Has the bottom fallen out of the market for guild sales?

hiyde · July 10

I don't think it was any one thing, I think it was a number of things that caused this change to the economy on PCNA. (the server I'm on, so that's all I can speak to).

In looking at sales numbers for two high volume guilds over the past 10 weeks:

The biggest dive in sales was week #19, this was just after Jubliee ended (after not seeing the usual Jubilee bump) and sales cratered 40% in one week.

Sales went up and down modestly in the following 9 weeks, but overall trended down, ending up down about 50% from late 2023/early 2024 averages. The annual chapter launch also provided no sales bump and neither did Zenithar.

From the perspective of a trade guild officer, I'm fine with whatever sales are as long as bids adjust similarly. And it's on the leadership of trade guilds to determine appopriate bids their membership will support.

Causes: I think a combination of everything being discussed here (and more things) played a role.

- Fatigue from 30 straight days of events including an extended Jubliee
- Fatigue and crankyness from farming those style pages.
- Lukewarm reception to Gold Road (number of players online in our guilds down noticably from other Chapters)
- Primary source of Ink farming coming from mat nodes (which are most of the perennial top selling items) causing a continuing glut of mats.
- The talked about mass-removal of gold sellers (is this confirmed? If so was it just after Jubliee by any chance?)
- Zenithar added more free stuff (but did not bump sales)
- Changes to listings/mails (Not a fan of this change, but I do believe impact is mostly limited to rare/high value things and does not explain why stuff like Dreugh Wax is down by 50%+)
- Tepid reception to U43's Housing Feature

As I mentioned, the big dive in sales happened right after Jubliee ended. (-40%). Since that week, sales have trended downward another 10% overall. The last time we saw sales numbers like this was mid-2022.

If you're in trade guild(s) that you enjoy and that you feel are run well, be sure to continue to support them, even if you can't help as much as you did in the past. While there are always exceptions, most folks that run trade guilds are unpaid volunteers who enjoy helping others get the most out of ESO, from trading to other aspects of the game.

We'll get through this adjustment. Solid guilds will still thrive. New ones will rise up the ranks, as it has always been.

Shara_Wynn · July 10

I think sales are through the floor. I have always sold 20% under TTC recommended prices and had no problem selling (usually within the first day or two of placing the listing). I am currently listing stuff well under half (50-60%) of what TTC recommends and very little is selling.

Not sure it is the new listing limitation of 14 days as normally my stuff sells within the first day or two. If it hasn't sold in the first day or two, then I am pretty sure it's not going to sell anyway. But now next to nothing is selling.

Regarding sales prices going down, I don't see the point in listing any items that are worth less than 5k. With the rate items have dropped, the number and type of items I feel is worth listing decreases. As such I now no longer see the point in listing many of the items I previously would have. I am sure I am not the only one who thinks this.

So for those who think this is a good thing, I disagree, because it will just mean sellers will either sell to vendors, deconstruct, hoard or give to alts, rather than waste money and time listing items and having to deal with all the returns after 14 days because even with listings well under TTC, their items are still not selling.

So less choice of items for sale in the long run I think.

Let's hope it is just fatigue.

SilverBride · July 10

hiyde wrote: »

- Fatigue from 30 straight days of events including an extended Jubliee
- Fatigue and crankyness from farming those style pages.

That's when I noticed a sudden drop in how much my crafting mats were selling for, and those are were my main source of income.

I used to sell all the gold mats I got every day but now I'm holding most of them back because I hate taking such a loss.

I'm not saying that prices should go back to what they were before but they need to stop dropping and level out.

tom6143346 · July 10

And most people hate to pay astronomical prices for gold mats and other stuffThey are now at an way more reasonable price point. Most mats where very overpriced in the past especially when you see how much of them on the market at the moment . You will still make a very good profit even with actual prices. Price will go up again it’s just a matter of time.

tom6143346 · July 10

And let’s don’t forget it is summer a lot of people choose to spend there time outside and not in front of a computer, that will change againnwhen it getting colder and so will prices. We just need a bit patience but I really don’t see a market crash or something.

sarahthes · July 10

SilverBride wrote: »

hiyde wrote: »

- Fatigue from 30 straight days of events including an extended Jubliee
- Fatigue and crankyness from farming those style pages.

That's when I noticed a sudden drop in how much my crafting mats were selling for, and those are were my main source of income.

I used to sell all the gold mats I got every day but now I'm holding most of them back because I hate taking such a loss.

I'm not saying that prices should go back to what they were before but they need to stop dropping and level out.

Well, as long as I still need to pay the same price for a guild trader I'm going to be selling the highest volume I can at the highest price it will sell for, which I have dropped every week. I'm sure a lot of others are doing the same, so the price is likely to continue falling.

SilverBride · July 10

sarahthes wrote: »

SilverBride wrote: »

hiyde wrote: »

- Fatigue from 30 straight days of events including an extended Jubliee
- Fatigue and crankyness from farming those style pages.

That's when I noticed a sudden drop in how much my crafting mats were selling for, and those are were my main source of income.

I used to sell all the gold mats I got every day but now I'm holding most of them back because I hate taking such a loss.

I'm not saying that prices should go back to what they were before but they need to stop dropping and level out.

Well, as long as I still need to pay the same price for a guild trader I'm going to be selling the highest volume I can at the highest price it will sell for, which I have dropped every week. I'm sure a lot of others are doing the same, so the price is likely to continue falling.

I'm selling other things I normally don't to try to make up the difference, and I still donate gold every week above and beyond what is expected of me. But I'm bringing in about half what I used to each week.

Nharimlur_Finor · July 10

edited

SilverBride · July 10

LaintalAy wrote: »

You clearly forgot that IT IS WINTER IN A LEAST HALF OF THE PLANET CURRENTLY. People in the southern hemisphere aren't on summer vacations and are still playing. Just as while you're asleep, other people are making lunch.

Half of the planet geographically doesn't mean half of the planet population wise. We have to factor in what percentage of players are in summer months as opposed to those that are in winter right now. If the majority are in summer then this could be a factor.

tom6143346 · July 10

I should have say I speak about the eu server here don’t not much about na. So I wouldn’t say it’s completely wrong that’s a bit drastic. But of course it’s like the real life , there will be not only one reason, it will be a mix of different things happening. There is is no easy answer but I am sure market will adapt as well as people will.

Personofsecrets · July 10

Has it been ruled out that the PTS issue which happened didn't cause a massive amount of resources to get into some live accounts?

Jimbru · July 10

- Over the last few months, I've had hardly any sales from my primary guild's trader in Glenumbra, while my trade guild's trader in Belkarth was selling well. Now since the Zeal event, both traders are selling at low to moderate levels. Weird.
- Materials prices have plunged; Columbine has dropped almost 50% last I looked. The drop began when anniversary event box farming added tons of rare mats to the economy, and now ink farming is keeping prices depressed. Gold Road hasn't been out even two months yet, so it's too early to tell if this is permanent, or just due to Scribing being new so everyone is doing it. We'll see.
- The 14 day duration is definitely hurting prices. You can't just slap something up for an average price anymore and expect it to eventually sell. Which is good in some ways because a lot of stuff was deliberately overpriced, but overall it's a pain.

freespirit · July 10

So I don't farm/sell most mats but like a large chunk of players my craft bag is currently bulging with them, so I have...

1:- Dropped my mat prices(mostly gold mats) significantly

2:- Looked through my many furnishing plans, picked the pretty/animated ones and used some of my excess mats to craft and sell those

3:- Trawled through the style pages I saved when everyone else was giving them away, especially those that came from events that aren't repeated often.

Working ok atm but it is a fact I now have to put more thought into what I am selling!

CrashTest · July 10

hiyde wrote: »

And it's on the leadership of trade guilds to determine appopriate bids their membership will support.

Those traders still demanding sales and contributions to support 100+ million bids are delusional at this point. They need to cut their bids and reqs by half or more because the insane strain on top sellers is just going to make them leave and tank the guilds.

Alpheu5 · July 10

LaintalAy wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And let’s don’t forget it is summer a lot of people choose to spend there time outside and not in front of a computer, that will change againnwhen it getting colder and so will prices. We just need a bit patience but I really don’t see a market crash or something.

You clearly forgot that IT IS WINTER IN A LEAST HALF OF THE PLANET CURRENTLY. People in the southern hemisphere aren't on summer vacations and are still playing. Just as while you're asleep, other people are making lunch.

The assumptions that you have made here are incorrect in every respect.

The vast majority of the earth's population is in the northern hemisphere. If the entire southern hemisphere were to be instantly erased, the earth's population would be close to what it was in 2005 lol

SeaGtGruff · July 10

Ph1p wrote: »

Funny how when prices fall, people talk about oversaturated supply and low demand. But when they’re high, it’s because of an evil cabal of guild traders that artificially inflate prices. Maybe they and all the flippers are on summer vacation?

Or "they" quit trading because they don't like the new 14-day listing limit?

What I find interesting is that when the prices are absurdly high, the traders happily talk about how "healthy" the economy is, even though the average player can't afford to buy what they want/need. But when the prices come down to where the average player can actually afford to buy stuff, the traders gloomily talk about how the economy is in dire straits. It seems like the exact opposite of real-world economics.

Of course, the buyers always feel the exact opposite of the sellers-- they're unhappy when prices are high, and happy when prices are low.

IMHO, an economy is not "healthily balanced" unless it's at a good middle ground between those two extremes. It's been skewed toward the sellers' side for a long time, and now it's swung toward the buyers' side for a time. Hopefully it will settle toward the middle eventually.

vsrs_au · July 10

LaintalAy wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And let’s don’t forget it is summer a lot of people choose to spend there time outside and not in front of a computer, that will change againnwhen it getting colder and so will prices. We just need a bit patience but I really don’t see a market crash or something.

You clearly forgot that IT IS WINTER IN A LEAST HALF OF THE PLANET CURRENTLY. People in the southern hemisphere aren't on summer vacations and are still playing. Just as while you're asleep, other people are making lunch.

The assumptions that you have made here are incorrect in every respect.

The assumption you just made is incorrect, because 90% of the world's population resides in the northern hemisphere.

Jimbru · July 10

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

What I find interesting is that when the prices are absurdly high, the traders happily talk about how "healthy" the economy is, even though the average player can't afford to buy what they want/need. But when the prices come down to where the average player can actually afford to buy stuff, the traders gloomily talk about how the economy is in dire straits. It seems like the exact opposite of real-world economics.

Of course, the buyers always feel the exact opposite of the sellers-- they're unhappy when prices are high, and happy when prices are low.

When you strip away the elitism and jargon, economics really is very simple. In the real world, when the "spending class" of gen pop workers and consumers has enough money for the given conditions to feel safe spending it, the economy is good. When they don't for whatever reason (inflated prices, money supply, etc.) the economy is bad. Therefore the goal of economic management should be to create those safe conditions and keep money flowing into and through the hands of the spending class. Concentrating wealth in corporations and the offshore bank accounts of the 1% takes that money out of circulation, and thus is anathema to a healthy economy. So if you want a healthy economy, eat the rich and keep the money moving. Wealth properly should be a side effect of a healthy economy, not an end in itself.

The same general principle applies in the game. The rich sellers who were profiteering at high prices now think the economy is "bad" because prices have dropped, when actually, they were and are part of the problem. Once things settle out, it will be better because players can afford more, so gold and goods will be moving in larger quantities, albeit at lower prices.

Nharimlur_Finor · July 10

edited

TaSheen · July 10

Y'know, there was thread after thread after thread since maybe the first of the year with people complaining about inflation (especially on PC NA) and begging for ZOS to "fix it".

So.... apparently ZOS thought y'all really meant it.

vsrs_au · July 10

LaintalAy wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

LaintalAy wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And let’s don’t forget it is summer a lot of people choose to spend there time outside and not in front of a computer, that will change againnwhen it getting colder and so will prices. We just need a bit patience but I really don’t see a market crash or something.

You clearly forgot that IT IS WINTER IN A LEAST HALF OF THE PLANET CURRENTLY. People in the southern hemisphere aren't on summer vacations and are still playing. Just as while you're asleep, other people are making lunch.

The assumptions that you have made here are incorrect in every respect.

The assumption you just made is incorrect, because 90% of the world's population resides in the northern hemisphere.

"they are still playing" is the only assumption made.

That's just not true. You replied to a previous post, and it was very clear from your reply that you were making the assumption that a significant proportion of the world's population resides in the southern hemisphere. Anyway, I won't be replying to your posts any more, so you can continue trolling if you wish, I'll be ignoring it.

Pelanora · July 10

Buyers get cheaper goods, sellers are getting less money.

It's a buyers market.

Not sure zos will see that as a bad thing.

Charlesce · July 10

Most likely the same people who are saying prices coming down is a good thing are the same people who are unwilling to farm for an hour.

Good luck maxing out your bag space on alternate toons when dreugh wax inevitably drops to 5k each. But hey, at least you'll be able to farm quests to get the gold you need to buy stuff. At the current state of things, it's almost more lucrative to spend my time farming vet trials for Undaunted Plunder than it is to go farm nodes.

When chromium plating was 500k each, sure it was 500k each, but guess what, all you had to do was farm for a couple hours and you were a millionaire.

Perfect Roe used to be worth your time to fish for yourself at 100k. There's no way I'm fishing for over an hour for a chance at 1 Perfect Roe every ~110 fish if said Roe is worth a paltry 40k, and flipping it into Ambrosia is just a more convoluted way to inevitably lose money.

Newcomers ought to stop disregarding what old hats are warning them about. It's not a bunch of shills trying to gatekeep being rich - it's a lot of people with extensive knowledge and experience about the ESO market who are seeing huge red flags everywhere they look in the market. You can't gatekeep being rich if all it took to get rich was just farm for a few hours. Crowns are not coming down in price and neither are guild trader bids. Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades (maxing bag space on 20 toons will cost ~3.6 million). Some houses are over 1 million as well, these too will become too expensive for us mere mortals to afford when dreugh wax drops to 5k each.

oldbobdude · July 10

To each their own opinion. I am tired of relisting and getting hit with guild and gold sink fees multiple times. So I am just keeping most of my stuff. Gold mats still sell at reduced price so that’s ok.

manatlarge · July 10

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

SpiritKitten · July 10

As someone who pays for a guild trader, we have already reduced our bid. Still got the spot. I hope the insane prices of trader bids comes down. I was suspicious this was the main goal of reducing the listing time to 14 days. Seems to be working. I'm taking advantage of these low prices to sell off a bunch of low-end recipes and motifs for a few thousand more than just selling to a merchant gets. I practically sell out every day. Clearing out my inventory mules, hell yeah. I am still worried tho about the lower price of mats and high-end recipes I usually sell for income, and obviously won't be able to keep up the trader costs for much longer. I am not a doom-and-gloomer, but the game seems to be spiraling.

NoTimeToWait · July 10

Jimbru wrote: »

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

What I find interesting is that when the prices are absurdly high, the traders happily talk about how "healthy" the economy is, even though the average player can't afford to buy what they want/need. But when the prices come down to where the average player can actually afford to buy stuff, the traders gloomily talk about how the economy is in dire straits. It seems like the exact opposite of real-world economics.

Of course, the buyers always feel the exact opposite of the sellers-- they're unhappy when prices are high, and happy when prices are low.

When you strip away the elitism and jargon, economics really is very simple. In the real world, when the "spending class" of gen pop workers and consumers has enough money for the given conditions to feel safe spending it, the economy is good. When they don't for whatever reason, the economy is bad. Therefore the goal of economic management should be to create those safe conditions and keep money flowing into and through the hands of the spending class. Concentrating wealth in corporations and the offshore bank accounts of the 1% takes that money out of circulation, and thus is anathema to a healthy economy. So if you want a healthy economy, eat the rich and keep the money moving. Wealth properly should be a side effect of a healthy economy, not an end in itself.

The same general principle applies in the game. The rich sellers who were profiteering at high prices now think the economy is "bad" because prices have dropped, when actually, they were and are part of the problem. Once things settle out, it will be better because players can afford more, so gold and goods will be moving in larger quantities, albeit at lower prices.

The economy is bad not because the prices are falling, but because the falling is currently is in a negative feedback loop. The reason: when prices are falling, everyone is reluctant to spend money, because they will get a better deal in the near future. So people buy less, demand drops even more, prices drop even more, even more people spend less. That's one side of it. Another reason for a downward spiral, is that a lot of people have been holding their net value in resources, since it was an inflationary economy and you gained more by keeping gold in items. Now, it's the opposite, so every trader is currently trying to liquidate what they think is a surplus of the items and to buy them back at their lowest.

These are two current major engines behind the falling prices, that keep feeding into the downward loop, which is why traders consider the economy "bad". Because we entered a loop and it wouldn't stop until the demand picks up. And when that happens is anyones guess, since the sentiment needs to change from "sell" to "buy".

Well, that's discounting all other downward pressure on prices from ink farming, 14 day limit, long anniversary etc, because adding those things only make traders expect prices to drop further

TaSheen wrote: »

Y'know, there was thread after thread after thread since maybe the first of the year with people complaining about inflation (especially on PC NA) and begging for ZOS to "fix it".

So.... apparently ZOS thought y'all really meant it.

Indeed. But this had to be done by introducing gold sinks and syphoning gold out of the economy. Which would have been a better way to deal with inflation, because currently when the downward trend stops, inflation won't go anywhere, because the reasons for it weren't dealt with. It might get slower, but the prices will inevitably start to rise again.

What we are currently experiencing is a downward spiral that might be a bit too drastic. Time will tell. In any case, traders that are worth their salt will adjust.

The unfortunate thing is that such a drastic drop in sales volumes would just have a negative impact on sentiment anyway, so some traders might quit simply because of that

CrashTest · July 10

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

Charlesce · July 11

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

freespirit · July 11

Charlesce wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

Highest I saw on PC-EU was 3500:1 never saw 5000:1 either.