The Undaunted Chests ARE Rigged

KingMagaw · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Problem is only impen and divines are good for shoulder slots because this is the way the game is engineered. Sturdy is only good on some pieces. I used over 72+ keys on the first day and saved 5 shoulders and 2 of them were sturdy. 36 days farming undaunted dailies for 3 BiS shoulders. There was even some pieces i didnt even get because of the multiples of the same set.

Deilta was correct in his statement that casual players get the shaft.

You clearly want players spending more time farming for the equipment than playing with the said equipment, most likely because PvP is still a joke with broken skills, bugged sets and blatant cheating using 3rd party programs.

SublimeSparo · October 2016

@ZOS_RichLambert can you make some pretty graphs of my maelstrom rewards from the chest just for the lolz, i'm still convinced sharpened is not in my loot table for the chest

Niaver · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Why, why would we need training on end-game gear? I just don't get it.

Yolokin_Swagonborn · October 2016

Niaver wrote: »

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Why, why would we need training on end-game gear? I just don't get it.

Did you read that last line that Rich said? "RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls." Sounds like he is admitting that he sees training as a "bad roll." What is more important than the data at this point is ZOS's design philosophy.

@ZOS_RichLambert Can you come out and say that having universally bad rolls (as opposed to potentially non-optimal rolls) is part of your design philosophy?

That you want us to scream in joy and in anguish? Because that is what it sounds like.

Training/prosperous isn't a "Good roll" for ANYONE. At least with other traits there is someone out there who could use it for something. If every trait drops at 12.5%, are you counting on people deconstructing at least a quarter of their drops?

Is this an intentional "key sink?"

leepalmer95 · October 2016

Deltia wrote: »

I've been exposed.....I really like the gear system, gear trading, relevant drops in dungeons etc, but I still think these two traits have little to add to the game. No I don't want BiS gear in two days, but something that would benefit us more. Heck even a visual trait that makes you glow purple would be more beneficial than training for me.

However, thanks for showing data and being transparent about what's going on. This is leadership that we need, data, not emotions (like my own). But hey, it was a funny video right?

After farming 250 keys over 2 months you should have BiS shoulders. And not have random RNg involved with 2 random traits which are useless.

Funkopotamus · October 2016

Rohamad_Ali wrote: »

Just another reason to avoid those dungeons . When they remove training from cp 160 loot tables I will participate then . No longer be playing my character without optimal gear!

^^Fixed for you.

I understand that the RNG is a PITA with training and prosperous traits, but some of those head/shoulder sets are key items in most builds. To totally avoid trying to get them is only hurting yourself AND your group members if you intended to run trials and even PvP.

At least it is not gear progression like some other MMO's. Gamers today act so entitled it is kind of sad. Just because we run a dungeon and get a key should not mean we get the EXACT item we want with the EXACT trait we are after.

raidentenshu_ESO · October 2016

Niaver wrote: »

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Why, why would we need training on end-game gear? I just don't get it.

Because ZOS likes to troll on us.

Thrasher91604 · October 2016

@ZOS_RichLambert how did you get the data for their drops?

Erasure · October 2016

Look on the bright side gents, the CP Cap is going up so fast that those Training items may help us stay on top of it!

Wait...

Cazic · October 2016

Obviously theres a higher chance to get a bad trait vs a good one. They wsnt everyone to repeat the content until they get what they wsnt.

There's a chance you'll get the perfect item first try. But there's a higher chance you'll get an undesirable item for your first 5 tries.

I woildnt call this rigged. It's by design.

leepalmer95 · October 2016

Cazic wrote: »

Obviously theres a higher chance to get a bad trait vs a good one. They wsnt everyone to repeat the content until they get what they wsnt.

There's a chance you'll get the perfect item first try. But there's a higher chance you'll get an undesirable item for your first 5 tries.

I woildnt call this rigged. It's by design.

Bad Design*

Cazic · October 2016

leepalmer95 wrote: »

Cazic wrote: »

Obviously theres a higher chance to get a bad trait vs a good one. They wsnt everyone to repeat the content until they get what they wsnt.

There's a chance you'll get the perfect item first try. But there's a higher chance you'll get an undesirable item for your first 5 tries.

I woildnt call this rigged. It's by design.

Bad Design*

That's subjective. But either way, there are no surprises here.

Enigmatic · October 2016

@ZOS_RichLambert I had such high hopes that training gear was going to be limited to just the starter islands after your PAX video where you said:

“So everyone knows, if you want training gear go to the starter islands. If you want training gear, go to the starter islands”

https://streamable.com/jday

Beyond me why you think people who are doing undaunted pledges need training or prosperous gear. Same goes for running Vet ICP or Vet WGT trying to get Scathing Mage or Spell Power Cure. Charts and graphs are nice but it doesn't explain why these traits are rewarded for doing the content

MalakithAlamahdi · October 2016

Opened 15 chests, and only 2 didn't have the prosperous trait on them. I think i'll safe them for a little longer.

Ch4mpTW · October 2016

Thanks for the data @ZOS_RichLambert as it was much appreciated. It was pretty insightful, and made me a bit happy to see that the devs do care about trying to rationalize things with their player base. Kudos.

Mojmir · October 2016

hey look I can pull up pictures just like mr. Lambert

raidentenshu_ESO · October 2016

Mojmir wrote: »

hey look I can pull up pictures just like mr. Lambert

I wonder if those 12 people that voted yes are ZOS in disguised?

Dorrino · October 2016

I see people keep asking questions "Why do we need Prosperous and Training traits on the end game gear?" and desperately try to explain ZOS that these traits are useless.

Yes, you all are correct. They are useless in a sense they are the same are having no trait at all. So why would ZOS even have them there? And the answer is actually quite simple.

If you remember, a number of patches ago monster shoulders from chests, VMA/VDSA weapons, monster helms etc did not even drop with 100% chance. You had a chance of getting those in a random trait and otherwise you got nothing. Should i remind you that 'helm farm' runs were at first just to get ANY helm at all. I personally did 44 runs of vet COH to get a well-fitted Nerien'eth helm and oh boy i was happy.

Now what they did they HUGELY increased the availability of all these items. And the only real reason to have some of them in useless traits is to let you have something instead of nothing as it was before. They decided that shoulders in useless trait is way better than no shoulders at all. You still can deconstruct them and get some gold out of it. It is still a reward albeit a rather cheap one.

On the other hand if you do not have any shoulders of this particular monster set, having those in a useless trait is immensely better than having no shoulders at all. You can still use them and get the bonuses.

You might ask, why would we need RNG there at all? Why wouldn't ZOS just replace random drops with tokens, so you could easily exchange those for the items you need? I think that discussion of this concept deserves a thread of its own:) As one of the obvious reasons i can say that if you were able to get your desired items in desired traits in a controlled and rather small amount of time - that would drastically reduce the number of people doing the content that drops these items. Would you do pledges if you already got BiS monster pieces?

Anyways, there IS a reason behind most balance decisions. And 95% time this reason is to make the game more fun for you and more profitable for ZOS (the other 5% are miscalculations and plain bugs). ZOS wants you to love their game, otherwise you stop paying their salaries. Non of the cash-grabs work in the long run if people don't have fun.

How is farming for BiS trait armor piece fun? It is not, but it is a social activity and it's engaging enough for you to participate. You're motivated enough to actually play the game for this particular reward. And other players have you there doing dungeons, playing the game. You populate the world:) That's enough.

Omgwtfbbq321 · October 2016

If it really is rigged, I would assume it's because of the same mentality they have for things like the Maelstrom Arena. If you got what you were looking for easily, then there would be no reason to re-run the content as much.

Just a lazy way to add longevity to the game I guess.

Cazic · October 2016

Dorrino wrote: »

I see people keep asking questions "Why do we need Prosperous and Training traits on the end game gear?" and desperately try to explain ZOS that these traits are useless.

Yes, you all are correct. They are useless in a sense they are the same are having no trait at all. So why would ZOS even have them there? And the answer is actually quite simple.

If you remember, a number of patches ago monster shoulders from chests, VMA/VDSA weapons, monster helms etc did not even drop with 100% chance. You had a chance of getting those in a random trait and otherwise you got nothing. Should i remind you that 'helm farm' runs were at first just to get ANY helm at all. I personally did 44 runs of vet COH to get a well-fitted Nerien'eth helm and oh boy i was happy.

Now what they did they HUGELY increased the availability of all these items. And the only real reason to have some of them in useless traits is to let you have something instead of nothing as it was before. They decided that shoulders in useless trait is way better than no shoulders at all. You still can deconstruct them and get some gold out of it. It is still a reward albeit a rather cheap one.

On the other hand if you do not have any shoulders of this particular monster set, having those in a useless trait is immensely better than having no shoulders at all. You can still use them and get the bonuses.

You might ask, why would we need RNG there at all? Why wouldn't ZOS just replace random drops with tokens, so you could easily exchange those for the items you need? I think that discussion of this concept deserves a thread of its own:) As one of the obvious reasons i can say that if you were able to get your desired items in desired traits in a controlled and rather small amount of time - that would drastically reduce the number of people doing the content that drops these items. Would you do pledges if you already got BiS monster pieces?

Anyways, there IS a reason behind most balance decisions. And 95% time this reason is to make the game more fun for you and more profitable for ZOS (the other 5% are miscalculations and plain bugs). ZOS wants you to love their game, otherwise you stop paying their salaries. Non of the cash-grabs work in the long run if people don't have fun.

How is farming for BiS trait armor piece fun? It is not, but it is a social activity and it's engaging enough for you to participate. You're motivated enough to actually play the game for this particular reward. And other players have you there doing dungeons, playing the game. You populate the world:) That's enough.

QFT

Bryanonymous · October 2016

I got two prosperous in a row yesterday. If the chart is accurate, the odds of this happening were 1.5%.

AzraelKrieg · October 2016

Thrasher91604 wrote: »

@ZOS_RichLambert how did you get the data for their drops?

Deltia made a video showcasing all the drops he got from the 250 keys he saved.

code65536 · October 2016

Yolokin_Swagonborn wrote: »

Did you read that last line that Rich said? "RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls." Sounds like he is admitting that he sees training as a "bad roll." What is more important than the data at this point is ZOS's design philosophy.

@ZOS_RichLambert Can you come out and say that having universally bad rolls (as opposed to potentially non-optimal rolls) is part of your design philosophy?

That you want us to scream in joy and in anguish? Because that is what it sounds like.

Training/prosperous isn't a "Good roll" for ANYONE. At least with other traits there is someone out there who could use it for something. If every trait drops at 12.5%, are you counting on people deconstructing at least a quarter of their drops?

Of course it's a bad roll. And I doubt anyone at ZOS is deluded enough to think otherwise.

But you know what is an even worse roll than Training and Prosperous? Getting nothing. It was only months ago that 50% of the time, your reward from a gold-key pledge was just that: nothing. And 90% of the time, your reward from a silver-key pledge was nothing. In contrast, Training and Prosperous, which are still better than nothing, put together drop only 25% of the time.

It's a bad roll, yes, but it's a better-than-nothing roll. At least you have something that you can wear in the interim while you wait to get a better piece. You'll lose out on the 0.8% crit chance (if you're using Divines+Shadow in PvE), but you get the set bonuses. It means you can play with the set, try it out, see how it works, feels, etc. And in some cases, that 2p bonus is good enough that it's worth the hit of a bad trait. In the grander scheme of things, a couple of bad traits isn't going to matter. Yes, it's not ideal, but losing <1% DPS to one bad trait means you still have over 99% of your DPS. Do people remember the days when shoulders and helms were so hard to get that just getting any piece was considered to be good by some? These days, instead of complaining about getting nothing, people complain that their trait isn't BiS.

I'm no fan of Training and esp. not Prosperous (even Impenetrable is better than it for maximizing net gold while mob grinding), and I have no intention of defending either of these traits. But compared to what it used to be like, it's much easier (even trivially easy now) to get a piece to complete and play with a set. And even for getting a BiS setup, the grind now is less than half of what it used to be.

I'll repost something I wrote in another thread:

code65536 wrote: »

Ah, but do you remember the good old days when a gold key only had a 50% chance at getting a shoulder and a silver key only had a 10% chance?

Back before Dark Brotherhood, a character doing both the normal and vet pledges each day would get, on average, 3 shoulders every 5 days.

Now, a character doing one normal-difficulty pledge and one veteran-difficulty pledge will get 3 keys, each with a 100% chance at a shoulder, for 15 shoulders every 5 days, for a five-fold increase. They could, optionally, get twice that many if they opt for three pledges all at veteran difficulty.

For someone who puts in enough time to do one normal-scaled and one vet-scaled pledge per day (and assuming that they skip half the DLC pledges, for the simplicity of the math and to also account for the greater amount of time needed for the DLC pledges), this is the reward rate that they had at various points in the game's history:
Update 5: 0.6 shoulders/day, 8 sets/chest, 6 traits; on average, once every 240 days (the trait table originally had Infused, Divines, Impenetrable, Reinforced, Well-Fitted, and Sturdy--yes, they had Sturdy in the loot table back when Sturdy just reduced armor degradation; I daresay that's even worse than Training and Prosperous)

Update 7: 0.6 shoulders/day, 10 sets/chest, 5 traits; on average, once every 250 days (Sturdy was removed from the loot table)

Update 10: 1.5 shoulders/day, 10 sets/chest, 7 traits; on average, once every 140 days (Sturdy, Prosperous, and Training were added, Impenetrable was removed, Gold rate now 100% and Silver rate now 50%)

Update 11: 1.5 shoulders/day, 12 sets/chest, 7 traits; on average, once every 168 days

Update 12: 3 shoulders/day, 12 sets/chest, 8 traits; on average, once every 96 days (Impenetrable restored)

Again, these figures are calibrated for 1 normal-difficulty and 1 veteran-difficulty pledge per day (to keep the time investment consistent for comparison purposes), but players now have the option to get up to 6 shoulders/day/character.

To be clear, I don't think Prosperous and Training are useful for endgame content (esp. Prosperous), but when it comes to the question of grindiness, for Monster sets, the vastly amped-up drop rate has more than compensated for the small amount of trait dilution that they've added.

This cannot be said for vMA weapons, though, where the botched trait rebalance meant that we went from 2 out of 3 viable traits to just 1 out of 8. But for monster sets, ZOS has been very generous.

Mojmir · October 2016

actually,getting nothing would be better.at least give me the purple mats instead of a training prosperous drop.

Personofsecrets · October 2016

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

The drop rates are the same as on PTS and they are all equally weighted. Couple quick charts cause I know everyone loves them.

Undaunted Chest results since OneTamriel went live. (NA PC only for time)

...and seeing as @Deltia and his video was called out, here's exactly his breakdown over his 250 keys in the video.

Yeah RNG wasn't kind on the Divines or Training rolls for him, but he got a lot more impen and infused than normal.

Thank you for commenting on the RNG.

runagate · October 2016

KingMagaw wrote: »

36 days farming undaunted dailies for 3 BiS shoulders.

I think that's the fundamental problem.

I have 10 max level characters about to be 12. You know how many Undaunted pledges or rando pug dungeons for the 100k xp in the last 3 months? 3. I just can't be arsed. I'll try it again for the new hats but not because most are useful but because I like the old, creaky animations. The stone fist in the ground on PTS cracked me up.

Most people do NOT have CP way over cap and the chance to do 12 pledges a day with experiences players good enough that this process doesn't take hours. So even in my position I can't be bothered as the RNG is just not worth the time.

It's sort of like the lottery. I've never bought a lottery ticket. You know why? I know statistics.

Curragraigue · October 2016

AzraelKrieg wrote: »

Thrasher91604 wrote: »

@ZOS_RichLambert how did you get the data for their drops?

Deltia made a video showcasing all the drops he got from the 250 keys he saved.

ZOS can see everything that comes in and out of an account's possession it is how they can track items being stolen by hackers. All they had to do was go into Deltia's log of items coming in to get that info. I suspect they saw his video and wanted to check the veracity of it given he has a few players watching his streams.

DHale · October 2016

You can show me all the data you want, I am lean and six sigma black belt IRL. That said, there is no reason why prosperous and training need to be in end game loot tables in the first place. None as in zero.

Mojmir · October 2016

DHale wrote: »

You can show me all the data you want, I am lean and six sigma black belt IRL. That said, there is no reason why prosperous and training need to be in end game loot tables in the first place. None as in zero.

you have a lot of patience then sensei

Dracane · October 2016

I mainly receiced prosperous and training either.
So many people can't be wrong.

Prosperous should be crafter exclusive, like nirnhoned.