Dagoth_Rac wrote: »You get either jewelry or weapon from final boss. So that immediately cuts your odds of a shield in half due to the jewelry/weapon split.
There are 13 weapons including shield.
There are 3 sets in dungeon.
13 * 3 = 39
Cut in half because you might get jewelry = 1 in (39 * 2) = 1 in 78 chance = 1.28% chance of getting Noble Duelist Shield
100 - 1.28 = 98.72% chance of not getting Noble Duelist shield
0.9872 ^ 4 = ~95% chance of 4 people not getting Noble Duelist shield on a single run
0.95 ^ 20 = ~36% chance of not getting a Noble Duelist shield amongst 4 people over 20 runs.
So, you had a little bit of bad luck. It was more likely that you would get item than not get item. But 36% is not like some 1 in a million unicorn occurrence.
static_recharge wrote: »Dagoth_Rac wrote: »You get either jewelry or weapon from final boss. So that immediately cuts your odds of a shield in half due to the jewelry/weapon split.
There are 13 weapons including shield.
There are 3 sets in dungeon.
13 * 3 = 39
Cut in half because you might get jewelry = 1 in (39 * 2) = 1 in 78 chance = 1.28% chance of getting Noble Duelist Shield
100 - 1.28 = 98.72% chance of not getting Noble Duelist shield
0.9872 ^ 4 = ~95% chance of 4 people not getting Noble Duelist shield on a single run
0.95 ^ 20 = ~36% chance of not getting a Noble Duelist shield amongst 4 people over 20 runs.
So, you had a little bit of bad luck. It was more likely that you would get item than not get item. But 36% is not like some 1 in a million unicorn occurrence.
This math is a little off. Why cut the chance in half just because jewellery are in the mix? Your chances are based off of the total loot pool. Ergo 13 weapons + 2 jewelry options = 15 items.
Multiply by the number of sets:
15 * 3 = 45 total different items
Chance of not getting the Noble Duelist Shield:
44 / 45 =~ 97.8%
Chance of not getting the shield across all 4 group members:
97.8% ^ 4 =~ 91.4%
Chance of getting the shield from any group member per run:
100% - 91.4% =~ 8.6%
Every time you go in you have roughly an 8.6% chance of finding the Nobels Duelist Shield between all group members.
To extrapolate across your 20 ish tries at getting it:
91.4% ^ 20 =~ 16.6% chance of not getting it
100% - 16.6% = 83.4% chance of getting it after 20 attempts between all 4 group members.
Remember that this is just chance and probability. Even after 100 attempts there is no guarantee that it'll drop. The number I'd use is the one per run, 8.6%.
static_recharge wrote: »Dagoth_Rac wrote: »You get either jewelry or weapon from final boss. So that immediately cuts your odds of a shield in half due to the jewelry/weapon split.
There are 13 weapons including shield.
There are 3 sets in dungeon.
13 * 3 = 39
Cut in half because you might get jewelry = 1 in (39 * 2) = 1 in 78 chance = 1.28% chance of getting Noble Duelist Shield
100 - 1.28 = 98.72% chance of not getting Noble Duelist shield
0.9872 ^ 4 = ~95% chance of 4 people not getting Noble Duelist shield on a single run
0.95 ^ 20 = ~36% chance of not getting a Noble Duelist shield amongst 4 people over 20 runs.
So, you had a little bit of bad luck. It was more likely that you would get item than not get item. But 36% is not like some 1 in a million unicorn occurrence.
This math is a little off. Why cut the chance in half just because jewellery are in the mix? Your chances are based off of the total loot pool. Ergo 13 weapons + 2 jewelry options = 15 items.
Multiply by the number of sets:
15 * 3 = 45 total different items
Chance of not getting the Noble Duelist Shield:
44 / 45 =~ 97.8%
Chance of not getting the shield across all 4 group members:
97.8% ^ 4 =~ 91.4%
Chance of getting the shield from any group member per run:
100% - 91.4% =~ 8.6%
Every time you go in you have roughly an 8.6% chance of finding the Nobels Duelist Shield between all group members.
To extrapolate across your 20 ish tries at getting it:
91.4% ^ 20 =~ 16.6% chance of not getting it
100% - 16.6% = 83.4% chance of getting it after 20 attempts between all 4 group members.
Remember that this is just chance and probability. Even after 100 attempts there is no guarantee that it'll drop. The number I'd use is the one per run, 8.6%.
No, his math is right. Because before there is drop chance to weapons, there is 50% it is jewelry. Your math is wrong because you don't take this high jewelry drop rate into account...
static_recharge wrote: »static_recharge wrote: »Dagoth_Rac wrote: »You get either jewelry or weapon from final boss. So that immediately cuts your odds of a shield in half due to the jewelry/weapon split.
There are 13 weapons including shield.
There are 3 sets in dungeon.
13 * 3 = 39
Cut in half because you might get jewelry = 1 in (39 * 2) = 1 in 78 chance = 1.28% chance of getting Noble Duelist Shield
100 - 1.28 = 98.72% chance of not getting Noble Duelist shield
0.9872 ^ 4 = ~95% chance of 4 people not getting Noble Duelist shield on a single run
0.95 ^ 20 = ~36% chance of not getting a Noble Duelist shield amongst 4 people over 20 runs.
So, you had a little bit of bad luck. It was more likely that you would get item than not get item. But 36% is not like some 1 in a million unicorn occurrence.
This math is a little off. Why cut the chance in half just because jewellery are in the mix? Your chances are based off of the total loot pool. Ergo 13 weapons + 2 jewelry options = 15 items.
Multiply by the number of sets:
15 * 3 = 45 total different items
Chance of not getting the Noble Duelist Shield:
44 / 45 =~ 97.8%
Chance of not getting the shield across all 4 group members:
97.8% ^ 4 =~ 91.4%
Chance of getting the shield from any group member per run:
100% - 91.4% =~ 8.6%
Every time you go in you have roughly an 8.6% chance of finding the Nobels Duelist Shield between all group members.
To extrapolate across your 20 ish tries at getting it:
91.4% ^ 20 =~ 16.6% chance of not getting it
100% - 16.6% = 83.4% chance of getting it after 20 attempts between all 4 group members.
Remember that this is just chance and probability. Even after 100 attempts there is no guarantee that it'll drop. The number I'd use is the one per run, 8.6%.
No, his math is right. Because before there is drop chance to weapons, there is 50% it is jewelry. Your math is wrong because you don't take this high jewelry drop rate into account...
Ok. Where does it state this? Not being rude, sincerely want to know.