The OP has made a very thoughtful post and unfortunately the fact that the title has "quitting ESO epidemic" has caused a lot of folks to go down the rabbit hole of what an epidemic of quitting would be.
Not to make assumptions but I think people are loosely defining that term in their heads as either "the most people who have ever quit in a period of time in reaction to a change" or maybe "the amount of people quitting would be visibly be obvious to ALL such that the game feels dead everywhere." And then using argument to those internal definitions to counter that a lot of people aren't quitting.
That's all kind of missing the point. Due to ESO's vast array of platforms, servers, and variety of content, it is actually unlikely that ESO would ever suddenly just die due to a mass exodus. I have done other posts on this, so I'll end that particular thought there.
The real point is that some of us are seeing friends, acquaintances, and content creators quit the game over changes made to it when they would likely would still be happy players if the changes hadn't been implemented. Moreover, these folks seem to be longtime players, in some cases having been around since Beta. It is commonly accepted that it is more expensive to recruit new customers (or employees) than it is to keep existing customers, so this is a red flag for the changes being released.
It doesn't really matter, imo, if it's 10 or 25 or 100 or 1000 players per patch. It doesn't matter if all of you notice or some or even a handful. Patches and changes should make people want to return to the game! They should be met with mostly excitement or neutrality, and of course there's always some skepticism. But people ARE leaving. I am certain that the people coming on the forums and saying their friends have quit (like me) are not lying.
Is it an epidemic? I don't know and I don't think it matters. It's still not a GOOD sign and ZOS should pay attention to well-thought out posts like the OP's to try and keep customers instead of losing more. In my opinion, while obviously people come and go all the time, any more than a couple of people quitting in outrage or sadness due to a patch is too many.
SilverBride wrote: »I've seen just as many players in game as always
Every zone in the game (except Cyrodiil and Imperial City) has different population shards, or instances. We don't know the exact number of players each shard is limited to, and it probably varies from zone to zone. But once an instance is filled with players, a new one is spun up, and is populated until full, and the process repeated.
The effect of this is that there may be (hypothetically) 400 people in Vvardenfell, spread across four instances, at 100 players per instance. Now, if there are 200 players in Vvardenfell, they would be in two instances. 100 players, 1 instance. How does this apply to your statement? Well, if there were 400 players in Vvardenfell every day last month at any given day, but that figure drops to only 100 players per day, then the number of players you actually see does not change.
So visual cues are not a good indicator of player population levels. Unless you get to the point where there are only 50 or 25 players per day in Vvardenfell, and then you might notice the emptiness on a consistent basis.
Here's some anecdotal info:
Historically, in the two big/busy trade guilds I help run:
A Chapter Launch week would see around 180 concurrent members logged in during primetime. (Well over 200 in older days)
A DLC Launch week would see 150+ peak.
So far this week, since the DLC launch, our busiest of the 2 guilds peaked at 92.
We checked with 15 other trade guilds in busy locations and only one of them passed 100 during primetime. (102)
One of our 2 trading guilds had *0* applications in 3 days. That has never happened before.
I'm not saying it's anything scientific, but these guilds have been around since 2014 and I'm fairly concerned over what I'm seeing this week. Curious to see what weekend numbers look like.
If the game sees a significant exodus, I hope ZOS learned the necessary lessons to alter course for the future. This is a terrific game with a stellar community and I don't see a lot of competition out there to peel away players if this game is in a good state.
UnabashedlyHonest wrote: »SilverBride wrote: »SizanLopkniht wrote: »SilverBride wrote: »SizanLopkniht wrote: »SilverBride wrote: »There is no quitting ESO epidemic.
There absolutely IS an epidemic of people leaving ESO. Ask any trading guild GM. Ask any trial raid leader. Ask any PvP regular and they will tell you there absolutely IS a mass exodus of players leaving ESO.
I've been a member is a successful trading guild for quite awhile now and we had one member say they were unhappy with the changes. Except for an occasional member leaving, which happens in all guilds, the only ones we lost since the update were those who were purged for not meeting the weekly sales requirements, and they were quickly replaced.
I've been all over Tamriel and I see just as many other players as I always have going about business as usual.
What trading guild are you referring to and where is the trader located?
You've repeatedly posted that you don't do solo or group trials, don't do battlegrounds, that you don't PvP and that you don't participate in vet HM dungeons or the PTS. That means there is a whole heck of a lot of the game you have not taken part in.
The major trade guilds that pay tens of millions of gold/week to keep their prime traders are, in fact, losing so many members lately that they are seriously struggling to pay the rent now days. Sure, if your trader is in some obscure location and populated with a small number of casual players they're doing fine. But the major trade guilds certainly ARE NOT doing fine now days. They are struggling.
Not taking part in something doesn't mean I don't know anything about it. ......
Actually, not taking part in any given content literally does mean you know less about that content and what it takes to complete it than the people who do participate in and complete that content.
Someone who's never gone scuba diving knows much less about scuba diving than someone who's been diving for years. That's how experience works. Someone with first hand experience knows way more about any given activity than someone with no first hand experience doing that activity.
Kingsindarkness wrote: »There is a group of about twenty five to thirty people on the forums who are really upset (even sad/depressed) about Update 35, and they are working really hard to convince the developers to effect change, they must really love the game (or at least their favorite activity which is High End Raiding) because they have become a cohesive group that suggest deliberation and coordination off site. They are determined despite suggestions of leaving the game to right the ship so to speak by any reasonable means.
There is a even smaller group of PVP players, the last patch effects them though not nearly as much...still they have much sympathy for the previous group but still feels as though they are invisible in game and on the forums, still they hold out hope that if the last patch is fixed they can go back trying to get attention about their issues
The rest is all over the place, this is a much larger group of people that range from people who just don't really like ESO and feel that if it Closes Bethesda will release TES VI faster, to folks who dislike Trade guilds to everything in between.
Toxic_Hemlock wrote: »Ragnarok0130 wrote: »Ragnarok0130 wrote: »Frankly with how U35 nerfed the very people ZoS claimed over and over that they were helping access harder content I not convinced the devs actually know why their decisions nerfed players in general in U35.
They admitted that they didn't know the complete changes U35 would have until after they went live with it.
How does that look?
Oh my, that's as bad as when I heard a congressman say "we have to pass the bill to find out what's in it." That's actually a case study in how not to properly balance a complex game and case in point on why I was saying changes of this scope needed a 3-6 month PTS cycle at a minimum to identify all of the secondary and tertiary follow on effects of these changes. This game hasn't been in beta for 8 years and it's not an early access title, this shouldn't be the method employed by professional developers.
Well I guess you can't warrant having a balance team on the payroll if they don't spend their days "balancing" the hell out of the game!
^THIS! It's called 'job justification'... and if you don't give them something to do, they might start looking elsewhere for a job, and right now there is a huge demand for devs out there. I've said this same thing before, wondering if they constantly have to make changes just to give their devs something to do... instead of accepting that the game is in a great state and doesn't need any massive changes, just minor tweaks here and there. BUT, apparently you cannot continue paying devs to just sit around doing nothing.
Kingsindarkness wrote: »Looking at this entire thread...it's sorta all over the place. There really is no one thing people are upset about, I don't think it will really get much attention because it will be viewed as basic background noise.
My real life job is in research, I literally find out what certain groups like and dislike for a living.
Please don't shoot the messenger I am a neutral party and have sympathy for all sides here,, but...
After spending a few hours looking back through the forums and watching Youtube and Twitch this is what I have learned....
There is a group of about twenty five to thirty people on the forums who are really upset (even sad/depressed) about Update 35, and they are working really hard to convince the developers to effect change, they must really love the game (or at least their favorite activity which is High End Raiding) because they have become a cohesive group that suggest deliberation and coordination off site. They are determined despite suggestions of leaving the game to right the ship so to speak by any reasonable means.
There is a even smaller group of PVP players, the last patch effects them though not nearly as much...still they have much sympathy for the previous group but still feels as though they are invisible in game and on the forums, still they hold out hope that if the last patch is fixed they can go back trying to get attention about their issues
The rest is all over the place, this is a much larger group of people that range from people who just don't really like ESO and feel that if it Closes Bethesda will release TES VI faster, to folks who dislike Trade guilds to everything in between.
The problem is that when all of this is put together on the forums it looks like noise...and technical types turn off when they are faced with a wall of noise. The question is how should the most cohesive group out of all of this communicate their issues without just being part of the noise wall?
One way would be if all Stream team members start talking about the same thing...of course that isn't going to happen because only a few of them are into just hard core raiding, and it seems that those who are have the least viewership....
Honestly I really don't have a answer to this...as I said I find out what type of people like and dislike a certain thing....I collate data and pass it along...I'm sorta a one trick pony that way...but I hope my research will help people understand what side of the pool they are in at least.
There will be folks that disagree with my findings and might even get angry because they believe their tribe is much larger or what not...the only thing I can say is I used the eight steps of research and followed the scientific method as closely as possible for just a few hours...I could stretch out research time...but I don't think the wall of noise conclusion will change.
Anyway I hope this helps even if in a small way.
markulrich1966 wrote: »steamcharts befote U35:
-16.48%
now:
-13.77%
So the amount of players is increasing since the update.
I guess many had the usual burnout, this was increased by the MYM event that many people do not see as "Event", as they don't PVP. So they took a break.
Now they have a reason again to spend more time in the game, checking their builds and adapting them.
Seminolegirl1992 wrote: »I'm not saying it's anything scientific, but these guilds have been around since 2014 and I'm fairly concerned over what I'm seeing this week. Curious to see what weekend numbers look like.
If the game sees a significant exodus, I hope ZOS learned the necessary lessons to alter course for the future. This is a terrific game with a stellar community and I don't see a lot of competition out there to peel away players if this game is in a good state.
I'm in one of hiyde's guilds. Can concur. I am one of those people that has missed about a week of logging in (haven't done that in years). I'm lucky they didn't kick me lol. This hurts trading guilds like ours who work tirelessly to help provide an economy for people to sell their stuff.
mpicklesster wrote: »VaranisArano wrote: »Y'all do realize that between the two statements "Among the players I know, there's a quitting epidemic" and "Among the players I know, there's not a quitting epidemic" can both be true statements, right? You're starting to circle quite a bit.
Good point. While Seam Charts does show a ~14% decline in players for the past 30 days vs. July but is not showing a notable change since the update launched. More importantly, comparing the past 30 days to August 2019, the last year not bloated by COVID's impact, there is little change.
While we may see players in our circle leaving the game due to this update, it is questionable that we are experiencing a mass exodus. Ofc, this is based on the only broad data source available. While limited, it is a better indicator of the game's health than the small circle of people any of us run with.
Also according to Steam Charts, ESO logins have gone down by about 20% since 8/22 (i.e., the release of U35).
On 8/22, logins peaked at about 24,309:
Today, 8/26, logins peaked at about 18,991:
(the difference between the 2 peaks is technically 21.8%, but I just said 20% for the sake of brevity).
P.S. The up-and-down, sinusoidal nature of login activity is probably just due to daytime versus nighttime differences in login activity. For sinusoidal data like that, you just have to make sure you analyze only the peaks or only the valleys if you want to measure rate of change without having to bring trigonometry into the mix. Hence why I just compared the two peaks from 8/22 and today.
I also looked up last year's data from Steam Charts, and it was just a line:
So things were either entirely different back then or they don't store day-to-day data that far back (or a bit of both).
Anyway--I'd say a 20% drop in 4 days isn't...good? That's 1/5 of their player base (at least according to Steam).
You are looking at peak, not average, players for the day. The peak can more easily be skewed as it is a very short-term measurement.
Also, the more worthy comparison is comparing the same month across years as it eliminates seasonal fluctuations. That is how business people and analysts look at such information. Even then, I go back to 2019 to eliminate the peak that came with COVID since we expected a decline over time as things got back to a new normal. That puts ESO on an even keel which, while not bad, does not have the growth they were dealing with. Also, while less of a drop, ESO did see a drop in August 2019 numbers from the previous month of July, though not as big.
Exactly. I mean if I look at the steamchart right now at 7:00AM this Saturday, it has a higher log-in count than any other 7:00am Saturday in August. So game must be doing great right? Wrong. Trends are meant to be longer term measurements.
I thoroughly believe U35 is going to cause a loss of players, but it will not be noticeable for a few weeks at least.
Kingsindarkness wrote: »Looking at this entire thread...it's sorta all over the place. There really is no one thing people are upset about, I don't think it will really get much attention because it will be viewed as basic background noise.
My real life job is in research, I literally find out what certain groups like and dislike for a living.
Please don't shoot the messenger I am a neutral party and have sympathy for all sides here,, but...
After spending a few hours looking back through the forums and watching Youtube and Twitch this is what I have learned....
There is a group of about twenty five to thirty people on the forums who are really upset (even sad/depressed) about Update 35, and they are working really hard to convince the developers to effect change, they must really love the game (or at least their favorite activity which is High End Raiding) because they have become a cohesive group that suggest deliberation and coordination off site. They are determined despite suggestions of leaving the game to right the ship so to speak by any reasonable means.
There is a even smaller group of PVP players, the last patch effects them though not nearly as much...still they have much sympathy for the previous group but still feels as though they are invisible in game and on the forums, still they hold out hope that if the last patch is fixed they can go back trying to get attention about their issues
The rest is all over the place, this is a much larger group of people that range from people who just don't really like ESO and feel that if it Closes Bethesda will release TES VI faster, to folks who dislike Trade guilds to everything in between.
The problem is that when all of this is put together on the forums it looks like noise...and technical types turn off when they are faced with a wall of noise. The question is how should the most cohesive group out of all of this communicate their issues without just being part of the noise wall?
One way would be if all Stream team members start talking about the same thing...of course that isn't going to happen because only a few of them are into just hard core raiding, and it seems that those who are have the least viewership....
Honestly I really don't have a answer to this...as I said I find out what type of people like and dislike a certain thing....I collate data and pass it along...I'm sorta a one trick pony that way...but I hope my research will help people understand what side of the pool they are in at least.
There will be folks that disagree with my findings and might even get angry because they believe their tribe is much larger or what not...the only thing I can say is I used the eight steps of research and followed the scientific method as closely as possible for just a few hours...I could stretch out research time...but I don't think the wall of noise conclusion will change.
Anyway I hope this helps even if in a small way.
Really how can u see it how healthy the game is looking right now, I mean a lot of gamers left and still leaving and nobody knows exactly how many are still playing out there. I think that u will see a drop of people which raided before and thats the point of doing raids after the *** update....
Anfieldkris wrote: »A lot of long time players I have known for years are leaving the game, or going on ‘a break’ which may last anywhere from not long at all to forever. Others are logging in, collecting daily rewards, maybe reloading traders or doing writs and logging off. My guilds in general have a lower level of applicants than previously as well. We also no longer have obvious succession for the officers, which we have always had for the six years the guild has been running. Admittedly that’s just from my corner of the world and my experience.
SilverBride wrote: »Anfieldkris wrote: »A lot of long time players I have known for years are leaving the game, or going on ‘a break’ which may last anywhere from not long at all to forever. Others are logging in, collecting daily rewards, maybe reloading traders or doing writs and logging off. My guilds in general have a lower level of applicants than previously as well. We also no longer have obvious succession for the officers, which we have always had for the six years the guild has been running. Admittedly that’s just from my corner of the world and my experience.
These things happen even when there isn't a new update. Long time players often move on as the new wears off, or to try the next new shiny. Some stop logging on all together but others still log on for the daily or to do writs or endeavors. Players are continuously coming and going so a lot of this is just that.
I don't disagree that some have left because of the update but that isn't the reason everyone who left did.