Fragment Ratio from provisioning discovery thread

helediron

3 more writs, one fragment.
Total 109 writs, ten fragments.
Frags have been rather well distributed. I've got only one frag three times.

I_killed_Vivec

Still none.

And I sliced 240 fish yesterday without a roe drop

But I got a Kuta in my writ reward today, so maybe the RNG gods will smile on me!

Faugaun

update july 5 - 10th results

36x level 6 writs
48x level 4 writs
12x level 1 writs

0 frags

PlagueMonk

I have 2 lvl 6 prov and 1 lvl 4.

Been doing writs on all 3 every day since the inception and gotten 2 (1 from a lvl 6 and 1 from my lvl 4)

Guess I'm doing better than some but worse than the majority it would seem.

This drop rate really needs to be bumped for those paying monthly.

Nebthet78

I finally found my second one yesterday. lol. after doing 3 level 6/day since the last time I found one and 1 level 4 per day. The odds of finding one are crap for some people.

Surfinginhawaii

I've done approximately 132 writs and I've received 5 frags. I received a duplicate frag yesterday but was able to trade it with someone for one I didn't have. I just need frag 1 and 6.

Woolenthreads

39 RI6 Writs completed 1 fragment.

*dances* (Got my first fragment!) Shaddap I'm allowed to be pleased you swine . Also 13 RI.5., 52 RI4 and 78 RI1 writs.

helediron

Woolenthreads wrote: »

39 RI6 Writs completed 1 fragment.

*dances* (Got my first fragment!) Shaddap I'm allowed to be pleased you swine . Also 13 RI.5., 52 RI4 and 78 RI1 writs.

Oh noes, i stopped doing writs and you immediately got yours. It was me after all stealing all your RNG! Good news is that i'll be going to summer cottage for few days and i have not yet put up net there. All my RNG are belong to you.

Surfinginhawaii

I just lucked out, 138 writs and 6 frags, I now only need frag no. 6.

neueregel

232 writs - 0 fragments

87 level V I- 0
145 level IV - 0

Robbmrp

snowmanflvb14_ESO wrote: »

12 writs no frags

I'm where you are. I've done at least 12 with nothing on them at all. My wifes gotten 2 and done the same amount as me.

Nebthet78

It would probably be a lot easier for those with bad RNG to just go buy the frags. You can find them in a few of the guild stores now, but you actually have to search by price. Put in like 60-125,000 for a price range and choose purple item and it should help. I could never find them by using the drop down menus.

Nestor

Nebthet78 wrote: »

I could never find them by using the drop down menus.

They are a Trophy in the Consumables subset.

Nestor

I just got my 7th Fragment this morning. It's a dup, so I need to trade it.

However this weekend was very good to me, 4 fragments.

Reverb

I've done three max-level writs each day since it began. I have 5 fragments, and a duplicate of frag VII. My hope is to trade the duplicate for one of the ones I need tonight, and just buy the last one instead of hoping for favorable rng.

neueregel

I finally got a fragment (VII) on my 240th writ... I cant believe it took that many to get the first one. Ironically, I sent in a bug report a couple hours before this...

robeauch

On the NA megaserver, fragment prices at the various guild vendors seem to have stabilized at a low of around 70,000. (Plenty of folks selling them higher than that; almost no one selling them lower.)

Given that you'll get 664 gold for completing a tier 6 writ (counting the ESO+ bonus), you could look at the odds from a financial perspective: If you complete 107 writs, you *always* get a fragment -- from the guild vendor. You *might* get a fragment from the writs as well, but you definitely can get one from the vendor at that point.

Effectively, then, I think you can consider the odds of getting a fragment to be no lower than one percent (rounding) -- because 100 writs will always get you a fragment of your choice, plus a possible random one as well.

Faugaun

robeauch wrote: »

On the NA megaserver, fragment prices at the various guild vendors seem to have stabilized at a low of around 70,000. (Plenty of folks selling them higher than that; almost no one selling them lower.)

Given that you'll get 664 gold for completing a tier 6 writ (counting the ESO+ bonus), you could look at the odds from a financial perspective: If you complete 107 writs, you *always* get a fragment -- from the guild vendor. You *might* get a fragment from the writs as well, but you definitely can get one from the vendor at that point.

Effectively, then, I think you can consider the odds of getting a fragment to be no lower than one percent (rounding) -- because 100 writs will always get you a fragment of your choice, plus a possible random one as well.

This is incorrect I show sales in the last 3 days in kiosks on certain fragments numbers (110k sales data from 5 big trade guilds over 30 days)...as low as 45k and the trend still appears in mm to be a linear decline.

Rosveen

I'm doing 3 max level writs every day, I received 6 fragment so far, including one duplicate. When I trade it, I'll be missing only one, which I can easily buy. Completing the recipe in a month of doing exactly what I was doing before anyway? Not bad at all.

helediron

robeauch wrote: »

On the NA megaserver, fragment prices at the various guild vendors seem to have stabilized at a low of around 70,000. (Plenty of folks selling them higher than that; almost no one selling them lower.)

Given that you'll get 664 gold for completing a tier 6 writ (counting the ESO+ bonus), you could look at the odds from a financial perspective: If you complete 107 writs, you *always* get a fragment -- from the guild vendor. You *might* get a fragment from the writs as well, but you definitely can get one from the vendor at that point.

Effectively, then, I think you can consider the odds of getting a fragment to be no lower than one percent (rounding) -- because 100 writs will always get you a fragment of your choice, plus a possible random one as well.

I think the prices will continue to fall because eventully the recipe will be common. There is no rarity factor combined to continuous need like in nirncrux. Ambrosia recipe is like Dwemer motifs - once acquired then forgotten and frags go to sale.

Ourorboros

SpAEkus wrote: »

Ourorboros wrote: »

Still trying to figure out why the one alt has to turn in writ IV at fighters guild instead of Cold Harbor. All alts did the same routine, and 4 others below level 10 turn in at Cold Harbor.

Any chance you started the quest line on the others and not that alt? Or it isn't getting credit for starting it?

Otherwise there is some other issue that isn't following what should be happening Writ IV 4/6 is still in 1-50 zone, 5/6 Writ V should move to Cold Harbor but only if quest-line started (Hollow City Guardian at front gate).

I considered that maybe I didn't complete the quest in Cold Harbor, but confirmed that I did complete it. I have the quest goals in my journal. No idea why only that alt get sent to the next lowest tier instead of Cold Harbor. Not all bad though, as I have gotten several missing recipes from those writs. I could /bug it, but I don't care that much since I already got all the psjic fragments.

Jofish

I, for one, will be swearing off both fishing and provisioning writs for a while... have received 6 frags and either traded or bought and sold, and one I traded 5 perfect roe for... this is with 4 6/6 craglorn provs, each of whom were able to get one whether they were maxed in anything else but the 6/6 : but I tire, so i'm vending all my premade stuff and going back to enchanting writs... ;D
So what I'm saying is it cost me time but no money to get the7 frags... and I have the recipe for convenience and not to make a killing...

neueregel

neueregel wrote: »

I finally got a fragment (VII) on my 240th writ... I cant believe it took that many to get the first one. Ironically, I sent in a bug report a couple hours before this...

Just an update... I got another fragment (V) about 12 hours later... so maybe the bug report helped... or it could be a coincidence... but 29 days, 232 writs and 0 frags.. then 2 in 12 hours seems fishy to me...

Nestor

I finally completed my Recipe last night. Since Friday, I have been getting a Fragment a day. I traded two of them for ones I needed and made the Recipe. Yay!!!

I made some Ambrosia for the player who traded me the 7th Fragment (using their Roe) as a thank you. They had not made the recipe yet.

SpAEkus

Nestor wrote: »

I finally completed my Recipe last night. Since Friday, I have been getting a Fragment a day. I traded two of them for ones I needed and made the Recipe. Yay!!!

I made some Ambrosia for the player who traded me the 7th Fragment (using their Roe) as a thank you. They had not made the recipe yet.

Does that indicate there may be an actual bug with others never having received one since the patch? I haven't heard of a hot or stealth patch that would suddenly boost the RNG that high compared to many of the other posters here?

helediron

SpAEkus wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

I finally completed my Recipe last night. Since Friday, I have been getting a Fragment a day. I traded two of them for ones I needed and made the Recipe. Yay!!!

I made some Ambrosia for the player who traded me the 7th Fragment (using their Roe) as a thank you. They had not made the recipe yet.

Does that indicate there may be an actual bug with others never having received one since the patch? I haven't heard of a hot or stealth patch that would suddenly boost the RNG that high compared to many of the other posters here?

Not really. Even i made joke posts about this. But this is just normal RNG behaviour. Looking over the posts, the chance has been between zero and ten percent. I make now a completely statistically bad estimate that actual drop rate is five percent at highest tier (i.e one chance in twenty). That means that a player with one character gets one fragment in three weeks because there is only one dice roll per day. Pick up the "three weeks". I highly doubt there have been any buffs to RNG. It's simply the RNG firing randomly within that period.

LordAsp

56 provisioning writs between 2 characters and still only the one fragment drop from 2nd day after patch.

LordAsp

Now 58 writs and only 1 fragment from 2nd day of patch. I can't remember what Provisioner vessel it gave me when I did get the fragment but every day since I have been getting Provioner Pack VI and no fragments. So it's been pickled carrot slurry/arenthian brandy or fresh apples & eidar cheese/khenarthi's wings chai quest items and no fragments.

Main character (VR14) has lvl 50 Provisioning with: Recipe Quality 4/4, Recipe Improvement 6/6, Gourmand 3/3, Connoisseur 3/3, Chef 3/3, Brewer 3/3, Hireling 3/3

2nd character (VR3) has lvl 50 Provisioning with: Recipe Quality 4/4, Recipe Improvement 6/6, Gourmand 2/3, Connoisseur 0/3, Chef 1/3, Brewer 1/3, Hireling 1/3

7/17/2015 60 writs now. No fragment drops. I learned the full recipe yesterday after purchasing all the parts.

Reverb

I traded a duplicate last night, and then gave in and bought the last frag I needed from a guild traitor. I'm interested in seeing how many fragments I get now that I already have the recipe.

I was kind of surprised that the recipe wasn't bound when I got it all together. I wonder how much I could have sold it for?

Nestor

SpAEkus wrote: »

Does that indicate there may be an actual bug with others never having received one since the patch? I haven't heard of a hot or stealth patch that would suddenly boost the RNG that high compared to many of the other posters here?

That was with 3 Provisioners doing Max Level Writs and 3 Provisioners doing L2/L3 Writs