Nazarousb14_ESO wrote: »Two days ago had a player stand on a node I had been at for sometime, and started dropping a memento with four fire pillars that also had an e interaction. I kept shifting around so he couldn't get an idea where the node actually spawned. For what ever reason this node took an extra long time to respawn, about 20 mins this time. I got it and it had the lead. Taunted the guy for a bit and zoned out.
I am not certain if the extra time to respawn is a indication that it will drop but I find it odd that it had been the normal 2 to 10 mins until he came over and started trying to steal the node, and it dropping.
SeaGtGruff wrote: »Nazarousb14_ESO wrote: »Two days ago had a player stand on a node I had been at for sometime, and started dropping a memento with four fire pillars that also had an e interaction. I kept shifting around so he couldn't get an idea where the node actually spawned. For what ever reason this node took an extra long time to respawn, about 20 mins this time. I got it and it had the lead. Taunted the guy for a bit and zoned out.
I am not certain if the extra time to respawn is a indication that it will drop but I find it odd that it had been the normal 2 to 10 mins until he came over and started trying to steal the node, and it dropping.
I was camped by a node yesterday and had players badgering me, presumably to see if I was actually there or just AFK. Some of them would fire their weapons and skills at me to try to get a reaction, and one guy (who I'd seen earlier posting all-caps comments in zone chat asking people not to take the nodes so others could have a chance to check) came by twice and left some mystery meat at my feet. The second time he did it, I whispered "troll" to him. By the way, I was not looting the node-- I would check it but leave it unlooted-- but then like as not the first person to come along would take it and run off. Anyone who had wanted to stick around to see if I ever moved could have watched me loot the Runestone node when it appeared nearby, or kill the alligator by the node, or swim across the river to loot the ore node over there after I'd checked the water node I was camped by. Eventually I started activating my memento that calls up a little light that circles around me from head to foot so I can see in dark places, obtained in Deshaan from Almalexia, to show people that I wasn't some bot or whatever.
FinrodMacBeorn wrote: »With a drop rate of 1% and an average respawn rate of 3 min (just educated guesses), the average time to get the lead would be 100x3 min = 5 h - if you just camp a single node and do something else while keeping an eye on your char to let the time not be a complete waste.
A drop rate of 1% has an average number of attempts (50-50 chance) of 70, not 100.
FinrodMacBeorn wrote: »FinrodMacBeorn wrote: »With a drop rate of 1% and an average respawn rate of 3 min (just educated guesses), the average time to get the lead would be 100x3 min = 5 h - if you just camp a single node and do something else while keeping an eye on your char to let the time not be a complete waste.
A drop rate of 1% has an average number of attempts (50-50 chance) of 70, not 100.
Nope. Geometric distribution. Mean value = 1/sucess probability. So 1%=1/100 --> 100.
(e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution)
Dear Honorable Secretary of Shadowfen Nodes,
I would very much like to schedule an appointment with a water related node. If possible, I would like to schedule an hour with the node. Please respond at your earliest convenience.
Respectfully Yours,
Dojo
furiouslog wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Saucy_Jack wrote: »Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?
There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.
Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.
Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:
The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.
ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.
Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.
So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.
So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.
I could not disagree more. The node limits and toxicity are a symptom of player urgency, but making someone sit there for more than 20 hours mindlessly doing the most boring thing in the game is just straight up player punishment.furiouslog wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Saucy_Jack wrote: »Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?
There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.
Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.
Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:
The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.
ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.
Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.
So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.
So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.
I could not disagree more. The node limits and toxicity are a symptom of player urgency, but making someone sit there for more than 20 hours mindlessly doing the most boring thing in the game is just straight up player punishment. That time requirement will not change much after the node limits settle down, not until the zone is just empty. Why even make it that way? It's madness.
Nobody is making players do twenty hours straight anything in the game. Players are doing that all on their own because they want to. They could be off doing trials, PvP, new quests or any number of things. Because they want to be among the first to get the drop they choose to sit on a node. That is their choice.
I've already explained why you're wrong, unless you're just taking the logically pointless stance of "well no one is making them play the game in the first place," which essentially negates the entire point of the discussion.
I assure you, no one "wants" to be doing this unbelievably boring and mindless task. They are choosing to do it because it's a condition of further participation in their in-game activities of interest given considerable sunk costs, which is not the same thing as wanting to do it. I don't understand why you can't seem to grasp that concept.
SeaGtGruff wrote: »Nazarousb14_ESO wrote: »Two days ago had a player stand on a node I had been at for sometime, and started dropping a memento with four fire pillars that also had an e interaction. I kept shifting around so he couldn't get an idea where the node actually spawned. For what ever reason this node took an extra long time to respawn, about 20 mins this time. I got it and it had the lead. Taunted the guy for a bit and zoned out.
I am not certain if the extra time to respawn is a indication that it will drop but I find it odd that it had been the normal 2 to 10 mins until he came over and started trying to steal the node, and it dropping.
I was camped by a node yesterday and had players badgering me, presumably to see if I was actually there or just AFK. Some of them would fire their weapons and skills at me to try to get a reaction, and one guy (who I'd seen earlier posting all-caps comments in zone chat asking people not to take the nodes so others could have a chance to check) came by twice and left some mystery meat at my feet. The second time he did it, I whispered "troll" to him. By the way, I was not looting the node-- I would check it but leave it unlooted-- but then like as not the first person to come along would take it and run off. Anyone who had wanted to stick around to see if I ever moved could have watched me loot the Runestone node when it appeared nearby, or kill the alligator by the node, or swim across the river to loot the ore node over there after I'd checked the water node I was camped by. Eventually I started activating my memento that calls up a little light that circles around me from head to foot so I can see in dark places, obtained in Deshaan from Almalexia, to show people that I wasn't some bot or whatever.
Why were you not looting it? Soon as you see what is in it the contents are set. Any player coming along is going to see exactly what you see. Better to loot it so others don't have to waste time running over to take a peek.
Why were you not looting it? Soon as you see what is in it the contents are set. Any player coming along is going to see exactly what you see. Better to loot it so others don't have to waste time running over to take a peek.
The theory, untested, is that the lead is independent of the normal contents of the node. Thus, when the first player opens it, any other player that opens it will see what the first player saw, but might also see the lead they want. This is important, if true, because it eliminates the need to wait for the node to respawn before it can be checked by another players.
That is also assuming that people can be trained to not take everything from the node. Given the "worm wars" in here over stuff left in nodes, this might be quite the challenge.
If not true, then people are merely extending the time it takes to find the lead.
The community has a tendency to dream up all sorts of things about the game that are not true, so until tested, it is hard to know which way to go on this one.
Don't worry. It takes at least a week for the Secretary of Shadowfen Nodes to respond to appointment requests.
Why were you not looting it? Soon as you see what is in it the contents are set. Any player coming along is going to see exactly what you see. Better to loot it so others don't have to waste time running over to take a peek.
The theory, untested, is that the lead is independent of the normal contents of the node. Thus, when the first player opens it, any other player that opens it will see what the first player saw, but might also see the lead they want. This is important, if true, because it eliminates the need to wait for the node to respawn before it can be checked by another players.
That is also assuming that people can be trained to not take everything from the node. Given the "worm wars" in here over stuff left in nodes, this might be quite the challenge.
If not true, then people are merely extending the time it takes to find the lead.
The community has a tendency to dream up all sorts of things about the game that are not true, so until tested, it is hard to know which way to go on this one.
You didn't explain why I was wrong. You offered an opinion. Players want the lead right now. That is on them. They have made the choice to grind for something the first few days after the item dropped. They made the choice. Simple as that. This is a player created problem that will go away very soon.
Doesn't matter if it is a guild leader requiring players wear the item to participate on the Alpha team in trials or if it is just a completionist that always tries to get everything new quick. Either way it is a player created problem that will not last. Nothing wrong with the game on this one.
Don't worry. It takes at least a week for the Secretary of Shadowfen Nodes to respond to appointment requests.
I can only go on what has been reported and while I dont normally bow to conjecture I figure that if there enough people doing it and enough people reporting it working then there maybe some credence to it.
The other reason for bringing up such things (which wasn't really the intent of the thread) is that if it is how it actually works, then the more important question crops up; "Why?" as it seems needless tedious for the devs to do such a thing in the first place.
It took me about 4 hours to get the lead, running in 1 hour blocks of time (that's all I could stand), over a big circular route. I just kept running it non-stop while there, doing a little resource farming of other mats to break up the monotony. Camping on a node sounds torturous. Keeping on the move you don't have to deal with people being idiots.
NettleCarrier wrote: »It's a culture change within games, not necessarily tied to a generation. I'm sick of this stereotyping. I played EQ for many years and there were far less people in highly contested areas so comparing it to Shadowfen is not really fair. On top of that if you were camping something in a dungeon people could call out camp checks and others would respond. Very rarely did you have people trying to come in and take over your spot. Shadowfen is a downright disaster right now. I'm trying to kind of casually farm the lead and each night I try around 2am eastern and I'm lucky if I can find a node to stand on (usually it is stealing it from someone who's camping two nodes closely together). I don't *love* being this kind of player but that's my only shot at the lead. As the night goes on I've got 30+ people running past me or over top of the node spawn every 5 minutes, people harassing with mementos, and people kiting enemies over so they hit me and I can't loot. It's downright ridiculous! Comparing it to old-fashioned EQ farming does a disservice to Everquest.
LadyNalcarya wrote: »NettleCarrier wrote: »It's a culture change within games, not necessarily tied to a generation. I'm sick of this stereotyping. I played EQ for many years and there were far less people in highly contested areas so comparing it to Shadowfen is not really fair. On top of that if you were camping something in a dungeon people could call out camp checks and others would respond. Very rarely did you have people trying to come in and take over your spot. Shadowfen is a downright disaster right now. I'm trying to kind of casually farm the lead and each night I try around 2am eastern and I'm lucky if I can find a node to stand on (usually it is stealing it from someone who's camping two nodes closely together). I don't *love* being this kind of player but that's my only shot at the lead. As the night goes on I've got 30+ people running past me or over top of the node spawn every 5 minutes, people harassing with mementos, and people kiting enemies over so they hit me and I can't loot. It's downright ridiculous! Comparing it to old-fashioned EQ farming does a disservice to Everquest.
There's one thing about generations: the kids who grinded in Everquest are now adults with jobs, families and other responsibilities and won't be able to grind like they used to, and younger generations are more into shooters/mobas/battle royales. Mmos are mostly popular with adult demographic, so I don't really understand the "kids these days" argument.
furiouslog wrote: »I got my lead on a secondhand node someone had already peeked in.
This could win a contest for bad gameplay:
- It is unengaging and presents no options or challenge, as you just Press E
- Most players are just standing in one spot, covering one to three nodes, waiting to Press E
- They will be there for hours and hours, hoping to Press E in time
- Other players become the enemy, unwelcome competition, in a game not designed around that (this isn't open world pvp or survival)
If you want us to grind an activity, make sure the grind itself has some gameplay value. Not this. Not like this.
SeaGtGruff wrote: »I want ZOS to program a lead to drop from Fleshflies, because I'm pretty sure I'm the only player in the game who ever loots those.