Fragment Ratio from provisioning discovery thread

whyB · August 2015

Lokustreign wrote: »

Woolenthreads wrote: »

Lokustreign wrote: »

The fragments are considered epic (purple) quality trophy drops. If you are a low-level character with maxed provisioning you won't be seeing top-tier caches from turning in writs because you can't turn in to all locations.

I have a level 32 Nightblade <snip> Even though his skills are maxed out at 4/4 and 6/6 he only gets standard cooking mats upon completion. No epic mats!

While I'm sure there are random players out there who will swear up and down they've gotten that one Bervez Juice/Frost Mirriam from a level 40 cache that one time...the truth of the matter is that epic materials will only drop consistently from the highest level caches. <snip>

To get the fragments you will want to be a minimum level of VR1 in order to turn in the highest level writ (in Belkarth), with maxed 4/4 and 6/6 level 50 provisioning.

Not Random Players, Experienced Players like Nestor, Urquan and Myself. We have all gotten Corinthe Corn Beef Recipes, Bervez Juice and Frost Mirriam from characters doing Recipe Improvement 2 Writs. That means you just need a character with Provisioning L20 and to get to te Capital in the second Region.

The kicker on this is RNG chance. At the moment a VR character with RI6 doing writs in Craglorn seems to have a chance of 1 in 100 of getting a writ. It has been stated in a developers thread that the lower the Recipe Improvement the lower the chance. So lets say that it increases two-fold, at RI5 it is therefore 1 in 200, RI4 1 in 400, RI3 1 in 800 and RI2 1 in 1600. Put another way, it is statistically unlikely that low level characters with low Recipe Improvement will pick a fragment.Using the numbers I have stated, doing a writ every day on RI2 characters a fragment is likely to drop, on average, once every 7 or so years.

CidxLucy wrote: »

nick59349b14_ESO wrote: »

With these ratio's how are people getting all of them and selling the potions in the guild stores? Crazy.

I myself started saving each day long before the update came out 1/16.
Like with the fish people had a ton the day the updated happening because they farm the fish before the updated and cut then after the update.

Once you get to a certain point as a player you make money and have nothing to use it on, there are plenty of players claiming they have gold in the millions. So if you don't care about "wasting" time collecting fragments you sell them and people who have lots of money buy the fragments.

# Edit: The chance I noted per RI drop is a geometric progression, I think it's far more likely that it's a linear progrssion ie RI4 is times 3, RI3 is times 4 and RI2 is times 5. That still means that a character of RI2 is likely to get a fragment only once every 20 months (or longer than you're likely to play them ).

Has anyone gotten a fragment other than from turning in the top-tiered writs? From a IV or V cache?

Yes, I got my first one last night (character level 39, provisioning level 42'ish, writ level = zone 4)

Lokustreign · August 2015

whyB wrote: »

Lokustreign wrote: »

Woolenthreads wrote: »

Lokustreign wrote: »

The fragments are considered epic (purple) quality trophy drops. If you are a low-level character with maxed provisioning you won't be seeing top-tier caches from turning in writs because you can't turn in to all locations.

I have a level 32 Nightblade <snip> Even though his skills are maxed out at 4/4 and 6/6 he only gets standard cooking mats upon completion. No epic mats!

While I'm sure there are random players out there who will swear up and down they've gotten that one Bervez Juice/Frost Mirriam from a level 40 cache that one time...the truth of the matter is that epic materials will only drop consistently from the highest level caches. <snip>

To get the fragments you will want to be a minimum level of VR1 in order to turn in the highest level writ (in Belkarth), with maxed 4/4 and 6/6 level 50 provisioning.

Not Random Players, Experienced Players like Nestor, Urquan and Myself. We have all gotten Corinthe Corn Beef Recipes, Bervez Juice and Frost Mirriam from characters doing Recipe Improvement 2 Writs. That means you just need a character with Provisioning L20 and to get to te Capital in the second Region.

The kicker on this is RNG chance. At the moment a VR character with RI6 doing writs in Craglorn seems to have a chance of 1 in 100 of getting a writ. It has been stated in a developers thread that the lower the Recipe Improvement the lower the chance. So lets say that it increases two-fold, at RI5 it is therefore 1 in 200, RI4 1 in 400, RI3 1 in 800 and RI2 1 in 1600. Put another way, it is statistically unlikely that low level characters with low Recipe Improvement will pick a fragment.Using the numbers I have stated, doing a writ every day on RI2 characters a fragment is likely to drop, on average, once every 7 or so years.

CidxLucy wrote: »

nick59349b14_ESO wrote: »

With these ratio's how are people getting all of them and selling the potions in the guild stores? Crazy.

I myself started saving each day long before the update came out 1/16.
Like with the fish people had a ton the day the updated happening because they farm the fish before the updated and cut then after the update.

Once you get to a certain point as a player you make money and have nothing to use it on, there are plenty of players claiming they have gold in the millions. So if you don't care about "wasting" time collecting fragments you sell them and people who have lots of money buy the fragments.

# Edit: The chance I noted per RI drop is a geometric progression, I think it's far more likely that it's a linear progrssion ie RI4 is times 3, RI3 is times 4 and RI2 is times 5. That still means that a character of RI2 is likely to get a fragment only once every 20 months (or longer than you're likely to play them ).

Has anyone gotten a fragment other than from turning in the top-tiered writs? From a IV or V cache?

Yes, I got my first one last night (character level 39, provisioning level 42'ish, writ level = zone 4)

I love you. Thanks for a a useful response. Serious reading comprehension problems on these forums when I just need a simple answer! Jesus Christ...SMH...

Woolenthreads · August 2015

Lokustreign wrote: »

Woolenthreads wrote: »

Austacker wrote: »

I'm currently on a Level 50 Provisioner on my main V5 console character.

I need to ask before I consider levelling alts (and this thread didn't really nail down the answer I'm after)

1 - What's the minimum CHARACTER level requirement to get a chance at frag drops?
2 - What's the minimum PROVISIONING level requirement to get a chance at frag drops?
3 - What level writs can purple mats for provisioning be rewarded?

I am only looking to prep myself for Frag farming and purple mat provision farming when these go to console and need to know if my time is better spent levelling say 2 extra characters to V1 for just provisioning or levelling 10 characters to level 20 for provisioning.

Thanks for anyone who can answer those questions!

The simplistic answer to 1) and 2) are that we assume that L6 and L1 are the levels at which fragments drop respectively. The drop is random but the lower the level of Recipe Improvement the lower the chance of the fragments being generated.

It may be, however, that the chance doesn't come up unless purple recipes and mats will drop which means you need L20 in Provisioning because purple recipes don't drop until you do Recipe Improvement 2 Writs, or search containers, in Region two.

What do you mean by "L20"? I'm still learning all the acronyms for this game. And by "Region two" are you referring to a player's respective Silver area?

The skills all have levels so L20 means level 20 (which I am using specific to the skill). You need to have level 20 provisioning before you can put a point into Recipe Improvement. By "Region Two" I am referring to the second region of your faction, AFAIK many of us tend to just refer to the Cadwell Areas as Silver and Gold.

I'll admit though that I am using unusual nomenclature when I refer to the writs and the level of perk as saying Level 2 Writ is confusing as well as inaccurate so I prefer RI2 (meaning Recipe Improvement 2).

Lokustreign wrote: »

<snip>Also, @Woolenthreads I think you're missing my point. It's not that you never get epic mats from doing lower level turn ins, it's that it's much more likely that you will get them, and probably the Psijic recipe fragments from doing the higher level turn ins. Much more likely = more efficient = saves time. I'm not concerned with random occurrences, I want, and most likely the community wants, to know what the most efficient way of farming the fragments is.

The way you wrote your comment implied that unless you were doing craglorn RI6 writs a player couldn't get a fragment. It's of no matter, the likelihood is, as we have both acknowledged, extremely low. In truth, it seems like a waste of time for the people most likely to get the fragments, if you consider that they are near the end of level progression. Fortunately that'll change soon

Talimar · August 2015

Today, I got a fragment from a L3 recipe improvement provisioner in Shornhelm.

Totals to date:

4 fragments from max provisioners, Craglorn in 91 writs.
1 fragment from max provisioners, non-Craglorn in 116 writs.
1 fragment from max provisioner, L3 recipe improvement in 58 writs.

Severeds · August 2015

2 lvl 50 provisioners
2 Writs a day since patch (-4 writs for 2 days missed because of server fail)

0 fragments

helediron · August 2015

Done now maybe 150 max level writs with VR characters. Not counting exactly. Got yesterday my second full recipe

.

Woolenthreads · August 2015

OK, I received a third fragment on Saturday August 15th. That is 62 days after it was introduced, so I had completed 111 RI.6 writs.

Woolenthreads · August 2015

And the fourth today, much to my surprise on my 119th R.I.6 Writ.

# edit; 131 R.I.6 Writs and I get a fifth. It's weird, it looks like there's been a serious increase but I guess that's RNG for you.

# edit; 135 R.I.6 Writs and I get a sixth.

Woolenthreads · August 2015

OK this will probably seem like necro-ing but it isn't. I just got my third Fragment in a week, that is 139 R.I. 6 Writs and I have gotten a seventh Fragment. It leads me to ask the question.

Has anyone seen an increase in the fragments in the last week/fortnight?

#Edit: Getting 3 in a week freaks me out a little.

Tarukmockto · August 2015

I actually got my first Fragment this weekend. I almost fell out of my chair I was so shocked! Now about those other 6 Fragments, maybe by Easter. lol!

Woolenthreads · September 2015

Tarukmockto wrote: »

I actually got my first Fragment this weekend. I almost fell out of my chair I was so shocked! Now about those other 6 Fragments, maybe by Easter. lol!

Or it'll do something weird and you'll get several within the space of days. There's also the glass motif to hunt for now

I_killed_Vivec · September 2015

Tarukmockto wrote: »

I actually got my first Fragment this weekend. I almost fell out of my chair I was so shocked! Now about those other 6 Fragments, maybe by Easter. lol!

Me too!

I can't complain that the RNG gods have deserted me, they are just very, very angry with me - they must be to tease me with a single fragment after all this time. I don't expect any more soon...

LadyDestiny · September 2015

5 provisioners doing craglorn writs No fragments yet. This is bs Zos. How are so many people getting full recipes more than once? So tired of the rng in this game.

Woolenthreads · September 2015

LadyDestiny wrote: »

5 provisioners doing craglorn writs No fragments yet. This is bs Zos. How are so many people getting full recipes more than once? So tired of the rng in this game.

It is 81 days after it was originally released. Have you been doing Writs with all 5 characters for the entire time? I know that my second character to do RI6 writs spent 13 days doing RI5 writs.

The problem with "uncontrolled" RNG is that this is exactly how it works. However I can truthfully say I have a recipe because I had lots of excess gold and knew, once I had 5 fragments, that the odds of getting what I needed, rather than repeats, was going to be quite low. When I had 3 fragments I shrugged and didn't expect another for months which is why what I did get was a surprise.

The Glass Page chase is going to be like this but possibly worse, has anyone opened up a thread for it?

MikeB · September 2015

Been doing Prov Writs on 1 max and 4 below 20 Provs since Psijic Ambrosia was released and zero frags. I upped one of the sub 20 toons last week to max and still no frag. Between my friends we have 5 max Prov's and 4 lowbie Prov's that have been doing Writs since Day and and all we have is 1 frag between us all

CavalierKing · September 2015

1 level 50 provisioner doing writs everyday since Xbox One patch. Received 4-6 purple recipes and 0 psijic ambrosia fragments.

Woolenthreads · September 2015

CavalierKing wrote: »

1 level 50 provisioner doing writs everyday since Xbox One patch. Received 4-6 purple recipes and 0 psijic ambrosia fragments.

The Level of Provisioning is not relevant, the level of "Recipe Improvement" is. Unless you are doing Recipe Improvement 6 Writs, in Craglorn, and I assume you are, the odds are significantly worse. All of my characters have L50 Provisioning, only the VR's are in Craglorn doing RI6 writs. Only the VR's have received Fragments.

Soleya · September 2015

After doing over 120 writs (2 level 50 provisioners, one character level 20 and one VR2), I finally got fragments. In fact I got 5 fragments in one week, and then about 40 more writs later, have gotten no more. Thankfully my wife gave me the 2 fragments I was missing, since she's gotten about 15+ fragments in the same time.

Woolenthreads · September 2015

Slayer9292_ESO wrote: »

After doing over 120 writs (2 level 50 provisioners, one character level 20 and one VR2), I finally got fragments. In fact I got 5 fragments in one week, and then about 40 more writs later, have gotten no more. Thankfully my wife gave me the 2 fragments I was missing, since she's gotten about 15+ fragments in the same time.

Nice!

As an "apology" to CavalierKing for what now appears to me to be a relatively rude comment I offer a concept which I thought about.

Someone suggested that the Fragment pickup was a lottery but I think its possible that it's a Progressive Drop set on a regional basis. In this system, each provisioning reward bag would have a number set from 4 to 7 and they are chosen in a cycle by the players within a region. The randomness comes from who choses to take the next bag in the progression. If they chose to take it at the right time they get a bag with 7 items, item 6 being a randomly generated recipe and item 7 being a randomly generated fragment plus ingredients. If they get a bag with 6 items or less then they get a randomly generated recipe plus ingredients. The ingredient and recipe quality is then generated from an appropriate list.

I only considered this because I have never gotten a fragment with less than a full bag.

# edit: A concept that can't be proven or disproven I admit, in part because players are like a herd of cats