Official Discussion Thread for "ESO Welcomes Crown Crates"

Esquire1980g_ESO

Abeille wrote: »

Esquire1980g_ESO wrote: »

Skorol007 wrote: »

wanna make money zos? put the sharpened maelstrom inferno staff in in those boxes

You know there will be a time.

STO (Cryptic) said the exact same things about their lockboxes and now? P2W is touted there as something great while devs come to the PVP forums and state "we could take PVP out of the game and no1 would even notice".

And you know what people will say if it happens, right?

"It's just convenience! You can still get it in game like always!"

Probably be even worse. I'm sure the RNG with traits will be included there also. Lockbox staff with training on it. Only this time, instead of hours running and playing the dungeon, it will cost 4 bucks to try again.

Have a lifer over at STO, bought it when it was a sub game. Haven't logged in in years. Since the announcement here, haven't logged in for months and this game will go to years too. I believe I'm done with AAA MMOs, studios, and their F2P monitization. Too busy building my own game now.

Mercutio

After logging in and checking out the Crown Crates I have done two things:

1) Canceled my membership.

2) Ended talks with CS about gifting some items to my fellow players.

I plan on using up my existing Crowns and then only playing the free version of the game.

I wish Zeni all the best with this new marketing strategy. Sadly it is one I cannot in good conscience support financially.

2016, what a year.

Katahdin

Interesting

I couldn't participate in the Million Ways to Win contest or the Dream Trip contest because of the gambling laws in my state, but it's perfectly fine for me to buy gambling crates?

Something smells and worse than what my dog leaves in the back yard.

I dont welcome them and I am not going to buy them. Total waste of money IMO.

Donum-Dei

DerAlleinTiger wrote: »

https://youtu.be/_3y3esI1VNc?t=1m50s[/quote]

Wow....
This is so sad.
Please Z don't be a MacDonald and or a Burger King. (not joking by the way)

This whole thing looks very shady towards your players.

XRavishX

spiffy_jim wrote: »

I know I'm late to the party, but from the MMOs I've played I'd say ESO's Crown Crates rate somewhere between TERA's Loot Crates and Marvel Heroes Fortune Cards:

TERA - some really cool exclusive mounts, costumes/gear, etc. behind possibly the worst RNG in the business. Most loot boxes leave you with nothing but crafting or consumable garbage. The main benefit is that most of the stuff you find in these boxes can be bought outright in their store, except the loot box version is typically a cool colour/design, and the shop version is the 'basic' version.

Marvel Heroes - some cool outfits and unique, non-PTW items with RNG that's not too bad and also each card gives you a currency that you can save up and eventually use (when you have enough) to buy the cool outfits/uniques if you're unlucky (like me). The best part is that they sell the cards in discounted packs that typically go on sale a few times a year.

My take is that ESO obviously has to keep the lights on and pay the bills, while walking a fine line between turning their fanbase into pitchfork wielding mobs. That being said, there's no reason why this gear, mounts, etc. can't be sold in the store with only a handful of super rare items in the crates for the whales to buy or those times you want to blow some extra crowns from the sale.

I think this is the new future of free MMOs - or at least the current future. If you want to stop this stuff from happening and in order for them to make a profit to show their investors et al that this game is worth investing in instead of just building a new one, then we'd have to go back to a subscription model.

Happy trails.

See? That's the thing. Companies are going this route for one of two reasons: They think people will be willing to spend the money on their game this way instead of another way OR they know people will be willing to spend the money. Companies do their research. Sometimes it doesn't turn out so well, but they still do research to see what can and won't sell. Seeing as so many other companies are doing the same kinds of things, but maybe in slightly different ways, I would guess that people actually want to buy a basic lottery ticket to "cool" stuff. It isn't the worst idea I've ever seen and I know people will buy the crates which, in turn, pays their bills.

ESO has been doing very well in my eyes the past year. I play on console and I've seen improvement after improvement. Yeah, there are ups and downs, but overall I think things are up. I believe the game today is better than it was over a year ago. We aren't forced to make micro-transactions to play, I feel the expansions are reasonably priced with good release timing, and the crown store doesn't give anyone an advantage. I really don't think one can ask for more than that in an MMO these days.

XRavishX

Darkstorne wrote: »

Recremen wrote: »

Friendly reminder that adding in a gamble-for-content feature is exactly equivalent with ZOS saying "we are perfectly content with people spending money and not getting anything out of it". Every detail about the gambling boxes is a business psych trick to squeeze cash out of you without any promise that you're even getting the very cosmetic items that are supposed to keep this damn game afloat. The "gems" are just the latest in a list of refinements to make gambling more appealing. It is nothing more than fair banking, and is designed not even to let you actually buy what you wanted in the first place, but to increase the amount you are willing to spend before giving up.


We must fully reject gambling as a means of content delivery.

We must fully reject a gambling addition to a perfectly functional cash shop.

We must fully reject exclusive, high quality content being used to incentivize gambling.



We must embrace direct purchase of content as the only means of delivery.

We must embrace direct purchase as the only acceptable feature in a cash shop.

We must embrace honest, clear pricing for goods and services.

This cannot be quoted enough. If every post in every thread from now until the end of time was this post, it still wouldn't be overstated.

There are genuine grounds for this business model to be heavily scrutinised under EU digital consumer rights laws. The only thing protecting this MMO trend from gambling laws right now is the fact that it's an in-game currency instead of real-world currency. That's it. It's shady as ****, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it made illegal in the near future, in their current form at least (lack of disclosing odds genuinely makes this WORSE than gambling).

I hope you don't buy lottery tickets then or use slot machines or go to a casino in general. Gambling is not winning. It's spending money to get nothing, but with a chance of getting something. A small chance. A VERY small chance.

Celas_Dranacea

Upon learning that the red pit wolf mount is 100 gems to buy outright, I will be buying crown crates to get it. I estimate the total cost would not be dramatically more than I would have been willing to pay in crowns, and I don't mind throwing a little extra support ZOS' way. Now if it was 400, I would not touch the crates. Please make your next content DLC good ZOS.

wayfarerx

Downloaded the patch, logged in, checked out what these looked like on live....



I've been subbed since PC early access, have supported this game through thick and thin, but I'm done. It's a damn shame too: you made a great game ZOS and you have some really awesome people working for you. However, one of the reasons I came to ESO and stayed so long is because you avoided doing exactly this kind of scammy, low-class garbage.

I still have a sizable stack of crowns to burn through, so I'll be around for awhile, but I'm done paying you guys a monthly stipend so that I can sit around and watch you rip off people with more money than sense.

Whoever green lit this or pushed it through should be ashamed of themselves.

Pathfinder

Why oh why can't we buy Crown gems for Crowns???????

Enodoc

Hey guys, if you're buying crates, we'd love your input in our collaborative drop-rate spreadsheet!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing

Please add all drops, as partial data is useless! Thanks

MadLarkin

Enodoc wrote: »

Hey guys, if you're buying crates, we'd love your input in our collaborative drop-rate spreadsheet!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing

Please add all drops, as partial data is useless! Thanks

This is fantastic. Thanks for setting this up. I'm watching the data roll in and am laughing like a maniac in the middle of my office.

Coolio_Wolfus

Lord_Wrath

Screw you Zos for adding so much garbage into the rng. So many potions and riding lessons and adornments i cant use. Never buying a crate again.

Lord_Wrath

I cant even edit my post wtf.

The gem trade in is as bad as gamestop trade ins.

Shivanaya

Bought 15 Crates & regret it - got a couple of things I'll use, nice horse, pet for collection, a number of costumes, hats and appearance things I'll never use(could have allowed us to exchange the crap we didn't want for Crown Gems on those!!) and lots of consumables I've traded for Crown Gems and will get a few pets/costumes - disappointed and will never get any crates again - I admit I am a bit of a collector but what a waste of money.

Conversion rate is crap, RNG is crap - good way to *** off your clients, if you want them to spend money make the rewards good, make them happy and they'll buy again, *** them off and they won't bother - and they'll tell everyone else it's not worth it as well!!

Another company looking at short term gain and not considering the long term effect of pissing off their customers.

Shivanaya

Also if you convert something eg Riding lesson you get 1 Crown Gem, if you wanted to buy a riding lesson it would cost you 5 Crown Gems!!! What does that tell you?

wenchmore420b14_ESO

Question please my fine fellow forum folks!
I have not voiced my opinion on crates as I wanted to wait till they went live to actually try them first.
Sooooooo... I get in game, buy 4 crates. I wait to open, then I click "Crown Crate" icon. Nothing Happens.
I move or do a action, I get the Khajiits voice over, but no UI screen to open them.
Any ideas? This happen to any one else??

spiffy_jim

wenchmore420b14_ESO wrote: »

Question please my fine fellow forum folks!
I have not voiced my opinion on crates as I wanted to wait till they went live to actually try them first.
Sooooooo... I get in game, buy 4 crates. I wait to open, then I click "Crown Crate" icon. Nothing Happens.
I move or do a action, I get the Khajiits voice over, but no UI screen to open them.
Any ideas? This happen to any one else??

That's odd - any chance you have add-ons installed that could conflict with it?

XRavishX

DerAlleinTiger wrote: »

Sigtric wrote: »

kamimark wrote: »

MadLarkin wrote: »

I am against WoW being B2P + Subscription AND having a cash shop on top of it, hence why I've never played it. Unturned is F2P from a small developer. It isn't a large studio with multiple revenue sources on three major platforms. CS:GO also has a $15 price point, skins can drop directly, and you can buy what you want directly from the Steam marketplace without having to gamble.

Whether the skin is gambling-only or bought with cash, it's still just a skin. It makes zero difference to your gameplay.

Just because they don't change gameplay doesn't mean people don't put value on them for other reasons.
And they do actually have the possibility of changing gameplay for people who partake in RP.

As an RPer, this is absolutely true. "Oh, you mean this outfit you would have been happy to buy in the crown store is just perfect for your character? Well, sorry to say you'll have to gamble to get it. Too bad, so sad." RPers tend to spend a lot on the crown store for the outfits and mounts, because for them the look of their character is something they craft carefully and with excitement. But even RPers can see when something is an absolute rip-off and detrimental to the customer.

If your justification for the exclusives in the crown crates is "They don't add anything to the gamplay" then I would ask "Why do they make them and sell them then?" Oh right, because they hold some form of value that makes them desirable to people. People who'd want to buy them using the system that is already in place. This is a silly defense. If they don't matter, then why do people buy them? Why does anyone buy anything from the crown store? Because MMO's, and ESO in particular, have a very large customization factor - a factor that started out very strong in ESO and has only expanded with dyes, costume dyes, and frequent additions of motifs both brand new and based on previously-drop-only gear. This is essentially carving out a large section of that factor and saying, "Oh, is this something you wanted? Well, just go ahead and gamble for it!" It just feels slimy and is inherently detrimental to the customer.

I would actually be willing to concede to the crown crates' existence if it weren't for the exclusives. That would just be giving the customer an option, a choice! Customer choice is good! But it ceases to be a customer choice when you only give them 1 choice to get that item. It's one thing to have only a direct purchase method. No, there isn't much choice but at least it's direct, it's standardized, and it's honest. But I'm not unwilling to see an RNG box system added if it's just another choice for the same items. If you WANT to gamble to POTENTIALLY get the same items for lower prices, then by all means do! I would have zero issues with giving them, and other customers, that option in the business model. If you choose to gamble for those same items then that's on you. But when you have to gamble just to have a chance at getting it, it takes away choice rather than giving more.

RPing by nature allows you to create stories within limits. So, the point is to work with what you've got. If something you can use becomes available, then use it, otherwise, the story goes off in a different direction. RPing is basically another life, one that is different from reality, but on no less real in the confines of its own universe. Thus, *** can happen at the worst times and great things happen at the best times. Having particular items not immediately and perfectly available to you for use shouldn't affect your role playing one iota.

Elsonso

.

wenchmore420b14_ESO wrote: »

Question please my fine fellow forum folks!
I have not voiced my opinion on crates as I wanted to wait till they went live to actually try them first.
Sooooooo... I get in game, buy 4 crates. I wait to open, then I click "Crown Crate" icon. Nothing Happens.
I move or do a action, I get the Khajiits voice over, but no UI screen to open them.
Any ideas? This happen to any one else??

For an extra 1000 Crowns, you can unlock the UI.

Just kidding. There are other topics in the forum about this. Check them out.

XRavishX

Recremen wrote: »

shadoza wrote: »

MBite wrote: »

"ESO Welcomes Crown Crates"

Ok guys, put your hands up, i want to see who welcomes them. No dont be shy, i dont have axe, maybe... no no, just put your hands up.


Anyway, trash for 400 crowns, thats must buy /s
I'm waiting to see what items will be only exclusive in future, I hope nothing. Sadly hope died today.

O/
I welcome them. I have many crowns and nothing I want to purchase in the store...so now I have a place to put those membership crowns

@shadoza

Then why not advocate for the items to be sold directly, instead of having to gamble for them? You'd still have a place to spend all the crowns that you're apparently sitting around on. I mean you do actually want the items, right? And hey, you know what's even better about direct sales? You actually get the goods and services you were looking for! So if you want the items locked behind the gambling boxes, you ought to be super ticked that you might spend all those crowns you have saved up and not get anything.

Some might actually have fun gambling. Otherwise, casinos and bingo wouldn't exist. If I spend money on the gambling boxes I am purchasing them with the understand that most of the time I will "lose" as that's the nature of gambling. I really don't see how this concept is so difficult for people to understand. Some people actually like gambling and don't mind spending their money on the chance to win something. I said the CHANCE. That is gambling!

wenchmore420b14_ESO

lordrichter wrote: »

.

wenchmore420b14_ESO wrote: »

Question please my fine fellow forum folks!
I have not voiced my opinion on crates as I wanted to wait till they went live to actually try them first.
Sooooooo... I get in game, buy 4 crates. I wait to open, then I click "Crown Crate" icon. Nothing Happens.
I move or do a action, I get the Khajiits voice over, but no UI screen to open them.
Any ideas? This happen to any one else??

For an extra 1000 Crowns, you can unlock the UI.

Just kidding. There are other topics in the forum about this. Check them out.

Lol... Yup, got it. You have to disable "Out-of-Date" add-ons...

XRavishX

Abeille wrote: »

Ahnastashia wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

rmerlb16_ESO wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

They make nothing selling Crown Crates.

They make money from us in four ways. They sell the initial game license, they sell Crowns, they sell ESO Plus subscriptions, they sell merchandise in the Bethesda ESO Store.

With Crowns, it does not matter what you purchase in the Store, or if you purchase anything at all. What Crown Crates do is deplete Crown reserves and encourage purchase of additional Crowns.

That's a contradiction there. You say yourself that crown crates will encourage the purchase of additional Crowns. Then looks to me that selling Crown Crates does allow them to make money.

They make money selling Crowns, not Crown Crates. All that matters, at the end of the day, is how much revenue they make from the Crowns they sell. Not how many Crown Crates.

Edit: With my ESO Plus Crowns, I can buy 45 Crown Crates during a year and not have to buy a single additional Crown. This nets ZOS absolutely no extra revenue from me. None. Zip. Were I to do this, the Crown Crates would simply be part of my ESO Plus subscription.

I won't be using my ESO Plus Crowns for this, just to be clear.

If they see a significant increase in crown purchases and also many crown crate purchases, I'm going to say I believe they will see the connection, and will see the introduction of crown crates as a "huge success". If however, they do not see an increase in crown purchases and little to no crown crate purchases, I would think that would be a message that their crown crates failed. Am I wrong here?

I will repeat something that @lordrichter said to me a month ago.

Regardless of what happens, the first news we get regarding the Crown Crates will surely contain the expression "huge success".

They have no problem saying that ESO "welcomes" them while the feedback is overwhelmingly negative. They will have no problem saying they were a success even if they don't sell like they expected (although given the history of this kind of scam in MMOs, they will sell).

Is it so hard to believe that people like gambling and that crown crates can very well be a success?

JimT722

XRavishX wrote: »

Abeille wrote: »

Ahnastashia wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

rmerlb16_ESO wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

They make nothing selling Crown Crates.

They make money from us in four ways. They sell the initial game license, they sell Crowns, they sell ESO Plus subscriptions, they sell merchandise in the Bethesda ESO Store.

With Crowns, it does not matter what you purchase in the Store, or if you purchase anything at all. What Crown Crates do is deplete Crown reserves and encourage purchase of additional Crowns.

That's a contradiction there. You say yourself that crown crates will encourage the purchase of additional Crowns. Then looks to me that selling Crown Crates does allow them to make money.

They make money selling Crowns, not Crown Crates. All that matters, at the end of the day, is how much revenue they make from the Crowns they sell. Not how many Crown Crates.

Edit: With my ESO Plus Crowns, I can buy 45 Crown Crates during a year and not have to buy a single additional Crown. This nets ZOS absolutely no extra revenue from me. None. Zip. Were I to do this, the Crown Crates would simply be part of my ESO Plus subscription.

I won't be using my ESO Plus Crowns for this, just to be clear.

If they see a significant increase in crown purchases and also many crown crate purchases, I'm going to say I believe they will see the connection, and will see the introduction of crown crates as a "huge success". If however, they do not see an increase in crown purchases and little to no crown crate purchases, I would think that would be a message that their crown crates failed. Am I wrong here?

I will repeat something that @lordrichter said to me a month ago.

Regardless of what happens, the first news we get regarding the Crown Crates will surely contain the expression "huge success".

They have no problem saying that ESO "welcomes" them while the feedback is overwhelmingly negative. They will have no problem saying they were a success even if they don't sell like they expected (although given the history of this kind of scam in MMOs, they will sell).

Is it so hard to believe that people like gambling and that crown crates can very well be a success?

when people bought Elder Scrolls Online, it didn't contain real money gambling. What about the people that have supported the game for nearly 3 years who want nothing to do with gambling and would rather avoid it.

GOATGOBAAHH

As a community I want ESO to do well. I also want new people to keep coming to this game. I upon playing had numerous "why is that this way moments" only to be told by friends "that's just ESO".

Let's face the facts

• People love buying new gear
• The less people seen with said new gear...(MOUNTS)
• Lesser the chances of people buying "random" chance crates because of the low chance to get the desired gear.(MOUNTS)

I'm disappointed on the overall lack of information. Had I known each potion or consumable was only worth 1 gem and the fact that you couldn't sell everything back ( I got 5 pets I'll never use) . After seeing how each mount costs 400 gems I wouldn't have bought them at all.

Dropping 5k (almost $40) on not even a single mount or even the choice. First and last time I'll participate in this program.
Seeing other posts of people dropping $120 of IRL money and not having the mount they want nor the accumulated crown gems to get the mount they want?


I'll conclude this with what my friend and I have concluded. Whenever we see "Random" in ESO it really says "Never".

Vanilla

I am sad to find out that this game is doing so poorly that they have to resort to lootboxes in order to stay afloat. when I saw "Crown Crates" I first had to make sure that Perfect World Entertainment didn't buy out the company because that's the king of crap they do: Hijack a game that is doing well then load it up with lootboxes so they can make money off the people willing to gamble for something they will never see. It only makes things worse in games with an auction system because most of the time, people will sell the lootbox items on the marketplace in order to make more money and screw up the game's economy. Thankfully, ESO has no worthwhile marketplace since it is run by guilds that never have what you want in stock anyway.

JimT722

Vanilla wrote: »

I am sad to find out that this game is doing so poorly that they have to resort to lootboxes in order to stay afloat. when I saw "Crown Crates" I first had to make sure that Perfect World Entertainment didn't buy out the company because that's the king of crap they do: Hijack a game that is doing well then load it up with lootboxes so they can make money off the people willing to gamble for something they will never see. It only makes things worse in games with an auction system because most of the time, people will sell the lootbox items on the marketplace in order to make more money and screw up the game's economy. Thankfully, ESO has no worthwhile marketplace since it is run by guilds that never have what you want in stock anyway.

I'm sure this won't be a surprise but they recently hired a marketing director who worked for Perfect World. That is why this crap is being implemented. I also very doubt this game was hurting financially, but rather they are very greedy.

XRavishX

Mercutio wrote: »

1) Consumer Goodwill. Much like 'political capital', consumer goodwill is a finite, if non tangible, resource. I would say you have burned through a good bit of your accumulated stock with the release of Crown Crates. While I suspect the spread sheet will show this as a good short term move, long term I think you cooked the golden goose.

I think you're mistaken. It's like saying the lottery is only short-term. What you aren't coming to terms with is the idea that people like to gamble. People like to gamble so much that they can get addicted to it and destroy their lives for it. In other words, gambling is here to stay.

Mercutio wrote: »

2) Product Toxicity. Even if I saw something in the Crown Crates that I greatly desired, I would be too ashamed to show it to the public. So why bother?

If someone gets a prize from a raffle they paid into, I'll never see them hanging their heads in shame. Sure I could go buy that same item they won and flaunt it like it's the next best thing since sliced bread, but it's not the same as winning it. Saying you'd be ashamed of winning a prize would be baffling to anyone. I'm quite frankly surprised that you didn't just baffle yourself.

Mercutio wrote: »

[*] Give one Crown Crate a month to subscribers of ESO Plus

They already get 1500 crowns a month. Someone earlier posted that they didn't see anything they wanted in the store so now it's a good way to spend their leftover crowns. I see no point in giving them the equivalent of $5 more. They're basically getting the 1500 a month for $15 and everything else for free. The crates just give them more options on what to spend the crowns on. You're asking ZOS to just give away money they could potentially earn.

Mercutio wrote: »

[*] Have Crown Crates drop in the game world. Something small like 0.3%.

That defeats the purpose of having them in the crown store no matter what the drop rate is. How does one get over drop rates? Increase the number of drops. Even if the chance is super small on an individual scale, when you have hundreds of thousand of people that play, the chances that boxes will be drop by the entire player base increases like crazy. If we use your percentage as an example, we can say that for every 1000 people there are 3 boxes that are dropped if all 1000 kill something. If all 1000 kill only one mob a minute, ZOS just gave away 180 crates (the equivalent of about $900) in one hour. Now, there aren't only 1000 people playing at any given time, they're killing mobs a lot more frequently than 1 a minute, and I seriously doubt that ZOS is interested in giving away $900 an hour even if that's all they gave away no matter how many people are in the game. It makes zero business sense.

Mercutio wrote: »

[*] Have one weekend a year where everything ever offered is put on sale in your Crown Shop.

Well, you talk about trying to not tick off the player base, but this is exactly what you'll do with this kind of sale. All those people who gambled their hard earned cash may very well look upon this kind of sale as a big F-YOU. They might as well wait for the one time a year to get those items like they do for any of the yearly events that take place in the game, which means a theoretical zero people would buy the crates.

I don't even want to get into the reasons why you think they would help because the ideas you came up with either don't make business sense, or serve to anger people who've already spent money. The fact of the matter is that having crown crates hurt no one. Anyone seeing an item they want from the crates can either gamble for those items, save up by trading in the stuff they've won, or turn the other direction and live without them.

Elsonso

XRavishX wrote: »

Well, you talk about trying to not tick off the player base, but this is exactly what you'll do with this kind of sale. All those people who gambled their hard earned cash may very well look upon this kind of sale as a big F-YOU. They might as well wait for the one time a year to get those items like they do for any of the yearly events that take place in the game, which means a theoretical zero people would buy the crates.

In this case, you are right, for items that have been advertised as Crate exclusives. Not every item in the Crown Crates is exclusive. Crown Crates include new and exclusive items, as well as some items people might have missed in previous limited time offers. For any item in the Crates not branded as exclusive, or for items from other events, including "Limited Time Offers", your thinking does not apply. ZOS is free to put them into the store. In those cases, umbrage from people who have previously won the item in a Crate is misguided.

That said, they will not put even the non-exclusive items in the store for general purchase, which is sad. At best, they might do some sort of Crown Crate promotion, but even that I doubt they will do.

Oh, and as an edit, I do want to point out that the one thing we have learned is that ZOS has absolutely no fear when it comes to ticking off the player base. We can never again use that as a reason for them to not do something.

Abeille

XRavishX wrote: »

Abeille wrote: »

Ahnastashia wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

rmerlb16_ESO wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

They make nothing selling Crown Crates.

They make money from us in four ways. They sell the initial game license, they sell Crowns, they sell ESO Plus subscriptions, they sell merchandise in the Bethesda ESO Store.

With Crowns, it does not matter what you purchase in the Store, or if you purchase anything at all. What Crown Crates do is deplete Crown reserves and encourage purchase of additional Crowns.

That's a contradiction there. You say yourself that crown crates will encourage the purchase of additional Crowns. Then looks to me that selling Crown Crates does allow them to make money.

They make money selling Crowns, not Crown Crates. All that matters, at the end of the day, is how much revenue they make from the Crowns they sell. Not how many Crown Crates.

Edit: With my ESO Plus Crowns, I can buy 45 Crown Crates during a year and not have to buy a single additional Crown. This nets ZOS absolutely no extra revenue from me. None. Zip. Were I to do this, the Crown Crates would simply be part of my ESO Plus subscription.

I won't be using my ESO Plus Crowns for this, just to be clear.

If they see a significant increase in crown purchases and also many crown crate purchases, I'm going to say I believe they will see the connection, and will see the introduction of crown crates as a "huge success". If however, they do not see an increase in crown purchases and little to no crown crate purchases, I would think that would be a message that their crown crates failed. Am I wrong here?

I will repeat something that @lordrichter said to me a month ago.

Regardless of what happens, the first news we get regarding the Crown Crates will surely contain the expression "huge success".

They have no problem saying that ESO "welcomes" them while the feedback is overwhelmingly negative. They will have no problem saying they were a success even if they don't sell like they expected (although given the history of this kind of scam in MMOs, they will sell).

Is it so hard to believe that people like gambling and that crown crates can very well be a success?

Of course not, I see many people who like gambling and do not know/care for the effect this kind of things have in the health of the game, which is why I didn't say that they won't be a success. I said that it doesn't matter if they are a success or not, the reports will be the same.

That's what "regardless of what happens" means. It means the person saying it considers more than one outcome as a possibility.