest.

If you are only to open one chest, you would need on average 288 Keys to get a specific item.
That's 0,35%.

I said as much just a few posts above.

I don't see how true or correct and inaccurate can be synonyms! Regardless, as I said and you confirmed the Chance of getting the desired Piece is ridiculously low, not to mention looking at the number in the different way, that you will have 99,65% chance NOT to get it! And realistically that 0,35% might never happen….

This thread is about training and prosperous.

At the end of the day, the combined percentage to get any set in prosperous or training is 25%, not 80% as OP likes to suggest.

A specific set will drop in training and prosperous 2% of the time. This includes all weights.

psychotic13

Out of all my keys infused and divines were the highest dropped and funny enough prosperous and training were the least dropped. It's RNG.

danno8

silky_soft wrote: »

Took me 27 keys to get 3 non prosperous piece, 2 were light Well fitted. That's not rng.

With 27 keys you are saying you must have had a streak of AT LEAST 8 prosperous in a row.

With 8 traits available the chances of rolling 8 prosperous in a row is approximately a 1 in 6 million event. And you are saying that this happened to you 3 times?

Ajaxduo

"These are the traits you are looking for.."

Zyrudin

Well, maybe I am missing out on a really fun aspect of ESO, but what exactly is the point of aiming for an absolutely mathematically perfect build?

I mean, can't the game be played if you get the set piece you want in training instead of divines, while you wait for a better trait to drop from the same set? It does eventually happen, so why all the bother?

Is it really worth all the frustration?

As I said, I may be missing out on a really fun thing about ESO, but I really don't get this Casino mentality.
More time is spent worried about the outcome of the final drop than actually playing and enjoying the game content solo, with friends, with guildmates, with randoms, etc.

This kind of thread is showing me the reason why top CP people go through the group finder and have zero patience or tolerance for whomever groups up with them: they are not playing the dungeon, they're fed up with the dungeon. They are obsessed by the perfect drop.

I do the undaunted daily pledges almost every day, some times with guildmates, some times with randoms on the group finder, and I have an acceptable collection of set material, optimal or not, to switch around and have fun. It's really fun to play.

Are you guys having fun?
No disrespect intended, honestly.

raglau

Zyrudin wrote: »

I mean, can't the game be played if you get the set piece you want in training instead of divines, while you wait for a better trait to drop from the same set? It does eventually happen, so why all the bother?

Well, it may never happen due to the odds etc. But what you have described is how I play it, if I get the core piece I want then I run with it. As I run 5/1/1, I can craft my own ligtht/heavy/med around the set so that I get the Undaunted bonus.

It's a bit like looking out for that rare vintage car for years and one comes along but the colour is bad or it has a bad factory option pack. You buy it regardless, then when the right colour or option appears on the market you trade it out. You simply can't have it all on a plate. These items are supposed to be rare, not like you're picking bespoke off the shelves in the supermarket at each run.

Fallen_Ray

Spent the last few weeks farming dungeons and keys and still no divines. Only training, prosperous and on occasions Infused. Rich lambert may convince some in here with his pretty colorful project but my experience shows the opposite
(at least to me).

The percentages in those tables are complete utter bollocks. I used to get better traits in the days of the orsinium DLC. Whatever the hell they do to "even" the traits of monster set drops sets is beyond me and not working out at all.

Besides monster sets are jnot all that necessary. They look nice and have a nice bonus but they are NOT required to make a competitive build.

Vythri

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)



...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.


Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Yeah, but when you combine the training and prosperous traits (for Deltia personally), which nobody wants and everybody wants removed, it ends up being 29.719% of the drops, which is unacceptable. Basically almost 1/3 of the time you open a chest, it's a trait that has ZERO use to an endgame player. So thanks for proving the point.

Malmai

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)



...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.


Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

R.i.g.g.e.d.

Preyfar

I feel like at least 50% of the gear I get from the undaunted chests are Training or Prosperous, and I've opened 10+ keys in a row and ONLY gotten those two traits.

Dubhliam

Vythri wrote: »

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)



...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.


Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Yeah, but when you combine the training and prosperous traits (for Deltia personally), which nobody wants and everybody wants removed, it ends up being 29.719% of the drops, which is unacceptable. Basically almost 1/3 of the time you open a chest, it's a trait that has ZERO use to an endgame player. So thanks for proving the point.

1/4th.
The average percentage for each trait is 12,5%

Willard

Wow, I thought my 37 keys was a lot:) lol 500!
I got more reinforced (9 of 37) than anything, but overall a good spread and got Divines(5 of 37) in the sets I actually wanted.
The rest were:
6 of 37 Prosperous
5 of 37 Well Fitted
4 of 37 Sturdy
4 of 37 Training
3 of 37 Infused
1 of 37 Impen

olsborg

I get 4 keys just about everyday, I get atleast 1 training and 1 prosperous everyday....why WHY...

Dubhliam

Negativity bias

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RinaldoGandolphi

RNG has been very unkind to me. I didn't get my 1st Kena shoulder or head drop until a week before DB. I cleared that place numerous times.

I have cleared VMA numerous times haven't seen a single Sharpened destro staff of any kind. I gave up there its simply not going to drop. All I get are useless swords and shields in useless traits. The RNG in this game has hated me since launch all my friends get everything and I get trash for months and months on end....

maybe it is bad luck, but there should be a weight system in place to prevent folks from never getting the item they are after...at some point the system needs to increase your chances

Atarax

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)



...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.


Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Hi Rich,

Assuming those stats are true, it sort of misses the problem, and a potential solution.

Problem: People at high end do not want Prosperous or Training and want whatever set pieces they're targeting for their build, they want to be rewarded for the time they spend in dungeons.

Solution: Rather than give keys, give a universal currency, which also replaces AP, you can earn it through PVP or through running Trials, dungeons, etc. at differing rates; then let us buy whatever monster sets etc. we want from a permanent vendor that has ALL set items (because not everyone can get online to visit the PvP vendor on Saturday and Sunday and wait for another rng mechanic to hopefully give them access to the set they want). Problem solved.

Even if it takes a while to earn the currency, at least people will know they will get whatever item they want, eventually.

I know some people (that like showing off their epeen and have masochistic tendencies and feel everyone should go through the same ordeal they went through to earn their stuff) will protest, but something tells me those people are not the majority of your subscriber base.

Silver_Strider

Opened 60 chests in total after 1T came to consoles.

Reinforced: 7
Training: 8
Prosperous: 4
Sturdy: 12
Infused: 15
Divines: 2
Impenetrable: 5
Well-Fitted: 7

Idk, RNGesus was feeling like giving me infused Shoulders. My divines were Heavy Velidreth and Light Chokethorn shoulders

Regardless, don't think they are rigged, more so that RNG is just evil.

ronrobaina

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

Now before everyone says, "Duh." or "Champ, what are you talking about?" Hear me out for just a moment. You are far more likely to get items with the prosperous and training trait, than any other trait. Some of you already knew this, and some may say it's all RNG. However, the RNG for this particular loot table IS rigged.

I myself opened around 500 keys (on Mac), and around 80% of what I opened was either prosperous or training. Buddies of mine and guildies opened tons of keys as well, and all of which experienced around the same ratio I have, with the majority having prosperous or training gear. I watched a few YouTube videos of people opening chests with their keys, and all of those who I watched ended up having very bad 'luck' with prosperous and training traits appearing. Even @Deltia suffered this, if that means anything. Lol. I don't know if these 2 traits appear so frequently due to the majority of people being below CP cap who play overall, or what. But, things are definitely not 'balanced' in regards to loot table RNG for Undaunted chests.

Note:
I haven't opened any chests on PS4 yet, as the newest changes/patch/update hasn't gone live for console players yet. But, I will definitely post my findings here upon discovering them.

I can feel it..... I can feel some wiseass Dev coming in and say the three stupid and annoying magical words... "Working as intended" XD

notimetocare

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)



...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.


Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Yea... Say all you want. It is not balanced in the slighted. Smaller size, but I went 40 keys this last week trying to get a velidreth shoulder. all were chudan and warden (except for 2 kena) and the vast majority were prosperous and training. Not a single divines in 40.

Soafee

I don't know much about what you're talking about but I do know how RNG works and I don't think you can say this is rigged.

You have a 100% chance of loot dropping from a chance, right?

So you take:

1% of the exact trait/stats you want
3% of the second best traits you want
6% of the 3rd
40% of the 4th best
50% of the ones you don't want.

Your odds are You have 1 in 100 boxes of getting what you want, but you have no idea where in that 1 in 100 you actually are. You could be -500 in 100 to get it because there are 500 other people opening them at the same time. It could actually take you 600 boxes or more to get what you want.

That's RNG it's exactly how a slot machine works. You have a 1 in 1000000 chance of hitting jackpot but if there are 100 people spinning then you have like .001% chance of that 1% chance because it's split between the 100 people.

That's how I interpret it.