Has the bottom fallen out of the market for guild sales?

Charlesce

freespirit wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

Highest I saw on PC-EU was 3500:1 never saw 5000:1 either.

Yea I was fairly sure they've never been 5000. According to TCE, which essentially sets the status quo of the pricing for PC-NA, they were 2200:1 when the sky started falling, and they are now at 2100:1 - at a time when everything else has dropped 50% in value.

Jimbru

Charlesce wrote: »

freespirit wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

Highest I saw on PC-EU was 3500:1 never saw 5000:1 either.

Yea I was fairly sure they've never been 5000. According to TCE, which essentially sets the status quo of the pricing for PC-NA, they were 2200:1 when the sky started falling, and they are now at 2100:1 - at a time when everything else has dropped 50% in value.

I think the highest price I've ever seen for crowns on PCNA was somebody in Grahtwood zone chat trying to sell at 2500:1, and everyone was laughing at them for it. Which mind you, even the current 2100:1 on TCE is still way higher than it was a few years ago. I blame the money supply; the PCNA economy has more currency circulating than the economies of many real countries, with millions (billions?) of "new" gold added every day just from everyone doing daily writs, and there aren't enough gold sinks in the game to keep it balanced, so inflation keeps inflating. Something eventually has to give on that front, and it will be an interesting day when it does.

manatlarge

CrashTest wrote: »

Those traders still demanding sales and contributions to support 100+ million bids are delusional at this point. They need to cut their bids and reqs by half or more because the insane strain on top sellers is just going to make them leave and tank the guilds.

Before we start tossing around words like "delusional", maybe allow some time for those trading guilds to react. This has never happened before, and we had major milestones that usually drive sales up. So they've probably been trying to figure out what bids should look like now as reality sets in that things aren't reverting any time soon.

I'm in 5 major trade guilds. 3 of them just drastically lowered dues tonight. The other two are talking about it. They ARE adapting.

M1SHAAN

Well on the positive side someone might be able to publish an academic paper about all this in a few years

tom6143346

Highest on eu I saw was 4000: 1 even 4200 some have tried

MidniteOwl1913

tom6143346 wrote: »

And most people hate to pay astronomical prices for gold mats and other stuffThey are now at an way more reasonable price point. Most mats where very overpriced in the past especially when you see how much of them on the market at the moment . You will still make a very good profit even with actual prices. Price will go up again it’s just a matter of time.

At some point those cheap prices will evaporate as sellers decide it's just not worth the effort.

When it all settles out prices may end up higher.

TaSheen

MidniteOwl1913 wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And most people hate to pay astronomical prices for gold mats and other stuffThey are now at an way more reasonable price point. Most mats where very overpriced in the past especially when you see how much of them on the market at the moment . You will still make a very good profit even with actual prices. Price will go up again it’s just a matter of time.

At some point those cheap prices will evaporate as sellers decide it's just not worth the effort.

When it all settles out prices may end up higher.

Well.... I won't be interacting with it in any case....

Charlesce

Sarcasm helps!

I found this new overland set called "Wall Street Bets". The tooltip says: "Your guild trader listings have a 20% chance to inflict Major Devaluation, causing the TTC suggested/average to drop by 10%, cumulatively. This effect stacks with other players wearing Wall Street Bets. This effect can occur any time a guild trader listing is created, and lasts indefinitely".

Orbital78

I can barely sell inks that are said to be so ultra rare for 25-28k lately. I guess I will need to adapt and find new things to sell, or just accept not needing to refill the trader daily anymore. Wood mats are almost down to the value of just selling them to the vendor.

Pelanora

MidniteOwl1913 wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And most people hate to pay astronomical prices for gold mats and other stuffThey are now at an way more reasonable price point. Most mats where very overpriced in the past especially when you see how much of them on the market at the moment . You will still make a very good profit even with actual prices. Price will go up again it’s just a matter of time.

At some point those cheap prices will evaporate as sellers decide it's just not worth the effort.

When it all settles out prices may end up higher.

Guilds force high prices by demanding high sales to enable high bids to get the best locations. That top down pressure on prices needs to change, not just the supply side being so flooded buyers can choose cheapest offerings.

From the posts in here it seems it is changing. This is a good thing. There was probably an easier way to change it, via more spots, or maybe different allocation methods than auctions.

MidniteOwl1913

Pelanora wrote: »

MidniteOwl1913 wrote: »

tom6143346 wrote: »

And most people hate to pay astronomical prices for gold mats and other stuffThey are now at an way more reasonable price point. Most mats where very overpriced in the past especially when you see how much of them on the market at the moment . You will still make a very good profit even with actual prices. Price will go up again it’s just a matter of time.

At some point those cheap prices will evaporate as sellers decide it's just not worth the effort.

When it all settles out prices may end up higher.

Guilds force high prices by demanding high sales to enable high bids to get the best locations. That top down pressure on prices needs to change, not just the supply side being so flooded buyers can choose cheapest offerings.

I'm planning on just leaving the guilds with higher dues. Shrug. If I can't make enough gold what's the point?

Araneae6537

freespirit wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

Highest I saw on PC-EU was 3500:1 never saw 5000:1 either.

The highest I ever saw on PC NA was 2500:1

Orbital78

Araneae6537 wrote: »

The highest I ever saw on PC NA was 2500:1

During the crown trade/selling change where there were many that couldn't gift, PC-NA had some pretty high rates beyond 3000-3500. I think the rate has been pretty stable around 2000 lately.

Ph1p

Pelanora wrote: »

Guilds force high prices by demanding high sales to enable high bids to get the best locations. That top down pressure on prices needs to change, not just the supply side being so flooded buyers can choose cheapest offerings.

The fact that guilds are now adapting their rules shows that it's mostly the other way around. Prices force guild policy, not vice versa. When prices are high and guild sales are booming, requirements are increased to defend your trader spot. When prices and economic activity are low, quotas are decreased accordingly to avoid unnecessary churn of guild members.

Besides that, traders mostly don't and can't just pass on their guild dues to buyers. A guild demanding twice as many sales doesn't increase demand or willingness to pay. The key to high sales is not just price, but volume and a quick turnover of your limited trading slots. So people make sure their listings are full, cancel those that haven't sold, and even relist at lower prices to get a sale more quickly.

Another example of this is how guilds react to getting a "lower-tier" trader location that has lower prices, because their usual trader bid didn't work out. The first thing you'll hear is to check listings and potentially adjust prices to the new location.

h9dlb

M1SHAAN wrote: »

Well on the positive side someone might be able to publish an academic paper about all this in a few years

Probably entitled "How to break a successful game and lose 25% of a player base in 4 weeks"

LaintalAy

edited

tom6143346

And thanks to scribing and the heroism it brings i stopped using heroism pots in my progs unless we start to resetting on death but until that point it saved me the one or another million. So I just don’t need to buy them that often any more. There are lot of reasons why sales dropping. It really isn’t one

Pevey

I'm not sure this will last very long once players recover from the scribing gold sink and anniversary inventories start to dwindle, but even if it does, I think it will be fine. Better than fine, actually. I think lower prices is good for the health of the game.

The trader thing is a whole other can of worms. People in 5 different trading guild vying for the same spots and wondering why bids are so expensive. You're supporting competition amongst your own guilds. People have very different ways of playing this game, and trying to get the highest top-line weekly revenue numbers is one way, and that's fine. For some people, master merchant is a leaderboard. They have no actual use for the gold. But there is a cost to doing that "content," just like there is a cost to doing HMs or pvp in terms of equipment and pots.

Charlesce

LaintalAy wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Most likely the same people who are saying prices coming down is a good thing are the same people who are unwilling to farm for an hour.

Good luck maxing out your bag space on alternate toons when dreugh wax inevitably drops to 5k each. But hey, at least you'll be able to farm quests to get the gold you need to buy stuff. At the current state of things, it's almost more lucrative to spend my time farming vet trials for Undaunted Plunder than it is to go farm nodes.

When chromium plating was 500k each, sure it was 500k each, but guess what, all you had to do was farm for a couple hours and you were a millionaire.

Perfect Roe used to be worth your time to fish for yourself at 100k. There's no way I'm fishing for over an hour for a chance at 1 Perfect Roe every ~110 fish if said Roe is worth a paltry 40k, and flipping it into Ambrosia is just a more convoluted way to inevitably lose money.

Newcomers ought to stop disregarding what old hats are warning them about. It's not a bunch of shills trying to gatekeep being rich - it's a lot of people with extensive knowledge and experience about the ESO market who are seeing huge red flags everywhere they look in the market. You can't gatekeep being rich if all it took to get rich was just farm for a few hours. Crowns are not coming down in price and neither are guild trader bids. Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades (maxing bag space on 20 toons will cost ~3.6 million). Some houses are over 1 million as well, these too will become too expensive for us mere mortals to afford when dreugh wax drops to 5k each.

Not one Guild is forced to maintain a 'trading spot' in any location, anywhere. They choose this. They then pass the cost of this strategy onto their members. No-one is forcing Guild members to stay at these guilds. These players choose this.

The 'exchange rate of Crowns' cannot possibly have any effect on Guild sales turnover.
You cannot technically 'sell' Crowns. This is a private exchange between individual players, even when using an intermediary.

The real problem with ESO is that everyone comes to this game not understanding just how much time is required to play it.
As people have recently point out: Time is money. Feel free to join the dots up, yourself.

Your post really highlights just how out-of-control a lot of players are. Nothing that you describe is essential to playing the game. You don't actually need houses. You don't need to buy 12 extra character slots for the sole purpose of 'storing items' You don't even need to a million gold pieces in your bank at any one time to but something that you 'need'.

There is nothing required by this game that you NEED to spend 1 000 000gp on. Nothing.

I actually do need 12 extra toons and I actually do need all their bag space maxed out. Maybe you don't need that, but not everyone is the same as you. Some people play without ESO+ and they need millions of gold to get bag space, and millions more to buy crowns for more toons

There are plenty of things in this game that people need that require 1M+ gold to be spent.

If you wanna get technical about what is actually needed and what is not needed, to be technical we don't need armor or weapons, a Group Finder, ToT, Guilds, Banks, Mounts....TECHNICALLY we can all just stand around near wayshrines with 60 bag space and emote for our 2000hrs playtime until it gets too boring.

I_killed_Vivec

ZoS QoL announcement for this year...

"Hey, we've been listening and we know you don't like the 14 day expiry date, so for this year's QoL upgrade we are extending it to 30 days! Yes, that's 30 days! Remember, ZoS listens!"

Pelanora

I'm very interested in the idea people make 12 toons and max them out vs one or two toons else the game gets boring. And so they need millions and millions of gold. And so they need high prices in the trader. Which locks everyone else- not worth a fortune- out of buying things.

If the game has run its course, do something else?

I'm aware some people spend really huge amounts of time in this game, but this seems extreme.

CrashTest

Orbital78 wrote: »

Araneae6537 wrote: »

The highest I ever saw on PC NA was 2500:1

During the crown trade/selling change where there were many that couldn't gift, PC-NA had some pretty high rates beyond 3000-3500. I think the rate has been pretty stable around 2000 lately.

Yep, anyone following the crown market closely knows this. Prices got insane, but now they've dropped back to what it was before the change.

LaintalAy

edited

SeaGtGruff

Pelanora wrote: »

I'm very interested in the idea people make 12 toons and max them out vs one or two toons else the game gets boring. And so they need millions and millions of gold. And so they need high prices in the trader. Which locks everyone else- not worth a fortune- out of buying things.

If the game has run its course, do something else?

I'm aware some people spend really huge amounts of time in this game, but this seems extreme.

I spend really huge amounts of time in this game, but I spend the vast majority of it on just two characters-- one on PC NA, and one on PC EU.

I spend very little time on my 17 alts-- 8 on PC NA, and 7 on PC EU-- just long enough to log in on each, grab their mail, have them scan through my banked loot for any recipes or motifs or scripts to learn, withdraw any specific types of items that they are being used as mules for, and check on the progress of their traits research.

I stopped doing daily writs on all of my alts, because I prefer to spend more time having fun in the game-- and I do that on my main characters.

Kappachi

Charlesce wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

manatlarge wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

Old hats are seeing that this is not sustainable because there are 3 things that are resistant or entirely unaffected by the whims of the market: Guild trader bids, Crown costs, and bag space upgrades

Guild trader bids are absolutely coming down, dramatically. Especially in the busy zones like Mournhold. Can't do 150 million bids if your guildies are contributing 50 mill to the cause. Not for any length of time, anyway.

Yep, that post is all kinds of wrong. Crown prices have also dropped. It peaked at 5k on both PCs and is now down to about 2k on NA and 3k on EU.

When were crown prices 5000:1 on PC-NA? Couldn't have been in the last 5 years

Never was. Prior to the crown crate/gifting restriction stuff it was like 1:1200, then it spiked to like 1:2500 and now it's consistently been 1:1500-2000 on PCNA, somewhere in the game at any time of day you can get someone to sell to you for 1:1500.... it has never been 1:5000, ever within the game itself, maybe with some exchange where you have to pay a middleman or something but I don't deal with middlemen.

TaSheen

Pelanora wrote: »

I'm very interested in the idea people make 12 toons and max them out vs one or two toons else the game gets boring. And so they need millions and millions of gold. And so they need high prices in the trader. Which locks everyone else- not worth a fortune- out of buying things.

If the game has run its course, do something else?

I'm aware some people spend really huge amounts of time in this game, but this seems extreme.

Only 12 characters? I have MANY more than that, across 4 accounts that I play on both PC megaservers. I have a total of ~ 7.5 million across my PC NA accounts and ~10 million across my PC EU accounts. That's after 7 years in this game. I don't have a lot to spend gold on.... furnishings some, houses when there's one I really want, stuff to make gear for new CP 160s if I'm short somewhere.

I'm not sure what "huge amounts of time in game" equates to. On a normal day, I start playing about 7am, and quite about 2pm - and that's with time outs for laundry, cleaning, cooking, eating, trips to town....

I don't have characters as mules. I've subbed ESO on every account for 7 years, paying annually. I won't be changing anything any time soon....

Charlesce

I need 6 mules JUST TO HOLD SURVEYS. Another mule to hold mat stacks, another mule to hold provis/alchemy daily turn-in mats, and 2 more mules to hold random rarely used stuff. All 8 of my furnishing coffers are full with master writs because I save them for double XP like a non-wasteful person. I need 10 mules JUST to hold stuff. I said earlier maxing bag space is 3.6M. That means I need 1.8M just to hold stuff on my 10 mules, without an ESO+ bag.

When you've purchased DLC's separately (as opposed to having them included in eso+), the daily writs give you surveys for more and more different zones. (e.g. if you purchase western skyrim dlc you'll get western skyrim surveys, whereas if you have eso+ and didn't specifically purchase the DLC, you'll only get surveys on base game zones) this means there are some non eso+ members out there who not only have to live without the craft bag, and live without the double bank space, but also have to live with more inventory fodder along the way.
^This has been pointed out untrue, my bad, but is overall inventory fodder either way.

Without getting too far off the point of the thread, there are indeed people out there who need lots of gold, and newcomers joining after us who might lend themselves to a grindy playstyle will have no leg to stand on when dreugh wax is 5k each and they need mules

SpiritKitten

Charlesce wrote: »

When you've purchased DLC's separately (as opposed to having them included in eso+), the daily writs give you surveys for more and more different zones. (e.g. if you purchase western skyrim dlc you'll get western skyrim surveys, whereas if you have eso+ and didn't specifically purchase the DLC, you'll only get surveys on base game zones

Um...I get surveys from all zones and use ESO+.

EdjeSwift

Charlesce wrote: »

I need 6 mules JUST TO HOLD SURVEYS. Another mule to hold mat stacks, another mule to hold provis/alchemy daily turn-in mats, and 2 more mules to hold random rarely used stuff. All 8 of my furnishing coffers are full with master writs because I save them for double XP like a non-wasteful person. I need 10 mules JUST to hold stuff. I said earlier maxing bag space is 3.6M. That means I need 1.8M just to hold stuff on my 10 mules, without an ESO+ bag.

Why? 6 Mules? There are less than 200 Surveys in the game currently. If it's a mule just for Surveys you can use just one since it's "mule" and doesn't need gear/consumables. Here's the list:

DLC/Chapters: (60)
Gold Road Surveys - 6
Necrom Surveys - 6
High Isle Surveys - 6
Blackwood Surveys - 6
Western Skyrim Surveys - 6
Northern Elsweyr Surveys - 6
Vvardenfell Surveys - 6
Wrothgar Surveys - 18

Non-Alliance Lands:(30)
Craglorn Surveys - 18
Coldharbour Surveys - 12

Pact Lands (30)
The Rift - 6
Eastmarch - 6
Shadowfen - 6
Deshaan - 6
Stonefalls - 6

Covenant Lands (30)
Bangkorai - 6
Rivenspire - 6
Al'ikr Desert - 6
Stormhaven - 6
Glenumbra - 6

Dominion Lands (30)
Reaper's March - 6
Malabal Tor - 6
Greenshade - 6
Grahtwood - 6
Auridon - 6

Charlesce

EdjeSwift wrote: »

Charlesce wrote: »

I need 6 mules JUST TO HOLD SURVEYS. Another mule to hold mat stacks, another mule to hold provis/alchemy daily turn-in mats, and 2 more mules to hold random rarely used stuff. All 8 of my furnishing coffers are full with master writs because I save them for double XP like a non-wasteful person. I need 10 mules JUST to hold stuff. I said earlier maxing bag space is 3.6M. That means I need 1.8M just to hold stuff on my 10 mules, without an ESO+ bag.

Why? 6 Mules? There are less than 200 Surveys in the game currently. If it's a mule just for Surveys you can use just one since it's "mule" and doesn't need gear/consumables. Here's the list:

DLC/Chapters: (60)
Gold Road Surveys - 6
Necrom Surveys - 6
High Isle Surveys - 6
Blackwood Surveys - 6
Western Skyrim Surveys - 6
Northern Elsweyr Surveys - 6
Vvardenfell Surveys - 6
Wrothgar Surveys - 18

Non-Alliance Lands:(30)
Craglorn Surveys - 18
Coldharbour Surveys - 12

Pact Lands (30)
The Rift - 6
Eastmarch - 6
Shadowfen - 6
Deshaan - 6
Stonefalls - 6

Covenant Lands (30)
Bangkorai - 6
Rivenspire - 6
Al'ikr Desert - 6
Stormhaven - 6
Glenumbra - 6

Dominion Lands (30)
Reaper's March - 6
Malabal Tor - 6
Greenshade - 6
Grahtwood - 6
Auridon - 6

Glad you asked (not really)! I need additional overhead on every toon to be able to do daily writs, accept expired trader listings, and to hold gear to do rnds on either of the 3 roles, and not have to constantly shuffle inventory. This way I can actually go more than 1 day doing stuff without having to perform inventory maintenance on all toons.

Are you actually trying to use maths to disprove my experience? i know how much space i need and I know how many mules I need to keep things running smoothly and not reduce my game to 99% inventory management. I've tried holding all surveys on 2-3 toons and it inevitably leads to me needing to do way too much inventory management on said toons. Spreading it out to all 6 is the way I've found to ensure I have the available overhead I need to do my dailies and things

As for the DLC thing, I may be wrong, or it may have changed, but when I used to only have eso+, I only got base game surveys + wrothgar and craglorn. As I transitioned away from eso+ by purchasing DLCs outright, my dailies magically started giving me surveys for more zones. It may be that I just didn't notice before, or things changed (but I'm quite sure it was indeed the case that I only got base-zone surveys before purchasing DLCs), but regardless, the point remains that it's inventory fodder AF with surveys. (although this may be a moot point if the rumors are true that they're revamping surveys, for now it's this way)