Fragment Ratio from provisioning discovery thread

UrQuan

Woolenthreads wrote: »

UrQuan wrote: »

Got my 4th fragment this morning, but I've lost track of the number of writs I've done, so I'm afraid that info won't be particularly useful for figuring out the ratio...

If you are doing them every day since introduction then it should be 9 per Provisioner I think, unless I've lost a day/week.

Hmm, except on the first day I didn't do all of the writs I could have... So I guess I'm at:
51 tier VI writs
17 tier IV writs
4 fragments

Faugaun

5x level VI
5x level IV
4x other

1 frag from craglorn turn in. That's 2 days in a row getting frags

Surfinginhawaii

0 for 42.

Faugaun

HungryHobo wrote: »

I've done 6 Crag Writs, 1 frag.

My interest now is how fast are the prices falling? if it was 500k+ in the first couple days, now its just less than 200k, where do you think it will normalize?

it's a one time use item and players only need it once...prices will continue to fall until everyone can make the recipe at whi ch point it will be vendor trash

That is the simplistic model, the reality is that hopefully you have people still joining the game so while value drops continually and approaches vendor prices it never actually reaches it...in an inverse log type plot. Even more interesting we can kind of predict this fall...


Basically you need to determine the odds of a player getting a fragment (better yet the average length of time to get a fragment).

Let's say I am average (I think I am not) I farmed 3 from writs, it took 7 days that is 1 every 2.333333 days so it should take me 16.333333 days for me to get 7 fragments and presumably it doesn't matter if they are the correct ones since you can always swap them with someone else.

This can be considered the half life. So assuming people only farm their own and do not sell them then every 16.33333 days half of whatever is remaining will finish...

This still doesn't reflect reality...some players will continue to farm after they don't need (first for profit, then when it's not profitable they will do so to store in the guild bank for freebies....

What toy need is the fragment drop ratio (can maybe ballpark from this thread), new player growth as a percent of the total population (steam download history might give an idea what this looks like), how many writs per day (of what level writs ) the average player does daily, finally how many characters continue to farm even after they don't need.

A lot of this we can ballpark but even if we couldn't we could track sales prices in M.M. and after a month reverse derive an approximate price model based strictly on the data.

Note: half life is completely different then half price, so if initial sales were 1 million then half life doesn't mean in 16 days they will be 500k, completely different Do not confuse the two.

LunarMynx

It take less time, to gather the gold and just buy the Psijic Potions.
AD Zone Chat : 5k ea
EP Zone Chat : 10k ea

Guild Vendors 5k ~ 15k ea.

Time to make 5k gold : 30 mins max.

Time to complete a Level 50 Writ : 15 mins. Yielding an average (based on posts, guildie etc.) fragment 1 in 60 writs with a maxed Provisioner at VR levels.

Let the Hard Core gamers do what they do, and us casuals do what we do...they get rich sure but what do you do with gold in this game anyway?

Faugaun

LunarMynx wrote: »

It take less time, to gather the gold and just buy the Psijic Potions.
AD Zone Chat : 5k ea
EP Zone Chat : 10k ea

Guild Vendors 5k ~ 15k ea.

Time to make 5k gold : 30 mins max.

Time to complete a Level 50 Writ : 15 mins. Yielding an average (based on posts, guildie etc.) fragment 1 in 60 writs with a maxed Provisioner at VR levels.

Let the Hard Core gamers do what they do, and us casuals do what we do...they get rich sure but what do you do with gold in this game anyway?

I do a writ in about 3 minutes, but you make an interesting point. I do not think prices for exp pots will remain at 5k, here is why I think they will increase.

Prices on pots are based on supply and demand:

Supply is regulated by avaliablity of perfect roe

Perfect Roe (from the other ratio thread) seems to drop at about a 1% rate per fish skinned. Four potions can be made from 1 perfect roe. Prior to release of frags people had tons of fish stockpiled these were turned into stockpiles of roe. Which are turned into potions.

This is very different than fragments (which are one time collected by players then no longer needed) instead these are consumables with a perpetual need.

They have an upper limit value created by average player input time compared to how the average player values the crown store equivolent. Also unless you have 3600 champion points then you will need these.

This means that at current there is a maximum value of psijic pots in game, there is also an unnatural excess in supply (because of stashes and it being new) as the potion market continues it will continue to drop to an unspecified point and then rebound to a higher point where it will remain mostly stable.

This leveled price will be determined by the time to farm gold (plus profit) the time to farm Perfect Roe, and how that time relates to the real life currency earning equivolent of crowns.

My guess? Approx 8-10k

UrQuan

LunarMynx wrote: »

It take less time, to gather the gold and just buy the Psijic Potions.

But I don't care about the potions. I only care about learning the recipe. Heck, I don't even plan on selling the potions or anything, I just want to know the recipe because I want to know the recipe!

LunarMynx wrote: »

Time to complete a Level 50 Writ : 15 mins.

Whoa. How is it taking you 15 minutes to complete the writ? I do the provisioning writs on all 8 of my characters combined in a total of less than 15 minutes, and that's including the time to log on and log off of each character, put the mats from the writ in the bank, and list the recipes I get for sale in my guild store.

Faugaun

LunarMynx wrote: »

It take less time, to gather the gold and just buy the Psijic Potions.
AD Zone Chat : 5k ea
EP Zone Chat : 10k ea

Guild Vendors 5k ~ 15k ea.

Time to make 5k gold : 30 mins max.

Time to complete a Level 50 Writ : 15 mins. Yielding an average (based on posts, guildie etc.) fragment 1 in 60 writs with a maxed Provisioner at VR levels.

Let the Hard Core gamers do what they do, and us casuals do what we do...they get rich sure but what do you do with gold in this game anyway?

Lunar!!!!!!!! I Lunar!!!!!

You found me thread....teehee....I'll explain how you can do much faster in g chat next time I see ya.

SnipingYetii

Think Ive done 7 writs (one toon, can't log in every day) or so since the patch went live and found 2 fragments thus far.

helediron

12 more writs, one fragment.
Total 60 writs, four fragments.

helediron

I got my recipe by co-operation in my guild. I believe others do the same and at guild level whole recipes appear now fast. Independent top crafters will collect seven pieces by next week. I already see WTS starting to change to WTT. I think within two weeks recipes become common and fragment prices settle to much lower level.

I believe crafters and regular players have abundant supply of Frost Miriam and Bervez Juice. Limiting factor will be Perfect Roe. Fishing is awfully boring and time consuming. I decided not to sell Psijic Ambrosia for gold, but craft it from materials supplied by players. For individual players it isn't too hard to occasionally fish an hour or two for handful of Roe. But as a crafter that would mean days of fishing. Yuck, no. I think the trade of three bottles from one roe will be common.

Casdha

0 for 30

UrQuan

helediron wrote: »

I got my recipe by co-operation in my guild. I believe others do the same and at guild level whole recipes appear now fast. Independent top crafters will collect seven pieces by next week. I already see WTS starting to change to WTT. I think within two weeks recipes become common and fragment prices settle to much lower level.

I believe crafters and regular players have abundant supply of Frost Miriam and Bervez Juice. Limiting factor will be Perfect Roe. Fishing is awfully boring and time consuming. I decided not to sell Psijic Ambrosia for gold, but craft it from materials supplied by players. For individual players it isn't too hard to occasionally fish an hour or two for handful of Roe. But as a crafter that would mean days of fishing. Yuck, no. I think the trade of three bottles from one roe will be common.

I agree with you on pretty much everything except for the part about fishing being boring. Although I concede that if you're fishing by yourself rather than with friends on Teamspeak it could certainly be boring.

neueregel

36 VI writs - 0 fragments
60 IV writs - 0 fragments

total, 96 writs - 0 fragments...

SpAEkus

You need to fish solo in the middle of an active quest location that you have already completed.

All the carnage raging around you as you whistle your way towards more roe!

Faugaun

5x level Vi = 2 frags
5x level iv = 0 frags
4x other levels = 0 frags

that's my catch today

Jofish

I'm seriously getting tired of this...

I can't even bring myself to do the writs or gather hirelings anymore...

Nestor

Well, I still have just the one fragment after a week of writs across 6 characters, 4 of them max level (one of them does them sporadically so call it 5 characters)

deadlock007

0 fragments out of 44 max writs, but thanks to my guild I have completed the recipe.

I still plan on trying to find fragments to sell though

Rosveen

I found my first fragment today (out of 3 max level writs every day).

Surfinginhawaii

0 for 48.

Woolenthreads

LunarMynx wrote: »

Time to complete a Level 50 Writ : 15 mins.

Whoa. How is it taking you 15 minutes to complete the writ? I do the provisioning writs on all 8 of my characters combined in a total of less than 15 minutes, and that's including the time to log on and log off of each character, put the mats from the writ in the bank, and list the recipes I get for sale in my guild store.[/quote]

It depends on where and how many writs. It takes me a minimum of 45 minutes for the 8 Provisioning Writs, 2 Enchanting Writs and 3 Alchemy Writs however this includes banking since I sell 50% of the recipes (having learnt them on all characters). The characters doing just the Provisioning Writs have 3 long runs and 2 medium ones.

Still none .

Faugaun

Oops forgot to post yesterday's numbers

6 level 6
4 level 4
4 other levels

No frag

eliisra

Got my first fragment

Started to think I was seriously cursed.

50 writs and 1 fragment.

neueregel

104 and counting... 0 recipes fragments

Rosveen

Got another fragment today.

ShirleyShine

SpAEkus wrote: »

You need to fish solo in the middle of an active quest location that you have already completed.

All the carnage raging around you as you whistle your way towards more roe!

Oh yes, been doing that all a long. Getting roe is fun, I like gifting it along with some gunny sacks to friends.
Still turn a writ in daily with my main, got one fragment early on --no idea when I'll get the rest.
I just want to know the recipe, so looking forward to finally get them all.

I only have the one Master chef, she provides the food and potions for my alts.

still say the best part about fishing is getting to drink your coffee hot.

I_killed_Vivec

Still no fragments.

It is frustrating that there is nothing I can do to increase my chances of getting them. I'm a master crafter, a master provisioner, I know zillions of recipes, I cook the finest food, I have tons of ingredients... and yet I am totally dependent on RNG and there is nothing I can do to increase the odds of getting a fragment.

At least with roe I can increase my chances of getting some simply by fishing more - and the drop rate seems to be settling down to a fairly consisted level of 1 in 100 fish. For fragments all I can do is the daily writs and hope RNG will work for me. And so far it hasn't.

Faugaun

I_killed_Vivec wrote: »

Still no fragments.

It is frustrating that there is nothing I can do to increase my chances of getting them. I'm a master crafter, a master provisioner, I know zillions of recipes, I cook the finest food, I have tons of ingredients... and yet I am totally dependent on RNG and there is nothing I can do to increase the odds of getting a fragment.

At least with roe I can increase my chances of getting some simply by fishing more - and the drop rate seems to be settling down to a fairly consisted level of 1 in 100 fish. For fragments all I can do is the daily writs and hope RNG will work for me. And so far it hasn't.

You can increase your odds....

Higher level writs = better odds
More characters doing writs = more chances per day to hit
more accounts = more characters = better daily odds

I'm doing 14ish writs a day (on 6 accounts) and got two frag two days ago, one the day before that, and 1 3 days before that.

It's working out to be about 1 frag every two days ...you could buy a second account install cookery wizard addon, then easily level (in about 15 min per character) your provisioning to level 50 and then turn in 8 more writs per day....total cost $60 3 hours of levelling provisioning and about 160k gold (To buy recipes and mats). At the end you will be turning in 8 level IV writs per day (About 15 minutes of daily effort).

Rosveen

Faugaun wrote: »

more accounts = more characters = better daily odds

I knew it! P2W raises its ugly head again.

(no, I'm not serious, in case you couldn't tell)