Tracking Daily Writ Reward Drop Rates & Refining Rates

tmbrinks

So, I was beginning to track the rewards that were dropping for me from doing my writs daily. I do writs on 27 characters a day (36 of them now!!), so I felt like I would have enough data to over ride any "noise" that was in the data from random RNG. I was initially tracking it on a spreadsheet, when I began to talk to a friend who writes add-ons, at the possibility of creating an add-on to track the drops of each. This led me to be searching the ESOUI add-ons, and come to find out, that Dolgubon's Lazy Writ Crafter (BEST ADD-ON EVER FOR DOING WRITS!!!! Love you @Dolgubon ) has been tracking this information for me for a while now. I just had to parse it out of the output that it gives me in chat. So I took the data and plugged it into Google Sheets to come up with some data about the drop rates of the major rewards from doing crafting writs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/

*Spreadsheet has data about the returns from several crafting professions
1. Refining - Drop rates of Gold, Purple, Blue, and Green improvement materials, along with prices to purchase raw materials at to "break even"
2. Writ Rewards - Summary of the percentages of drops for "big" drops from doing daily writs. Data is aggregate across all characters, some of whom have limited motif knowledge, some that were learning traits while data was collected
3. Requirement/Writ Profits - FOR MAX LEVEL WRITS ONLY - Rotation of writ requests, materials needed, as well as profit analysis based on my own recorded drop rates
4. Master Merchant - Prices of the relevant items needed either to do writs, or writ rewards, to evaluate profits/costs. Updated every few weeks or so when I remember.
5. Remainder of the tabs are just where I record my individual information that the other tabs pull from.

A couple of notes about the data:

* Alt account does not have access to Summerset, so there is no Jewelry Crafting data for it (Gained access with release of Elsweyr, so is leveling JC line)
* Jewelry drops were changed after the release of Summerset, to only include Chromium Grains (they initially included Terne, Iridium, and Zircon), so the drop rate is artificially low for Jewelry Chromium Grains
* This data stretches back approximately a year, pre-Summerset release, my main account was therefore leveling up Jewelry Crafting through the data collection, as well as researching traits in Jewelry, this will bring down the drop rates for Jewelry crafting.
* For a majority of the data collection, Jewelry Writs were done at 8 a day at level 5 (Platinum), and 7 a day at level 1 (Pewter), this will also bring down the Chromium grain collection (but not surveys, it appears)
* All crafters know the 9 basic racial styles, all 4 base game purple, as well as Hollowjack and Skinchanger motifs.
* 15 crafters are full 9-trait, 15 are full 8-trait, the last 6 are learning traits.
* All crafters know all traits for Alchemy (with the exception of Clam Gall and Powdered Mother of Pearl and Dragon Bile and Blood on some), and all stones for Enchanting translated (a few are missing Hakeijo)
* For provisioning, crafters are only learning the purple recipes that drop from doing provisioning writs as I accumulate them. They also all know the Psijic Ambrosia gold recipe, since I have gotten thousands of fragments for that as well. This is why the drop rate of provisioning is so low, since only 1 character knows all the purple/gold recipes. I have started doing Tier 2/3/4/5 provisioning writs to gain access to drops of other purple recipes, which will slowly be learned by characters.

*The alt account was created during this time frame, so all the leveling of the skill lines, as well as the trait research and motif learning was all done while they were doing writs, which is probably why the drop rates on the alt account are slightly lower than those on the main account. Other than surveys which seems to be pretty consistent across both accounts.

I'm just sharing this here so that people who are looking for information about drop rates have a place to find this. I'll plan on periodically updating the spreadsheet every couple of weeks as I collect more data from doing writs.

*It appears that surveys have an approximately 1/8 chance of dropping while doing a writ. This is consistent at all levels of writs.
*It appears that the drop rate for a gold improvement material is a little under 30% (will have to check more on Chromium, but the recent tracking seems to support a similar drop rate)
*Alchemy/Enchanting master writs drop the more commonly, probably due to the ease of getting the drop rate highest (at about 1/7, or 14%)
*Without most motifs, the drop rate for Blacksmithing/Woodworking/Clothing master writs appears to be around 1/15 or 6% (but going up to about 1/10, or 10% with some basic motif knowledge)

EDIT: ADDED on 3/9/19

Added another tab to the document to try and determine profit from doing writs on a daily basis. It looks like writs on a single character will net approximately a 467k profit per month.

By necessity, some things needed to be estimated while creating it.

I used MM numbers from PC/NA (I'm in 3 trade guilds in 3 different locations, all with more than 50 million a week in sales guild wide)

I used values calculated from the drop rate of the writs that I've been tracking.

Master writs were valued based on a voucher sell price of 650g/voucher.

UPDATED: 7/24/19

EDIT 8/11/19

With Scalebreaker's release on PC tomorrow 8/12, data has updated with the last of the writs that will be done for this patch.

*notes

1) Master writ drop rate seemed to go up, I believe this is due to the sheer number of motifs some of my characters learned during the anniversary event.

2) Provisioning rates were low. 6 new characters who knew virtually no recipes probably bought this down some.

3) Chromium rates are still artificially low for the overall (alt account only has 4 characters doing max level writs) it's at nearly 25% for the main account.

4) Survey rates might be off because of bugs early in Elsweyr.

5) Individual rates for accounts can be seen on other tabs at the end, just didn't want to clutter the initial pages.

Edit 2/13/23
Things included in the spreadsheet linked:
1. Advice & Suggestions for doing daily writs, refining materials, leveling alts, add-ons. What affects drop rates of gold materials, surveys, and master writs.
2. A color-coded sheet showing survey reset paths (what I've found to be the shortest, but if you find a shorter one, please share!)
3. Results of refining millions of materials both pre- and post- Meticulous Disassembly being added to the game... yes, it most definitely increases your improvement materials received when refining
4. Detailed results of drops from daily writs with nearly a quarter million writs done total across all 7 crafts! Special jewelry rewards tracking for the 4 grain types you get from those!
5. Writ Rewards and Writ Profits calculated out for both max level writs and level 1 writs (hint 1: do your writs at max level!)
6. Individual refining results for the 4 crafts both pre- and post- Meticulous Disassembly (as well as even pre-Multicraft). (hint 2: refine all at once, save yourself time)
7. Per patch results of drops from daily writs to check for any major changes (there aren't really many)
8. Prices included from the average of the 3 trading guilds I'm in on PC/NA so the value of all the rewards can be continuously updated.

Jayne_Doe

Thanks for sharing! Interesting and helpful info!

SpAEkus

So I took the data

Any chance you can describe the basics of what/how you pulled it out of the, I presume Saved Variables?

I have been doing 8 characters for a while as well and would like to see the same results for my dutiful crafters.

tmbrinks

SpAEkus wrote: »

So I took the data

Any chance you can describe the basics of what/how you pulled it out of the, I presume Saved Variables?

I have been doing 8 characters for a while as well and would like to see the same results for my dutiful crafters.

If you have Dolgubon's Lazy Writ Crafter. Typing /outputwritstats into your chat window will give a list of all writ rewards you have received.

SpAEkus

Excellent Thanks

tmbrinks

Looking towards the future. I think I will plan to 'reset' the data with each new patch, so we can look at the data for future patches to determine if there is any changes in the drop rates going forward. Thus, I'll collect the data again after doing writs on Sunday, since Wraithstone drops on Monday, and reset the data, and collect it through the new DLC.

FlopsyPrince

tmbrinks wrote: »

If you have Dolgubon's Lazy Writ Crafter. Typing /outputwritstats into your chat window will give a list of all writ rewards you have received.

I REALLY want that on the PS4!

SpAEkus

Got a reply from Dolgubon when asking if it could output to text or SavedVariables. I haven't asked him yet to elaborate on what any inaccuracies are, FYI.

Re: /outputwritstats any way to get that to a savedvariable vs the chat?

First, a warning. The stats gathered through that are not fully accurate. Second, pChat should allow you to copy all of that, and it's an addon that I highly suggest. Third, all of that is already in the settings! That's how it persists :P (And fyi no way for addons to write to text files)

tmbrinks

SpAEkus wrote: »

Got a reply from Dolgubon when asking if it could output to text or SavedVariables. I haven't asked him yet to elaborate on what any inaccuracies are, FYI.

Re: /outputwritstats any way to get that to a savedvariable vs the chat?

First, a warning. The stats gathered through that are not fully accurate. Second, pChat should allow you to copy all of that, and it's an addon that I highly suggest. Third, all of that is already in the settings! That's how it persists :P (And fyi no way for addons to write to text files)

I saw his reply about that in another thread where they were talking about the output.

Another person who does a lot of crafting, Inklings, hand tracked all of his rewards from doing them and said that they matched up very, very closely with what Dolgubon's add-on tracked as well.

I believe he was only tracking the "major" rewards from the crafting, much like I am, and those were accurate. I think (or am hoping) that any inaccuracies are in the lower level rewards that are given

So, based on that, I'm fairly confident in the data that is reported.

Edit: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/5448265#Comment_5448265 to add thread where it was discussed

Dolgubon

Iirc the inaccuracies were mainly in the number of writs completed, and/or the items were sometimes reported in the wrong section.

Additionally, sometimes auto loot doesn't work properly and a container is opened twice, so stuff is counted twice - but this should be reasonably rare and can be mitigated by not moving around much or doing anything after completing writs until all containers are opened

tmbrinks

I'm sure there are inaccuracies in it, however, I'd have to believe that they are fairly minor in scope. There would probably be similar inaccuracies if I were to keep track of them by hand and record them myself. That would also take significantly more time to do so. I'm willing to give up the little bit of accuracy in the data for the efficiency and readiness of the data that is collected.

I appreciate all you've done for the writ community @Dolgubon Without your add-on, it would be significantly more difficult to do writs on a daily basis! Thank you for the time and effort that you've put into writing it!

Alinhbo_Tyaka

Great table. Thanks for putting it together.

You did confirm anecdotal evidence that there is a significantly lower drop rate for Chromium than the Gold materials for other crafts. I am a bit surprised by the Master Writ drops as I definitely get more Jewelry Master Writs than the other crafts. I only have one character so it might be related to a smaller data set and RNG conspiring to skew my results. I'm curious to see how the numbers run over time and across patches so will keep an eye on this thread.

tmbrinks

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Great table. Thanks for putting it together.

You did confirm anecdotal evidence that there is a significantly lower drop rate for Chromium than the Gold materials for other crafts. I am a bit surprised by the Master Writ drops as I definitely get more Jewelry Master Writs than the other crafts. I only have one character so it might be related to a smaller data set and RNG conspiring to skew my results. I'm curious to see how the numbers run over time and across patches so will keep an eye on this thread.

For much of the data collection for the Jewelry crafting writs, I was doing 8 JC writs a day at max level, and 7 JC writs a day at level 1 (due to them not being fully leveled yet). It is known that the gold improvement material drop rate is affected by the level at which you do writs. With the start of Wrathstone, all 15 characters are at maximum level, and doing max level Jewelry crafting writs, so we will be able to directly compare drop rates to accurately determine if there is a significantly lower drop rate for Chromium grains versus the other gold improvement materials. The same argument would be evidence for the lower drop rates of JC master writs in this data, since they cannot drop from non-max level crafting writs.

In the two weeks I was tracking the drop rates by hand (before I discovered that Dolgubon's LWC was doing it for me), it appeared that Rosin/Alloy/Wax was at about a 30% drop rate, and Chromium was at 25%, and they were all doing max level writs for all of them by that time.

I will continue to track so we can see for sure though!

tmbrinks

I have added the results from my first week of doing writs since Wrathstone released, to track what's happened so far.

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!!!

But, it appears that the drop rates haven't changed too much.

Ramber

I do writs on 8 toons as well. So knowing motif pages helps the output of them? where is this written? and other then leveling all the disciplines what else matters to make it better? thanks!

SpAEkus

Ramber wrote: »

I do writs on 8 toons as well. So knowing motif pages helps the output of them? where is this written? and other then leveling all the disciplines what else matters to make it better? thanks!

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3656134/#Comment_3656134

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3700900/#Comment_3700900

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3811984/#Comment_3811984

SpAEkus

I have 8 CP160+ characters doing L1 Writs. I'm doing this to see results but also to see what extra I get if I drop to L1 writs for the Jubilee boxes like I did last time.

Going to do 30 Days. No loot passives. Going to add passives after 30 days.

Then I will try to up Mat passives to see if there is any set break point for better rewards at passive level.

Looks like the L1 have set rewards, almost exact, except for the 50/50 Item levels and whether it is Intricate or Ornate. Mats are set 5/20 hard and 2x5 2x10 Prov and JC 4Pounce and 1 Cop Dust. Prob old news to many.

But I did get (as far as I can tell it wasn't a mail, saving those for after writs each day) 2 Frost and 3 Bervez on one writ with only Connoisseur passive (didnt want to pay respec for one passive).

And also got one solid Cobalt trait from a JC today. Rest have been Pulverized. No tempers so far.

tmbrinks

Ramber wrote: »

I do writs on 8 toons as well. So knowing motif pages helps the output of them? where is this written? and other then leveling all the disciplines what else matters to make it better? thanks!

The only thing that the knowledge of those changes is the drop rate of master writs. It does not increase the size of the master writs, simply the chance of getting one. The size that you get is randomly selected after the game decides you're getting one as a drop.

The drop rate of surveys appears to be completely independent of the level at which you do your crafting.

The drop rate of gold improvement mats does go up with crafting level however.

Tatanko

tmbrinks wrote: »

The drop rate of gold improvement mats does go up with crafting level however.

Does this seem to be affected by things like trait knowledge in any way? I keep wondering if I should bother with jewelry research on my 3 crafting-only characters.

tmbrinks

Tatanko wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The drop rate of gold improvement mats does go up with crafting level however.

Does this seem to be affected by things like trait knowledge in any way? I keep wondering if I should bother with jewelry research on my 3 crafting-only characters.

I do not believe so. I think, for Jewelry, that trait research only affects the rate at which master writs drop.

tmbrinks

Added another tab to the document to try and determine profit from doing writs on a daily basis. It looks like writs on a single character will net approximately a 400k profit per month.

By necessity, some things needed to be estimated while creating it.

I used MM numbers from PC/NA (I'm in 3 trade guilds in 3 different locations, all with more than 50 million a week in sales guild wide)

I used values calculated from the drop rate of the writs that I've been tracking.

Master writs were valued based on a voucher sell price of 650g/voucher.

I also used values calculated on refining rates that were computed here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit?usp=sharing

Feric51

tmbrinks wrote: »

Added another tab to the document to try and determine profit from doing writs on a daily basis. It looks like writs on a single character will net approximately a 400k profit per month.

By necessity, some things needed to be estimated while creating it.

I used MM numbers from PC/NA (I'm in 3 trade guilds in 3 different locations, all with more than 50 million a week in sales guild wide)

I used values calculated from the drop rate of the writs that I've been tracking.

Master writs were valued based on a voucher sell price of 650g/voucher.

I also used values calculated on refining rates that were computed here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit?usp=sharing

Is that 400k/month based on max-tier writs using max-tier materials, or level 1 writs? The raw material "overhead" is substantially different between the two and would eat into the profit margin quite a bit I would think.

Ex. - Ancestor silk retail price = 14,000g/stack = 70g/ea - Max-tier clothing writ requiring 39 ancestor silk = base cost of 2,730g before rewards; compared to level 1 writ using jute with a guaranteed net gain of materials + rewards.

Just curious. I currently run 3 characters at max tier and 7 characters at level 1 each day. All surveys go to my main crafter for harvest/refining of max-tier mats. Only my main has any semblance of research/motif knowledge, so master writ return is functionally 0 on my two max-tier alts, but they do enjoy the increased odds of gold temper rewards. Just wondering if I should respec them back to level 1 crafting passives?

Thanks!

tmbrinks

Feric51 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Added another tab to the document to try and determine profit from doing writs on a daily basis. It looks like writs on a single character will net approximately a 400k profit per month.

By necessity, some things needed to be estimated while creating it.

I used MM numbers from PC/NA (I'm in 3 trade guilds in 3 different locations, all with more than 50 million a week in sales guild wide)

I used values calculated from the drop rate of the writs that I've been tracking.

Master writs were valued based on a voucher sell price of 650g/voucher.

I also used values calculated on refining rates that were computed here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit?usp=sharing

Is that 400k/month based on max-tier writs using max-tier materials, or level 1 writs? The raw material "overhead" is substantially different between the two and would eat into the profit margin quite a bit I would think.

Ex. - Ancestor silk retail price = 14,000g/stack = 70g/ea - Max-tier clothing writ requiring 39 ancestor silk = base cost of 2,730g before rewards; compared to level 1 writ using jute with a guaranteed net gain of materials + rewards.

Just curious. I currently run 3 characters at max tier and 7 characters at level 1 each day. All surveys go to my main crafter for harvest/refining of max-tier mats. Only my main has any semblance of research/motif knowledge, so master writ return is functionally 0 on my two max-tier alts, but they do enjoy the increased odds of gold temper rewards. Just wondering if I should respec them back to level 1 crafting passives?

Thanks!

Mine was all at max level writs, and assuming drop rates of other materials based on data I've collected. There were some approximations. Granted, prices are cheaper on PC/NA. The drop rate that I get for master writs only appears to be slightly smaller on my characters that don't have significant motif knowledge. I have learned the base game purple, as well as 2 or 3 other cheap motifs on each character

AONomad

Hey there, this is amazing data, thanks so much for compiling it! I was looking for addons to track my own drop rates, since in the past I'd tried to find stats like these unsuccessfully, but luckily I thought to google a bit again and found yours! As far as I'm aware no one has tracked this comprehensively before.

The only question I have in looking through your data is as to how you came up with the values you assigned your survey rewards. I may be misunderstanding slightly or maybe missing something, because it seems to me like you're undervaluing surveys?

I see some disparity in the formulas you used for that, but correct me if there's an element of your method that I've overlooked. For ex., the formula for clothing, =Z52*108*26.22, does that mean you only tracked the price of refined mats, and didn't account for the gold mats from the raw refined mats? Did you subsume the gold mat drops from refining into the cost of crafting the master writs, maybe?

Also for alchemy and enchanting, your formulas imply that alchemy surveys are worth 1000 gold each, and kutas drop approximately 50% of the time from enchanting surveys. Did you track your results to come to that data? Or did you estimate or use someone else's data for those?

Sorry for the somewhat arcane questions lol. I have 16 characters at the moment so my monthly income is probably a little over 6 million based on your averages, and I'm trying to decide whether I should max out at 18 or not bother with it. I'll probably do it eventually but I really don't want to go skysharding anymore... and the new skyshard upgrades are pretty pricey from the crown store.

Aurie

tmbrinks wrote: »

I appreciate all you've done for the writ community @Dolgubon Without your add-on, it would be significantly more difficult to do writs on a daily basis! Thank you for the time and effort that you've put into writing it!

This

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Hey there, this is amazing data, thanks so much for compiling it! I was looking for addons to track my own drop rates, since in the past I'd tried to find stats like these unsuccessfully, but luckily I thought to google a bit again and found yours! As far as I'm aware no one has tracked this comprehensively before.

The only question I have in looking through your data is as to how you came up with the values you assigned your survey rewards. I may be misunderstanding slightly or maybe missing something, because it seems to me like you're undervaluing surveys?

I see some disparity in the formulas you used for that, but correct me if there's an element of your method that I've overlooked. For ex., the formula for clothing, =Z52*108*26.22, does that mean you only tracked the price of refined mats, and didn't account for the gold mats from the raw refined mats? Did you subsume the gold mat drops from refining into the cost of crafting the master writs, maybe?

Also for alchemy and enchanting, your formulas imply that alchemy surveys are worth 1000 gold each, and kutas drop approximately 50% of the time from enchanting surveys. Did you track your results to come to that data? Or did you estimate or use someone else's data for those?

Sorry for the somewhat arcane questions lol. I have 16 characters at the moment so my monthly income is probably a little over 6 million based on your averages, and I'm trying to decide whether I should max out at 18 or not bother with it. I'll probably do it eventually but I really don't want to go skysharding anymore... and the new skyshard upgrades are pretty pricey from the crown store.

Wow! I appreciate you looking at it. I'm pretty sure I was using the "refined" total that is on other tabs, but I just picked the number, instead of having it adjust dynamically as I added more refines and updated the MM prices. I've updated those to be the "price" that calculated on the Totals tab, which is the value of the refined materials + the value of the materials in their refined form (at a 85% refine rate), but I was forgetting the return of actual crafting materials from that.

The "value" of the master writs takes into account the cost to craft. I assume a cost of 50g/voucher for the Alchemy/Enchanting/Provisioning (Not doing any that use Hakeijo or Perfect Roe), a cost of 350g/voucher for WW/Cloth/BS, and a value of zero for JC master writs.

As far as the Alchemy and Enchanting, those are mostly just from anecdotal evidence from collecting them. I have not tracked specifically the drops from them, but yes, I was making the assumption that I would get a Kuta from about every third survey on average, and the value of the other drops (Oko, Rekuta, etc.. that have some value) would be approximately the other 1/6th to make it the value of a half Kuta.

As far as alchemy, you can "cheese" alchemy surveys by running away and resetting them to get more valuable flowers. 1k gold might be well under value to be honest for those, since 1 corn flower will give you more than that (at PC/NA) prices. I bumped it up to 1,500g/survey, which is still probably an underestimate, but at least closer.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit

This is the one that is active right now. I had 2 separate sheets I was using. I haven't been updating one of them. Dolgubon's addon is still tracking, so I can get the drop rates for the materials, but they've been consistent for a long time now. Just want to make sure that you're looking at the correct one that I'm still updating.

Thank you for catching those things. I had been working on it to make the spreadsheet more dynamic, so that it will adjust as I plug in values onto the Master Merchant Prices tab, and having everything updated. Many of those that you saw were from before I had done that and hadn't set it up to do so. I have updated it to accommodate that now!

Hope you enjoy the data analysis as much as I do, and please don't hesitate to ask if you see anything else that "seems off" or that you don't understand my methodology, as I'd be more than happy to explain!

AONomad

Okay cool! Thanks so much for getting back to me so quickly with a very detailed reply.

I looked through the new spreadsheet and most of my questions are answered now between your response and the new formulas and structure.

Only two nitpicks:
1. I think your surveys are still undervalued by 10% since I don't think they account for Plentiful Harvest from the Lover cp tree? I see your formulas for ww/bs/cloth list 120 as the mats per node-- you seem way better at math than I am so correct me if I'm wrong, but if you wanted to account for PH: it has a 10% chance to proc, so among 6 nodes that means 60% chance to proc per survey, and if it procs it yields an additional 20 mats, so should be 20*.6=12 ---> 132 mats per survey assuming consistent 10% PH procs, yeah?
2. Alchemy is still undervalued even at 1500. I haven't done surveys since January but if I recall correctly, the alch ones would be 6 nodes of 4-6 mats each? And sometimes I seem to recall getting 8 or 12, don't remember what causes that though? So worst case scenario would be 6 nodes of 4 wormwood (lol), which if I recall is around 40 gold, = 960 gold. Just going by memory so I might be wrong on a few of these, plus prices may have changed since January: possible drops include wormwood (40?), columbine (180?), dragonthorn (40?), lady's smock (120?), columbine (220?), mountain flower (40?), bugloss (80?)-- so approximate average of 100g per flower. Plugging that back into our bad RNG scenario of only 4 flowers per node and no PH procs or whatever causes double alchemy, 6*4*100=2400 gold per survey.

Neither of those will dramatically alter your conclusions, but hey every little bit counts! (Especially with 36 chars, lol!)

Let me know if I made any mistakes or if I overlooked parts of your spreadsheet where you accounted for any of that.

AONomad

"don't remember what causes that though?" Oh wait, PH applies to alchemy as well, ha... I was thinking maybe it was something from the alchemy skill tree. I'm dumb.

So I'll let you update the alchemy formula to account for PH if you want to, because again, math is not my thing lol (and I need to get back to studying for my exam).

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Okay cool! Thanks so much for getting back to me so quickly with a very detailed reply.

I looked through the new spreadsheet and most of my questions are answered now between your response and the new formulas and structure.

Only two nitpicks:
1. I think your surveys are still undervalued by 10% since I don't think they account for Plentiful Harvest from the Lover cp tree? I see your formulas for ww/bs/cloth list 120 as the mats per node-- you seem way better at math than I am so correct me if I'm wrong, but if you wanted to account for PH: it has a 10% chance to proc, so among 6 nodes that means 60% chance to proc per survey, and if it procs it yields an additional 20 mats, so should be 20*.6=12 ---> 132 mats per survey assuming consistent 10% PH procs, yeah?
2. Alchemy is still undervalued even at 1500. I haven't done surveys since January but if I recall correctly, the alch ones would be 6 nodes of 4-6 mats each? And sometimes I seem to recall getting 8 or 12, don't remember what causes that though? So worst case scenario would be 6 nodes of 4 wormwood (lol), which if I recall is around 40 gold, = 960 gold. Just going by memory so I might be wrong on a few of these, plus prices may have changed since January: possible drops include wormwood (40?), columbine (180?), dragonthorn (40?), lady's smock (120?), columbine (220?), mountain flower (40?), bugloss (80?)-- so approximate average of 100g per flower. Plugging that back into our bad RNG scenario of only 4 flowers per node and no PH procs or whatever causes double alchemy, 6*4*100=2400 gold per survey.

Neither of those will dramatically alter your conclusions, but hey every little bit counts! (Especially with 36 chars, lol!)

Let me know if I made any mistakes or if I overlooked parts of your spreadsheet where you accounted for any of that.

For the ww/bs/cloth, worst case scenario is 18 per node (all are 18 or 20, other than the leather, which are higher), which PH can "double" to 36, 38 or 40. Taking worst case 18 x 6 = 108 + 18 * 0.6 (for PH) = 118.6, which is how I got the 120.

And technically, you have a 53% chance of getting no PH proc, a 35% chance of getting 1, a 9% chance of getting 2, and a 1% chance of getting 3+ in a single node (.35*18 + .09*36 +.01*54 = 10 additional mats on average, given a drop of 18), so I'm comfortable with that number, and rounding up because you can get some of the extras.

I like doing worst case scenario, that way I know the minimum I'm going to get, and any thing I get above that is just a bonus.

AONomad

Oh okay great, sorry for misinterpreting in that case! Looks like you're way ahead of me haha.

"and a 1% chance of getting 3+ in a single node"
Ugh the dream.

AONomad

Hey again! Just noticed profit per character per month says 569k now on your spreadsheet-- what made that go up from 400k in your original post? I think even last time we chatted a few weeks ago it was still around 380-420k if memory serves. Did you update values for something?

This is good news haha.