Another Well Known Trading Guild Basically bites the Dust

Necrotech_Master · August 5

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.

I believe the argument was that more reward boxes get opened because of the excessive grinding for the limited time pages. So what kind of multiplier would have to have been achieved for this to flood the market with significantly more motifs than previous years? It’s certainly not unusual for players to grind as many reward boxes as possible for every event, The fact that items other than motifs are falling in price would seem to not follow the argument. The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink. Again, how much more farming would cause this? From hearing so many complaints about West Weald I am not sure the number of players farming for themselves would account for that, but perhaps more players who did not buy Gold Road are farming to sell.

We have the Anniversary event every year. We recover from it eventually. If the market recovers in a few months then I guess the argument will be considered valid.

I still believe the news of guild trader changes were enough to cause a market crash ahead of the actual event, combined with everything else. If the market does not recover by the end of the year then I think we could rule out plain saturation.

considering the drop rate of ink for people is anywhere between 0 and 10 per hour, and this is harvesting every node in sight, or approx a harvest every 6-10 seconds (min maxing for it with move speed bonus and auto loot turned on in a dense node region like a starter zone)

multiply that by everyone who wants to use scribing that hasnt already given up already, thats a huge amount of mats being generated

i dont know exactly why other prices are falling, but im pretty sure this has something to do with the 14 day listing period, theres a lot of people that probably are a lot more cautious with it and list at prices to sell, not prices to gouge and the people who have decided to stop trading entirely because they cant understand they need to price to what the current market is at, not what last years market is at and dont want to have to deal with 2 week expirations

Ph1p · August 5

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.
[...]
The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink.

In previous years, changes in combat systems and new (meta) sets always created significant demand with every major update. Players would test new builds, re-gear their toons, and thus buy lots of crafting materials. More often than not, this actually brought more gold into circulation, which would have otherwise sat idle in player banks, thus buoying the entire economy.

Take 2021, for example, and look at the popular sets introduced - back when we also still had 4 new dungeons per year:

Flames of Ambition DLC: Kinras's Wrath, Encratis's Behemoth
Blackwood chapter: Diamond's Victory, Heartland Conqueror
Rockgrove trial: Bahsei's Mania, Sul-Xan's Torment, Saxhleel Champion
Waking Flame DLC: Crimson Oath's Rive, Magma Incarnate

Note how many DD sets this included. This year, we basically have Tarnished Nightmare from the dungeon DLC and Lucent Echoes from the new trial, which are a (initially bugged) PVP and tank set, respectively, with less broad demand. In 2021, other gameplay changes may have generated demand as well, incl. the new CP system, different armor passives, or the armory system.

Maybe things will pick up with the new IA class sets, but so far demand is significantly less than in previous years. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - after all, players also complain when there are too many combat changes. It's just another factor beyond Anniversary event boxes and Luminous Ink farming.

LaintalAy · August 5

edited

katanagirl1 · August 5

Ph1p wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.
[...]
The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink.

In previous years, changes in combat systems and new (meta) sets always created significant demand with every major update. Players would test new builds, re-gear their toons, and thus buy lots of crafting materials. More often than not, this actually brought more gold into circulation, which would have otherwise sat idle in player banks, thus buoying the entire economy.

Take 2021, for example, and look at the popular sets introduced - back when we also still had 4 new dungeons per year:
Flames of Ambition DLC: Kinras's Wrath, Encratis's Behemoth

Blackwood chapter: Diamond's Victory, Heartland Conqueror

Rockgrove trial: Bahsei's Mania, Sul-Xan's Torment, Saxhleel Champion

Waking Flame DLC: Crimson Oath's Rive, Magma Incarnate

Note how many DD sets this included. This year, we basically have Tarnished Nightmare from the dungeon DLC and Lucent Echoes from the new trial, which are a (initially bugged) PVP and tank set, respectively, with less broad demand. In 2021, other gameplay changes may have generated demand as well, incl. the new CP system, different armor passives, or the armory system.

Maybe things will pick up with the new IA class sets, but so far demand is significantly less than in previous years. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - after all, players also complain when there are too many combat changes. It's just another factor beyond Anniversary event boxes and Luminous Ink farming.

We haven’t had a major change in dps gear since Dreadsails came out, though. (Not that I am complaining.). That was over two years ago. So it seems we should have seen a collapse before now if that was the case.

kringled_1 · August 5

katanagirl1 wrote: »

Ph1p wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.
[...]
The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink.

In previous years, changes in combat systems and new (meta) sets always created significant demand with every major update. Players would test new builds, re-gear their toons, and thus buy lots of crafting materials. More often than not, this actually brought more gold into circulation, which would have otherwise sat idle in player banks, thus buoying the entire economy.

Take 2021, for example, and look at the popular sets introduced - back when we also still had 4 new dungeons per year:
Flames of Ambition DLC: Kinras's Wrath, Encratis's Behemoth

Blackwood chapter: Diamond's Victory, Heartland Conqueror

Rockgrove trial: Bahsei's Mania, Sul-Xan's Torment, Saxhleel Champion

Waking Flame DLC: Crimson Oath's Rive, Magma Incarnate

Note how many DD sets this included. This year, we basically have Tarnished Nightmare from the dungeon DLC and Lucent Echoes from the new trial, which are a (initially bugged) PVP and tank set, respectively, with less broad demand. In 2021, other gameplay changes may have generated demand as well, incl. the new CP system, different armor passives, or the armory system.

Maybe things will pick up with the new IA class sets, but so far demand is significantly less than in previous years. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - after all, players also complain when there are too many combat changes. It's just another factor beyond Anniversary event boxes and Luminous Ink farming.

We haven’t had a major change in dps gear since Dreadsails came out, though. (Not that I am complaining.). That was over two years ago. So it seems we should have seen a collapse before now if that was the case.

Last year we had people gearing out new arcanists.
I think this year's Jubilee was unusually generous with mats in some ways, I know I brought in far more perfect roe than I ever have before. And nothing that came with gold road drove large scale materials demand. I suspect multiple other changes over the last year mean there's less money floating around, especially in the pockets of people who are mat poor.

wolfie1.0. · August 5

In the end, it doesn't matter how it happened it just matters that it is happening and players that trade need to adjust.

Desiato · August 5

kringled_1 wrote: »

Last year we had people gearing out new arcanists.
I think this year's Jubilee was unusually generous with mats in some ways, I know I brought in far more perfect roe than I ever have before. And nothing that came with gold road drove large scale materials demand. I suspect multiple other changes over the last year mean there's less money floating around, especially in the pockets of people who are mat poor.

Not just last year, more like over the last year. While other new class introductions have been OP, Arc was next-level in terms of popularity. Though top tier and very casual trial groups may have more variety, most vet trials feature 6-8 Arc dps in my experience. It seems pretty much everyone in the trial community has their stam arc dps.

In the case of the Jubilee event, it wasn't only that it was so rewarding for a longer period of time than normal. It was also that so many players were grinding daily writs on multiple characters for gift boxes, resulting in a lot of surveys.

I understand why players are unhappy about the listing change. There's no benefit to players. But it's not what caused the economy to "crash". The reason prices dropped so quickly after the new chapter launch is because traders had been holding on to inventory during the lull preceding the chapter launch, hoping for a boost in sales and prices. When that didn't happen, they started to dump.

acastanza_ESO · August 5

As I've said before, this is a necessary market correction. Guild's need to bring down their absurdly inflated, insane, guild trader bids and adjust. The problem is the guilds, nothing else.

Ph1p · August 5

katanagirl1 wrote: »

Ph1p wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.
[...]
The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink.

In previous years, changes in combat systems and new (meta) sets always created significant demand with every major update. Players would test new builds, re-gear their toons, and thus buy lots of crafting materials. More often than not, this actually brought more gold into circulation, which would have otherwise sat idle in player banks, thus buoying the entire economy.

Take 2021, for example, and look at the popular sets introduced - back when we also still had 4 new dungeons per year:
Flames of Ambition DLC: Kinras's Wrath, Encratis's Behemoth

Blackwood chapter: Diamond's Victory, Heartland Conqueror

Rockgrove trial: Bahsei's Mania, Sul-Xan's Torment, Saxhleel Champion

Waking Flame DLC: Crimson Oath's Rive, Magma Incarnate

Note how many DD sets this included. This year, we basically have Tarnished Nightmare from the dungeon DLC and Lucent Echoes from the new trial, which are a (initially bugged) PVP and tank set, respectively, with less broad demand. In 2021, other gameplay changes may have generated demand as well, incl. the new CP system, different armor passives, or the armory system.

Maybe things will pick up with the new IA class sets, but so far demand is significantly less than in previous years. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - after all, players also complain when there are too many combat changes. It's just another factor beyond Anniversary event boxes and Luminous Ink farming.

We haven’t had a major change in dps gear since Dreadsails came out, though. (Not that I am complaining.). That was over two years ago. So it seems we should have seen a collapse before now if that was the case.

Maybe, but as @kringled_1 said, 2023 gave us the Arcanist class and Infinite Archive, which probably led to significant (re)-gearing. In 2022, High Isle had 4 popular sets in the trial alone with Whorl of the Depths, Pillager, Pearlescent, and Coral Riptide, plus one of the most popular crafted sets in Order's Wrath. New builds probably also lag the updates a bit, as people need to farm the gear first.

belial5221_ESO · August 5

Every year we recover from anniversary slower and slower.With so many previous items dropping like water,and ppl farming,less people need to buy.Also,the issue was happening before the change to 14 day mail,which came months after event,and is not a issue with actual selling,since people will buy whether 14, 30, or 100 days.The 14 day mail thing is more of a put reasonable prices on things and you'll sell. I'm constantly restocking items in the trade guilds I'm in from sales,and haven't had expired listings yet.

kringled_1 · August 5

Desiato wrote: »

kringled_1 wrote: »

Last year we had people gearing out new arcanists.
I think this year's Jubilee was unusually generous with mats in some ways, I know I brought in far more perfect roe than I ever have before. And nothing that came with gold road drove large scale materials demand. I suspect multiple other changes over the last year mean there's less money floating around, especially in the pockets of people who are mat poor.

Not just last year, more like over the last year. While other new class introductions have been OP, Arc was next-level in terms of popularity. Though top tier and very casual trial groups may have more variety, most vet trials feature 6-8 Arc dps in my experience. It seems pretty much everyone in the trial community has their stam arc dps.

In the case of the Jubilee event, it wasn't only that it was so rewarding for a longer period of time than normal. It was also that so many players were grinding daily writs on multiple characters for gift boxes, resulting in a lot of surveys.

I understand why players are unhappy about the listing change. There's no benefit to players. But it's not what caused the economy to "crash". The reason prices dropped so quickly after the new chapter launch is because traders had been holding on to inventory during the lull preceding the chapter launch, hoping for a boost in sales and prices. When that didn't happen, they started to dump.

At least for me, the listing change doesn't fundamentally change whats going on in the market. But what it does do is make it obvious, much more often, that stuff isn't selling. It underlines the malaise in the market. And it makes for substantially more work in relisting and repricing, more often in a market that feels unrewarding to many.

katanagirl1 · August 5

Ph1p wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

Ph1p wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

So the response to the flagging economy seems to be that the Anniversary event is to blame, according to most of posts here.
[...]
The price of mats is supposedly falling because of more farming for mats for ink.

In previous years, changes in combat systems and new (meta) sets always created significant demand with every major update. Players would test new builds, re-gear their toons, and thus buy lots of crafting materials. More often than not, this actually brought more gold into circulation, which would have otherwise sat idle in player banks, thus buoying the entire economy.

Take 2021, for example, and look at the popular sets introduced - back when we also still had 4 new dungeons per year:
Flames of Ambition DLC: Kinras's Wrath, Encratis's Behemoth

Blackwood chapter: Diamond's Victory, Heartland Conqueror

Rockgrove trial: Bahsei's Mania, Sul-Xan's Torment, Saxhleel Champion

Waking Flame DLC: Crimson Oath's Rive, Magma Incarnate

Note how many DD sets this included. This year, we basically have Tarnished Nightmare from the dungeon DLC and Lucent Echoes from the new trial, which are a (initially bugged) PVP and tank set, respectively, with less broad demand. In 2021, other gameplay changes may have generated demand as well, incl. the new CP system, different armor passives, or the armory system.

Maybe things will pick up with the new IA class sets, but so far demand is significantly less than in previous years. I'm not saying this is a bad thing - after all, players also complain when there are too many combat changes. It's just another factor beyond Anniversary event boxes and Luminous Ink farming.

We haven’t had a major change in dps gear since Dreadsails came out, though. (Not that I am complaining.). That was over two years ago. So it seems we should have seen a collapse before now if that was the case.

Maybe, but as @kringled_1 said, 2023 gave us the Arcanist class and Infinite Archive, which probably led to significant (re)-gearing. In 2022, High Isle had 4 popular sets in the trial alone with Whorl of the Depths, Pillager, Pearlescent, and Coral Riptide, plus one of the most popular crafted sets in Order's Wrath. New builds probably also lag the updates a bit, as people need to farm the gear first.

OK, those are valid points. I did create and gold out an Arcanist but used all of my own mats.

Perhaps it’s just the combination of all these factors, with the listing times being the final straw.

SeaGtGruff · August 5

acastanza_ESO wrote: »

As I've said before, this is a necessary market correction. Guild's need to bring down their absurdly inflated, insane, guild trader bids and adjust. The problem is the guilds, nothing else.

I generally agree with that, except the problem is that guilds have no idea what they can drop their bids to and still be able to win the bidding. Hence, the bids are likely to remain high and come down very slowly as the guilds test the waters so to speak in their attempts to find lower bid amounts which can still win.

spartaxoxo · August 5

kringled_1 wrote: »

Desiato wrote: »

kringled_1 wrote: »

Last year we had people gearing out new arcanists.
I think this year's Jubilee was unusually generous with mats in some ways, I know I brought in far more perfect roe than I ever have before. And nothing that came with gold road drove large scale materials demand. I suspect multiple other changes over the last year mean there's less money floating around, especially in the pockets of people who are mat poor.

Not just last year, more like over the last year. While other new class introductions have been OP, Arc was next-level in terms of popularity. Though top tier and very casual trial groups may have more variety, most vet trials feature 6-8 Arc dps in my experience. It seems pretty much everyone in the trial community has their stam arc dps.

In the case of the Jubilee event, it wasn't only that it was so rewarding for a longer period of time than normal. It was also that so many players were grinding daily writs on multiple characters for gift boxes, resulting in a lot of surveys.

I understand why players are unhappy about the listing change. There's no benefit to players. But it's not what caused the economy to "crash". The reason prices dropped so quickly after the new chapter launch is because traders had been holding on to inventory during the lull preceding the chapter launch, hoping for a boost in sales and prices. When that didn't happen, they started to dump.

At least for me, the listing change doesn't fundamentally change whats going on in the market. But what it does do is make it obvious, much more often, that stuff isn't selling. It underlines the malaise in the market. And it makes for substantially more work in relisting and repricing, more often in a market that feels unrewarding to many.

I agree. I was concerned about deflation on console well before the listing change. It also doesn't seem to have hit us as hard. Gold mats were already pretty cheap. I am hoping the new PvP update and events during Q4 turns stuff around. But, we'll see.

FlopsyPrince · August 6

I am sure some is a "market correction" but some is due to the shorter listing period. Denying that played any role is silly.

kargen27 · August 6

BlueRaven wrote: »

DenverRalphy wrote: »

BlueRaven wrote: »

fall0athboy wrote: »

BlueRaven wrote: »

fall0athboy wrote: »

ElderSmitter wrote: »

fall0athboy wrote: »

ElderSmitter wrote: »

One of my All-Time Favorite Guilds Ankle Biters has put out a notice they are ceasing all Top Tier Raffles and giving up our Spot in Deshaan after Years of being a Staple to Local Buyers. The guild is not going out yet but will no longer Bid on Premium Spots. I was sad to see this upon logging in and checking my mail. Revenue has plummeted for the guild after the Changes made by Zos and the crumbling economy. Sad....

Okay, specifically what changes has ZOS made to "crumble the economy" and specifically how would you "save it"?

You do not know the changes? Read up then please. Many changes have taken place causing the economy to weaken... I am not complaining i have plenty of gold. It is just sad to see this taking place. there is another thread with tons of pages you can read up on it... I do not think there is a decline in players. I see folks everywhere. Best of luck.

I do not know the changes. Tell me them, specifically, please.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8133068/#Comment_8133068

Specifically what thing in Update 42 is causing the economy to weaken? I do not know the economy in this game, I do not know what specifically affected it. Why are you not giving me a straight answer here?

The reason I didn’t specify is because we have a multitude of threads on the subject and I have no wish to derail this thread into another discussion on the significance of those changes.
It’s like participating in a tread about an earthbound meteor, and trying to explain to someone about the existence of gravity. While discussions about gravity were discussed at great length elsewhere.

Understand?

But in a nutshell:

Zos shortened the amount of time items stay on the trader in half and also shorten the amount of time unsold items stay in our mailbox significantly. This has put a lot of financial, inventory, AND “game time” pressure on sellers.
At the same time, zos introduced a super rare ink commodity that requires a lot of farming to find which has increased ore and other crafting materials flooding the market.

With decreased sales and players no longer wishing to participate, all of this has put trading guilds on the back foot. Basically unhappy (and dwindling) guild mates, and lower sales income to secure their regular locations.

That is the tldr version.

But this thread is about the trader guilds dying, not a rehash of what caused it.

The change to listing times and unread mail times had very little, if any at all, effect on the current market trends. It was simply mere coincidence that both happened simultaneously. And many would argue that the downward trend had started long before the change even came into effect.

The listing time only has a noticeable finiancial affect on items listed in the multi-million range. Niche items like furnishing plans that will likely need to be relisted, are a minor annoyance sure. But it's just that, a minor annoyance, no actionable financial impact.

The shorter unread mail times aren't at fault either. Will it take time to get used to? Sure. But really, the only people screaming about it are players who's longest time away from game can be measured in hours, not days, and certainly nowhere close to 14 days. And there's certainly no impact on the economy as a result.

And yet despite that, players will still toe the line and regurgitate the same false propoganda.

So in your opinion it’s just a coincidence that all the trading guilds started failing apart when they put in changes directly targeted to trade guild mechanics and functions.

Got it.

The correction was coming these changes might have accelerated things just a bit but this was going to happen anyway. We enjoyed a good long period of steady price increase. Players were voicing frustration with the rate of increase here in the forums and in the game by changing buying habits. Some started farming for themselves. Players with tons of items in storage seeing the high prices began listing the mass amounts of items they were sitting on and we had a whole series of events that added to the glut of items available from most common items to semi rare items.
I don't know about the other servers but on NA/PC it was inevitable that prices would go off a cliff. It doesn't make sense that the 14 day change would cause a price drop. It should have caused the opposite as sellers became more wary of posting items meaning less supply.
Something else was the catalyst in the price drop. Prices dropped because players are posting less items, that makes no sense. Players are posting less items because prices dropped makes sense for any market in game or otherwise. Trade guilds need to find the new sustainable bids until prices again begin to increase.
In the meantime this is a good time to fill out motif collections and other things.

pklemming · August 6

I post less because I can't be bothered putting an item up twice for double the listing value. Couple this with some of the recent changes, the kind of 'meh' Gold Road and the abomination of combat changes recently introduced(and coming next patch), and I just find other games to play.

It is a cumulation of things, but the 15 day limit did not help me, as I only sell high priced slow selling items. Putting up a 500k items twice, instead of once in a 30 day period, sucks, with no visible game performance from this change. In fact, I am getting more lag issues now, than I did before any of the recent changes, especially the patch that included the power optimisation. I have no idea what they did then, but a lot of us are getting random stuttering in PVE now.. The PVP virus has spread, apparently.

The economy on EU is kind of decimated. Again, a modicum of critical thinking by devs would have anticipated a knock on effect of this change. We even asked for it NOT TO BE CHANGED, but you may as well be shouting in to a void when attempting to get ZoS to listen to feedback.