I suspect it is because another well established and popular mmo went free to play on Steam the same week

I am not going to say that the game is dying --- and as long as I can still have fun, I will play it, because I have been playing Elder Scrolls since the release of Arena.

But, the game did take a hard hit ... not going to use Steam, although I do log in via Steam.... but, instead, use the 3 active guilds I am in. One has dropped from 305 people to 48, as of last night. A second one, had multiple chapters, and is now in the process of moving people from the upper numbered chapters to lower numbered ones. And the third has been actively recruiting, so while our numbers there have only dropped a small amount, the average level and experience rating, there, is way down....... almost all of the top end people have gone.

Also, every other Youtube ad I am seeing is for ESO --- and I am suddenly seeing them all over Facebook ---
And many friends I have from other MMO's who don't want to, and have never played, ESO are noting the huge increase in ads..... so ZOS is definitely stepping up advertising.... take that as you will.

The other interesting thing is that I have friends in other guilds.... many of whom were not taking new members a month ago, as they were full, and are now spam messaging me, begging me to join them.... one even noted that it was at risk of beginning to lose Guild privileges. So, yeah, we are not changing overall numbers that much, but we are definitely losing the formerly dedicated players..... and for a while, the "oh look, new shiney" crowd may keep the numbers up.... but many of those do NOT stay.

I am in an odd position, because I have only actively played since January, due to not having hardware that could run the game, but I have been an active lurker for a LONG time... because I was playing Daggerfall, Arena, Oblivion, and Morrowind on a very regular basis, and had been listening in the forums as I have WANTED to be here.

I am also pretty active on Discord .... and the groups, there, that routinely had 100+ people chatting daily about this game, are now seeing numbers in the 20's and 30's.....
A bunch of the planned midweek Wednesday raids that were common, were cancelled last night, due to not having enough experienced players on to host them.

So, in my opinion, and I say this with 8 years having worked at NSA, and having had analyst training there... as well, as having worked as a Market Analyst for some time, and having had a hand in some Sales Depts, as well...... we are seeing the normal rush of new players that pops in after any expansion drop. And High Isle was hyped quite a bit......
ESO has always had great videos...... so no surprise.

Now, with as sweeping as some of these changes have been, it's pretty safe to assume that some of this was done at the time U34 dropped - and they held off to get the sales. That means they knew they would take the hit ..... my hope, here, is that they do have a plan, and due to business constraints, cannot release a lot to the public. My fear is that they didn't have a solid plan, and are now in damage control..... which means that numbers you see online may be bots being used to bolster their participation rates for their shareholders while they scramble to mitigate the issue..... and sadly, the hard walk back during PTS does not lend itself to hope.

What I do know, and what is hard to get solid data on, is that, the number of experienced players in the zones are dropping, and we are seeing more and more new player questions.

I play every night after work, as I have a rough schedule, and my free time is pretty much limited to times that most businesses aren't open.... so I go online....... and I am seeing MUCH more new player interaction than I was seeing just a month ago.

Auldwulfe

(edited to clarify some statements)

I play mostly in the evenings, PC\NA EST and each night this week my home zone of N. Elsweyr has been very busy.
Last night shockingly so, both the crafting area and dragon fights were claustrophobic lol.
High Isle also, a LOT of ppl at vents and WBs.
I have no idea why as I'd expected much quieter zones, especially during weeknights when it's not terribly busy.

"Dying Game" more like Dramatic Hyperbole

Tenthirty2 wrote: »

I play mostly in the evenings, PC\NA EST and each night this week my home zone of N. Elsweyr has been very busy.
Last night shockingly so, both the crafting area and dragon fights were claustrophobic lol.
High Isle also, a LOT of ppl at vents and WBs.
I have no idea why as I'd expected much quieter zones, especially during weeknights when it's not terribly busy.

"Dying Game" more like Dramatic Hyperbole

Not saying it's dying... but what I am seeing is a huge influx of new players, but an almost equal amount of exodus of older players .... usually, after an expansion, you get a boost, and then a lot of the new people drift off to the new shiney on sale, or with a expansion..... but this time, there is enough exodus of the dedicated players, that it is mitigating that new shiney boost ....
Hence why I noted some the stuff above --- the real problem is that I do not have enough experience to guide a new band of people in most of the dungeons.... I have only done a few, and most, only once. Sadly, with the changes to Templar, my Templar tank is finding it difficult to get into PUG dungeons, as I have had people tell me that I won't be an asset, and asked me to go.
Mind you, I don't use any of the specific skills they nerfed... but the sentiment, right now, is "templar bad",..... so I am NOT getting the experience to guide new players. And most, if not all, of the ones that had experience have left.

So, yeah, the numbers are ok, right now..... but we are going into an area where, when the new people want to expand, there won't be the old hands that can give advice .... meaning that these new players are going to have to jump into the grind on a game with hundreds of craftable sets, hundreds of overland sets, and so on.... and without the option of even getting a good tutorial.

It isn't that it's dying... but we know that with U36, there are going to be patches to the patch that was supposed to patch the previous patches...... and no one to help the people that haven't experience that, before.

Auldwulfe

Steam is not the 100% deal as a few already mentioned. But it gives a decent indication of how the general state of a game is.

When a game is popular, steamcharts go up, when it gets less popular, it sinks down.

My go to indicator is: all guilds having less members and less active members. Dungeonqueues going up. Empty Cyrodiil. Friends not coming online anymore or just fully quitting. Empty Craglorn and more. If one has Eyes, he can see change.

Normal player drop for this time of year. They will come back, they always do.

I dont play ESO through Steam. Just because Steam numbers go down, that is not enough information to draw any conclusions.



and just out of curiosity... I have never understood posts that claim a game is " dying "... as if the poster had real information gathered from interviewing all the players. Whats the point ? Why not say ' I dont like this aspect of the game ' or ' I think this aspect can be improved ' ?

Whats the point of claiming the sky is falling ?

Tandor wrote: »

I'd be surprised if Steam logins accounted for more than 10% of PC players, who in turn are believed to account for about a third of the overall playerbase. Any moving trends in the Steam charts don't really tell us anything about the state of the game.

Ever heard of sampling? Saying a sample don’t work, you should at least explain why and how it’s biased.

As I noted, the game is getting players, albeit the numbers are down.... where it is going to hurt is in the future, when the people that swung by with the hype for a new expansion go off to the next new expansion in another game, and the remainder that joined are looking for experienced people to give them guidance.

I am in a guild, that 2 weeks ago had 331 members. We did a Midweek Run every Wednesday Night, and we always tried to bring in new people and help them out ... I was fairly new, and was getting up to speed, but am not in a position to run any of these, yet.....

As of last night - Wednesday night - the guild membership is at 48.
The rest have quit over the last 2 weeks --- our discord channel, which usually has a minimum of 60 people on it, at a time, and sometimes well over 100, had 13 last night. And of those, only 7 wanted to log in....

We cancelled the runs - we didn't have enough bodies, and NO ONE with enough experience to explain the mechanics for the rest ..... that is what is dying, here.

We are losing the experienced players that actually cared enough to teach... they have update fatigue, and are the ones that are quitting.
So, yes, the game will not Die, so to say..... but it is going to be a while before anyone gets back up.... I guess that lowered the ceiling, by changing the demographic over to less experienced players.

My other guild, with multiple chapters is now consolidating down to fewer - and each, formerly, dedicated person leaving is also a subscription leaving. And since we all KNOW that only a percentage of new players that come in will stay, or subscribe, and that many probably are trying it out due to a sale... well, let's hope enough stay to cover the costs of the servers, and maybe the funding for more expansions and adds..... or we will stagnate, and then die.

Rather than disparage those that are noting that we are hemorrhaging valuable people...... we can look at it as the risk that it is, and hope that things get fixed.

Auldwulfe

LikiLoki wrote: »

Not will discard non-gaming reasons for the online decline that are not related to the update. For example: climate - drought season, holiday season, politics - microsoft has disconnected 2 countries from gaining new players, new game hits are gaining popularity, the semiconductor crisis in the world 2022 - the time limit for updating the server has been pushed back. All together gives a bad effect.

I agree with that - but it does seem odd that those are affecting more of the people in guilds and who have been around for a while, presumably with the hardware, already, to play the game.

I am concerned with the talent loss, as opposed to the body loss ..... there will be new players, and returning players.... but if we lose that talent, then it's more of a struggle for everyone, and creates the issues that will lead to those other players leaving,

Auldwulfe

Auldwulfe wrote: »

Tenthirty2 wrote: »

I play mostly in the evenings, PC\NA EST and each night this week my home zone of N. Elsweyr has been very busy.
Last night shockingly so, both the crafting area and dragon fights were claustrophobic lol.
High Isle also, a LOT of ppl at vents and WBs.
I have no idea why as I'd expected much quieter zones, especially during weeknights when it's not terribly busy.

"Dying Game" more like Dramatic Hyperbole

Not saying it's dying... but what I am seeing is a huge influx of new players, but an almost equal amount of exodus of older players .... usually, after an expansion, you get a boost, and then a lot of the new people drift off to the new shiney on sale, or with a expansion..... but this time, there is enough exodus of the dedicated players, that it is mitigating that new shiney boost ....
Hence why I noted some the stuff above --- the real problem is that I do not have enough experience to guide a new band of people in most of the dungeons.... I have only done a few, and most, only once. Sadly, with the changes to Templar, my Templar tank is finding it difficult to get into PUG dungeons, as I have had people tell me that I won't be an asset, and asked me to go.
Mind you, I don't use any of the specific skills they nerfed... but the sentiment, right now, is "templar bad",..... so I am NOT getting the experience to guide new players. And most, if not all, of the ones that had experience have left.

So, yeah, the numbers are ok, right now..... but we are going into an area where, when the new people want to expand, there won't be the old hands that can give advice .... meaning that these new players are going to have to jump into the grind on a game with hundreds of craftable sets, hundreds of overland sets, and so on.... and without the option of even getting a good tutorial.

It isn't that it's dying... but we know that with U36, there are going to be patches to the patch that was supposed to patch the previous patches...... and no one to help the people that haven't experience that, before.

Auldwulfe

I am sorry about your Templar, they got hit very hard and worse now you seem stuck having to put up with the generalized stigma.
I'm feeling the same with my magsorc. And it's not just her DPS, it feels like everything has been crippled. Damage mitigation, attack feel and flow, things like a delay with heavy attacks and yet I STILL have skills on her and other characters that will not fire when they should. They feel like they get "stuck" and it's the most frustrating feeling.-
I'm wondering if I just need to go back to the days of rapid-mashing buttons just to get skills to work.

TBH what concerns me much more than player numbers going forward is that these change decisions went live. Like there is a person or people there that put these changes in motion thinking "Yes, these are good ideas..."
Like, WHAT.

I agree it sucks to see veteran players go, the knowledge and skills they take with them will leave a bit of a vacuum for a time.
But that's the way with all things really? Old moves on and new rise to replace what was lost.
Just means more "mid-tier" players will have to step up to become the next mentors.

And some may return, especially if ZoS reverts or corrects some of this mess. Anyone who has stuck with the game for years through all the ups and downs may be more inclined to return if corrections are implemented.

Even if not, remember that once upon a time when the ESO world was new, so-to-speak, there were no mentors and everyone was new.
Knowledge won't ever be lost just because there isn't someone there to readily impart it. It can be discovered again and shared, carrying it forward.

Those figures tells about players using ESO via Steam (and on a side note, there are cycles: in 2019 it was even less than now). They are far away from global ESO figures.
Think about it: 15 millions ESO copies in 2020... here we see numbers in range of 15k... A droplet in the ocean... Nothing concrete can be taken out of those re health of the game.

On my opinion, those figures reflect the known fact that many ESO users were unsatisfied playing ESO via Steam and did quit Steam in order to play ESO as a standalone. Alone in this forum, there were many - many - threads about the issue.

I doubt that a single update is capable of immediately killing a game, especially if a game is popular enough. It may set a consequences, but you won't see a drop of online in half immediately. But if ZoS is going to release lackluster content and updates like this on a regular basis, it may die in 3-4 years for real.

Regarding Steam, obviously that only ZoS has the data on the online and they won't share it with us under any circumstances. But downplaying the steam population seems like copium, considering that ESO was published on steam just a few months after release and the game has been there for 8 years already. I doubt that players from launch consist of any meaningful part of online at this point. But ignoring the largest PC marketplace that is used probably by anyone who plays video games? Anyway, as i said we don't have any data and ZoS won't share it with us.

What's more important, there are no reasons to think that Steam players are somewhat different from other players, i haven't experienced any issues with steam version for like 4 years and i haven't heard about any mass issues with it over this span, so definitely there are no any "mass exodus of only Steam players''. But the sample size is big enough to extrapolate the data on the whole online. And even if it's not precise in absolute values, it can give you pretty accurate percent numbers. If the game lost 20% on steam then it's pretty safe to say that it lost 20% of players overall.