The following calculations are for the purpose of comparing the Effective Spell Power of several Magicka armor sets in the Horns of the Reach update. This is not an exhaustive list, nor are the parameters cosidered the only ones relevant to how well a particular build performs.
Our primary concern is to quantify the cumulative benefit of the following bonuses on their respective sets: Max Magicka, Spell Damage, Crit Chance, Spell Penetration, and Additional Crit Damage. I will be using the UESP Effective Spell Power formula for these calculations, with all other variables removed. Crit % is determined by dividing the amount of crit by 219 (i.e. 1066 / 219 = 4.86 ~ 4.9).
The graphs below show how much more powerful each set is over a baseline with no set bonuses. Original calculations are at the bottom. The first graph is generated from adding all the values of the graphs Comparison A-G together, a sort of TLDR version.
UPDATE: Since the initial posting of this thread, Comparison G was added and included in the Cumulative Comparison, which switched the order of the bottom two sets, kicking Necropotence into last place.
Individual Set Assessment:
1st Place - SPINNER'S
- Even with the 5th piece bonus being nerfed, this set is very strong assuming you are not already hitting the penetration cap. The nerf to Sharpened will make Spinner's an even more desirable set for making up the difference, and is one of the most efficient magicka damage sets for boosting Effective Spell Damage. This could potentially free up CP for use on other stars.
- Be mindful, however, that while the 2-4 piece bonuses will be universally beneficial, the 5th piece bonus will not have any effect on shields.
2nd Place - NETCH'S TOUCH
- The assumption here is that we are fully specced into lightning damage. If your parses show less than 75% total damage coming from lightning, you would be better off with Julianos. With 100% lightning damage, this set is very strong.
UPDATE:
Scathing Mage with an 80% uptime looks to be around here, almost as strong as fully specced Netch's Touch assuming you have the crit chance high enough to get 80% uptime. 60% would be equivalent to Julianos (naked).
3rd Place - JULIANOS (completing 5-1-1)
- One of the main benefits of Julianos is that, as a crafted set, it can come in Light, Medium, or Heavy. This allows us to craft pieces to complete a 5-1-1 setup, gaining an extra 2% more magicka over a 6-1 setup with 2 5-piece light armor sets.
UPDATE:
Silks of the Sun looks to be about here, assuming 100% fire damage.
4th Place - BURNING SPELL WEAVE
- The assumption here is that we have a 60% proc uptime. Below 57% would put the 5th piece bonus at the same level as Julianos' 5th piece. One thing that is not taken into account here is the additional Burning procs, which would boost Wall of Flame damage by 20%. BSW has the potential to be tied with Julianos for 3rd place, given the right conditions (66% uptime).
5th Place - JULIANOS (naked)
- Taking Julianos at face value, as if it were part of a 6-1 setup, without the extra 2% from the Undaunted passive, it still does well. It is worth noting that Julianos will be less optimized if running it as the only 5-piece set with 2 monster pieces as opposed to part or a double 5-piece set arrangement.
6th Place - MOTHER'S SORROW
- Although buffed significantly in HotR to 21% Crit, this set still falls short when examined in isolation. It does best in situations where you can boost Crit Damage high and generally get your other stats high as well. It essentially amplifies the base damage you do, becoming more powerful the stronger your other stats are. As we will see in the buffed set combinations graph, it moves to a BiS position given high enough stats in other areas.
7th Place - NECROPOTENCE
- Significantly hurt by the nerf to its 5th piece bonus, Necro is at the bottom of the pack. It still offers the most magicka compared to other sets, which will directly boost shields, pets, and provide more resources for casting, but it also requires an active pet and scales poorly with weapon attacks. It's difficult to quantify exactly how these factors should effect this set's position in Effective Spell Power ranking, being largely subjective how much each factor would be "worth" in a comparison like this.
I also compared what Necropotence would look like without any nerf. It would have come in 4th, edging out Burning Spell Weave. Personally, I think that would be the appropriate spot for it, and I would encourage the dev team to either fully revert the nerf or at least lessen it, perhaps to 3450, which is what Spinner's was nerfed to from 4000. @ZOS_GinaBruno
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In the graph below, 5000 points are removed from each calculated result to better highlight the differences between each.
Comparing Set Combinations with LOW stats:
Ranked from best to worst combinations:
Spinner/Netch
Spinner/Julianos
Spinner/BSW
Julianos/Netch
Spinner/Necro
Spinner/Mother
Netch/Necro
Julianos/BSW
Netch/Mother
Julianos/Necro
BSW/Necro
Julianos/Mother
BSW/Mother
Necro/Mother
These rankings line up closely with the individual rankings, which makes sense since in most calculation 4/5 of the variables were LOW stats, with only one being buffed to measure it's effect. Again, we see Necropotence and Mother's Sorrow near the bottom of the pack.
Now let's looks at these same set combinations when we buff all five of the calculated stats:
In the graph below, 10000 points are removed from each calculated result to better highlight the differences between each.
Comparing Set Combinations with HIGH stats:
Ranked from best to worst combinations:
Spinner/Mother
Spinner/Julianos
Spinner/Netch
BSW/Mother
Julianos/Mother
Netch/Mother
Julianos/Netch
Spinner/BSW
Julianos/BSW
Spinner/Necro
Necro/Mother
Julianos/Necro
Netch/Necro
BSW/Necro
Here, we see Spinner's remain the top choice, while Mother's Sorrow comes catapulting to the front of the pack. Because these calculations were made with fully buffed stat figures, there is so much more raw power for Mother's Sorrow to amplify. We can also see that, Necropotence fairs the worst by a wide margin.
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The remaining graphs are simply a visual representation of the comparisons of each set's bonuses to a baseline. They don't really show much more new data, although it is interesting to see how some sets benefit more or less from certain stats being buffed.
UPDATE: A new chart, Comparison G has been added showing single set comparisons that are FULLY buffed.
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And here we have the actual calculations that were used. Again, these values were plugged in to the UESP Build Editor "Effective Spell Power" Calculator, with the result given at the bottom of each.
1. Baseline A (all low values)
30k Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
46622. Baseline B (buffed Magicka +10k)
40k Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
55783. Baseline C (buffed SD +100)
30k Magicka, 3k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
56224. Baseline D (buffed Crit +20%)
30k Magicka, 2k SD, 60% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
50515. Baseline E (buffed Pen +10%)
30k Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
52456. Baseline F (buffed Crit Dmg +20%)
30k Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
49746. Baseline G (FULLY buffed)
40k Magicka, 3k SD, 60% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
8703
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A Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
36438 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5251 (589 over base)B Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
46438 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6166 (588 over base)C Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
36438 Magicka, 3k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6211 (589 over base)D Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
36438 Magicka, 2k SD, 60% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5689 (638 over base)E Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
36438 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5908 (663 over base)F Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
36438 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5602 (628 over base)G Necropotence (1096 x 3) + 3150 = 6438 Magicka
46438 Magicka, 3k SD, 60% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9487 (784 over base)
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The following are calculations for Necropotence if it did not receive a nerf, but preserved its 4000 Magicka 5-piece bonus.
A Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
37288 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5329 (667 over base)B Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
47288 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6244 (666 over base)C Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
37288 Magicka, 3k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6289 (667 over base)D Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
37288 Magicka, 2k SD, 60% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5773 (722 over base)E Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
37288 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5995 (750 over base)F Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
37288 Magicka, 2k SD, 40% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5684 (710 over base)G Necropotence (no nerf) 7288 Magicka
47288 Magicka, 3k SD, 60% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9590 (887 over base)
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A Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5254 (592 over base)B Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
41096 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6206 (628 over base)C Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31096 Magicka, 3299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6254 (632 over base)D Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2299 SD, 69.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5675 (624 over base)E Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5911 (666 over base)F Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5254 (592 over base)G Julianos 1096 Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
41096 Magicka, 3299 SD, 69.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9659 (956 over base)
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The following calculations add 2% Magicka to Julianos, since this is an added benefit of a Crafted set combined with a 5-light set and 1-piece monster piece to get 5-1-1.
A Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31717 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5314 (652 over base)B Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
41917 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6283 (705 over base)C Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31717 Magicka, 3299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6313 (691 over base)D Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31717 Magicka, 2299 SD, 69.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5739 (688 over base)E Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31717 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5978 (733 over base)F Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
31717 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5737 (763 over base)G Julianos 1096 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
41917 Magicka, 3299 SD, 69.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9763 (1060 over base)
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A Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2000 SD, 61% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5180 (518 over base)B Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
41096 Magicka, 2000 SD, 61% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6174 (596 over base)C Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
31096 Magicka, 3000 SD, 61% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6224 (602 over base)D Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2000 SD, 81% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5578 (527 over base)A Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2000 SD, 61% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5828 (583 over base)F Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2000 SD, 61% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5665 (691 over base)G Mother's Sorrow 1096 Magicka, 21% Crit
41096 Magicka, 3000 SD, 81% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9751 (1048 over base)
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A Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
32192 Magicka, 2129 SD, 40% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5417 (755 over base)B Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
42192 Magicka, 2129 SD, 40% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6410 (832 over base)C Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
32192 Magicka, 3129 SD, 40% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6460 (838 over base)D Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
32192 Magicka, 2129 SD, 60% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5869 (818 over base)E Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
32192 Magicka, 2129 SD, 40% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6041 (796 over base)F Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
32192 Magicka, 2129 SD, 40% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5779 (805 over base)G Spinner's 2192 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
42192 Magicka, 3129 SD, 60% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9834 (1131 over base)
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The following calculations assume 60% uptime. 66% uptime would give 31 more SD (2475). 57% uptime would remove 16 SD (2428). Uptimes lower than 57% are worse than the flat 299 SD from Julianos.
A Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5294 (587 over base)B Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
41096 Magicka, 2444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6226 (648 over base)C Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 3444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6273 (651 over base)D Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2444 SD, 64.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5726 (675 over base)E Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5955 (710 over base)F Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5681 (707 over base)G Burning Spell Weave 1096 Magicka, (525 x 0.6) + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
41096 Magicka, 3444 SD, 64.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9626 (923 over base)
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The following calculations assume 100% of skills used are Lightning-based damage. 90% would subtract 40 SD (2489). Every -5% = -20 SD. 75% would subtract 100 SD (2429), making it's 5th bonus essentially equal to Julianos.
A Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5377 (715 over base)B Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
41096 Magicka, 2529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6309 (731 over base)C Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 3529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6356 (734 over base)D Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2529 SD, 64.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5816 (765 over base)E Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6049 (804 over base)F Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
31096 Magicka, 2529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
5770 (796 over base)G Netch's Touch 1096 Magicka, 400 + 129 SD, 4.8% Crit
41096 Magicka, 3529 SD, 64.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
9737 (1034 over base)
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SET COMBINATIONS (Low Stats):
Spinner/Netch 3288 Magicka, 658 SD, 4.8% Crit, 6.9% Pen
33288 Magicka, 2658 SD, 44.8% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6199Spinner/Julianos 3288 + 2% Magicka, 428 SD, 9.7% Crit, 6.9% Pen
33953 Magicka, 2428 SD, 49.7% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6143Spinner/BSW 3288 Magicka, 573 SD, 4.8% Crit, 6.9% Pen
33288 Magicka, 2573 SD, 44.8% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6108Spinner/Necro 8630 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
38630 Magicka, 2129 SD, 40% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6057Spinner/Mother 3288 Magicka, 129 SD, 21% Crit, 6.9% Pen
33288 Magicka, 2129 SD, 61% Crit, 86.9% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6009Julianos/Netch 2192 + 2% Magicka, 828 SD, 14.4% Crit
32835 Magicka, 2828 SD, 54.4% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
6060Julianos/BSW 2192 + 2% Magicka, 743 SD, 14.4% Crit
32835 Magicka, 2743 SD, 54.4% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5974Julianos/Necro 7534 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
38284 Magicka, 2299 SD, 49.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5938Julianos/Mother 2192 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 30.7% Crit
32835 Magicka, 2299 SD, 70.7% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5875Netch/Necro 7534 Magicka, 529 SD, 4.8% Crit
37534 Magicka, 2529 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5977Netch/Mother 2192 Magicka, 529 SD, 25.8% Crit
32192 Magicka, 2529 SD, 65.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5949BSW/Necro 7534 Magicka, 444 SD, 4.8% Crit
37534 Magicka, 2444 SD, 44.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5894BSW/Mother 2192 Magicka, 444 SD, 25.8% Crit
32192 Magicka, 2444 SD, 65.8% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5858Necro/Mother 7534 Magicka, 21% Crit
37534 Magicka, 2000 SD, 61% Crit, 80% Pen, 50% Crit Dmg
5820
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SET COMBINATIONS (Fully Buffed):
Fully Buffed: Spinner/Netch 3288 Magicka, 658 SD, 4.8% Crit, 6.9% Pen
43288 Magicka, 3658 SD, 64.8% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10959Fully Buffed: Spinner/Julianos 3288 + 2% Magicka, 428 SD, 9.7% Crit, 6.9% Pen
44153 Magicka, 3428 SD, 69.7% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
11005Fully Buffed: Spinner/BSW 3288 Magicka, 573 SD, 4.8% Crit, 6.9% Pen
43288 Magicka, 3573 SD, 64.8% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10840Fully Buffed: Spinner/Necro 8630 Magicka, 129 SD, 6.9% Pen
48630 Magicka, 3129 SD, 60% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10677Fully Buffed: Spinner/Mother 3288 Magicka, 129 SD, 21% Crit, 6.9% Pen
43288 Magicka, 3129 SD, 81% Crit, 96.9% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
11012Fully Buffed: Julianos/Netch 2192 + 2% Magicka, 828 SD, 14.4% Crit
43035 Magicka, 3828 SD, 74.4% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10850Fully Buffed: Julianos/BSW 2192 + 2% Magicka, 743 SD, 14.4% Crit
43035 Magicka, 3743 SD, 74.4% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10733Fully Buffed: Julianos/Necro 7534 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 9.7% Crit
48484 Magicka, 3299 SD, 69.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10602Fully Buffed: Julianos/Mother 2192 + 2% Magicka, 299 SD, 30.7% Crit
43035 Magicka, 3299 SD, 90.7% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10886Fully Buffed: Netch/Necro 7534 Magicka, 529 SD, 4.8% Crit
47534 Magicka, 3529 SD, 64.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10539Fully Buffed: Netch/Mother 2192 Magicka, 529 SD, 25.8% Crit
42192 Magicka, 3529 SD, 85.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10872Fully Buffed: BSW/Necro 7534 Magicka, 444 SD, 4.8% Crit
47534 Magicka, 3444 SD, 64.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10428Fully Buffed: BSW/Mother 2192 Magicka, 444 SD, 25.8% Crit
42192 Magicka, 3444 SD, 85.8% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10887Fully Buffed: Necro/Mother 7534 Magicka, 21% Crit
47534 Magicka, 3000 SD, 81% Crit, 90% Pen, 70% Crit Dmg
10616
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Thanks for reading!
Also, please see my follow-up thread:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/365915/necropotence-examination-more-math-pre-hotr#latest