Tracking Daily Writ Reward Drop Rates & Refining Rates

tmbrinks

Spreadsheet has been updated for the last time for Harrowstorm. Will reset and continue to track with Greymoor launching tomorrow!!!

NavalOffisah

tmbrinks wrote: »

Spreadsheet has been updated for the last time for Harrowstorm. Will reset and continue to track with Greymoor launching tomorrow!!!

Your efforts are appreciated! It's honestly great information, and I know I have browsed through all the data pretty extensively. Excellent work!

tmbrinks

With today being the last day of the Greymoor patch, and Stonethorn launching tomorrow on PC. Last data has been entered and will restart tracking tomorrow.

No real significant changes or anything unexpected happening this patch, outside of perhaps a small bump in Chromium Grain drops that I'll keep an eye on.

Nestor

@friimynd

Top tier gear writs produce Master Writs and a better chance of Gold Tempers
Different levels of Provisioning Writs produce different levels of Recipes, which still sell
Alchemy is something i run either at Tier 4 so I need less expensive Reagents or Top Tier to get Master Writs

Hotdog_23

Thanks for the undated info.

Automation is such a beautiful thing. Wish I could just do 18 characters in 90 minutes on console much less 36. Takes me twice that amount of time if I do them. It takes 148 lots to just pre-craft for 6 days not counting food or alchemy. So, pre-crafting does not work for me. Hoping the new console will have help with loading screens greatly to help level the playing field some between pc’s ease of use with add-ons and console slo-mo.

Be safe and have fun

Asardes

At the last tier there are only 3 foods and 3 drinks for provisioning and 4 potions and 4 poisons for alchemy, which is a total of 14 slots because they stack 100 and 200/1000 respectively. That's one of the reasons I have standardized at maximum tier.

friimynd

Asardes wrote: »

At the last tier there are only 3 foods and 3 drinks for provisioning and 4 potions and 4 poisons for alchemy, which is a total of 14 slots because they stack 100 and 200/1000 respectively. That's one of the reasons I have standardized at maximum tier.

you can keep the ingredients in the bank and save space on each alt character; even if you have the subscriber craft storage it still makes more sense to free up the space on the characters, just craft daily instead; takes like 5 seconds with the addons
or are you trying to save those 5 seconds?

i can see no other reason; that must be it, to save 5 seconds you craft 100 items in advance
i suppose then you don't need the bank storage
what about enchanting? same difference

i suppose it is worth the extra effort to save those 5 seconds (or more) later on; i'll give it a try

i prefer to not sub because it leaves me free to not play and not feel as though i am wasting money if i don't play
it is a psychological ploy, these games are really very deep into psychological triggers for playing more and spending money
it's a whole industry, a profession, though i do not know the title one would have for the job, psychological trigger engineer, lol

i'd say the crafting thing is a huge joke and waste of time; it gives people a sense of accomplishment; i kind of like that you can unlock colors by completing crafting achievements; nice colors; i feel superior showing them off to others who do not have them, lol
anyway
...
basically bottom line just max tier, set it and forget it

Asardes

friimynd wrote: »

Asardes wrote: »

At the last tier there are only 3 foods and 3 drinks for provisioning and 4 potions and 4 poisons for alchemy, which is a total of 14 slots because they stack 100 and 200/1000 respectively. That's one of the reasons I have standardized at maximum tier.

you can keep the ingredients in the bank and save space on each alt character; even if you have the subscriber craft storage it still makes more sense to free up the space on the characters, just craft daily instead; takes like 5 seconds with the addons
or are you trying to save those 5 seconds?

i can see no other reason; that must be it, to save 5 seconds you craft 100 items in advance
i suppose then you don't need the bank storage
what about enchanting? same difference

i suppose it is worth the extra effort to save those 5 seconds (or more) later on; i'll give it a try

i prefer to not sub because it leaves me free to not play and not feel as though i am wasting money if i don't play
it is a psychological ploy, these games are really very deep into psychological triggers for playing more and spending money
it's a whole industry, a profession, though i do not know the title one would have for the job, psychological trigger engineer, lol

i'd say the crafting thing is a huge joke and waste of time; it gives people a sense of accomplishment; i kind of like that you can unlock colors by completing crafting achievements; nice colors; i feel superior showing them off to others who do not have them, lol
anyway
...
basically bottom line just max tier, set it and forget it

Well the reason I do it is that I don't invest in multiplication passives on alts, especially for provisioning. I just craft 100-200 in bulk on my main and the addon takes from bank. It saves on ingredients since instead of 1 portion I make 4 when I craft.

friimynd

oh so you don't have to use the item you crafted with a specific character, just any of YOUR characters?
that is much better, as i was seeing each character having to carry around a bunch of crafted stuff

tmbrinks

friimynd wrote: »

oh so you don't have to use the item you crafted with a specific character, just any of YOUR characters?
that is much better, as i was seeing each character having to carry around a bunch of crafted stuff

Only for Alchemy and Provisioning does that work (since items crafted by different characters can stack.

For enchanting, and the equipment crafts, the character who has the writ has to be the one to craft.

tmbrinks

With today being the last day of the Stonethorn DLC on PC. Final tabulation of the data has been done for this patch.

With almost 15,000 more writs done this update, there's no discernable changes in drop rates across both accounts.

Using prices from trade guilds on PC/NA, the approximate value of the writs done this patch was about 50 million gold (with only 10 million of that being from the quest gold)

Survey drop rate is between 12.2%-13.5%, so near the expected 12.5% drop rate

Gold improvement materials are between 28.8%-31.8%, so near the expected 30% drop rate from top-tier writs

Master Writs are more varied, but they're ~15% for ones that are easy to max out (Alchemy, Enchanting, Jewelry) since they take research. And there is a clear increase (from about 9% to about 12%) between two accounts, one of which has significantly more motif knowledge (and is 9-trait in everything, instead of 8-trait).

Will continue to track with Markarth, but results have been consistent for multiple patches, once the sample size is large enough to work through the noise of randomness.

DO YOUR WRITS! (and do them at maximum level for maximum value!)

Taleof2Cities

Thanks again for the data share, @tmbrinks!

Always good to know the measured drop rates.

Hotdog_23

Thanks for taking time to do and share this information!

tmbrinks

With the Flames of Ambition DLC on 3/8/2021 and the introduction of the new "Meticulous Disassembly" passive in the CP tree, it is expected that the drop rates due to refining materials will change. To prepare for this, I will be putting the new refining results into new tabs on the spreadsheet starting with the launch of the DLC. This means that the "pricing" that has been included with the refining summary may be incorrect for a while as we wait for a large enough sample to cancel out the noise of randomness.

New refines will not be added to the existing refining summary tab (but the prices will adjust as MM prices adjust), this could be used by somebody who does not have the passive and is at 3/3 or somebody with the passive at 2/3 in the crafts (but I would not recommend that, as you'd be losing improvement materials)

In testing on the PTS (with only jewelry materials, since that the only one you can get "unlimited" amounts of on there), Meticulous Disassembly absolutely increased the drop rates from refining, most likely giving an approximate 12.5% boost to drop rates when combined with being 3/3 in the appropriate passive for the craft. These results are shared on the spreadsheet under the Meticulous Disassembly Testing Tab.

The final Writ Rewards for the Markarth DLC have not been put in yet, those will be added on Sunday afternoon after I finish my writs for the day, but there are no discernable changes to any of the drop rates from this patch either. I have started personally tracking drops (on a custom add-on) on a per-character basis to try and get a better idea of how much motif knowledge and others might affect drop rates across different characters. However, because this is now splitting my data into 36 smaller bins, it is subject to significantly more variation, and I'm not comfortable with drawing any conclusions on it at this time (even though I've been tracking for nearly a year at this point)

Spreadsheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI

SgtWinnie

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

tmbrinks

SgtWinnie wrote: »

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

Meticulous Disassembly - sizable increase in the amount of upgrade materials you get

Plentiful Harvest - going from a 10% chance to get a double node to a 50% chance.

Those are the two biggest ones. So, some significant improvements for crafters with this CP!

SgtWinnie

tmbrinks wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

Meticulous Disassembly - sizable increase in the amount of upgrade materials you get

Plentiful Harvest - going from a 10% chance to get a double node to a 50% chance.

Those are the two biggest ones. So, some significant improvements for crafters with this CP!

LOL Now I'm really looking forward to this change.
This will make a huge impact to my income especially across 14 accounts. Thank you for your reply TM.

Shanrocks1

SgtWinnie wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

Meticulous Disassembly - sizable increase in the amount of upgrade materials you get

Plentiful Harvest - going from a 10% chance to get a double node to a 50% chance.

Those are the two biggest ones. So, some significant improvements for crafters with this CP!

LOL Now I'm really looking forward to this change.
This will make a huge impact to my income especially across 14 accounts. Thank you for your reply TM.

14 accounts?!?!?!? Bruh.

SgtWinnie

What can I say....I love crafting lol.

Feric51

Shanrocks1 wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

Meticulous Disassembly - sizable increase in the amount of upgrade materials you get

Plentiful Harvest - going from a 10% chance to get a double node to a 50% chance.

Those are the two biggest ones. So, some significant improvements for crafters with this CP!

LOL Now I'm really looking forward to this change.
This will make a huge impact to my income especially across 14 accounts. Thank you for your reply TM.

14 accounts?!?!?!? Bruh.

14 accounts?

or

14 characters?

tmbrinks

First update of refining added in with Meticulous Disassembly slotted. Very small sample size, so don't draw any unwarranted conclusions from the data. But at a very rough guess, it is working, as improvement material drops (other than 1) were above the "old" expected refining rate.

GreenHere

tmbrinks wrote: »

First update of refining added in with Meticulous Disassembly slotted. Very small sample size, so don't draw any unwarranted conclusions from the data. But at a very rough guess, it is working, as add drops (other than 1) were above the "old" expected refining rate.

Thanks for your continued insights on this! I was hoping we'd hear from you shortly after the patch dropped. ;P

Seriously, thanks a lot!

Gelmir

All survey nodes respawn by running away and coming back. Not only alchemy.

Gelmir

@AONomad profits are higher due to CP 2.0.

wolfie1.0.

Feric51 wrote: »

Shanrocks1 wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

SgtWinnie wrote: »

As always Thank you TM for doing all this.
I'm certainly interested in any benefits [if any] that will occur from this CP 2.0 across all my crafting accounts.

Meticulous Disassembly - sizable increase in the amount of upgrade materials you get

Plentiful Harvest - going from a 10% chance to get a double node to a 50% chance.

Those are the two biggest ones. So, some significant improvements for crafters with this CP!

LOL Now I'm really looking forward to this change.
This will make a huge impact to my income especially across 14 accounts. Thank you for your reply TM.

14 accounts?!?!?!? Bruh.

14 accounts?

or

14 characters?

they probably meant what they said and have 14 accounts. I have 25 myself (long story)

WiseSky

Aedra called they need you back doing the Divines work.

Many thanks you the MVP of crafting.

tmbrinks

Data and analysis for refining rates have been adjusted to show PER REFINE rates now, due to some confusion about the data.

All analysis has been updated to reflect these changes.

No change in expectations.

Meticulous Disassembly increasing the drop rate by 12.5% is still my best guess. This means you take the drop rate of 5% for gold mats and multiply by 1.125 ( 100% + 12.5% ) to get the new drop rate (of 5.625%)

I can with nearly 100% confidence reject that the old drop rate is in effect (and that my higher results are the result of "luck")

There is close to enough data is be fairly confident that the change to drop rates is between 10% and 15%

Will continue to add more data in and analyze as we go. But I've collected all my "big" (10+) stacks of surveys since the launch on Monday, so it'll be a bit slower.

deleted221106-002999

tmbrinks wrote: »

Data and analysis for refining rates have been adjusted to show PER REFINE rates now, due to some confusion about the data.

All analysis has been updated to reflect these changes.

No change in expectations.

Meticulous Disassembly increasing the drop rate by 12.5% is still my best guess. This means you take the drop rate of 5% for gold mats and multiply by 1.125 ( 100% + 12.5% ) to get the new drop rate (of 5.625%)

I can with nearly 100% confidence reject that the old drop rate is in effect (and that my higher results are the result of "luck")

There is close to enough data is be fairly confident that the change to drop rates is between 10% and 15%

Will continue to add more data in and analyze as we go. But I've collected all my "big" (10+) stacks of surveys since the launch on Monday, so it'll be a bit slower.

Thanks for taking the time to set this up, analyse the data and report your insightful findings - appreciated!

SgtWinnie

14 accounts?

or

14 characters?

47 accts total. [ What started as a guild bank want got out of hand when my family got involved ]
14 x ACCTS with 18 crafters per acct. All but my last one are level 50 in all crafts. They range from 300-1350cp except for my main. It's taken years to get here but I had help from some truly beautiful people along the way. And yes I'm able to play a lot more than other's, I can thank a drunk driver for that.

I wanted to also jump onboard with others and say Thank you TM .
Data over theory is always appreciated.
Keep up the great work!

tmbrinks

With the end of the Waking Flame patch on PC (and having completed my writs for the last time this patch), the results from writs this patch are shown below. Note that sample sizes are smaller than average, I've been taking a break from doing them everyday (and not even using the alt account at all), while I play some other games. So while there appears to be more variance in drop rates, that is due to the smaller sample sizes. None of the drops are statistically significant for us to suspect there is any change in drop rates of surveys, gold mats, etc. If you have other data that contradicts this, I always love to see it.

Waking Flame data in the spreadsheet


Drops from in-game tracking in Lazy Writ Crafter (since I was accused of "faking" my numbers by somebody via DM from another thread)


Open and transparent data is what we need to determine if things change, thus I'm sharing it openly

Link to spreadsheet and any updates is in my signature as always.

Happy writting! May the RNG always be in your favor!