Has the bottom fallen out of the market for guild sales?

LaintalAy

edited

CrazyKitty

The 14 day listing limitation is horrible. It's making me want to log on less often.

Ode2Order

They definitely broke something with this update. I'm not selling any of my more expensive, yet sought after, items, even at lowest price on TTC.

Araneae6537

Ode2Order wrote: »

They definitely broke something with this update. I'm not selling any of my more expensive, yet sought after, items, even at lowest price on TTC.

I don’t think anything was “broke” by the update but rather many players hoping to cash in on their Jubilee drops to buy things related to the new update, such as for scribing.

If your items are not selling, then they’re not as sought after as you think. Ciphers, for instance, perhaps most everyone who wanted one has one by now. I decided to eat mine, tasted like honey.

Orbital78

Maybe the secret U43 QOL housing addition was actually making all the furnishing mats value 50 gold.

Desiato

Araneae6537 wrote: »

Ode2Order wrote: »

They definitely broke something with this update. I'm not selling any of my more expensive, yet sought after, items, even at lowest price on TTC.

I don’t think anything was “broke” by the update but rather many players hoping to cash in on their Jubilee drops to buy things related to the new update, such as for scribing.

If your items are not selling, then they’re not as sought after as you think. Ciphers, for instance, perhaps most everyone who wanted one has one by now. I decided to eat mine, tasted like honey.

I agree that the system is not broken. It's just an adjustment period.

The market was booming last year in response to the conditions at the time, like the introduction of the Arcanist which drove mat and gear sales. The booming economy attracted new speculators who saw an opportunity to profit from rising prices.

The extended and HIGHLY REWARDING jubilee event had the reverse effect, saturating mat supplies. I think many players don't realize how rewarding the jubilee was because the mat rewards went straight to their crafting bags. It was staggering.

In the lull before the new chapter launch, many speculators tried to ride it out, expecting demand to increase. When that didn't happen, they started dumping inventory which had an exponential effect as dropping prices made players want to dump their inventory.

This is a shake down period. The market can't support as many speculators as it had, so this period will reduce them. There will a decline in activities that produce mats that have dropped in price. Eventually everything will settle down.

Who knows where prices will settle. It doesn't really matter because it's all relative. You may sell for less, but you can also buy for less. Guild traders will also adapt to the new market reality.

sarahthes

I'm curious - how are sales on console? PC EU? Because the bulk of issues I'm hearing about are on PC NA which was grossly over inflated.

Desiato

sarahthes wrote: »

I'm curious - how are sales on console? PC EU? Because the bulk of issues I'm hearing about are on PC NA which was grossly over inflated.

According to TCC, the avg sale price of dreugh wax has dropped by around 18% on PC/EU and 35% on PC/NA over the past month.

LaintalAy

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Twohothardware

I'd say a big reason is because there are just not a lot of new players coming into the game or old players coming back to the game. When your market place is veterans that regularly play the game they tend to already have the materials and items they want from playing and doing daily writs.

Also there just wasn't anything added in Gold Road that caused players to run out and buy a bunch of different materials or gear.

vsrs_au

LaintalAy wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

sarahthes wrote: »

I'm just waiting for guild trader prices to drop... but it's blind bidding so it's hard to know when it will.

... and I wonder how many guilds will be lost before that happens.

If you're saying that the majority of guilds will fold because they can no longer afford a trader in a 'premuim location', then I think you're wrong.

There are currently many guilds now that get on with a trading kiosk once every few weeks now.
Which is of course, the original design.

There are also many guilds that never have a trader.

We'll have to disagree on this, then. I think there's a distinct possibility that, before guild trader bids stabilise at lower prices, some trading guilds will end up closing, and the 14 day expiry change is one of the main factors causing this.

freespirit

sarahthes wrote: »

I'm curious - how are sales on console? PC EU? Because the bulk of issues I'm hearing about are on PC NA which was grossly over inflated.

Sales on PC-EU are still ok providing you take a hit on previous prices.....

I listed some gold mats on a non prime spot trader an hour ago I adjusted my prices considerably downwards, they sold whilst I was still doing my crafting dailies.

Everyone has to accept prices are down, how much you reduce your prices WILL affect how many expired mails you see!!

sarahthes

vsrs_au wrote: »

LaintalAy wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

sarahthes wrote: »

I'm just waiting for guild trader prices to drop... but it's blind bidding so it's hard to know when it will.

... and I wonder how many guilds will be lost before that happens.

If you're saying that the majority of guilds will fold because they can no longer afford a trader in a 'premuim location', then I think you're wrong.

There are currently many guilds now that get on with a trading kiosk once every few weeks now.
Which is of course, the original design.

There are also many guilds that never have a trader.

We'll have to disagree on this, then. I think there's a distinct possibility that, before guild trader bids stabilise at lower prices, some trading guilds will end up closing, and the 14 day expiry change is one of the main factors causing this.

I don't think the 14 day expiry has anything to do with it.

The fact that far less gold is available for purchase thru illegal third party sites, and that it costs triple or quadruple what it did 6 months ago, is likely the cause.

dk_dunkirk

I LOVE IT! The economy is finally STARTING to make sense again! I hope ZOS continues to make subtle changes to keep prices going lower. One of the most common replies to my complaint about PC NA pricing being broken was that, hey, if you want something, just sell something else (at high cost) and you can afford it! Easy peasy, right? By that same token, if EVERYTHING is cheaper now, then the very same reasoning applies. What's the difference? I'll tell you: Now I don't have to sell my rare materials for a piece of meta gear that I don't want to farm. The money I can make by selling my junk and killing enemies and getting rewards actually MATTERS in terms of the game's economy and default prices. This is absolutely a good thing for the community as a whole.

tomofhyrule

I definitely think the 14-day change did affect things, but I doubt it's the full picture. Particularly since the massive drop happened pretty well right as the patch dropped, and yet any listing that were already up were grandfathered in to be 30 days. If the 14-day listing was the exclusive reason, then we wouldn't have seen the massive drop until the grandfathered 30-day items expired or sold.

I do know that gold sellers in chat have dropped way off though, and I was in a trial with someone who said there was a huge gold seller banwave right around that time. Taking out those accounts (and all the gold they had on hand) would definitely have hit the market hard by essentially removing that gold from the economy.

The other big change is of course the number of people farming for ink. That'd crash mat prices due to massively increased supply, but not likely prices of other things that you don't harvest from resource nodes.

But yes, prices were obscenely inflated for a while, so the market is now starting to even back out by now. And yes, that means prices are lower. It will probably shutter a few guilds, but new ones will then come in and the big guilds will also eventually settle their trader bids lower.

sarahthes

dk_dunkirk wrote: »

I LOVE IT! The economy is finally STARTING to make sense again! I hope ZOS continues to make subtle changes to keep prices going lower. One of the most common replies to my complaint about PC NA pricing being broken was that, hey, if you want something, just sell something else (at high cost) and you can afford it! Easy peasy, right? By that same token, if EVERYTHING is cheaper now, then the very same reasoning applies. What's the difference? I'll tell you: Now I don't have to sell my rare materials for a piece of meta gear that I don't want to farm. The money I can make by selling my junk and killing enemies and getting rewards actually MATTERS in terms of the game's economy and default prices. This is absolutely a good thing for the community as a whole.

I agree with you. I think the economy crashing is sort of a good thing. I've also been able to ease my weekly guild trader bid downwards somewhat and still win, which makes me happy.

manukartofanu

Desiato wrote: »

I agree that the system is not broken. It's just an adjustment period.

The market was booming last year in response to the conditions at the time, like the introduction of the Arcanist which drove mat and gear sales. The booming economy attracted new speculators who saw an opportunity to profit from rising prices.

The extended and HIGHLY REWARDING jubilee event had the reverse effect, saturating mat supplies. I think many players don't realize how rewarding the jubilee was because the mat rewards went straight to their crafting bags. It was staggering.

In the lull before the new chapter launch, many speculators tried to ride it out, expecting demand to increase. When that didn't happen, they started dumping inventory which had an exponential effect as dropping prices made players want to dump their inventory.

This is a shake down period. The market can't support as many speculators as it had, so this period will reduce them. There will a decline in activities that produce mats that have dropped in price. Eventually everything will settle down.

Who knows where prices will settle. It doesn't really matter because it's all relative. You may sell for less, but you can also buy for less. Guild traders will also adapt to the new market reality.

Exactly. Additionally, I can mention that remaining resellers, due to falling prices and longer selling times, are also buying less and with much greater discounts. Reselling is not a charity; they factor in the cost of their lot and the risks associated with the purchase into the price. Therefore, discounts should be more significant to attract attention. And because of the current downward trend in prices, if your product isn't sold within the first five days, it won't sell at all since it's simply overpriced.

vsrs_au

manukartofanu wrote: »

Desiato wrote: »

I agree that the system is not broken. It's just an adjustment period.

The market was booming last year in response to the conditions at the time, like the introduction of the Arcanist which drove mat and gear sales. The booming economy attracted new speculators who saw an opportunity to profit from rising prices.

The extended and HIGHLY REWARDING jubilee event had the reverse effect, saturating mat supplies. I think many players don't realize how rewarding the jubilee was because the mat rewards went straight to their crafting bags. It was staggering.

In the lull before the new chapter launch, many speculators tried to ride it out, expecting demand to increase. When that didn't happen, they started dumping inventory which had an exponential effect as dropping prices made players want to dump their inventory.

This is a shake down period. The market can't support as many speculators as it had, so this period will reduce them. There will a decline in activities that produce mats that have dropped in price. Eventually everything will settle down.

Who knows where prices will settle. It doesn't really matter because it's all relative. You may sell for less, but you can also buy for less. Guild traders will also adapt to the new market reality.

Exactly. Additionally, I can mention that remaining resellers, due to falling prices and longer selling times, are also buying less and with much greater discounts. Reselling is not a charity; they factor in the cost of their lot and the risks associated with the purchase into the price. Therefore, discounts should be more significant to attract attention. And because of the current downward trend in prices, if your product isn't sold within the first five days, it won't sell at all since it's simply overpriced.

Not exactly. It's been mentioned several times in various threads that some items of higher value take longer to sell simply because players may take a while to get the gold for it, or they may shop around for a while before deciding to spend a lot of gold. So if these items don't sell in 14 days, they're not necessarily overpriced.

Also, the change from 30 to 14 days expiry time makes these higher value items more expensive to sell, because the sellers may have to pay the listing fee more than once, cutting into the profit margin. If the sellers set a price low enough for the item to sell in 14 days, then they still lose, because the lower selling price cuts into the profit margin also.

LaintalAy

edited

manukartofanu

vsrs_au wrote: »

Not exactly. It's been mentioned several times in various threads that some items of higher value take longer to sell simply because players may take a while to get the gold for it, or they may shop around for a while before deciding to spend a lot of gold. So if these items don't sell in 14 days, they're not necessarily overpriced.

This was relevant to the economy before the chapter release. Now, there are so few items that are not depreciating in value that they can be neglected, at least for forum discussions. Owners of truly rare items, which are obtained with great difficulty and specific farming methods, are already aware of the price situation without us.

DenverRalphy

LPapirius wrote: »

I'm a relatively new player in two "casual" guilds with vendors. Both guilds are saying they don't think they're going to make more than another week or two and hold their vendor. The guilds won't shut down, but they won't have a vendor any longer, which means that most of the players in the guild will look for a guild that does have a vendor.

That's pretty much always been par for the course for a majority of Casual guilds. Nothing new there.

DenverRalphy

I keep skimming through this thread every now and then, and I gotta say... I'm not seein it.

The guilds I'm in are doin just as well as they always have. The Trade Guild I'm in is goin on strong, as are the others I'm aware of. I know a lot of players who are actually finding themselves working a bit harder to keep their slots filled with inventory.

IMHO, the market hasn't fallen. It's just shifted. You just gotta shift with it and sell the right product.

<shrug> Yeah, it's anecdotal, but still... I'm not seein it.

rothan117

I do not believe the 14 day limit has anything to do with the broad decline in prices. I am finding that if mats I have listed have not sold in 3 days, they are not going to sell because the average sale price has dropped below my price and I am now overpriced. I just pull them at that point and list something else. If you are waiting the full 14 days with the way prices are dropping, you are wasting that slot that could be selling something in the meantime. Prices keep spiraling down as people keep undercutting to try and move their excess stock. Guilds will have to start adjusting their bids as their total income drops too low to sustain their high bids for prime locations.

DenverRalphy

rothan117 wrote: »

I do not believe the 14 day limit has anything to do with the broad decline in prices. I am finding that if mats I have listed have not sold in 3 days, they are not going to sell because the average sale price has dropped below my price and I am now overpriced. I just pull them at that point and list something else. If you are waiting the full 14 days with the way prices are dropping, you are wasting that slot that could be selling something in the meantime. Prices keep spiraling down as people keep undercutting to try and move their excess stock. Guilds will have to start adjusting their bids as their total income drops too low to sustain their high bids for prime locations.

If the mats you havve listed don't sell within 3 days, it's because you're trying to sell a product in a saturated market that is consistently overstocked and everybody's undercutting each other. If all you have are mats to sell, sometimes ya just gotta let it ride and wait for the weekend traffic to roll in and clear out the stock.

MidniteOwl1913

BretonMage wrote: »

manukartofanu wrote: »

Arrodisia wrote: »

Gamers will gravitate to games which are fun to play, receiving lots of love from their dev team. They rarely gravitate towards nor remain in a game, which is delivering less and less playable content and is plagued with bugs and/or bad performance.

It is the most underestimated reason of the fall of the market and overall player activity.

While that's not exactly false, it doesn't really explain why prices dropped almost suddenly after U42. I'm 90% convinced it is due to the item listing period being slashed.

Yes at least for me things that would have sold just weren't there when the right person came looking. My sales are off by half. I may have to drop one of my guilds as I'm not making enough to pay the dues.

MidniteOwl1913

sarahthes wrote: »

I'm curious - how are sales on console? PC EU? Because the bulk of issues I'm hearing about are on PC NA which was grossly over inflated.

Mine are off my about half.

PSNA

Ph1p

Funny how when prices fall, people talk about oversaturated supply and low demand. But when they’re high, it’s because of an evil cabal of guild traders that artificially inflate prices. Maybe they and all the flippers are on summer vacation?

Zulera301

Skill issue.

MMO player-based economies function remarkably similar to how real world economies, where supply and demand rule the roost. the prices of gold mats went through the roof after ZOS cracked down on all the bot farmers. now everyone is farming mats again for ink and such and so supplies of "unwanted" mats are saturating the market and demand is therefore lowering. Same concept as when/why Anniversary Jubilee makes the prices of all those rare dungeon motifs tank. the supply is suddenly saturated, and until that supply is all bought up, it will stay that way.

If you just wanna make sales for the sake of sales, sell low, and if the items are perpetually hot (like craft mats) they *will* sell. If you want to make a profit, say, off of recipes and crafting motifs from Anniversary Jubilee, you'll have to wait another 3-6 months, to say nothing about the fact that the Zenithar event added a lot more free items into the mix.

it's a bit of a shame that we need 3rd party addons to show things like listing prices and sale histories but that's not a problem of this current economy. this is just a slower time. Like the real world economy, you need to learn what's hot and what's not. What sells well, and find that equilibrium between "profitable" and "will actually sell within a reasonable time". It's that simple.

Adaarye

Currently, it's a race to the bottom.

It's sad to see. The eoncomy is tanking, for sure.

I'm seeing gold/crown sale spam in chat also. Regularly. People are trying to cash in I suppose.

Without being able to sell the purple and gold recipes that I earned by doing master writs that I bought I can't decorate my houses the way I want to. I use the money I make on guild traders to buy recipes to do the one thing in ESO that I am still passionate about. Housing. I own a lot of houses.

I hope the sales bounce back, but I don't see that happening. I'm suffering from loss of interest in the game and I'm playing something else instead. Hopefully, just like in the past, I'll be interested again. Right now I'm meh about ESO. I log in, get rewards, check the mail to gather the recipes that did'nt sell a third time. I've cut the prices on these recipes (Mostly Alinor and Necrom and Telvanni) three times. I'm not doing it again.



Edited due to spelling error

Adaarye

MidniteOwl1913 wrote: »

BretonMage wrote: »

manukartofanu wrote: »

Arrodisia wrote: »

Gamers will gravitate to games which are fun to play, receiving lots of love from their dev team. They rarely gravitate towards nor remain in a game, which is delivering less and less playable content and is plagued with bugs and/or bad performance.

It is the most underestimated reason of the fall of the market and overall player activity.

While that's not exactly false, it doesn't really explain why prices dropped almost suddenly after U42. I'm 90% convinced it is due to the item listing period being slashed.

Yes at least for me things that would have sold just weren't there when the right person came looking. My sales are off by half. I may have to drop one of my guilds as I'm not making enough to pay the dues.

I'll be leaving one of my trading guilds as well. I can pay the dues but the precious little gold I have will go to buy recipes from Gold Road.