Maintenance for the week of January 13:
• PC/Mac: No maintenance – January 13
• PC/Mac: No maintenance – January 13
Perfect Roe Ratio discovery thread
-
Daishin15✭✭✭I'm on the Xbox ONE EP I am maxed out Provisioner And I got Roe every 80 filletsBeware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.0 -
Daishin15✭✭✭Actually I only used 400 fish and got 8 of them so...
maybe more. Qualified you are better the chance? Kinda like the passives under BS and Wood and Clothing to extract just a thought...Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.0 -
Kaylenx✭1@ 134
2@ 428
3@ 434
All fish (spadetail / silverside perch) from Craglorn Lake. Skinning one fish after every fish caught.
At 400 fish with only 1 Perfect Roe, let's just say I was getting a little frustrated.
NA-PS4
Edit:
4@ 435 . Things are looking good!Edited by Kaylenx on July 30, 2015 3:57AM0 -
michalmack✭✭✭I personally saved up just over 2500 fish after i heard about the psijic ambrosia. After filleting them all i ended up with 28 perfect roe. I had stretches with 1 in 400 and also stretches with 1 every 10 or 15. But in the end just a little over 1%.
I also saved up all my rewards from my provisioning writs,170 total ( I have all 8 toons level 50 in provisioning) and i got 8 of the recipe fragments. So bout a 5% drop on those.1 -
Ackwalan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭There seems to be a modifier in place to put some kind of control on the roe drop rate. If I fillet 10 fish a day or a few hours apart, I have a higher success rate over a week, then if I do 100's at a time.1 -
Daishin15✭✭✭There seems to be a modifier in place to put some kind of control on the roe drop rate. If I fillet 10 fish a day or a few hours apart, I have a higher success rate over a week, then if I do 100's at a time.
I was just thinking the exact same thing. Seems to me in one "sitting" 500 is the max number for best results. I'm keeping a record. I'll update you tomorrow morning. Goal is to do exact same number of fish for days and average the stats everyday. For everyone else please post legit statistics. Not saying that anyone is lien. This is for data purposesBeware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.0 -
Hosiaha✭I got my first one after 65 fish and another that i bought. Still hoping to get some fragments. Anyone have them?Edited by Hosiaha on July 30, 2015 8:28PM0
-
Antubis✭✭Was doing a batch of 100, got my first one after 28 fish. Running total: 901 fish to 1 perfect Roe (at least I finally felt like the Last Dragon with the Glow)Edited by Antubis on July 31, 2015 8:29AM0
-
Surfinginhawaii✭✭✭I fished for about 2 hours today and filleted about 226 fish and received no perfect roe. I got bored after 2 hours and needed to move on.0 -
Clamath✭I don't know if I'm extremely lucky, but I have fished now three days in a row using 100 to 125 insect parts a day and have gotten five, four and five perfect roes. I don't remember how many fish I fillet, but that's 14 roes and only about 350 baits used.
0 -
newtinmpls✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Foul water, bored on the way back to the bank, caught 5 slaughterfish, 3 trogh (probably spelling that wrong), 1 roe. Had skinned them in the bank of wayrest so I can just imagine the "clerk"s disapproval (what the heck, long bank lines).Tenesi Faryon of Telvanni - Dunmer Sorceress who deliberately sought sacrifice into Cold Harbor to rescue her beloved.
Hisa Ni Caemaire - Altmer Sorceress, member of the Order Draconis and Adept of the House of Dibella.
Broken Branch Toothmaul - goblin (for my goblin characters, I use either orsimer or bosmer templates) Templar, member of the Order Draconis and persistently unskilled pickpocket
Mol gro Durga - Orsimer Socerer/Battlemage who died the first time when the Nibenay Valley chapterhouse of the Order Draconis was destroyed, then went back to Cold Harbor to rescue his second/partner who was still captive. He overestimated his resistance to the hopelessness of Oblivion, about to give up, and looked up to see the golden glow of atherius surrounding a beautiful young woman who extended her hand to him and said "I can help you". He carried Fianna Kingsley out of Cold Harbor on his shoulder. He carried Alvard Stower under one arm. He also irritated the Prophet who had intended the portal for only Mol and Lyris.***Order Draconis - well c'mon there has to be some explanation for all those dragon tattoos.
House of Dibella - If you have ever seen or read "Memoirs of a Geisha" that's just the beginning...
Nibenay Valley Chapterhouse - Where now stands only desolate ground and a dolmen there once was a thriving community supporting one of the major chapterhouses of the Order Draconis1 -
Daishin15✭✭✭Try maxing your provisioning then filling the fishBeware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.0
-
Umad_BrO✭✭✭I'm averaging 1 every 20 - 30 fish. I found a wicked fishing hole that drops every time I go to it.What's the matter? Did somebody steal your sweet roll?0 -
AzothOTGB✭✭I think we are better off fishing in small batches and skinning until you find a Roe. I also find that switching areas and characters nets me more Roe then sitting on one character fishing tons of fish at once.
Fishing a hole in its entirety seems to help (me at least)Azoth of the Great Beyond | V14 | Ebonheart Pact | PC / NA
Guild Leader of The Dragon's Heart
Formerly of CM500 & Pride
Wabba 1.0 Certified0 -
AzothOTGB✭✭The_Conquerer wrote: »how much does perfect roe sell for?
Currently around 13.5k on average (last I checked)Azoth of the Great Beyond | V14 | Ebonheart Pact | PC / NA
Guild Leader of The Dragon's Heart
Formerly of CM500 & Pride
Wabba 1.0 Certified0 -
Daishin15✭✭✭The_Conquerer wrote: »how much does perfect roe sell for?
Currently around 13.5k on average (last I checked)
Umm that price must be PC on Xbox One it is selling average of 25kBeware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.0 -
danlcfcSoul Shriven12 fish from foul water, 1 roe
Would happily swap it for a four eye grog recipie though
Edited by danlcfc on August 4, 2015 4:09PM0 -
DaveMoeDee✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭MornaBaine wrote: »So essentially it's completely ridiculous and the time and effort to acquire all pieces of the recipe, being stuck depending on hireling mails for the TWO purple mats that, if you use them for this, will make it impossible to make the upper level food and drinks you ALSO need, and the absolutely terrible drop rate of the roe actually COMPLETELY NEGATES the point of getting a drink that is supposed to...wait for it.... SAVE YOU TIME.
Of course you can always just buy the version they'll be selling in the cash shop.
OF COURSE.
Or not bother with pot.
I am chasing it as a completionist, so I'm fine.
I also do not think that opportunity costs are a bad thing.0 -
DaveMoeDee✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭You can't really find a ratio for this, because it's n% per fish, not n% per x number of fish skinned. Each event is independent.
What you'd have to do is have 1,000 different people skin one fish and tabulate the results. If three out of that 1,000 get roe, then your sample success is 0.3%. That's still not a drop rate. That's just a survey of yes over no.
Then you'd have to run 1,000 people many more times to get an observed low-high range. For example, in a sample of 1,000, between 2 and 11 people found one roe off of one fish. Or 0.2 to 1.1%.
Which is a pretty crappy range for something prized and sought after yet worth absolutely nothing to a vendor.
But that's all right. Fishing is a nice, relaxing in-game hobby. And it's strange how Ambrosia is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game so far. In some ways, the search is going to be more fun than actually using it.
I enjoy the chase. I previously hated fishing, but once I added the mod that puts the big hook and tracks trophies, I have found it quite relaxing.
Unfortunately, my writs seem to love giving me fragment #3. I'll trade those down the line. Once I get the recipe, I'm not sure I'll use it. I just want it. I want my main to have done everything.0 -
DaveMoeDee✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭You can't really find a ratio for this, because it's n% per fish, not n% per x number of fish skinned. Each event is independent.
What you'd have to do is have 1,000 different people skin one fish and tabulate the results. If three out of that 1,000 get roe, then your sample success is 0.3%. That's still not a drop rate. That's just a survey of yes over no.
Then you'd have to run 1,000 people many more times to get an observed low-high range. For example, in a sample of 1,000, between 2 and 11 people found one roe off of one fish. Or 0.2 to 1.1%.
Which is a pretty crappy range for something prized and sought after yet worth absolutely nothing to a vendor.
But that's all right. Fishing is a nice, relaxing in-game hobby. And it's strange how Ambrosia is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game so far. In some ways, the search is going to be more fun than actually using it.
You are making this way more complicate than it actually is.
The odds of a particular outcome are universal in this case. Just like flipping a quarter. If it is a balanced quarter, the odds of getting heads are 0.5 or 50%. If I toss twice and get both heads, that does not change the underlying probability to 1.0. The sample size is too low for us to say much about the probability in that case.
To figure out the unknown probability of an even, we need a large sample. It does not matter if the sample is all from a single person or from multiple people. The same goes for perfect roe since each skinning is an independent even with a set probability of getting the row.
Now, your approach of using multiple people can get you additional information. What it would show is the distribution of outcomes for that probability. The things is, that will not give any information that is as useful as just adding up all the outcomes and computing a percentage. If this is just a RNG with a set probability, than we already know the distribution without going through that extra effort.
We also know the low and high range. The low is 0% success. The high is 100%. Those are just insanely improbably for large sample sizes. Again, there is no need to test specifically for that info since math can tell us all that once we have a large enough sample to be confident of our probability that a skinning will result in perfect roe.0 -
smacx250✭✭✭✭✭
That is all true if each trial (skinning) is independent, but some are speculating that they are not. While I'm inclined to think the trials are indeed independent, I wouldn't put it past ZOS to have something in there to correlate trials with other variables - a pure independent RNG may not achieve whatever goals they have (e.g., modern slot machines don't always use independent trials, as other distributions have been shown to be more effective at keeping people feeding in the $$$). For example, they could just keep a ratio of the XP scrolls used to the XP drinks used, and feed that into the roe probability to "auto correct" any imbalance from the desired ratio.DaveMoeDee wrote: »You can't really find a ratio for this, because it's n% per fish, not n% per x number of fish skinned. Each event is independent.
What you'd have to do is have 1,000 different people skin one fish and tabulate the results. If three out of that 1,000 get roe, then your sample success is 0.3%. That's still not a drop rate. That's just a survey of yes over no.
Then you'd have to run 1,000 people many more times to get an observed low-high range. For example, in a sample of 1,000, between 2 and 11 people found one roe off of one fish. Or 0.2 to 1.1%.
Which is a pretty crappy range for something prized and sought after yet worth absolutely nothing to a vendor.
But that's all right. Fishing is a nice, relaxing in-game hobby. And it's strange how Ambrosia is one of the most interesting puzzles in the game so far. In some ways, the search is going to be more fun than actually using it.
You are making this way more complicate than it actually is.
The odds of a particular outcome are universal in this case. Just like flipping a quarter. If it is a balanced quarter, the odds of getting heads are 0.5 or 50%. If I toss twice and get both heads, that does not change the underlying probability to 1.0. The sample size is too low for us to say much about the probability in that case.
To figure out the unknown probability of an even, we need a large sample. It does not matter if the sample is all from a single person or from multiple people. The same goes for perfect roe since each skinning is an independent even with a set probability of getting the row.
Now, your approach of using multiple people can get you additional information. What it would show is the distribution of outcomes for that probability. The things is, that will not give any information that is as useful as just adding up all the outcomes and computing a percentage. If this is just a RNG with a set probability, than we already know the distribution without going through that extra effort.
We also know the low and high range. The low is 0% success. The high is 100%. Those are just insanely improbably for large sample sizes. Again, there is no need to test specifically for that info since math can tell us all that once we have a large enough sample to be confident of our probability that a skinning will result in perfect roe.
Edited by smacx250 on August 4, 2015 6:23PM0
