Math of RNG, Problems & Suggestions
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GilGalad
✭✭✭✭✭
Hello,
I know there are tons of threads about it already, but I would like to discuss the problems of RNG by taking a look at the underlying math. I will present some calculations and examples to display the problems and discuss some possible solutions.
TL;DR can be found in the end.
To be honest I'm one of the players who have no luck at all when it comes to drops (Looking for a SPC sash in divines and Scathing Mage gloves since IC launch, took uncounted runs to get the desired helmets, ...) and I find it extremely demotivating to know that there is no guaranteed drop after N runs (aka token system).
Ok so lets do the math. Basically RNG can be treated as an urn problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urn_problem) with replacement. The number of keys /MSA runs corresponds to draws. If we consider only two possible outcomes (get item, don't get item) the problem is described by a binomial distribution.
In order to calculate the probabilities for the outcomes we need to determine the number of possible items:
Number of different sholder pieces in undaunted chests:
- 12 sets, 8 traits, 3 weights (light, medium, heavy): 288
- 12 sets, 6 traits (removing training, prosperous), 3 weights: 216
[outdated]
Probability for MSA weapons:
According to @Meld777, @kasa-obake and @Alanar MSA weapons seem to drop in 6 categories: Bow, Resto, Destro, 2H, 1H&S, Dagger/Axe with equal probability and 8 traits each.
Bow, Resto, 1H&S, any 2H, any destro, any dual wield: 1/48
Dagger, Axe: 1/96
Specific Destro, 2H: 1/144
[outdated end]
I don't know the exact new probabilities for each weapons after the changes made in homestead (?), but they should be somewhere in the range of 1/96 if we assume equal probabilities for all weapons and traits (12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe))). It corresponds to the Dagger/Axe line in the plot below.
Dungeons:
- Monster mask: 8 traits, 3 weights: 24
- Set weapon: 3 sets, 8 traits, 13 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe), shield): 312
(assuming a x dropchance for weapons instead of jewelery this number increases by 1/x, so for 50% by a factor of 2)
Calculation:
The Probability to have the desired item after N draws (e.g. keys/runs) is given by:
1-(1-P)^N
so we first calculate the probability of not getting the item (1-P). The probability of not getting the item N times in a row is given by (1-P)^N. And to get the probability to get the item we take the opposite event: 1-(1-P)^N.
Undaunted shoulders:
MSA & DSA weapons:
Dungeon sets:
So what is the problem?
For MSA it is pretty clear that the addition of traits made the grind a lot worse and with runs taking about 40-60 mins it's not very efficient to farm.
For the undaunted shoulders the problem is clearly the number of shoulders and traits. Splitting the shoulders in 3 chests allready helped a lot and was a good move, but the number of unused traits is still negatively influencing the drop chances.
The attempt to make every trait usefull and the trait rebalancing failed otherwise there would be no discussion here. The difference between a divines shoulder wearing TBS (+0.9% crit & crit dmg, Thief & Shadow mundus) compared to infused (+100? magicka) is huge.
Solutions:
1. Remove unused traits:
Check the data, see what traits are really used and remove the unused ones. If you don't want to remove them, modify the drop chances. Instead of a uniform distribution of traits go for higher chances depending on the item aka smart loot (offensive weapons: sharpened, precise, nirn; Offensive shoulders: divines, impenetrable, (infused), defensive shoulders: divines, impenetrable, reinforced, sturdy, ...). Check your data or ask your players! We know what pieces we want and in what trait.
2. Remove bind on pickup restriction:
I don't want the BOP restriction removed from the MSA weapons, since MSA is an achievement and it should be rewarded exclusively.
For the shoulders everyone can farm keys on normal modes, so they are not as exclusive as MSA weapons.
Why would it help?
Assuming the shoulders drop with equal probability and every player on the server used 288 keys there will be approximately one shoulder of every trait and weight per player, but there are variations for every player according to the probabilities calculated above. Allowing the players to trade enables the 35% who don't have a specific shoulder in a specific trait at this point to buy or trade the desired one, because not having the one you want means you have more of the others (in my case 4 Illambris in divines but no Grothdarr).
What is the downside?
People will get their gear faster, or could get it even without doing dailies at all. If people have what they want they might stop doing the undaunted dailies, on the other hand there will be people trying to get good shoulders in order to sell them.
I think at the moment we are at a point where people stop doing the dailies or even playing because of the frustration about bad rng, so we have to find a middle way.
3. A token system:
Being able to trade an specific amount of undaunted keys for an item would help.
4. Improving the Cyrodiil vendor:
Including divines instead of infused on the shoulder pieces and presenting multiple different sets per weekend would also be a solution.
I personally would like to see a combination of both solutions, removing some traits or adjusting the drop rates (reinforced only on heavy shoulders, well-fitted only on medium, etc.) and making shoulders BOE. I think the game's economy could need some more high value armor pieces and after a time the prices will go down anyways making it easier for new players to buy some gear and having a better start into the end game.
I hope I could display the problems well and contribute to the discussion, leading to changes and a better playing experience for everyone.
Thanks for reading.
Gil-Galad
@ZOS_GinaBruno, @ZOS_KaiSchober, @ZOS_RichLambert: I would love to get some feedback if you read this thread and if you are discussing to change the RNG system.
TL;DR:
The chances of not getting a desired item after 200+ runs/keys is pretty high, due to a high amount of useless traits. Removing traits or reducing the drop chances for unused traits would help a bit but don't solve the problem completey. BOE instead of BOP would be a good solution for undaunted shoulder pieces.
Edit 30.11.2016, 22:50:
Added monster masks and dungeon set weapons.
Edit 01.12.2016, 12:05:
Added a section especially for MSA & DSA weapons. Added spoilers for better overview.
Edit 03.12.2016, 19:55:
Added data and charts from @kasa-obake to back up the assumption about the MSA weapon drop distribution.
Edited by GilGalad on May 17, 2017 9:01AM I know there are tons of threads about it already, but I would like to discuss the problems of RNG by taking a look at the underlying math. I will present some calculations and examples to display the problems and discuss some possible solutions.
TL;DR can be found in the end.
To be honest I'm one of the players who have no luck at all when it comes to drops (Looking for a SPC sash in divines and Scathing Mage gloves since IC launch, took uncounted runs to get the desired helmets, ...) and I find it extremely demotivating to know that there is no guaranteed drop after N runs (aka token system).
Ok so lets do the math. Basically RNG can be treated as an urn problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urn_problem) with replacement. The number of keys /MSA runs corresponds to draws. If we consider only two possible outcomes (get item, don't get item) the problem is described by a binomial distribution.
In order to calculate the probabilities for the outcomes we need to determine the number of possible items:
Number of different sholder pieces in undaunted chests:
- 12 sets, 8 traits, 3 weights (light, medium, heavy): 288
- 12 sets, 6 traits (removing training, prosperous), 3 weights: 216
[outdated]
Probability for MSA weapons:
According to @Meld777, @kasa-obake and @Alanar MSA weapons seem to drop in 6 categories: Bow, Resto, Destro, 2H, 1H&S, Dagger/Axe with equal probability and 8 traits each.
Bow, Resto, 1H&S, any 2H, any destro, any dual wield: 1/48
Dagger, Axe: 1/96
Specific Destro, 2H: 1/144
[outdated end]
I don't know the exact new probabilities for each weapons after the changes made in homestead (?), but they should be somewhere in the range of 1/96 if we assume equal probabilities for all weapons and traits (12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe))). It corresponds to the Dagger/Axe line in the plot below.
Spoiler
old assumptions:
- 12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe)), 8 traits (?): 96
- 12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe)), 3 traits (like it once used to be): 36
Data
Thanks to @kasa-obake we have some data of the MSA drops to back up the assumtions made above. Original thread can be found here (Link). Approximately 1.5k observations lead to the following results:
If we group the drops in the categories defined above we get:
2H 14,5%
Destro 14,8%
1H&S 15,2%
Dual 17,3%
Bow 17,5%
Resto 20,7%
Compared to the expected 1/6 = 16,7% we get a variance of 0,047% and a standard deviation of 2,17%, which is ok for the sample size we are looking at.
- 12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe)), 8 traits (?): 96
- 12 MSA weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe)), 3 traits (like it once used to be): 36
Data
Thanks to @kasa-obake we have some data of the MSA drops to back up the assumtions made above. Original thread can be found here (Link). Approximately 1.5k observations lead to the following results:
If we group the drops in the categories defined above we get:
2H 14,5%
Destro 14,8%
1H&S 15,2%
Dual 17,3%
Bow 17,5%
Resto 20,7%
Compared to the expected 1/6 = 16,7% we get a variance of 0,047% and a standard deviation of 2,17%, which is ok for the sample size we are looking at.
- Monster mask: 8 traits, 3 weights: 24
- Set weapon: 3 sets, 8 traits, 13 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe), shield): 312
(assuming a x dropchance for weapons instead of jewelery this number increases by 1/x, so for 50% by a factor of 2)
Calculation:
The Probability to have the desired item after N draws (e.g. keys/runs) is given by:
1-(1-P)^N
so we first calculate the probability of not getting the item (1-P). The probability of not getting the item N times in a row is given by (1-P)^N. And to get the probability to get the item we take the opposite event: 1-(1-P)^N.
Undaunted shoulders:
Spoiler
Examples:
1. Undaunted shoulder with a specific trait, any weight (light, medium, OR heavy). Probability: 3/288 = 1/96
2. Undaunted shoulder with a specific trait and a specific weight (some stamina best in slots). Probability: 1/288
(*): shoulder example with only 6 traits, considering training and prosperous would be removed.
Results undaunted shoulders:
Interpretation:
1. As stated above getting a shoulder with a specific trait but any weight is the same as getting a specific MSA weapon, so they share a line.
2. After 300 keys you have a 95% chance to get the shoulder in the desired trait but any weight (I belong to the 5% who don't have it, e.g. Grothdarr in divines).
3. If you are looking for a specific shoulder trait and weight there is only a 65% chance to have it after 300 runs. That means that 1/3 of the players wont have it after 300 runs. Even after 500 keys 18.4% won't have this item. A guildmate of mine is above 400 keys now without a medium Krahg's.
4. Removing training and prosperous from the loot table would help to improve the situation (green lines), but there would still be 10% of the players without the desired shoulder after 500 keys.
6. Since we are talking about exponential functions converging to 1 there is only a 100% chance after infinite runs.
1. Undaunted shoulder with a specific trait, any weight (light, medium, OR heavy). Probability: 3/288 = 1/96
2. Undaunted shoulder with a specific trait and a specific weight (some stamina best in slots). Probability: 1/288
(*): shoulder example with only 6 traits, considering training and prosperous would be removed.
Results undaunted shoulders:
Interpretation:
1. As stated above getting a shoulder with a specific trait but any weight is the same as getting a specific MSA weapon, so they share a line.
2. After 300 keys you have a 95% chance to get the shoulder in the desired trait but any weight (I belong to the 5% who don't have it, e.g. Grothdarr in divines).
3. If you are looking for a specific shoulder trait and weight there is only a 65% chance to have it after 300 runs. That means that 1/3 of the players wont have it after 300 runs. Even after 500 keys 18.4% won't have this item. A guildmate of mine is above 400 keys now without a medium Krahg's.
4. Removing training and prosperous from the loot table would help to improve the situation (green lines), but there would still be 10% of the players without the desired shoulder after 500 keys.
6. Since we are talking about exponential functions converging to 1 there is only a 100% chance after infinite runs.
MSA & DSA weapons:
Spoiler
I assumed the same drop behavior for DSA weapons as for MSA weapons, but considered group trading in the DSA case to show it's benefits.
Results MSA&DSA:
Interpretation:
If we would assume that we don't have categories for the drops, so that a specific destro staff (e.g. fire staff) drops with the same probability, then every weapon would drop according to the "Dagger, Axe" line. The split in categories helps people who search for a bow, resto staff, 2H or 1H&S, but hurts people searching for a specific destro staff.
In order to show how the addition of traits changed the drop chances I also added the specific destro example with 3 instead of 8 traits. The change is huge going down from a 85% chance to a 50% after 100 runs.
You can also see that limited trading within a group heavily increases the drop chances for specific items.
Results MSA&DSA:
Interpretation:
If we would assume that we don't have categories for the drops, so that a specific destro staff (e.g. fire staff) drops with the same probability, then every weapon would drop according to the "Dagger, Axe" line. The split in categories helps people who search for a bow, resto staff, 2H or 1H&S, but hurts people searching for a specific destro staff.
In order to show how the addition of traits changed the drop chances I also added the specific destro example with 3 instead of 8 traits. The change is huge going down from a 85% chance to a 50% after 100 runs.
You can also see that limited trading within a group heavily increases the drop chances for specific items.
Dungeon sets:
Spoiler
To demonstrate the effects of limited trading within a group I will present more examples with dungeon drops:
1. monster mask, specific trait, any weight, no group trading ("solo")
2. monster mask, specific trait, any weight, 4 man group
3. monster mask, specific trait, specific weight, no group trading ("solo")
4. monster mask, specific trait, specific weight, 4 man group
5. set weapon, 4 man group (assuming 50% dropchance for weapons)
6. set weapon, 12 man raid (assuming 50% dropchance for weapons)
Results monster masks and dungeon sets:
Interpretation:
One can clearly see the benefits of trading even if it's only within a small group. Mathematically one run with a group is the same as 4 runs solo/without trading, therefore adding a factor 4 in the exponent, so that the curve converges a lot faster.
Farming set weapons is a real pain, since there are so many options with 3 different sets and jewelery. Even with group trading the chance to have a weapon in the desired trait after 100 runs is below 50%. For raid groups the chances are better if they are trying to get a weapon for one player. Getting 2 weapons like dual wield swords extended the capability of Excel, but its much lower than the probability for one weapon.
1. monster mask, specific trait, any weight, no group trading ("solo")
2. monster mask, specific trait, any weight, 4 man group
3. monster mask, specific trait, specific weight, no group trading ("solo")
4. monster mask, specific trait, specific weight, 4 man group
5. set weapon, 4 man group (assuming 50% dropchance for weapons)
6. set weapon, 12 man raid (assuming 50% dropchance for weapons)
Results monster masks and dungeon sets:
Interpretation:
One can clearly see the benefits of trading even if it's only within a small group. Mathematically one run with a group is the same as 4 runs solo/without trading, therefore adding a factor 4 in the exponent, so that the curve converges a lot faster.
Farming set weapons is a real pain, since there are so many options with 3 different sets and jewelery. Even with group trading the chance to have a weapon in the desired trait after 100 runs is below 50%. For raid groups the chances are better if they are trying to get a weapon for one player. Getting 2 weapons like dual wield swords extended the capability of Excel, but its much lower than the probability for one weapon.
So what is the problem?
For MSA it is pretty clear that the addition of traits made the grind a lot worse and with runs taking about 40-60 mins it's not very efficient to farm.
For the undaunted shoulders the problem is clearly the number of shoulders and traits. Splitting the shoulders in 3 chests allready helped a lot and was a good move, but the number of unused traits is still negatively influencing the drop chances.
The attempt to make every trait usefull and the trait rebalancing failed otherwise there would be no discussion here. The difference between a divines shoulder wearing TBS (+0.9% crit & crit dmg, Thief & Shadow mundus) compared to infused (+100? magicka) is huge.
Solutions:
1. Remove unused traits:
Check the data, see what traits are really used and remove the unused ones. If you don't want to remove them, modify the drop chances. Instead of a uniform distribution of traits go for higher chances depending on the item aka smart loot (offensive weapons: sharpened, precise, nirn; Offensive shoulders: divines, impenetrable, (infused), defensive shoulders: divines, impenetrable, reinforced, sturdy, ...). Check your data or ask your players! We know what pieces we want and in what trait.
2. Remove bind on pickup restriction:
I don't want the BOP restriction removed from the MSA weapons, since MSA is an achievement and it should be rewarded exclusively.
For the shoulders everyone can farm keys on normal modes, so they are not as exclusive as MSA weapons.
Why would it help?
Assuming the shoulders drop with equal probability and every player on the server used 288 keys there will be approximately one shoulder of every trait and weight per player, but there are variations for every player according to the probabilities calculated above. Allowing the players to trade enables the 35% who don't have a specific shoulder in a specific trait at this point to buy or trade the desired one, because not having the one you want means you have more of the others (in my case 4 Illambris in divines but no Grothdarr).
What is the downside?
People will get their gear faster, or could get it even without doing dailies at all. If people have what they want they might stop doing the undaunted dailies, on the other hand there will be people trying to get good shoulders in order to sell them.
I think at the moment we are at a point where people stop doing the dailies or even playing because of the frustration about bad rng, so we have to find a middle way.
3. A token system:
Being able to trade an specific amount of undaunted keys for an item would help.
4. Improving the Cyrodiil vendor:
Including divines instead of infused on the shoulder pieces and presenting multiple different sets per weekend would also be a solution.
I personally would like to see a combination of both solutions, removing some traits or adjusting the drop rates (reinforced only on heavy shoulders, well-fitted only on medium, etc.) and making shoulders BOE. I think the game's economy could need some more high value armor pieces and after a time the prices will go down anyways making it easier for new players to buy some gear and having a better start into the end game.
I hope I could display the problems well and contribute to the discussion, leading to changes and a better playing experience for everyone.
Thanks for reading.
Gil-Galad
@ZOS_GinaBruno, @ZOS_KaiSchober, @ZOS_RichLambert: I would love to get some feedback if you read this thread and if you are discussing to change the RNG system.
TL;DR:
The chances of not getting a desired item after 200+ runs/keys is pretty high, due to a high amount of useless traits. Removing traits or reducing the drop chances for unused traits would help a bit but don't solve the problem completey. BOE instead of BOP would be a good solution for undaunted shoulder pieces.
Edit 30.11.2016, 22:50:
Added monster masks and dungeon set weapons.
Edit 01.12.2016, 12:05:
Added a section especially for MSA & DSA weapons. Added spoilers for better overview.
Edit 03.12.2016, 19:55:
Added data and charts from @kasa-obake to back up the assumption about the MSA weapon drop distribution.
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Cutholen✭✭✭I'm at 469 Keys for Kra'gh Arm Corps in divines... Thats 77 Days of doing every 3 all three dailys with one char in vet hardmode...
Pls consider to do some changes to this awful rng loot system."He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.” - Geoge Orwell, 1984
Tank / RP-DD
[Beyond InfinityvAA HM - vHR HM - vMol HM - vHof HM - vAS+2 - vCR+3 - vSS HM0 -
Thal✭✭✭Obligatory comment about the abysmal chances to get a sharpened Burning Spellweave sword... let alone the 2 that are required.
I'm not one to ask for easy mode access to anything. But when you're already over 300 runs and haven't even gotten a crap trait sword yet, a token system really seems nice.
Or perhaps as a reward for completing the more difficult COA title achievement (name escapes me now, Deadlands something). Or heck, even a 5% chance named drop from Valkyn Skoria... I'd gladly grind that
Net net, RNG is somewhat required to keep people doing content, but most of us do have jobs, significant others, pets that we don't want to neglect, a gym membership that we'd like to use, etc. I just want a way to know I'm actively progressing toward a goal, not just run it 10-15 times a night with my fingers crossed.1 -
Thal✭✭✭Tokens from bosses, chance in heavy sacks and chests, and an absurdly high requirement - think 1000 tokens for a sharpened set weapon. I'd be very on board with that
Or even spin this into a "make crafting more useful" conversation. Make the item you receive from tokens a "Burning Spellweave" motif (for lack of a better word), that allows you to craft one Spellweave item.Edited by Thal on November 30, 2016 7:20PM0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭Obligatory comment about the abysmal chances to get a sharpened Burning Spellweave sword... let alone the 2 that are required.
I'm not one to ask for easy mode access to anything. But when you're already over 300 runs and haven't even gotten a crap trait sword yet, a token system really seems nice.
Or perhaps as a reward for completing the more difficult COA title achievement (name escapes me now, Deadlands something). Or heck, even a 5% chance named drop from Valkyn Skoria... I'd gladly grind that
Net net, RNG is somewhat required to keep people doing content, but most of us do have jobs, significant others, pets that we don't want to neglect, a gym membership that we'd like to use, etc. I just want a way to know I'm actively progressing toward a goal, not just run it 10-15 times a night with my fingers crossed.
I will soon add a section for the monster helmets and it would make sense to include stuff like set weapons, since they both drop in the dungeons. I would need to know the drop chance for the weapons.
As far as I know you eighter get a weapon or a jewelry piece. If thats correct, are the chances 50% jewelry and 50% weapon or different?
Are shields also dropping?
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭So we have 3 different sets, with 13 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe), shield) and 8 traits each. Probably a 50% chance to get a weapon instead of jewelry. I will work that out and update the post in a few mins.0
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Thal✭✭✭So we have 3 different sets, with 13 weapons (4xStaff, Bow, Dagger, 2x(Sword, Mace, Axe), shield) and 8 traits each. Probably a 50% chance to get a weapon instead of jewelry. I will work that out and update the post in a few mins.
Thanks sir - I await an illustration of the futility
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭
Ok took a few more minutes, since Excel failed...
You have at least the calculation for one weapon. You might want to think about another set without dungeon set weapons!
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭
Ok took a few more minutes, since Excel failed...
You have at least the calculation for one weapon. You might want to think about another set without dungeon set weapons!
Updated the OP.Edited by GilGalad on November 30, 2016 9:56PM0 -
Thal✭✭✭I did, however, just pull a sharpened Sunderflame resto staff... just what I've always wanted0
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭I did, however, just pull a sharpened Sunderflame resto staff... just what I've always wanted
The easiest way to improve the set weapon RNG would be to remove stamina weapons (all but 1h swords) from magicka sets and magicka weapons from stamina sets...
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speeez✭✭✭@Cutholen If I'm doing my math correctly, after 469 attempts to get a shoulder set piece with a probability of 1/288 (taking this number from the OP), you would have ----
EDIT: i miss calculated- you have an 80% chance. in which case, holy *** the probability is bad. 469 attempts with only 80% that you could get your desired shoulder once? damn.Edited by speeez on December 1, 2016 1:08AMTwitch: www.twitch.tv/speeeztv
YouTube: www.youtube.com/speeeztv0 -
speeez✭✭✭@Gil.Galad i must say this thread is beautiful, the math and effort put behind it is great and constructive. i checked a little of it and i got same results.
VMA is HORRIBLE probability of getting desired weapon ESPECIALLY with each event occuring taking anywhere from 30min-1hr+. After doing 50 runs, having a 40% chance of getting the desired weapon you want?! thats crazy.
After double checking my calculations for undaunted shoulders, its even worse holy crap, granted, you can get 6 keys everyday per character, still kinda crappy haha
+1 man, beautiful thread, beautiful workTwitch: www.twitch.tv/speeeztv
YouTube: www.youtube.com/speeeztv0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭@Gil.Galad i must say this thread is beautiful, the math and effort put behind it is great and constructive. i checked a little of it and i got same results.
VMA is HORRIBLE probability of getting desired weapon ESPECIALLY with each event occuring taking anywhere from 30min-1hr+. After doing 50 runs, having a 40% chance of getting the desired weapon you want?! thats crazy.
After double checking my calculations for undaunted shoulders, its even worse holy crap, granted, you can get 6 keys everyday per character, still kinda crappy haha
+1 man, beautiful thread, beautiful work
Thank you for checking the results.
My reaction was pretty much the same when I saw the results the first time. I always knew it was bad, but that it is so bad still surprised me.
If anyone wants to see other examples feel free to ask and I will add them.
Edit: typoEdited by GilGalad on December 1, 2016 7:44AM0 -
Meld777✭✭✭✭✭3. Specific MSA weapon with a specific trait. Probability: 1/96
@Gil.Galad Nice chart, but wrong assumptions on vMA. It's been proven by now that weapons drop in 6 categories (Bow, Resto, Dagger/Axe, 2h melee, Destro, 1h/s), with each category having a 1/6 drop chance. Maybe you can adjust your chart to reflect the drop chance of a Sharpened Inferno: 1/6 (category) * 1/3 (3 weapons in category) * 1/8 (traits) = 1/144Edited by Meld777 on December 1, 2016 8:01AMMaelstrom Arena Champion | Undaunted | Fighters Guild Victor
Level 50 Magicka NB | CP160+
nAA | vCoH1 HM | nSO | nCoA2 | nDSA | nMA | vVoM
PC EU1 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭
@Gil.Galad Nice chart, but wrong assumptions on vMA. It's been proven by now that weapons drop in 6 categories (Bow, Resto, Dagger/Axe, 2h melee, Destro, 1h/s), with each category having a 1/6 drop chance. Maybe you can adjust your chart to reflect the drop chance of a Sharpened Inferno: 1/6 (category) * 1/3 (3 weapons in category) * 1/8 (traits) = 1/144
Hmm good to know. I will make a separate chart for VMA with the updated probabilities later today.0 -
GreasyDave✭✭✭✭Excellent post OP.
I personally believe the RNG to be rigged -and I believe it's quite simple to prove it. I know about personal observation bias. But I was thinking about this last night and wanted to post about it - and hey presto, here's your thread. So before I propose my modest proposal for the community to simply check the RNG together, I'd like to double check my maths.
The simple check for hidden RNG bias can be made with dolmen jewelry drops. Every dolmen drops a piece. It can be one of three colours, blue, green or purple. My understanding of the odds are that thirty three percent of the drops ought to be purple, if we spread the drops over a large enough set of data.
Am I correct in thinking this?
Because if I am, from my personal observation (and this is open to to pure personal observation bias), I definitely don't get thirty three percent purple. Far from it. I've done about fifty dolmens since one tamriel and though I didn't actually stop and record the results, I'm sure I've had less than 15 percent. Last night for instance, 13 dolmens, 1 purple.
Now I know my personal results can be excused as me being unlucky and somebody else somewhere is getting more than thirty three percent purple -but I truly don't believe that. I have yet to meet a guildie or mate or anyone in zone chat comment, wow, I got lucky, did a few dolmens today and got a bunch of purples.
However, unlike all the the other chests and weapon drops, the dolmen drop rate is very very easy to test as a community if we should so wish. All it requires is honesty and an hour of interested players' time.
If over the next couple of days, week or month interested players dedicated an hour to a dolmen run (they can do it independently, when they've got free time spare -nothing too organised) and posted their results either in this thread or a new one I can start (don't want to hijack your thread) -and I will start one if there is interest - we would quickly get a data set large enough to see a pattern, I would have thought. All we're testing is colour - not whether its a ring or a necklace. Colour is simple and the data is easy to collect, add up and judge.
So, first question, am I right, should it be thirty percent purple jewelry drops (Maybe ZOS have stated somewhere that purple jewelry is more rare than green and blue and that they have limited the drop rates ?) ? And secondly, if the drop rate should indeed be 30 percent, are enough people interested in testing this out?Edited by GreasyDave on December 1, 2016 9:30AM0 -
Cherryblossom✭✭✭✭✭
✭@Gil.Galad
Well done, probably the best written up explanation of the RNG issues, with very good examples of how this could be improved.
Just hope now that ZOS actually look and think about the issue.0 -
Rev Rielle✭✭✭✭✭
✭Each time we kill the final veteran boss we get its head/helm; most of the time they're just rubbish. Why not put these heads/helms to some use beyond deconstruction?
For example:
It would be nice if there were undaunted vendors that we could barter with these heads for a piece of useful equipment from that dungeon. Maybe it could be from someone in the dungeon itself once we've completed the quest therein.
One head for one piece of equipment from the list; we choose the weight, we choose the trait. Keep the drops and RNG system still if they like, just have something in addition that's more targeted for us if we're just wanting one thing.
Edited by Rev Rielle on December 1, 2016 10:04AMIf you can be anything, be kind.0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭
@Gil.Galad Nice chart, but wrong assumptions on vMA. It's been proven by now that weapons drop in 6 categories (Bow, Resto, Dagger/Axe, 2h melee, Destro, 1h/s), with each category having a 1/6 drop chance. Maybe you can adjust your chart to reflect the drop chance of a Sharpened Inferno: 1/6 (category) * 1/3 (3 weapons in category) * 1/8 (traits) = 1/144
I updated the OP adding a section about MSA and DSA using your assumptions for the calculations.0 -
Armitas✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Hello,
That red line is despicable and ZOS should be ashamed for intentionally treating it's customers like that. A few months ago it was just our faith in ZOS that was gone, now it's our trust as well. Heck of a combo. So whose ready to buy those crown crates? Anyone?Edited by Armitas on December 1, 2016 12:12PMRetired.
Nord mDK0 -
iAmLife✭✭✭Should get you to do my maths work...
I'll own you fool, COME AT ME YOU SON OF A GUN, hi names Life... LIKE FOR LIFE kthnxbye1 -
NinthPrince64✭✭✭Maybe it would be useful to think of ZOS as a central banker rather than an individual caseworker? If you think about it, they are managing a (fairly complex) economy of resources/damage/commerce. I think they probably view things in the aggregate rather than at the level of the individual player.
Maybe one explanation for the (vMSA) RNG is that they have a view of what the overall distribution of, say, weapon power should be within the game's system. Maybe under the old system, the weapon ecology was getting overweighted in terms of high end weapons. Also, as people mastered vMSA and the RATE at which those weapons entering the system increased, maybe they fealt they had to adjust that rate by lowering the odds of getting a useful item per (increasingly faster) run?0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭GreasyDave wrote: »SpoilerExcellent post OP.
I personally believe the RNG to be rigged -and I believe it's quite simple to prove it. I know about personal observation bias. But I was thinking about this last night and wanted to post about it - and hey presto, here's your thread. So before I propose my modest proposal for the community to simply check the RNG together, I'd like to double check my maths.
The simple check for hidden RNG bias can be made with dolmen jewelry drops. Every dolmen drops a piece. It can be one of three colours, blue, green or purple. My understanding of the odds are that thirty three percent of the drops ought to be purple, if we spread the drops over a large enough set of data.
Am I correct in thinking this?
Because if I am, from my personal observation (and this is open to to pure personal observation bias), I definitely don't get thirty three percent purple. Far from it. I've done about fifty dolmens since one tamriel and though I didn't actually stop and record the results, I'm sure I've had less than 15 percent. Last night for instance, 13 dolmens, 1 purple.
Now I know my personal results can be excused as me being unlucky and somebody else somewhere is getting more than thirty three percent purple -but I truly don't believe that. I have yet to meet a guildie or mate or anyone in zone chat comment, wow, I got lucky, did a few dolmens today and got a bunch of purples.
However, unlike all the the other chests and weapon drops, the dolmen drop rate is very very easy to test as a community if we should so wish. All it requires is honesty and an hour of interested players' time.
If over the next couple of days, week or month interested players dedicated an hour to a dolmen run (they can do it independently, when they've got free time spare -nothing too organised) and posted their results either in this thread or a new one I can start (don't want to hijack your thread) -and I will start one if there is interest - we would quickly get a data set large enough to see a pattern, I would have thought. All we're testing is colour - not whether its a ring or a necklace. Colour is simple and the data is easy to collect, add up and judge.
So, first question, am I right, should it be thirty percent purple jewelry drops (Maybe ZOS have stated somewhere that purple jewelry is more rare than green and blue and that they have limited the drop rates ?) ? And secondly, if the drop rate should indeed be 30 percent, are enough people interested in testing this out?
I would not assume that there is an equal probability for green, blue and purple items. I would expect around 10-20% for purple jewelry. If you want to test it you should record at least 100 drops, better would be 200+. I checked the first 200 undaunted keys I used and found that the traits were pretty evenly distributed, so I don't think that the RNG is rigged.
When you record your drops make sure to record everything within a time period, you set before recording. Otherwise you might be biased reporting after many good or bad drops.
If you post your data here I can work out the drop chances and might add a RNG section for overland sets in the OP.0 -
MakoFore✭✭✭✭✭
✭my god thats depressing. I've opened about 70 middle chests- the dlc one - in hopes of getting a heavy impen veil or medium divines. still none yet- and that chest has only 4 shoulders!! I've got mighty chudan up the arse though.....
as for vMA ?! i used to think those guys who had videos that memorised the spawns and had all maelstroms weapons had a sixth sense of anticipation and reflexes. now i realise its the mind numbing repetition of having done the same thing over and over again for a year. I've only done it for a few weeks now and am starting to see spawn spots around corners....0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭NinthPrince64 wrote: »Maybe it would be useful to think of ZOS as a central banker rather than an individual caseworker? If you think about it, they are managing a (fairly complex) economy of resources/damage/commerce. I think they probably view things in the aggregate rather than at the level of the individual player.
Maybe one explanation for the (vMSA) RNG is that they have a view of what the overall distribution of, say, weapon power should be within the game's system. Maybe under the old system, the weapon ecology was getting overweighted in terms of high end weapons. Also, as people mastered vMSA and the RATE at which those weapons entering the system increased, maybe they fealt they had to adjust that rate by lowering the odds of getting a useful item per (increasingly faster) run?
The number of weapons is indeed controlled by the odds of getting one. But thats not the real problem. On average it takes 144 runs to get a sharpened flame staff, but for the individual players the probability of having one after 144 runs is approx 65%. So 35% of the players will need more than the 144 runs and even after 350 runs about 12% of the players won't have the desired staff. This problem arises from the fact that the weapons are not tradeable, therefore the inequalities in drop luck can't be negated by the market. If the BOP restriction stays, the only way of decreasing the inequality is by deacreasing the possible weapon drops/traits. Less possible outcomes means, that the individual players will approach the average after fewer runs.0 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Obligatory comment about the abysmal chances to get a sharpened Burning Spellweave sword... let alone the 2 that are required.
@Thal
What you speak about has the worst odds in the game. The thread I linked is related to that and maybe worth adding your thoughts to it.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/300662/the-problem-with-weapon-drops-in-one-tamriel/p10
