Dear ZOS, lets finally talk about RNG and the drop system

GilGalad · May 2017

Hello,

I made a thread about the math of RNG back in November 2016 that can be found here (Link) and apart from a slight change made to the vMA weapon drops* nothing has changed since then.
*: removal of drop groups, like destro, dual wield, etc. moving to an equal distribution; doubling drops if dual wield
I want to bring that topic back to everyones attention, because with the changes made to sustain people might think even more about farming those elusive Moondancer weapons...

@ZOS_RichLambert I remember someone saying that you @ZOS know how painful farming items in a specific trait can be, but since then it was very quiet around RNG and the loot system in general. I fully understand that you want people to play the game and don't want them to be able to have the gear immediately, but I would like to know what timeframe you are targeting?

This is the current RNG drop system visualised:
I will just copy the graphs from my other thread, if you need explanations please go there (Link).
Undaunted shoulders (non DLC chest)

(*) shows the probability in the case of only 6 traits, e.g. if prosperous and training would be removed.

Monster masks and dungeon sets

vMA and DSA weapons (old distribution, new distribution should be around the dagger/axe line for every weapon assuming equal probability for each weapon (12) and trait (8), therefore 1/(12*8) chance for a specific weapon and trait)

So when we talk about a farming timeframe we have to look at the expectation values:

Undaunted shoulders: 12 sets, 8 traits, 3 weights (light, medium, heavy): 288 keys on average to have the desired shoulder in the desired trait and weight
vMA weapons: 12 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe)), 8 traits (?): 96 runs on average to have the desired weapon in the desired trait
Set weapons: 3 sets, 8 traits, 13 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe), shield): 312-624 runs
(assuming a x dropchance for weapons instead of jewelery this number increases by 1/x, so for 50% by a factor of 2)

So with the current system ZOS wants us to run vMA around 100 times on average, use 300 keys to have the shoulder pieces we want and to run a dungeon/trial 600 (!!) times (neglecting chest drops) to get the weapon we want.
But the problem is we are dealing with exponential functions, so there is never a 100% chance to get the item you want even after 1000 runs/keys. And all the threads with people posting their first 100 vMA drops showcase exactly that problem. There will be people that have the desired drop after 5 runs and there will be people (~5% of the players) that will need 300+ runs.
Only a token system or variable drop rates based on the drop history can introduce an upper limit.

I post this in general discussion, because 3 PTS phases have passed (including the actual one), since this topic was originally posted and many other RNG threads followed, but nothing has changed or explained by ZOS. It's not only the RNG system itself, but the lack of communication that makes it really frustrating.

While there is no time anymore to implement big changes for this update, like a trait rebalance, I want to make a few easy to implement proposals:
Short term solutions:

Let only useful weapons drop!
No one will ever use Staffs on stamina DPS sets, or stamina weapons (apart from swords) on magicka DPS sets. Sets like BSW and Moondancer should have a much higher chance to drop Staffs instead of bows or 2H weapons, while sets like Twice Fanged Snake should never drop staffs. If you don't want to completely remove them just heavily reduce the drop chance.
Make named drops useful. In many dungeons there are named set item drops, but many of them come in useless traits or weapons types. Why is there no named sharpened/precise BSW staff for example?
Remove training and prosperous from every drop set. It just doesnt make sense to farm a set that makes you better at grinding. If you want to grind xp/gold (even though prosperous seem to be worse than impen when grinding mobs) you are much more efficient if you just craft you training/prosperous gear and start with maximum efficiency.

Long term solutions:

Rebalance traits, so there are more choices for engame DPS than just sharpened (and maybe precise with the new front loaded CPs)
Introduce a token system for vMA weapons, undaunted shoulders and dungeon weapons
Introduce a trait change system for master crafters (e.g. trait change tokens at the master craft vendor)

@ZOS_RichLambert I'm not asking to change the whole game within a few days, but if you could provide a statement about your views and plans on the loot system, that would go a long way!

Thank you for reading.

tl;dr:
The loot system provides no upper limit to the required runs to get a desired item thanks to the underlying math, with high average numbers of runs, especially for set weapons. The number of useless traits and weapon drops makes it much more painful to farm. Removing useless traits and weapons would be a good short term solution, while a trait rebalancing, a token system or a trait change system would be good long term solutions.

Ohhgrizyyy · May 2017

First off, I completely agree with a token system for VMA/Undaunted chests...Secondly I'm very impressed by all the information you supplied but thirdly I'm so curious. How did you actually get all of this information?

Turelus · May 2017

+1 Awesome for graph pron.

Also not sure we're finally talking about it, we've been talking about it for a while now and they've acknowledged their listening/thinking.

D0ntevenL1ft · May 2017

VMA system is starting to get very annoying. I got 3 sharpened restos back to back to back. Got my flawless title and got decisive sword and board.

Random loot not having anything to do with performance is just ridiculous.

Now that I have a leaderboard score I'm just running speed runs taking every sigil since there's no inclination to do better.

Have rewards somehow reflect performance without hurting others who simply run for completion.

MCBIZZLE300 · May 2017

Wow, some serious maths has gone into this! I gues i got lucky with my vma sharp inferno drop after around 120 runs!

SublimeSparo · May 2017

18 months or so of vma, hundreds of runs and leaderboards and i have not got any of the following sharpened weapons-
Inferno, lightning, dagger, axe, greatsword or battleaxe.
Ie any of the desired drops from vma for either stam or magic.
My friend got pretty much every sharpened weapon in ~25 runs
It took 1 year and the double drop event before i even received my first sharpened offensive weapons- the bow and 2 mauls.
Part of the reason i switched from EU to NA was to see if i had better vma rng... but no joy, it appears bad rng is account bound

On a side note I know of a group of people who abused the vmol glitch to open literally thousands of chests and only found 1 sharpened moondancer inferno and lightning staff, and 0 swords between them-
Think about that for a second, the rng in this game is sooo bad that even exploiting essentially limitless fast drops did not yield a desired item... There just aren't words to describe that

DRXHarbinger · May 2017

Moar better loot system required.

And for the love of Alduin, Make it smarter. We NEVER had any need to BSW Ice staves, by the Logic of Marksman only having bows Sets like this should be inferno only. Same for Netches and Ysgramor, and VO never needed to have Staves by any logic.

Reduce the drop chance on Unique items, The biggest lol...Staff of the Grove...Oh how if this was Sharp or precise I'd love it but it takes up a huge chunk of the drop rates, it should have the same % drop rate as an item+Trait, not just item ( see VMA drop issue in the past with resto and Bow.

Do not need a token system for dungeon items, just smarter loot and NO jewelry, remove weapons from chests and make them armor and jewelry only. Have no issue farming chests for rings, and bosses for weapons only. NOT both at once. These Bloated loot tables do not prolong the game, they just make you give up and try something else.

Some of us ZOS would actually like to enjoy playing the game rather than spend 99% of our time farming items that take so *** long to get, by the time we do new *** comes out and the grind starts over.

GilGalad · May 2017

Ohhgrizyyy wrote: »

First off, I completely agree with a token system for VMA/Undaunted chests...Secondly I'm very impressed by all the information you supplied but thirdly I'm so curious. How did you actually get all of this information?

Most of the information used is based on the assumption, that every trait and every item drops with the same probabilty. In the case of undaunted shoulders they once showed the drop distribution and it was pretty even. So you basically only need to know where the item drops and what other items also drop there.
For vMA someone recorded around 1k drops from different people, but that was before they changed the drop system and removed drop categories. Now we can only assume that every weapon drops with about the same probability, even though they stated, that bows and restos drop chances got slightly reduced. We would need some data to estimate what the actual drop chances are atm, but I guess they are not far away from an equal distribution. As long as the system is purely RNG based it doesn't matter that much, since there is only a 100% drop chance after infinite runs.

D0ntevenL1ft wrote: »

VMA system is starting to get very annoying. I got 3 sharpened restos back to back to back. Got my flawless title and got decisive sword and board.

Random loot not having anything to do with performance is just ridiculous.

Now that I have a leaderboard score I'm just running speed runs taking every sigil since there's no inclination to do better.

Have rewards somehow reflect performance without hurting others who simply run for completion.

The odds for 3 sharp restos back to back is around

(1/96)^3 = 1/884736 = 0,000113%

I totally agree that the drops should also be based on the performance. If we had a token system, the number of tokens rewarded could be related to the final score for example.

mcb123 wrote: »

Wow, some serious maths has gone into this! I gues i got lucky with my vma sharp inferno drop after around 120 runs!

The math is actually not that serious, since you can basically treat it as an urn problem, more specific a binomial distribution. If you are more interested in it just check out the thread in my signature.

120 runs is pretty ok, even a bit unlucky when compared to the average. It needed 330 keys for my first and only divines Grothdarr shoulder (around 4% of the people need 330+ keys for any divines of their choice).

Pixel_Zealot · May 2017

I read somewhere they would be introducing a token system to Morrowind. To the undaunted chests anyway.

Could be wishfully delusional though. With a 0,90% chance of getting mine.

D0ntevenL1ft · May 2017

SublimeSparo wrote: »

18 months or so of vma, hundreds of runs and leaderboards and i have not got any of the following sharpened weapons-
Inferno, lightning, dagger, axe, greatsword or battleaxe.
Ie any of the desired drops from vma for either stam or magic.
My friend got pretty much every sharpened weapon in ~25 runs
It took 1 year and the double drop event before i even received my first sharpened offensive weapons- the bow and 2 mauls.
Part of the reason i switched from EU to NA was to see if i had better vma rng... but no joy, it appears bad rng is account bound

On a side note I know of a group of people who abused the vmol glitch to open literally thousands of chests and only found 1 sharpened moondancer inferno and lightning staff, and 0 swords between them-
Think about that for a second, the rng in this game is sooo bad that even exploiting essentially limitless fast drops did not yield a desired item... There just aren't words to describe that

Hate to say it but I've ran VMA about 15-18 times and got sharpened greatsword , lightning, and inferno; yet I haven't seen a single bow drop yet.

coplannb16_ESO · May 2017

/agree with OP

In the past I suggested the following:

- add a new item type (set enchantment-item)
- these items can be crafted at the set-crafting stations of the set the crafting station is attuned for, e.g. instead of crafting a specifiy Law of Julianus item, you (can optionally) craft a Law of Julianus-Enchantment Item for later use.
- similar to how you enchant an item with a glyph you can now enchant an item with separately with the set-enchantment, making the item from now on be part of said set.
- when deconstructing a set item you have a 10-20% chance to retrieve a set-enchanment-item.
- (remark: for balance purpose it might be necessary to make the sets require an armor type, e.g. Vicous Ophidian cannot be put onto heavy armor)

This obviously helps with the trait-farming on BoP set-items. This would also alleviate the issue with motifs. You can now craft your Vicous Ophidian in whatever style (and trait) you want.

It would not yet help with vMA, because the weapons are special enchants, not set items. ZOS could turn those enchants into a 1-part set item, or allow to retrieve the enchantment on deconstruction too.

All of this would greatly improve the crafting-aspect of the game and make motifs useful.

edit:
I finally managed to beat vMA. on my third run now (arena 8 und 9 left to go). I got a defending bow (

) and a decisive sword (

). I pretty sure I will not get my sharpened lightning staff next time. I do not really think that the rewards there are really good in comparison to time and effort. The normal chest items are subpar and the quest reward is only gold. Of course a token system would also work, but I love crafting more than collecting tokens and marks (hate that crap in every game, but the current ESO loot system is still worse)

Dasovaruilos · May 2017

I completely agree.

I have also no desire whatsoever to test anything other than the BiS because I know that, while there are very nice sets out there that could make interesting builds for different things, each set would require hours and hours and hours of mindless grinding without any guarantee that I would get the sets.

We need an upper limit in tries required to get a specific item. You can keep the RNG, just make it so that is not always endless. After you put some effort, you should see your reward getting closer. Token system, drop "memory" increasing the chances of items you didn't get... I don't know. Just make it so at some point I know I can get an item if I put enough effort.

Two equally skilled players should not be set apart just because one was lucky to get a set of weapons that increase his DPS/Healing while the other, with the same effort, was not.

NewBlacksmurf · May 2017

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

Gothlander · May 2017

Deltia quit because of this. Deltia was a cool dude. He will be missed.

DjMuscleboy02 · May 2017

D0ntevenL1ft wrote: »

SublimeSparo wrote: »

18 months or so of vma, hundreds of runs and leaderboards and i have not got any of the following sharpened weapons-
Inferno, lightning, dagger, axe, greatsword or battleaxe.
Ie any of the desired drops from vma for either stam or magic.
My friend got pretty much every sharpened weapon in ~25 runs
It took 1 year and the double drop event before i even received my first sharpened offensive weapons- the bow and 2 mauls.
Part of the reason i switched from EU to NA was to see if i had better vma rng... but no joy, it appears bad rng is account bound

On a side note I know of a group of people who abused the vmol glitch to open literally thousands of chests and only found 1 sharpened moondancer inferno and lightning staff, and 0 swords between them-
Think about that for a second, the rng in this game is sooo bad that even exploiting essentially limitless fast drops did not yield a desired item... There just aren't words to describe that

Hate to say it but I've ran VMA about 15-18 times and got sharpened greatsword , lightning, and inferno; yet I haven't seen a single bow drop yet.

So you've gotten 6 sharpened weapons in 18 runs?...Jesus I'm sitting at nearly 500 and have also only seen 6 sharpened weapons total

Please do something about this RNG, combined with the broken content it really makes for a *** time.

GilGalad · May 2017

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

Lord_Eomer · May 2017

Another solution :

Buff other traits to stop everyone looking for Sharpen

VMA is nothing to enjoy, no good drops and just endless grind!

Violynne · May 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

And all the threads with people posting their first 100 vMA drops showcase exactly that problem.

This is precisely why ZoS has zero incentive to change anything about the game's drop rate. The fact people will continue to chase the carrot is everything needed to keep the revenue stream moving along.

Oh, this is assuredly about money, not what gamers want. The longer a player stays within a game, the increased likelihood the player will spend additional money to continue playing the game.

Of those threads of people doing their first 100 runs, it wouldn't be shocking to me in the least bit if over 60% paid for either a subscription or Crown store items during this duration.

This methodology isn't unique to ESO, either. It's a standard industry practice by "hooking" people to play longer, and continue to give them "reason" to play.

In ZoS' case, establishing high end content takes advantage of those who simply cannot do without.

The reality of the situation is the only way you'll get a company to change this abhorrent practice is to not participate in it.

But good luck with that. Luke Smith at Bungie once quipped "Players will throw money at the screen" when discussing their new microtransaction store front.

He was not wrong.

You will never get everyone to stop chasing the carrot, in this case, the "end game" gear.

I'm not faulting ZoS here nor am I claiming any sort of "greed" factor. It's just simple economics.

If everyone had easy access to end game gear, then they've arrived at the end game. What else] would they do?
That's the question everyone always neglects when having these discussions.

For developers, they already know the answer: "Where's the new DLC? I finished this game months ago!"

For development, this is a difficult balance. There will always be those few who can achieve end game status while the rest simply play the game.

To think ZoS should change its entire model for those few is rather foolish. It's just not going to happen.

Also, changing the loot table isn't going to rectify the situation. It'll actually make it far worse, as evident by the fewer complaints of "This thing again?".

jakeedmundson · May 2017

Today or tomorrow will be my last run of vma...(depending on when i feel like doing it)
I will get on the leader board with a couple of toons this week and will be quitting for good.

I'm well into 100+ runs and at least a quarter of my drops are resto staves. (even from leader board rewards and even AFTER they adjusted drops in homestead)
I'm EXTREMELY tired of spending 45-60 minutes working through this place with multiple characters to come out with ANOTHER resto staff or a decisive great sword.

I'm flawless on 2/4 classes and have been on leader boards with 3/4 classes. (i rarely play my nightblade)

But for some reason, i still can't EARN the items i'm after. I can't even trade for them or buy them.
Think about that.... 100 hours spent in here (or more)... to NOT make progress or earn my reward.

It needs to change in some way or they will continue to lose players over it.

Galwylin · May 2017

The website I was reading maybe off but it said dropped sets in Thieves Guild had a chance to drop only specific traits. Not all of them. I think it was four or five. Why don't they at least do that? It would at least lessen the chance for bad traits. Or they could make all of them useful. But until then, they know what people are after. Raise the chances to get them.

NewBlacksmurf · May 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

GilGalad · May 2017

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

1. Every chance can be calculated to a %.
2. Random is nothing you express in % its a characterization of a process. If you have a process with a fixed input (open loot box) and non-fixed output (different possible items) its a random process. How often you get an item after a large number of repetitions of the process is determined by a prefixed probability, the "chance to get the item". As long as you don't know what you are looting before you loot it, it is a random process and therefore related to RNG.

D0ntevenL1ft · May 2017

SublimeSparo wrote: »

18 months or so of vma, hundreds of runs and leaderboards and i have not got any of the following sharpened weapons-
Inferno, lightning, dagger, axe, greatsword or battleaxe.
Ie any of the desired drops from vma for either stam or magic.
My friend got pretty much every sharpened weapon in ~25 runs
It took 1 year and the double drop event before i even received my first sharpened offensive weapons- the bow and 2 mauls.
Part of the reason i switched from EU to NA was to see if i had better vma rng... but no joy, it appears bad rng is account bound

On a side note I know of a group of people who abused the vmol glitch to open literally thousands of chests and only found 1 sharpened moondancer inferno and lightning staff, and 0 swords between them-
Think about that for a second, the rng in this game is sooo bad that even exploiting essentially limitless fast drops did not yield a desired item... There just aren't words to describe that

Hate to say it but I've ran VMA about 15-18 times and got sharpened greatsword , lightning, and inferno; yet I haven't seen a single bow drop yet.

DjMuscleboy02 wrote: »

D0ntevenL1ft wrote: »

SublimeSparo wrote: »

18 months or so of vma, hundreds of runs and leaderboards and i have not got any of the following sharpened weapons-
Inferno, lightning, dagger, axe, greatsword or battleaxe.
Ie any of the desired drops from vma for either stam or magic.
My friend got pretty much every sharpened weapon in ~25 runs
It took 1 year and the double drop event before i even received my first sharpened offensive weapons- the bow and 2 mauls.
Part of the reason i switched from EU to NA was to see if i had better vma rng... but no joy, it appears bad rng is account bound

On a side note I know of a group of people who abused the vmol glitch to open literally thousands of chests and only found 1 sharpened moondancer inferno and lightning staff, and 0 swords between them-
Think about that for a second, the rng in this game is sooo bad that even exploiting essentially limitless fast drops did not yield a desired item... There just aren't words to describe that

Hate to say it but I've ran VMA about 15-18 times and got sharpened greatsword , lightning, and inferno; yet I haven't seen a single bow drop yet.

So you've gotten 6 sharpened weapons in 18 runs?...Jesus I'm sitting at nearly 500 and have also only seen 6 sharpened weapons total

Please do something about this RNG, combined with the broken content it really makes for a *** time.

Oh no I got 3 sharpened restos too, I'm like 8/15 sharpened and it's all staves. Others would be happy but I dislike mag so it's all useles to me

NewBlacksmurf · May 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

1. Every chance can be calculated to a %.
2. Random is nothing you express in % its a characterization of a process. If you have a process with a fixed input (open loot box) and non-fixed output (different possible items) its a random process. How often you get an item after a large number of repetitions of the process is determined by a prefixed probability, the "chance to get the item". As long as you don't know what you are looting before you loot it, it is a random process and therefore related to RNG.

No it can't, that was the point of that long wall of text. That makes it chance which is explained similar but different due to not being able to calculate it.

Each person can quantify their chances results but there isn't a standard % that applies to all
It's a chances game of chances with unlimited random results.

Edits:

If it were dice game and each roll had 12 results then it's random

This is a game with multiple dice where each dice represent gear. Those dice each have a different chance to be selected for a roll. The selection of each dice always occurs with a chance for each dice to be selected but it's not random because each dice isn't always available in the chance.

After that, another dice roles for a trait but depending upon the prior two, the last dice may have 5-8 or more sides. That's not random as the dice isn't always the same dice so overall this is just a loot table

That's all I'm trying to explain. Random when it's explained by smarter people than me refer to it as a table where all options are always available but the results can be random, however the chance of each roll is always the same cause each side has a chance

This system pre-sets what sides have a chance and even eliminate some chances depending

GilGalad · May 2017

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

1. Every chance can be calculated to a %.
2. Random is nothing you express in % its a characterization of a process. If you have a process with a fixed input (open loot box) and non-fixed output (different possible items) its a random process. How often you get an item after a large number of repetitions of the process is determined by a prefixed probability, the "chance to get the item". As long as you don't know what you are looting before you loot it, it is a random process and therefore related to RNG.

No it can't, that was the point of that long wall of text. That makes it chance which is explained similar but different due to not being able to calculate it.

Each person can quantify their chances results but there isn't a standard % that applies to all
It's a chances game of chances with unlimited random results.

The point of your long wall of text is that you have a different thinking about RNG, random processes and chances than me and probably everyone I met during my physics master's program. Since nothing of that contributes to the topic, let's just agree to disagree.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · May 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

1. Every chance can be calculated to a %.
2. Random is nothing you express in % its a characterization of a process. If you have a process with a fixed input (open loot box) and non-fixed output (different possible items) its a random process. How often you get an item after a large number of repetitions of the process is determined by a prefixed probability, the "chance to get the item". As long as you don't know what you are looting before you loot it, it is a random process and therefore related to RNG.

I kind of feel like you did a really good job of explaining why the system sucks, and then we have a conspiracy theorist come in, challenge your methods, and say the system sucks.

In any event, the system sucks.

skyhawk002 · May 2017

willymchilybily wrote: »

Now down to brass tax. vMSA weapons

B.I.S. : sharpened, precise,nirnhoned mostly in that order depending on content/CP allocation/weapon. (infused on some weapons can also be)
Ok/poor: defending, powered, infused
Bad: decisive, training(supposedly training is not in the loot tables?),
Rage inducingly bad: charged

who thought to put CHARGED, (+220% proc chance) ON A GUARANTEED PROC ENCHANT! my inferno-staff was a long time coming. i got one with the trait charged. I don't need the increased chance of a proc, because of the nature of the enchant, To complete the hardest solo content, work hard enough to get on the leader boards, run it enough times to get the weapon the player wants, and then to see that.... Its absolutely gutting.

What is the thought process here. "we wont be cruel enough to put training on vMA drops. but something that has even less benefit seems just dandy". Even running it on 1 maelstrom DW 1 hander would not excuse the inclusion of this trait. This trait is actually and quite literately of no benefit (AFAIK?) for all other weapons. please can we get it removed from the options?

I could see removal of decisive, charged, powered and defending from the loot pool in vMA as a step in the right direction toward like it was before Dark brotherhood patch. I imagine it still would not appease the many people who have run the content 100+ times (550 I've seen without one while Streak took apparently 1800 runs) though because there still is no guarantee of the BiS weapon. As a side note, I know of many people (20+) who have left the game solely because of the vMA RNG issues. Its illogical and random and makes it not fun. As the OP from my linked post put, its "gutting" and drives good PAYING people away from the game..

Meld777 wrote: »

vMA is something that ensures revenues for Black Desert Online by filtering a significant amount of competitive end game players out of the game due to RNG frustration and sending them to the pretty much only alternative out there (BDO). People that got Sharpened vMA Infernos after the trait pollution patch are so rare.

Implication of a token system would most likely mirror the system in place for crown crates like decon a weapon to receive a token. I would hope it would include options that would guarantee both the desired trait and the desired weapon, not one or the other. Example: 20 tokens for inferno staff with random trait or 20 tokens for sharpened weapon, random weapon.

PS: On a more cynical note, while I greatly appreciate these highly constructive posts, I see them as one-sided "conversations" with ZoS and I believe they owe us the common courtesy of a response or to engage in dialogue with us about this issue. But keep pushing on them guys! @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom @ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_Finn

Here are some linked posts on vMA RNG to stress how important this is to people in the game.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/311826/new-vma-weapon-distribution
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/267239/on-the-rng-system-of-the-vma-weapons
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/300570/rng-yeah-right
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/310175/the-grind-for-the-vma-sharpened-inferno-staff-is-taking-up-all-of-my-ingame-time
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/323542/what-is-the-purpose-of-vma

NewBlacksmurf · May 2017

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

GilGalad wrote: »

NewBlacksmurf wrote: »

Please stop referring to it as RNG cause nothing about it is random as you and hundreds of others have shown. It's a loot table

It is a loot table with drop chances for every item, say two items with 40% and 60% drop chance. When you now take your loot the game will calculate a random number between 0 and 1. if it is within 0.0-0.4 you get item one, if it is within 0.4-1.0 you get item 2. So the loot table only determines the range within a random number has to be in order for you to get the item, but the system itself is based on a random number generator.
Where have I shown that this system is not random???
Show me 2 people with exactly the same loot every time...

@GilGalad

No......that's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG
It's not a random number, it's a set and filtered result by location, NPC, etc so the results within that loot table aren't random.

It's very obvious from a few very detailed threads, the loot possibilities are pre set.
Basically it's if this and then that player 0% of this, has 20% to get this with x% of said traits, 60% to get this with x% of said trait but if one previous happens, it excludes any other result due to how the tiered and filters work in their tables.

The traits aren't even random as they also have pre set % chances so it's misleading to write RNG cause their tables are a few pre-set chances with specific excluded chances of other items.

If it were random then those who ...for example....ran vMSA over 1,000 times would more than likely have found their desired item but that's not the case. It was either in the forums or on ESO Live way back over a year ago when they talked about adjusting their loot tables and they literally talked about certain items and certain traits having pre-set drop chances set but where if x happened y couldn't. That's not random at all

The way it works is...
Rejuvenate staff may have an 80% drop rate and powered trait may have 5% chance but the rejuvenate staff and powered trait are only possible if the other staves don't drop.

Ok....
So then you realize each staff has its own different % but can only drop from one NPC or chest.

Ok...
So then there are those other weapons and each have their own % chances with differing trait % chances

Ok....
So then you realize ZOS has changed the % of each for all more than once since vMSA released.

Ok...
Then for set items.....limited to X dungeon or X location above ground and only drops from 1,2 or 3 NPCs but in a group each player has their own different chances but can share loot drops.

Ok....
So then player decide to run a vet dungeon for one specific helm with 3 others and they run it for a month 4-5 times each day and out of all those runs the helm with their trait never drops for any player.

So.....if a specific weapon is chosen which can be argued as RNG, the probability of that weapon being selected over other weapons now goes into another filter where the trait has a % among the other existing lootable traits. Some have all while others have been removed but where the % of each all differ.

More clear is a key drops and a player takes 100 keys and opens the same chest for monster shoulders but the shoulders can be argued as random but the traits for the random shoulder aren't random as they too are pre-set.

I know the item and the traits are pre-set on a % which isn't 1-100% among other gear of the same type

How is that random?
It's a loot table or what's described as games of chance not random, right.
That's why I'm saying stop calling it RNG

Chance can't be calculated to a % where random should be calculated to a %

At least thats how I discuss the two

1. Every chance can be calculated to a %.
2. Random is nothing you express in % its a characterization of a process. If you have a process with a fixed input (open loot box) and non-fixed output (different possible items) its a random process. How often you get an item after a large number of repetitions of the process is determined by a prefixed probability, the "chance to get the item". As long as you don't know what you are looting before you loot it, it is a random process and therefore related to RNG.

No it can't, that was the point of that long wall of text. That makes it chance which is explained similar but different due to not being able to calculate it.

Each person can quantify their chances results but there isn't a standard % that applies to all
It's a chances game of chances with unlimited random results.

The point of your long wall of text is that you have a different thinking about RNG, random processes and chances than me and probably everyone I met during my physics master's program. Since nothing of that contributes to the topic, let's just agree to disagree.

@GilGalad
No disrespect to your education, the instituation or your colleagues....but I'm suggesting the way you're describing it, isn't how it works.

I don't disagree or want to challenge your education or level of understanding this as your OP exhibits a great degree of understanding RNG.
I'm simply pointing out, it's not truly random by development intent.

If a dice has 12 sides, and you roll it 100 times, each side always has the same chance of landing up. That you can calculate and regardless of who is rolling or how they roll, the chance of each side always remains the same...again...that which can be calculated.

The results, may differ but that's not what we are talking about because while people don't like their results, the concern isn't the results, it's the system in place that predicates the "possible results".

ZOS by design has a 12 sided dice where each side has a pre-set chance of facing up. On top of that, they decided that this loot system wouldn't have the same dice roll with those pre-set chances per side. They have multiple dice, some with 12, some with 4, some with 16 and all have pre set chances per side.

On top of that, they have another dice again, with pre set side chances that determines which dice has a chance to be rolled.

That isn't random at all because the possibilities change every time and with or less possibilities which removes any opportunity to calculate accurate results which is why so many players have extremely different possibilities , opinions and time spent for loot

Wolfenbelle · May 2017

It isn't only gear drops that the RNG problem affects. It's achievements tied to daily quests. I have exactly one Dark Brotherhood black sacrament target left to assassinate and complete that achievement. I have been running that daily quest for over a year and I never get that one last target. I even submitted a bug report thinking maybe it was a bug, but the response I got was it's not bugged and just to keep playing daily. The targets are randomly chosen.

So just like gear drops, what's the point of chashing an achievement if you can never get it. For gear, if it can take a year or more to get the desired piece, the game's BIS could change and make it worthless by the time you get it...if you ever get it.

It's a truly awful system.

Feanor · May 2017

@GilGalad

Awesome post, love the effort and the graphs. The problem is that we can talk all we want - ZOS will still not change it. What I have been doing is stop caring about loot. After I did that this very elusive medium Ilambris divine shoulder dropped 1 week ago. Hope that will work for vMA too soon.

Artis · May 2017

No one needs any specific piece of gear. This game doesn't have vertical progression like WoW where you need to farm gear so you can go on to the next raid or you'll just never go past the first fight.

In that sense, the system is just great. In WOW you needed gear to play the game and have access to new content. Here - you have access to all content, so just play what you enjoy and slowly become stronger as the gear you want will drop sooner or later.

That being said, I only disagree with the system that guarantees you something, like "token" system, which I'm already sick of hearing.

I completely agree with pretty much all other solutions. Either or all of them should be introduced asap.

No reward should be completely useless for everyone unless it's just a reward that player already has. In this case it's not a reward. Make everything that drops somehow useful. Or make players roll for items from different pools of loot (just in case there are people who might want to experiment with any trait). But looting cp capped training items when you are cp capped is laughable. And that's just one example.