A Sad Truth

Eshelmen

This Author is a complete idiot.

Google Analytics only shows one piece of the pie. And doing a quick analysis of the game, based on the search for "ESO" shows only a portion of the actual truth.
Now, if you were to track any and all related words, terms, websites about ESO, not just the word ESO, then I can guarantee you'll have a much more robust graph.

Nobody is searching this game, because we're already on it! Lol

I've never gone more than 10 minutes in game with out seeing another player. Another joke in the authors words. Maybe PC is dying? Unsure, but on PS4 it is alive and very well.

LvDPrankWars

I cant even be *** to read all that but it is far from dead

Rohamad_Ali

Elder Scrolls Facebook page Likes is 0.1%

2,052,699Total Page Likes
0.1%from last week

Someone update Google Trends .

kargen27

This thread reminds me of a failed presidential bid we had this last election. One of the candidates released his plan for immigration reform and stated 84% of America agreed with his plan. He even provided the data of the poll to prove his point. What he didn't include was the question asked.

The question was should the current immigration policies be reformed. Sure enough 84% said they should. Later in the survey though you could see reform meant anything from open borders for everybody to shoot them as they approach and everything in between. The survey never once mentioned the candidates plan. He simply used the survey knowing the vast majority would never actually go look at what was being asked.

Same thing is happening here. The OP has an agenda and has found something unrelated to try and support it. I am not arguing that the numbers are wrong or invented. I am saying they are unrelated to the state of the game. My opinion remains that the spikes are a result of trailers and other advertising being released. Without knowing the demographics of those the graph represents there is no way of correlating the results to the game. There is also nothing to support my opinion but in my defense my opinion takes into account players and non players where the OP is assuming players only. No way all those searches were by people currently playing the game at the time they searched ESO or Elder Scrolls Online.

GDOFWR420

Still ordering the physical c.e. as I love the game and will continue to support it as I hope to see it around for years to come. I think they need fresh minds at zos.

Elsonso

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

My intent is to hopefully convince ZOS to find new ways to get more people playing.

Noble cause, but ZOS and Bethesda have access to a whole lot more accurate numbers than what you are going to be getting from Google Trends. They also have people who are paid to watch this sort of stuff. They are either all over this already, and a long time ago, or there isn't anything to get all over because the Google data is not painting an accurate picture.

Personally, I think the Google data is easily misleading and misinterpreted.

Minno wrote: »

That's what makes google/steam charts widely used; impartial numbers based on search requests/players playing (via steam).

But, less accurate than anything that ZOS and Bethesda have. Seriously. This isn't even up for debate.

RinaldoGandolphi

Rohamad_Ali wrote: »

The only sad truth is this thread is badly titled . I've laughed more here then any other thread .

@Rohamad_Ali

Here is the thing, (That i was afraid of when i started this thread)

All the counter arguments here are based soley on peoples personal biases.

they equate "their experience in-game" as gospel and fact.

Because they "see" Stormhaven with a bunch of people that means the games health is fine...despite outside sources such as Google Trends showing interest in the game took a huge Noise dive in June of 2015 (Imperial City release) and the games interest has never come close to rebounding back since. The lowest it ever got was December 2014, but the dive after IC put it like 5% above that and it has hover in the 5-7% margin of that since with small little highs and lows in between.

The BIG issue with the ESO community(Well any MMO community really) is bias....folks take their own personal biases as fact, and will ignore, ridicule, and outright dismiss anything that doesn't line up with what they experience "in-game". This is a very dangerous, untenable, outright irrational position to hold.

The majority of those arguing against these trends have their basis seated in irrationality. Many people have developed a "love for the game" or have close ties to it, even I am guilty of this. I used to stay up at night and play this game while my Dad was sleeping due to too much pain meds while he was dying of cancer. So i myself do have my own personal love of this game for many of my own reasons.I myself have to be careful not to let my own personal love for ESO and my personal biases to cloud my judgement.

When I log into the game, the game world appears to have people in it. I would assume the game was ok going by soley that alone, but Google Trends is that "neutral outside source" that isn't biased.

Its hard to put aside your personal biases. Biases are based on personal feelings, and human feelings are literally the most irrational things on the planet. Human beings in their very nature can be irrational at times...its why were human, it makes life interesting.

PVP is the best example, we all have zerg goggles....when 10 people zerged us down it feels like a whole raid sometimes...our own biases initially think its 20 people, but its really only 7-10....this is the best example of how in-game biases does not equal reality.

Things that are popular and successful are searched on Google a lot, things that are not, are not. Google Shows ESO taking two very large nose dives, one in 2014 (After the Lighting Patch), and another in June of 2015 (After IC) the games pop, speaking of PC-NA, has never really recovered from those two drops....

I don't have console, so maybe the population there is better due to how much more mainstream console is, but even then, trends show interest down.

As much as I love ESO, heck this game helped me deal with losing my dad, Even i can put aside my own personal biases and look at outside data from an objective point of view....trying to base decisions on personal experiences in-game is intellectually dishonest....This would be like someone trying to refute smoking causes cancer because that person has smoked for 35 years and never gotten cancer...its intellectually dishonest, its an untenable position...yet on these forums, in-game experiences based on irrationality and personal bias seem to be taken like gospel and folks just pile on popular opinion.

Folks that say the game is doing good have ZERO verifiable proof of those claims other then their own personal experiences in game which is rooted in bias and has no basis facts....yet statistics put up from an independent source and read according to Googles own guidelines are ripped apart by the very same arguments rooted in those biases.

Its almost an affront to free thought....if def clear that trying to simply state what the data says will always be met with resistance here, simply because so many have some sort of personal attachment to the game, that they will never get past their biases and evaluate things objectively....and that's really a shame. Real progress can be made with open minds, but i can't force peoples minds open....folks have to want to learn for themselves....

Malamar1229

Bro if a game like Age of Conan is still alive and kicking...I'm pretty sure ESO will still be here...

RinaldoGandolphi

Eshelmen wrote: »

This Author is a complete idiot.

Google Analytics only shows one piece of the pie. And doing a quick analysis of the game, based on the search for "ESO" shows only a portion of the actual truth.
Now, if you were to track any and all related words, terms, websites about ESO, not just the word ESO, then I can guarantee you'll have a much more robust graph.

Nobody is searching this game, because we're already on it! Lol

I've never gone more than 10 minutes in game with out seeing another player. Another joke in the authors words. Maybe PC is dying? Unsure, but on PS4 it is alive and very well.

Yup, because resulting to personal attacks is totally the way to free thought....

just keep proving the point, you don't even know your doing it...

RinaldoGandolphi

Malamar1229 wrote: »

Bro if a game like Age of Conan is still alive and kicking...I'm pretty sure ESO will still be here...

I never said ESO was dead though

I just said the trends show it dying....dying is something that laways happens over a long period of time, not a short one.

i'll play till they shut it off.

However, we should always strive for more, try to get more people, try to be more successful...we shoudl never just settle for status quo right?

Malamar1229

well for one....give us a recruit a friend program....

Sanctum74

We can argue data, graphs, and trends all day, but I think to some extent the op is correct. It doesnt mean the game is over, but there is definately much less activity then there was.

The towns were packed with people at all hours and there were more campaigns available with decent populations. Now there is less campaigns and there mostly emtpy except for one. Just left elden root at mid day and there is no one in the dueling area and only 4 people at the pledge area. Yikes!

Many long term players have left the game and the new ones just dont seem to stay as long. I cant blame them with cp getting out of control, new players just dont stand a chance and the new changes will make it harder for them.

Its unfortunate because I wish the new players could see how great the game used to be when it was filled with people and felt alive. Now theres a fraction of the people, but the lag is 10x worse as proven by my attached google graph...jk xD

Hopefully they can turn things around and bring more life into it with Morrowind, but all of the game changes being introduced and the eso+/morrowind dlc scam oops i mean "chapter" has really turned people off.

I'm still here and trying to enjoy the game, but pvp lag has become unbearable on ps4 and gets worse with each patch. Hows it going to perform when the warden is released with trees sprouting up in combat? Got a feeling its gonna get much worse.

So for the time being I'll do my writs and play my nightly pvp, but thats it. I'm not gonna preorder or continue my eso+ anymore and I'm gonna wait on morrowind reviews to see if the game will even be playable. I just have a feeling all of the warden animations are gonna break pvp in terms of lag, but i guess when you get cc'd 3 times in a row using immovability pots it already is broke. Miss the old days when basic game mechanics still worked

Cadbury

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

Malamar1229 wrote: »

Bro if a game like Age of Conan is still alive and kicking...I'm pretty sure ESO will still be here...

I never said ESO was dead though

I just said the trends show it dying....dying is something that laways happens over a long period of time, not a short one.

i'll play till they shut it off.

However, we should always strive for more, try to get more people, try to be more successful...we shoudl never just settle for status quo right?

Every game starts "dying" from the moment of conception. Just sayin'

Rouven

Rohamad_Ali wrote: »

Elder Scrolls Facebook page Likes is 0.1%

2,052,699Total Page Likes
0.1%from last week

Someone update Google Trends .

How many pokes?

RinaldoGandolphi

Malamar1229 wrote: »

well for one....give us a recruit a friend program....

Now that is a GREAT IDEA!

RinaldoGandolphi

Sanctum74 wrote: »

We can argue data, graphs, and trends all day, but I think to some extent the op is correct. It doesnt mean the game is over, but there is definately much less activity then there was.

The towns were packed with people at all hours and there were more campaigns available with decent populations. Now there is less campaigns and there mostly emtpy except for one. Just left elden root at mid day and there is no one in the dueling area and only 4 people at the pledge area. Yikes!

Many long term players have left the game and the new ones just dont seem to stay as long. I cant blame them with cp getting out of control, new players just dont stand a chance and the new changes will make it harder for them.

Its unfortunate because I wish the new players could see how great the game used to be when it was filled with people and felt alive. Now theres a fraction of the people, but the lag is 10x worse as proven by my attached google graph...jk xD

Hopefully they can turn things around and bring more life into it with Morrowind, but all of the game changes being introduced and the eso+/morrowind dlc scam oops i mean "chapter" has really turned people off.

I'm still here and trying to enjoy the game, but pvp lag has become unbearable on ps4 and gets worse with each patch. Hows it going to perform when the warden is released with trees sprouting up in combat? Got a feeling its gonna get much worse.

So for the time being I'll do my writs and play my nightly pvp, but thats it. I'm not gonna preorder or continue my eso+ anymore and I'm gonna wait on morrowind reviews to see if the game will even be playable. I just have a feeling all of the warden animations are gonna break pvp in terms of lag, but i guess when you get cc'd 3 times in a row using immovability pots it already is broke. Miss the old days when basic game mechanics still worked

Now this is a good, well written, and very well thought out response.

I don't have to be right or wrong, the fact that you evlauated the data with an open mind and drew your conclusions from that data is what i was looking for.

At the end of the day, we need to help ZOS come up with new ideas to get more people to try the game.

Malamar "refer a friend" idea is exactly the kinda stuff we should be looking for. ESO has a lot to offer despite some of the venom on the forums about the sustain changes, being unhappy with the Morrowind not being part of ESO Plus, etc....there is still a good game here to play, and its up to us to figure out some way to hopefully help ZOS get more people to try and hopefully stay playing it....we want to see these trends go up....we work together we can make it happen.

THEDKEXPERIENCE

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

THEDKEXPERIENCE wrote: »

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

If you actually go to https://trends.google.com

Type in ESO, eso, The Elder Scrolls Online, etc

If you actually "However your mouse arrow" on the Blue line it will show you the date. The Date at the bottom is only a legend, the far end of the chart goes as far as May 7th of 2017 which is current.

I am not manipulating any data, and I know how to read the charts.

The Trends show:

1. A BIG spike from March 30-April 4 of 2014
2. Followed by a continual decline from April 12th to July 19th of 2014
3. Followed by staying Steady from July 2014 till November 2014
4. A small dip further down in December of 2014
5. A small rise from Jan-March of 2015
6. A HUGE spike from June 5-June 13th of 2015
7. A steady decline from June 20th to December 26th 2015 (Post IC release)
8. A small uptake from December 27th to Jan 9th 2016
9. A decline from Jan 2016 to May2016
10. A small uptake from June-July 2016
11. Held steady from July to December 2016
12. A small uptake from Jan-Feb 2017
13. April 2017 small uptake (F2P weekend)
14. Small decline, holding steady in May 2017

If you actually hover your mouse over the blue line it gives you more precise dates

Thats how the data is read.

If these small up and down spikes are the normal, im not sure where they go from here. Skyrim a 2011 game has better trends...They need to find a way to bring in more people somehow.

the game won't survive longterm with these kinda trends.

I want ESO to be around for a long time...they need to figure it out somehow...via marketing whatever...they need to get more people playing the game somehow.

We have never recovered from the HUGE loss of players shortly after Imperial City release. This is the crux...this was the straw that broke the camels back.

Luckily for ZOS its not a game changer yet, they have time to fix it, but they best not wait around too long to do it...even if that means having more F2P weeks, or giving discounts, or bonus items, or something to get more people to buy the game and try it...they need to do something.

I'll bite.

Please give me an estimated date in which ESO will go from dying to dead.

That depends totally on how much Zenimax is willing to invest. How much they have invested.

Your asking a question based on investments. If a company invests 200m into a project, they won't quickly just pull up shop. they will try to break even, or minimize loss.

They could very well right now just barely be scraping by, yet they will keep it going because they are trying to minimize losses or break even on investment.

its unfair of you to ask such a question, because business investments and trends are two completely unrelated things. I have no idea how much capital Zenimax Media actually has, I have no idea what the month to month budget books look like for ESO. How and why compnaies invest and keep certain things and close others are often not even related to each other.

Simply put, its a dishonest question.

this post says the "interest" in the game is dying off, not that the game itself is dying off.

Even STWOR despite being a commercial failure is still up and running, mostly because of investment commits i would assume they have figured out a way to make just enough that they will eventually recoup their investors money and minimize losses, so it makes sense to keep it going for now. Not everything is so cut and dry.

Asking for an estimated date in which ESO will die is a "dishonest question" in a forum post made up of someone stating unequivocally that ESO is dying?

Wow. Your ridiculousness is impressive.

How about this then ... at what point will I no longer be able to play ESO? Or, even better, at what point will I log into a ghost town?

Because, sorry if your chart let you down, but ... and this can be our little secret ... there are still a lot of people who play ESO.

Kiralyn2000

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

Here is the thing, (That i was afraid of when i started this thread)

All the counter arguments here are based soley on peoples personal biases.

they equate "their experience in-game" as gospel and fact.

And your arguments are based on your biases, "supported" by charts you could find that you think agree with those biases.

Minno

lordrichter wrote: »

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

My intent is to hopefully convince ZOS to find new ways to get more people playing.

Noble cause, but ZOS and Bethesda have access to a whole lot more accurate numbers than what you are going to be getting from Google Trends. They also have people who are paid to watch this sort of stuff. They are either all over this already, and a long time ago, or there isn't anything to get all over because the Google data is not painting an accurate picture.

Personally, I think the Google data is easily misleading and misinterpreted.

Minno wrote: »

That's what makes google/steam charts widely used; impartial numbers based on search requests/players playing (via steam).

But, less accurate than anything that ZOS and Bethesda have. Seriously. This isn't even up for debate.

I'd say you are correct, but they don't publish that data so how can I know they are correct?

The steam maps accurately show players playing the game monthly on average. And those dips correspond to mostly free to play weekends. Morrowind announcement has the highest on average peak we have seen since launch.

But how many of these players stay? How much do they spend? Those are quests that determine the lifespan of any game with a monthly monetary system. Steam numbers say the numbers will drop back down to 3k winter/9k summer averages. We will never know how much they make.

THEDKEXPERIENCE

Trump approves the OP.

Linken

The constant doom and gloom on this forum....

Meetre

it is a l2s (learn to stats) issue.

Eshelmen

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

Eshelmen wrote: »

This Author is a complete idiot.

Google Analytics only shows one piece of the pie. And doing a quick analysis of the game, based on the search for "ESO" shows only a portion of the actual truth.
Now, if you were to track any and all related words, terms, websites about ESO, not just the word ESO, then I can guarantee you'll have a much more robust graph.

Nobody is searching this game, because we're already on it! Lol

I've never gone more than 10 minutes in game with out seeing another player. Another joke in the authors words. Maybe PC is dying? Unsure, but on PS4 it is alive and very well.

Yup, because resulting to personal attacks is totally the way to free thought....

just keep proving the point, you don't even know your doing it...

For one, I'm entitled to my thoughts on the author. Deal with it. Two, I work with Google Analytics on a weekly basis. Google Analytics is NOT for proving how a business is doing, merely just showing foot traffic through one source, and one source only, Google.
So again, this author has completely misconstrued what metrics he's actually using.

If I said to you, ten people walked in to your store based on sales, video recordings, actual tallies etc.. Then I'd believe you.

But it you tell me that ten people are walking through your door, based on only one metric system and not the entirety of all systems in place, I'd laugh and say show me more info.

This author uses one word out of dozens of popular terms/words used to make his or her claims. It's a very premature basis to run off of.

Crafts_Many_Boxes

I love how every one of OP's rebuttals doesn't address the fact that Google analytics is worthless if you're only looking at one keyword search when dozens, even hundreds of related keyword searches are done by players who are actually in the game.

Add up all the "X guide ESO", "ESO forums", "ESO X builds", "ESO X DLC", AND all of the "Elder scrolls Online" searches, along with ALL the related fansite searches, and then you'll have real-ish, somewhat meaningful data about general interest in the game, and probably a good idea about game population.

AllPlayAndNoWork

The last comment on the original quoted thread was June 19, 2016...............

JD2013

Wasn't it dying after the original beta? No OK ...

After release? No .... OK carry on.

When Tamriel Unlimited came? Surely dead .... No? OK.

Many "ESO IS DYING!!!" threads later ....



ESO is still here.

Malamar1229

I started the RAF poll like 2 years ago. Wasn't well received.
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/181502/do-you-agree-with-a-free-7-days-trial-and-recruit-a-friend-bonuses

DMuehlhausen

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

Please understand, I don't want this game to die. I actually have fun playing it when I do play it. I have met a lot of good people in this game. If anything it makes me sad (hence the Thread Title)

Statistics DO NOT lie only "manipulated statisitcs" do...of which no such manipulation has been done. Anyone can Google "Google Trends" type in ESO, The Elder Scrolls Online, etc and get the same exact unmanipulated results.

Google has invested Hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into Research and Development into research of Trends and Marketing, their entire business is based off it......They are right 9-out 10 times when it comes to this kinda stuff. They ahve a track record to prove it.

Then stop trying to prove how the game is dying and play the game. This game will not be shut down before 2025, even crappy, and I mean crappy MMOs go for close to 10 years. Hell games like Asheron's Call 1 and 2 were only just recently shut down after nearly 20 years and they only have a couple thousand people tops.

Everquest 1 only went free to play in like 2012 I think that came has been running now for I think 19 years and still outsells some current MMOs that still go. Vanguard, one of the most in depth and fun but buggy and broken, MMOs of all time went from 2007 until just last year so 9 years. That game ran out of money in late Alpha early Beta stages and launched against a small expansion called Burning Crusade maybe you heard of it, and they still got 9 YEARS out of it.

Just stop please. It's such a waste of time.

Elsonso

RinaldoGandolphi wrote: »

All the counter arguments here are based soley on peoples personal biases.

The thing is that your entire first comment in this thread, and most of the ones since then, have been exactly this. You read an article and the article resonated with you. You have, since then, worked to build the case against ESO.

If you had spent some time investigating what your graphs mean, you would have seen that your graphs are showing the base line interest in the game, and that this interest is not waning. It is staying relatively steady.

Do a Google Trends search on "rivenspire", "wayrest", and "mournhold" and you will see a trend of increasing interest. Do a search on "stonefalls" and "auridon" and you will see that flat line, again. These searches indicate queries that are going to be coming from people playing the game, not from people who are just passing by wondering about the game.

Look at the Google Trends for Morrowind. You can watch the game's level of interest decline over time, until this year, when interest has been climbing. This indicates interest in both the old TES game, and the ESO Chapter.

Malamar1229

The google searches are all the console folks looking up lorebook and skyshard locations