Perfect Roe Ratio discovery thread

DaveMoeDee

smacx250 wrote: »

DaveMoeDee wrote: »

Acrolas wrote: »

You can't really find a ratio for this, because it's n% per fish, not n% per x number of fish skinned. Each event is independent.

What you'd have to do is have 1,000 different people skin one fish and tabulate the results. If three out of that 1,000 get roe, then your sample success is 0.3%. That's still not a drop rate. That's just a survey of yes over no.

Then you'd have to run 1,000 people many more times to get an observed low-high range. For example, in a sample of 1,000, between 2 and 11 people found one roe off of one fish. Or 0.2 to 1.1%.

Which is a pretty crappy range for something prized and sought after yet worth absolutely nothing to a vendor.

But that's all right. Fishing is a nice, relaxing in-game hobby. And it's strange how Ambrosia is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game so far. In some ways, the search is going to be more fun than actually using it.

You are making this way more complicate than it actually is.

The odds of a particular outcome are universal in this case. Just like flipping a quarter. If it is a balanced quarter, the odds of getting heads are 0.5 or 50%. If I toss twice and get both heads, that does not change the underlying probability to 1.0. The sample size is too low for us to say much about the probability in that case.

To figure out the unknown probability of an even, we need a large sample. It does not matter if the sample is all from a single person or from multiple people. The same goes for perfect roe since each skinning is an independent even with a set probability of getting the row.

Now, your approach of using multiple people can get you additional information. What it would show is the distribution of outcomes for that probability. The things is, that will not give any information that is as useful as just adding up all the outcomes and computing a percentage. If this is just a RNG with a set probability, than we already know the distribution without going through that extra effort.

We also know the low and high range. The low is 0% success. The high is 100%. Those are just insanely improbably for large sample sizes. Again, there is no need to test specifically for that info since math can tell us all that once we have a large enough sample to be confident of our probability that a skinning will result in perfect roe.

That is all true if each trial (skinning) is independent, but some are speculating that they are not. While I'm inclined to think the trials are indeed independent, I wouldn't put it past ZOS to have something in there to correlate trials with other variables - a pure independent RNG may not achieve whatever goals they have (e.g., modern slot machines don't always use independent trials, as other distributions have been shown to be more effective at keeping people feeding in the $$$). For example, they could just keep a ratio of the XP scrolls used to the XP drinks used, and feed that into the roe probability to "auto correct" any imbalance from the desired ratio.

Sure, it could in theory not be independent.

Though the people who think these things aren't independent are usually the ones who poorly understand distributions and expect everything they do to be at the mean and are surprised by clumpiness. In fact, the frustration many feel could be a result of making each skinning independent which (as expected) leaves some people as outliers at the futility end of the distribution.

I_killed_Vivec

DaveMoeDee wrote: »

smacx250 wrote: »

DaveMoeDee wrote: »

Acrolas wrote: »

You can't really find a ratio for this, because it's n% per fish, not n% per x number of fish skinned. Each event is independent.

What you'd have to do is have 1,000 different people skin one fish and tabulate the results. If three out of that 1,000 get roe, then your sample success is 0.3%. That's still not a drop rate. That's just a survey of yes over no.

Then you'd have to run 1,000 people many more times to get an observed low-high range. For example, in a sample of 1,000, between 2 and 11 people found one roe off of one fish. Or 0.2 to 1.1%.

Which is a pretty crappy range for something prized and sought after yet worth absolutely nothing to a vendor.

But that's all right. Fishing is a nice, relaxing in-game hobby. And it's strange how Ambrosia is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game so far. In some ways, the search is going to be more fun than actually using it.

You are making this way more complicate than it actually is.

The odds of a particular outcome are universal in this case. Just like flipping a quarter. If it is a balanced quarter, the odds of getting heads are 0.5 or 50%. If I toss twice and get both heads, that does not change the underlying probability to 1.0. The sample size is too low for us to say much about the probability in that case.

To figure out the unknown probability of an even, we need a large sample. It does not matter if the sample is all from a single person or from multiple people. The same goes for perfect roe since each skinning is an independent even with a set probability of getting the row.

Now, your approach of using multiple people can get you additional information. What it would show is the distribution of outcomes for that probability. The things is, that will not give any information that is as useful as just adding up all the outcomes and computing a percentage. If this is just a RNG with a set probability, than we already know the distribution without going through that extra effort.

We also know the low and high range. The low is 0% success. The high is 100%. Those are just insanely improbably for large sample sizes. Again, there is no need to test specifically for that info since math can tell us all that once we have a large enough sample to be confident of our probability that a skinning will result in perfect roe.

That is all true if each trial (skinning) is independent, but some are speculating that they are not. While I'm inclined to think the trials are indeed independent, I wouldn't put it past ZOS to have something in there to correlate trials with other variables - a pure independent RNG may not achieve whatever goals they have (e.g., modern slot machines don't always use independent trials, as other distributions have been shown to be more effective at keeping people feeding in the $$$). For example, they could just keep a ratio of the XP scrolls used to the XP drinks used, and feed that into the roe probability to "auto correct" any imbalance from the desired ratio.

Sure, it could in theory not be independent.

Though the people who think these things aren't independent are usually the ones who poorly understand distributions and expect everything they do to be at the mean and are surprised by clumpiness. In fact, the frustration many feel could be a result of making each skinning independent which (as expected) leaves some people as outliers at the futility end of the distribution.

I'm sure that the distribution is game wide, players don't have their own RNG ticking away. We have no idea what's going on with thousands of other fish when we fillet our own, we just see a minuscule sample of the distribution.

Of course that doesn't stop us feeling something's "wrong" if we fillet 500 and don't get any.

Though for some reason we're less inclined to complain when we get two from a dozen fish...

deadlykitten6

i did 213 fish yesterday and got 7 roe.

Roselle

UrQuan wrote: »

All of the people who don't like fishing hate how much time it takes to get perfect roe, while those of us who like fishing are just walking around with big grins on our faces

How? I lose my bait just out of pure boredom at not really watching the most terribly designed fishing animation in history of all history of games.

The_4O4

Around 30ish

SpAEkus

Roselle wrote: »

How? I lose my bait just out of pure boredom at not really watching the most terribly designed fishing animation in history of all history of games.

If you really want to spend some time fishing, get Votan's Fisherman addon if on PC. Just set it up, wait for the "boing" and you can read a book while you do it or watch TV.

dylanslcruchelowb14a_ESO

I have skinned many fish and found the ratio to be 1 roe for every 100-150 fish. that's a pretty solid stat that has been backed up by a lot of other roe farmers.

capnbinky

I found 2 Perfect Roe in my first 10 fish. But not a single one since.

Thisguyrye

Skinned 105 yesterday got 5 skinned 110 today got 2.

7 for 215 not to bad.

Brrrofski

I just fish now and then if I'm questing and come across a hole. Throw 2 or 3 lines and move on. Snagged my first roe yesterday. Out of maybe 30-35 fish I've caught since it's introduction

phairdon

Tonight I caught then filleted 107 fish. One perfect roe. At this ratio, I'll need to catch 1070 to get 10.

Update. 2 from 212 fish.

Taylor21554

Saw this thread, thought I would give it a try. Bought 10 simple bait and fished outside else root. Skinned 3 fish got a perfect roe.. lol. I bet my next 200 won't get a thing.

Woolenthreads

Taylor21554 wrote: »

Saw this thread, thought I would give it a try. Bought 10 simple bait and fished outside else root. Skinned 3 fish got a perfect roe.. lol. I bet my next 200 won't get a thing.

It is indeed a possibility but it does also depend on the top of the bell and the outlier rims. Personally I only fish in short periods while waiting for something to happen, usually on weekends waiting for the Writ clock to turn over. I do keep track though so atm I have one perfect Roe for 46 fish all of which come from Belkarth Creek, either River Betty or Salmon.

HaymakerXtc

i have a dumb question... I dont even know hot to Fillet the fish...
in my inventory when i have fish.. i have 1 option.. When i click Use... my option is to destroy...
what am i missing.. iwas told to do it from inventory..

Thisguyrye

HaymakerXtc wrote: »

i have a dumb question... I dont even know hot to Fillet the fish...
in my inventory when i have fish.. i have 1 option.. When i click Use... my option is to destroy...
what am i missing.. iwas told to do it from inventory..

On ps4 you hit X to skin it

Rittings

Here is the funny part... you get no XP for fishing. You need about 100-150 fish for each perfect roe. It takes approximately 1-2 hours of fishing (closer to the 2 since you have to find spots and bait). That will make you 4 XP potions... which means you'll get about and extra 30 minutes worth of XP for every 1 hour you play.

So... basically, you get 2 hours worth of XP from 4 potions...

Yeah... that's not happening.

newtinmpls

danlcfc wrote: »

12 fish from foul water, 1 roe

Would happily swap it for a four eye grog recipie though

if you are on PC NA send me a game mail and I'll make some for you. Don't have a spare recipie (yet) though.

newtinmpls

UrQuan wrote: »

All of the people who don't like fishing hate how much time it takes to get perfect roe, while those of us who like fishing are just walking around with big grins on our faces

.
.

Roselle wrote: »

How? I lose my bait just out of pure boredom at not really watching the most terribly designed fishing animation in history of all history of games.

If you are on PC look for the fishing addon, it has a visual and a sound cue.

DaveMoeDee

Roselle wrote: »

UrQuan wrote: »

All of the people who don't like fishing hate how much time it takes to get perfect roe, while those of us who like fishing are just walking around with big grins on our faces

How? I lose my bait just out of pure boredom at not really watching the most terribly designed fishing animation in history of all history of games.

Pretty standard fishing animation.

Just use the addon that lets you know when to pull in the fish.

urkonse

i have used ~200 fish & got 2 roe after that update on ps4

SpAEkus

DaveMoeDee wrote: »

Just use the addon that lets you know when to pull in the fish.

VOTAN's FISHERMAN for PC

You can watch TV and fish with this addon, just listen for the "BOOIINNG"

makeumrage

While hinting for skyshards.. 1 fish got 1 roe. Should have played the lottery that day. I think its a snall chance each fish. So no matter how many you skin on each fish you have the same likely hood to get it. My buddy got 6 on 20 fish the other day while I skinned 200 and got zilch.

BabeestorGor

This afternoon 3 perfect roe from 16 fish. Mind you thats the only perfect roe I've gotten from 100s of fish.

CavalierKing

200+ - no roe

BigSwole703

300+ - 1 roe

Woolenthreads

I have currently caught 101 fish and gained 2 perfect roe and 7 green fish. I think I'm slightly more than annoyed when I get green fish .

Swindy

2 from my first 40 fish. (Up to about 60 total now.)
The first was from fish number 15.
My first blue fish was number 8, in Craglorn.
Averaging a green every 20 fish.

I have IE & am on Eu XBox.
I do not concern myself with which bait where etc or farming bait, I just drop a line wherever I can when I have bait.
Hence my results are utterly random & without intelligent planning.

I can state that if you kill a gold bar mini boss or three to get access to the pond, you get no better results than a random pool in the middle of nowhere.

krullskull

I just skinned 120 and got nothing, but two days ago I skinned 270 and got 3, which is great if all you want to do every second of your gaming time is fish and fillet (one by one)

Insomnia rex

mrdiamond666

About 1-2 per 100 fish for me...