Shadowfen node farming wars

xeNNNNN

Hallothiel wrote: »

Golly gee this is going to be *such* fun on consoles next week.

Curious about ‘peeking’ at a node - not sure this available on consoles, as iirc you take it & that’s it?

DISCLAIMER: This is based on what has been reported by multiple other players in the zone who are in groups with others trying to farm the lead.

So as is with all nodes, if you turn off auto loot you'll instead get a prompt to loot, with auto loot off a small window will appear with the items showing that are contained within the node. When you don't see the lead you just move away without taking the node as in, just use your directional controls to move and it will take you out of the prompt so you dont take the node but you got to see what the node contained.

If it contains the lead then you just take the lead out of the loot window without taking everything in the node. That way the node isn't removed and because its bound to player not to the node, the node may end up getting someone else the lead.

Does that make sense?

xeNNNNN

VaranisArano wrote: »

It is sad how accurate this is.

ThePianist

If the same mudcrab farming bots are farming the nodes, you will never win against them lol. Their algorithmic auto-loot/auto-pick node operates in the speed of light.

Better learn how to animation cancel the cat banker and meat sack to throw them off. Of course this will be seen as toxic behavior on your part when a non-bot player accidentally clicks on your cat banker instead of the node

tomofhyrule

I'll take the kilt grind over the Ancestral motif grind. At least you don't have to scour guild traders for way overpriced treasure maps for a chance to get it...

But I'm just waiting to get it naturally. I don't really need the kilt right away, but I do find it interesting that there was nowhere near this much fury at some of the worse antiquity grinds... but those are cosmetic. We all know that this is going to be like Thrassians - once everyone in a trial is using it, they'll nerf it into the ground, so I'm not going to bother.

I just need them to fix this block bug so I can keep the bosses turned away so you can keep your stacks up.

kargen27

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

xeNNNNN

kargen27 wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

The player reaction is a symptom not a cause.

stefj68

its really war out there, and we have lots of people ninjaing, running around, no courtesy, it brings the worst of some players... please add other drop for it.

nryerson1025

ThePianist wrote: »

Better learn how to animation cancel the cat banker and meat sack to throw them off. Of course this will be seen as toxic behavior on your part when a non-bot player accidentally clicks on your cat banker instead of the node

Can you please explain to me what this is and how to do it lol? Not that I intend to in Shadowfen, I just didn't know there was a way other of interrupting a harvest unless the player enters combat

kargen27

xeNNNNN wrote: »

kargen27 wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

The player reaction is a symptom not a cause.

I disagree. Player reaction is directly the cause. They want to get something in the first few hours it dropped. They decide to sit on the nodes. This lead is easier to get than many other leads in the game. It is simply more desired by a certain demographic of player so obviously there will be competition in farming the resources the first week or two of the content drop. A player rush to get the lead is causing the problem.

Shantu

When you create a mythic item that compensates for many of the unpopular combat nerfs recently, then lock it behind harvesting a limited number of nodes, I don't believe for a minute this fiasco wasn't seen coming. I'm sure ZOS sees this a a win...with ill-will and resentment acceptable collateral damage. Feels rather thoughtless and mean spirited to me.

SpiNfuZer

xeNNNNN wrote: »

Hallothiel wrote: »

Golly gee this is going to be *such* fun on consoles next week.

Curious about ‘peeking’ at a node - not sure this available on consoles, as iirc you take it & that’s it?

DISCLAIMER: This is based on what has been reported by multiple other players in the zone who are in groups with others trying to farm the lead.

So as is with all nodes, if you turn off auto loot you'll instead get a prompt to loot, with auto loot off a small window will appear with the items showing that are contained within the node. When you don't see the lead you just move away without taking the node as in, just use your directional controls to move and it will take you out of the prompt so you dont take the node but you got to see what the node contained.

If it contains the lead then you just take the lead out of the loot window without taking everything in the node. That way the node isn't removed and because its bound to player not to the node, the node may end up getting someone else the lead.

Does that make sense?

I tried to give another player the same node I had when I got the lead. We were not partied. He did not see any lead.

I also tried to give another player my note when it had a Nirnroot and Resin. I took the Nirnroot. The other player only saw a resin.

Elsonso

SpiNfuZer wrote: »

I also tried to give another player my note when it had a Nirnroot and Resin. I took the Nirnroot. The other player only saw a resin.

That is expected. The person who first opens the node sets the content. Anything they leave behind can be found by others. Except for leads, as reported here.

joerginger

kargen27 wrote: »

I disagree. Player reaction is directly the cause.

Exactly. As the word "reaction" clearly shows, it is of course the cause.

(wandering off in disbelief, shaking my head)

xeNNNNN

SpiNfuZer wrote: »

xeNNNNN wrote: »

Hallothiel wrote: »

Golly gee this is going to be *such* fun on consoles next week.

Curious about ‘peeking’ at a node - not sure this available on consoles, as iirc you take it & that’s it?

DISCLAIMER: This is based on what has been reported by multiple other players in the zone who are in groups with others trying to farm the lead.

So as is with all nodes, if you turn off auto loot you'll instead get a prompt to loot, with auto loot off a small window will appear with the items showing that are contained within the node. When you don't see the lead you just move away without taking the node as in, just use your directional controls to move and it will take you out of the prompt so you dont take the node but you got to see what the node contained.

If it contains the lead then you just take the lead out of the loot window without taking everything in the node. That way the node isn't removed and because its bound to player not to the node, the node may end up getting someone else the lead.

Does that make sense?

I tried to give another player the same node I had when I got the lead. We were not partied. He did not see any lead.

I also tried to give another player my note when it had a Nirnroot and Resin. I took the Nirnroot. The other player only saw a resin.

well thats the supposedly key here, he wouldn't see the lead because it was bound to you - he wouldn't see it. Same vice versa.

The lead itself is seemingly different from the rest of the node its found in allowing a new player to open the same node and have a chance at finding it, again this is whats reported nothing I can 100% confirm.

xeNNNNN

kargen27 wrote: »

xeNNNNN wrote: »

kargen27 wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

The player reaction is a symptom not a cause.

I disagree. Player reaction is directly the cause. They want to get something in the first few hours it dropped. They decide to sit on the nodes. This lead is easier to get than many other leads in the game. It is simply more desired by a certain demographic of player so obviously there will be competition in farming the resources the first week or two of the content drop. A player rush to get the lead is causing the problem.

Ok let me put it another way, a more blunt way. If you are the Shepherd (Devs) and you have sheep (the players) - and you herd your sheep into a specific area of the field with your sheepdog (the patch) and where they are herded is a feed troth (the lead) is it the sheeps fault where they were herded or the shepherd?

ZoS knew what this mythic was going to do (I mean fgs its 10% bonus crit damage at full stacks near permanently because DDs won't take direct damage very often if at all). ZoS knew it would become a meta staple until they use the nerf hammer and they knew they were placing it on a source which by its own natural interaction causes such a situation if players are herded into one area. Can blame the players for being silly, but they wouldn't even be there or have this issue if it wasn't on one of the worst possible choices of source drops. In fact this problem would not exist had they chose a drop source much more reasonably or hell a better drop rate than 1 in 100 for something they knew would be meta. This is why I said the player reaction was a symptom not a cause.

Now look we can play semantics of oh but they chose, but the reality is everything the devs seemingly do with placement is by design and not just players not waiting. Not only that but it is highly likely that in a month it will be nerfed yet, people will view it as mandatory to do their high end runs. Thats alls some play for. But when this "some" is all congregated in one location. It becomes ridiculous.

And even if you were to take out the player equation, this is still quite possibly the worst and most ridiculous source to place a meta drop with a 1 in 100 drop chance and thats assuming the law of averages even matters here.

rumple9

I haven't a clue what all this is about as I don't bother with scrying or mythics but I went to visit a guild trader in shadowfen today and I couldn't believe ppl arguing in zone chat about nodes and I thought wtf is going on

Morgha_Kul

I haven't had a node ninja encounter in ages. YEARS, even... until today. Went to grab a Psijic portal when a bear or something attacked, and while I was dealing with that, someone ran literally THROUGH me to get the node.

Not a big deal, there's lots to go around... but it was pretty classless... and kind of nostalgic.

xeNNNNN

rumple9 wrote: »

I haven't a clue what all this is about as I don't bother with scrying or mythics but I went to visit a guild trader in shadowfen today and I couldn't believe ppl arguing in zone chat about nodes and I thought wtf is going on

Long story short, Meta mythic piece of gear 1 lead out of 5 is in Shadowfen - highly valued for raids, crap drop source, crap drop rate, a lot of griefing as a result and a weird and all out strange misconception that X player owns Y water node because they camp it and thus rage ensues when someone "steals" it from the camper.

xeNNNNN

Morgha_Kul wrote: »

I haven't had a node ninja encounter in ages. YEARS, even... until today. Went to grab a Psijic portal when a bear or something attacked, and while I was dealing with that, someone ran literally THROUGH me to get the node.

Not a big deal, there's lots to go around... but it was pretty classless... and kind of nostalgic.

You'd probably enjoy the philosophical debates of shadowfen chat; "Do thou owneth node if thou camps thy spot chosen?"

dcmgti

40 hours farming this, no lead. I know some guildies that got in 2-3 hours or less and I know some that have given up completely.

Stevie6

The devs should fix this by adding additional nodes and extending the lead drop to include world bosses, delves, fishing, etc.

kargen27

xeNNNNN wrote: »

kargen27 wrote: »

xeNNNNN wrote: »

kargen27 wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

The player reaction is a symptom not a cause.

I disagree. Player reaction is directly the cause. They want to get something in the first few hours it dropped. They decide to sit on the nodes. This lead is easier to get than many other leads in the game. It is simply more desired by a certain demographic of player so obviously there will be competition in farming the resources the first week or two of the content drop. A player rush to get the lead is causing the problem.

Ok let me put it another way, a more blunt way. If you are the Shepherd (Devs) and you have sheep (the players) - and you herd your sheep into a specific area of the field with your sheepdog (the patch) and where they are herded is a feed troth (the lead) is it the sheeps fault where they were herded or the shepherd?

ZoS knew what this mythic was going to do (I mean fgs its 10% bonus crit damage at full stacks near permanently because DDs won't take direct damage very often if at all). ZoS knew it would become a meta staple until they use the nerf hammer and they knew they were placing it on a source which by its own natural interaction causes such a situation if players are herded into one area. Can blame the players for being silly, but they wouldn't even be there or have this issue if it wasn't on one of the worst possible choices of source drops. In fact this problem would not exist had they chose a drop source much more reasonably or hell a better drop rate than 1 in 100 for something they knew would be meta. This is why I said the player reaction was a symptom not a cause.

Now look we can play semantics of oh but they chose, but the reality is everything the devs seemingly do with placement is by design and not just players not waiting. Not only that but it is highly likely that in a month it will be nerfed yet, people will view it as mandatory to do their high end runs. Thats alls some play for. But when this "some" is all congregated in one location. It becomes ridiculous.

And even if you were to take out the player equation, this is still quite possibly the worst and most ridiculous source to place a meta drop with a 1 in 100 drop chance and thats assuming the law of averages even matters here.

All that said if the developers do nothing for a week or two problem solved. The players that want it in a hurry will have it and the rest will get it at their leisure. A very temporary behavior change does not constitute a need to make changes to the game. It is ridiculous because the players are making it so.

Again compared to some other leads this one is simple. Things are not suppose to happen all at once.

Dark_Lord_Kuro

THE ELDER SCROLLS ONLINE:WAR OF THE KILT

MalEducado

zos...have to change that way of obtain the lead pls

furiouslog

kargen27 wrote: »

furiouslog wrote: »

Saucy_Jack wrote: »

Wait, the lead comes from water plants, right? Isn't Shadowfen like...90% swamp? Wouldn't MOST of the plants in Shadowfen be water plants? What am I missing here?

There are, based on my HarvestMap, 85 water plant nodes, and 90 pure water nodes.

Based on prior data for the rarity of other lead drops coming from nodes collected through addons as well as times reported in the zone chat (and this is an assumption, granted), I'm estimating the lead drop rate to be 1 in 100.

Based on personal data collected and data posted in the zone chat, the average respawn time ranges from 2 to 10 minutes (some people reported higher, but I didn't see it and other people aggregating data did not report that, so those are probably outliers or bad reports). The average reported seemed to be about 4 minutes and 30 seconds.

Given those odds and timing, this is the probability that you'll get a drop after spending a certain amount of time harvesting:



The 50% break point is at about 5 hours. The proper way to figure this next bit out would be to simulate the results and behavior conditionally, but I really don't want to spend the time coding that when ZOS will not address it and others will just poke holes in the assumptions anyway, so I'm going to give a "back of the envelope" estimate of lead drop clear rates based on the quartiles.

ZOS has stated that there are 15 million accounts. Let's say that 40% are on PC-NA, and that only one percent of them play a lot, and a quarter of those guys actually care about the lead. That gives us a pool of 15000 players on PC-NA who would like to farm the lead for one reason or another. That kind of lines up with Steamcharts and ESOLogs data, assuming that people who upload logs and parses to ESOLogs are interested enough in playing well to farm this item, while others are just collectors.

Assuming that all nodes are being farmed 24/7, given the available nodes, interested players, one node per player, players leaving once lead is farmed, and the stated odds of a drop, that means that it will take that pool of players about 26 days to clear the zone before it's no longer saturated if they were persistently working at it perfectly and efficiently at all hours of the day. Once you introduce the inefficiencies, that time gets longer. And, of course, there are going to be some unfortunates who will potentially spend well over 20 hours sitting and staring at a plant before getting rewarded, some of whom I have seen in zone chat, and are quite clearly clinically depressed.

So that's kind of the beef with the design, I think. If anyone has issues with my assumptions, feel free to say so, these numbers are very hypothetical and heavily conditional on the odds of a drop.

So my guess that in about a month things will settle down seems about right. This really isn't anything new or different from past new content releases. There is always something a few players want right away. It is why the first few days after a new release there is a lot of gold to be made from motif and furniture plan drops. The price of wanting to be among the first to get this lead in Shadowfen is you have to compete with all the other players that want to be among the first to get the lead. I don't see any need to make adjustments to the game for a problem that is essentially player created. Those who decide to wait a few weeks before giving it a go will likely have a much easier time of it.

I could not disagree more. The node limits and toxicity are a symptom of player urgency, but making someone sit there for more than 20 hours mindlessly doing the most boring thing in the game is just straight up player punishment. That time requirement will not change much after the node limits settle down, not until the zone is just empty. Why even make it that way? It's madness.

Ryath_Waylander

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danno8

So glad I'm waiting to purchase this Chapter. Between companions and this it appears to be a gong show.

Also, they could solve this easier by just spinning up more instances of Shadowfen and reducing the player cap per instance.

Elsonso

xeNNNNN wrote: »

Ok let me put it another way, a more blunt way. If you are the Shepherd (Devs) and you have sheep (the players) - and you herd your sheep into a specific area of the field with your sheepdog (the patch) and where they are herded is a feed troth (the lead) is it the sheeps fault where they were herded or the shepherd?

Wow. Awesome use of an analogy.

Sadly, it is heading in the right direction, but it is a little off. You suggest that the sheep have no choice but to go to that location and eat out of that trough. Yes, if they want that food, they go there. However, in this case, they are not being forced to eat out of that tough. The sheep choose to eat out of that trough. They are not compelled to do it by the Shepherd.

Herd mentality. Some of the people are there because they need that lead, some are there because they want that lead. Sadly, all too many are there because they see other people doing it and figure they should be doing it, too.

This is why I am not a sheep.

VaranisArano

I doubt we'll see ZOS change the lead's drop spots because once they nerf it (as they inevitably will) Shadowfen will empty out again. Why change anything when the Harpooner's Kilt is only going to be desirable until the next PTS Cycle when ZOS announces its being nerfed into uselessness?

On the other hand, I sincerely hope that ZOS reconsider their habit of nerfing existing player builds, then selling back that nerfed power in the form of mythic items, then expecting players to grind for increasingly rare leads to add insult to injury.

Oh, who am I kidding.

Nerfing player builds to sell back that lost power in the form of mythic items while getting players to grind for rare leads was the whole point of Antiquities. Always has been.

Let's not white-knight the Developers too much here. All those players aggressively farming Shadowfen are playing ESO exactly how ZOS intends. See also Bad Man's Hollow and the Imperial City Bosses.

Sue_D_Nim

nryerson1025 wrote: »

There are farmers within short range of every node in Shadowfen. A lot of these players actually believe they have ownership of these nodes within range and if anyone else were to take it, it would be stealing. Some become toxic in zone and or local chat. There have even been a few instances of individuals soliciting the sale of a certain area containing x amount of nodes.

If this gameplay is to accepted in ESO, I think the necessary action is to allow flagging and pvp in the zone. Faction less that is. If we're to make claims of land on a mega server, one should in my opinion have the right to defend it or conquer it.

But in reality, this is just a poorly planned drop in ESO that has degraded the quality of the community

I see the underlying problem as the way people are now. There are too dang many greedy, thoughtless, entitle Karens allowed to run around. Is it just me, or there about 1000 times more of them running around the world than there used to be. By and large, people used to have good manners. Now the ones you hear and see on YouTube or in your newsfeed are no more human than ravening wolves, judging by their behavior. In fact, I'll take the wolf every time. At least a wolf acts on honest instinct, not cruelty.