Is this where I post Undaunted Key rants?

krachall

Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
Domi 4 /4 / 3
Earth 3 / 4 / 5
Warden 3 / 3 / 6
Chudan 4 /5 / 4
Kena 6 / 3 / 3
Veli 4 / 0 / 2

I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

There...I feel better.

newtinmpls

Shhhh....the RNG gods are now SURE of what you are looking for.

krachall

newtinmpls wrote: »

Shhhh....the RNG gods are now SURE of what you are looking for.

Well it's not like they can make it worse! I guess they could reach down and pluck my heavy divine velidreth shoulders from me!

Saint314Louis1985

i am searching for divines veli shoulders, i dont even care what weight. I pretty much exclusively get warden or dominhaus.

i have gotten 3 veli, 2 medium crap traits and 1 heavy crap trait. this is over the span of atleast 50-60 keys, probably more.

one time i dumped 6 keys in a row and got 6 warden shoulders. I was definitely.... mad you could say.

altemriel

krachall wrote: »

Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
Domi 4 /4 / 3
Earth 3 / 4 / 5
Warden 3 / 3 / 6
Chudan 4 /5 / 4
Kena 6 / 3 / 3
Veli 4 / 0 / 2

I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

There...I feel better.

RNGEEZUS demands you to do more offeringz, the bloody ones are preffered....

MasterLenman

Study mathematics, especially stochastic. I feel it helps with accepting randomness. If you don't have time to get a full degree, you could read The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Mlodinov instead.

You still won't have your shoulders, but maybe some peace of mind.

Everstorm

Sacrifice more kittens.

Enslaved

I just came here to say I adore the title of this thread

CGPsaint

My best thus far, was dropping 127 keys in an attempt to get Lord Warden Shoulders. NOT A SINGLE ONE. On the bright side, I have every Domihaus and Earthgore shoulder that I could ever want, in every weight and trait. Zenimax can suck it when it comes to those damn shoulders.

Mithoron

As soon as I turned CP160 I went to the chest....third key got a medium Veli with Divines....I sat there and stared at my inventory in shock as that type of luck has NEVER happened to me in a game...

Of course, have done several vCOS runs now for a helm and the old RNG gods are laughing at me once again....

The_Protagonist

This is an intended feature to annoy and rage Vet content players.

They know that you're determined and hooked and will continue to play because of all the frustration.

I got this in mail some time back:

code65536

Several months ago, I spent over 300 keys looking for Chudan heavy in sturdy. I got Chudan heavies in every trait but sturdy, and Chudan sturdies in every weight but heavy. I got multiple perfect shoulders of other sets (my very first shoulder after One Tamriel was divines medium Veli; I had gotten more divines medium Velis than I have stamina characters, so some were even deconned).

Sometimes it feels like the world's out to get you, but it's just luck.

At least keys are so much easier to get now after the One Tamriel changes.

Asardes

If you go 6M 1H you won't notice much of a difference in DPS. It's -1.5% critical chance, +2% stamina and +4% health.

Ilithyania

krachall wrote: »

Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
Domi 4 /4 / 3
Earth 3 / 4 / 5
Warden 3 / 3 / 6
Chudan 4 /5 / 4
Kena 6 / 3 / 3
Veli 4 / 0 / 2

I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

There...I feel better.

To bad we cant trade, got many Velidreth Med, no light Kena

rynth

yup this is where you post your crying on the general [snip] forum

RABIDxWOLVERINE

I quit doing undaunted pledges because the system sucks. I would much rather have to save my keys (or tokens or whatever) until I had 5-10 then use them to buy a set specific random crate, kinda how the vendors sell gear. Pick the set you want and open it to find a random shoulder of that set in random weight and trait. Until something new happens Ill stick with the crap I have I guess but the pledges are just a time sink with no return.

Feyziness

Over two years of trying to get Bloodspawn shoulders in any weight, any trait, and nothing. Not one. Yeah, it's terrible.

krachall

Asardes wrote: »

If you go 6M 1H you won't notice much of a difference in DPS. It's -1.5% critical chance, +2% stamina and +4% health.

Very true. That's kinda why I'm not really raging over this. Once I got the heavy divines a couple weeks ago, I stopped obsessing over pledges and just run them when my guild runs them.

I think I'll gold both the helm and shoulders. The helm is Invigorating but will be my first transmog'd item when that system comes out.

And it's nice to see...or sad to see...that I'm not alone in this.

As for statistics, yeah, I took stochastic methods in engineering school and lots of statistics in grad school. I think that makes it worse as these drop rates defy all statistical models except "it's not random."

code65536

krachall wrote: »

Asardes wrote: »

If you go 6M 1H you won't notice much of a difference in DPS. It's -1.5% critical chance, +2% stamina and +4% health.

Very true. That's kinda why I'm not really raging over this. Once I got the heavy divines a couple weeks ago, I stopped obsessing over pledges and just run them when my guild runs them.

I think I'll gold both the helm and shoulders. The helm is Invigorating but will be my first transmog'd item when that system comes out.

And it's nice to see...or sad to see...that I'm not alone in this.

As for statistics, yeah, I took stochastic methods in engineering school and lots of statistics in grad school. I think that makes it worse as these drop rates defy all statistical models except "it's not random."

Given the large size of the loot table, even 85 data points is pitifully small and woefully insufficient for drawing any meaningful conclusions. I've spent over 700 keys on Live since One Tamriel (and still have about 2300 unspent keys left) plus I've done key opening sprees on the PTS, all of which I logged using an addon, and I assure you that with a sufficiently large sample size, that the distribution is quite even. But just a hundred keys is simply too small of a sample and I would even expect to see uneven bumps.

eso_nya

Dropped 127 keys to get a heavy sentinel schoulder. Got it in sturdy. Wasnt sure to feel happy about desired trait or unhappy to blast so many keys for desired armortype.

Denyiir

krachall wrote: »

Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
Domi 4 /4 / 3
Earth 3 / 4 / 5
Warden 3 / 3 / 6
Chudan 4 /5 / 4
Kena 6 / 3 / 3
Veli 4 / 0 / 2

I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

There...I feel better.

I actually was after medium divines veli too, and saved 100+ keys before I started to open a chest today. On my 2nd attempt I got medium impen piece and on 3rd I got medium divines which I wanted. Sorry

SirAndy

When i was looking for my Velidreth medium shoulders many moons ago i got two in a row with the first two keys.
One heavy, one medium and the medium was in divines.

I don't think RNG has been that kind to me in a long time ...

Runschei

By making this thread you made the RNg gods angry

lailoken

Rng Protip: Desire strongly for something else, rage when what you want drops.

"Oh come on! A divine heavy shoulder!? I DON'T NEED THIS!"

I swear, the game can read our minds. "Oh you want this set with this trait? I'll give you the item with the wrong trait, because, lolz!"

Huyen

Flipping a coin should give 50% heads and 50% tails, no matter how much times you flip it. Tests have shown over and over again, that there is always a offset to one side. Either 40% / 60% or viceversa. Statistics mean nothing.

eso_nya

lailoken wrote: »

Rng Protip: Desire strongly for something else, rage when what you want drops.

"Oh come on! A divine heavy shoulder!? I DON'T NEED THIS!"

I swear, the game can read our minds. "Oh you want this set with this trait? I'll give you the item with the wrong trait, because, lolz!"

I tried this out "pls pls pls give me training"...i got training xD

lailoken

eso_nya wrote: »

lailoken wrote: »

Rng Protip: Desire strongly for something else, rage when what you want drops.

"Oh come on! A divine heavy shoulder!? I DON'T NEED THIS!"

I swear, the game can read our minds. "Oh you want this set with this trait? I'll give you the item with the wrong trait, because, lolz!"

I tried this out "pls pls pls give me training"...i got training xD

You weren't 100% sincere in your desire for training..

Fischblut

I never actually craved for specific Monster set with specific trait. Except... Sturdy Bloodspawn pauldron for my tank after I started doing dungeons I got only 1 Bloodspawn pauldron during last year (more than a year to be precise, cause I spent lot of keys before One Tamriel adden more sets to the loot table) - it was infused. Soon before awful update 14 I simply stopped caring and just hoarded keys for no reason, sometimes opening chests just to see what I get. I wish we could bank keys so they wouldn't take inventory space on few characters...

Runefang

I'm over 200 keys down, no med Troll King shoulders.

I keep trying every day.

acw37162

Really, you should buy a crown crate because with that spread and the fact you don’t give two *** about it you will prob pull a frog senche in three crates.

Bbsample197

its quite funny that i did this earlier for 20 keys, half of it are all lord wardens, was looking for a kena and i only got one that is well-fitted, tho my first attempt was a divine heavy veli, sigh i wish trading monster set was a thing lol