These crown crates.. I feel like..

Arthg

Elwendryll wrote: »

Arthg wrote: »

Streega wrote: »

Elwendryll wrote: »

Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316

I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.

2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%

As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns

Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.

Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.

I can understand why you used to do a lot of statistics.
I can't understand why if you did do a loto statistics, you never heard of Bernouilli trials or binomial distributions.

You have 0.15% to get an Apex Radiant mount for each trial, but you don't have 0.15% chance to get a mount after nth trials.
What's at hand here is the calculation of a probability of success after a given number of trials in the case of independent events with given odds.

What are the chances you roll a 6? 0.1667.

What are the chances you roll a 6 after 3 trials?
If you believe it's 0.16667, YOU are the clueless sheep.

Good luck with your research.

Yeah, math debate. Actually, @Streega, I'm in an engineering school, and what I'm talking about is from highschool.

I'm not talking about the chance of getting the loot at the crate number N. But getting at least one reward with N crates which is the same event as not getting nothing for N trials. Simply put. You throw a dice. You have 1/6 chance to get the number 6. You throw it again, you still have 1/6 chance to get 6. So, that's 5/6 chance for each throw to not get a 6. So, if you throw your dice twice, you have 5/6 squared to not get 6 on neither of these throws. You just have to take the probability of the complementary event. That's a Bernoulli trial, and the binomial law, which consists of a serie of Bernoulli trials.

I don't want to be rude, but I noticed a lot of people have problems with statistics, and have really strong *false* opinions on how it works. That's ok, but don't be aggressive

Not sure who you're talking to, but I'd laid out all the calculations on page 2 of this thread.

There's no such thing as a "math debate".
That expression is actually an oxymoron.

Reistr_the_Unbroken

I actually don’t want anything from these new crates, they all look like a meh. I’m glad a friend of mine got a lizard mount tho!

I still want to see the storm atro crates come back, as I’m sitting on 57 gems bc there’s a soul-shriven outfit or two I want

Abigail

Arthg wrote: »

There's no such thing as a "math debate".

Hoo boy! You've never been a meeting with a bunch of statisticians and data analysts.

(Just kidding, of course.)

Elwendryll

Arthg wrote: »

Not sure who you're talking to, but I'd laid out all the calculations on page 2 of this thread.

There's no such thing as a "math debate".
That expression is actually an oxymoron.

I quoted your message because you agreed with me. I was talking to Streega.
I don't know if there are math debates, but, I once saw a female streamer who were asked to quickly repeat "I won a math debate", quite funny. It was just as a joke in my message.

@Streega, probability and facts are separate things, I can say my calculations are exacts, given the input values I used. However, it's a game, on a computer, and computed random is not really random. And even with a 99% chance to get something after 1000 trials, you can still get nothing after 10000, that's just probabilities. So, you're probably (eheh) right, it's unlikely the probability match the real chances. The numbers you saw are statistics. Statistics are facts, probabilities are... probabilities xD

You were afraid that my vision was "I have 1 chance out of 10 to get that, let's buy 10 crates for a guaranteed loot". Indeed, a lot of people think like that, it's totally wrong mathematically, but it can be true factually. With a number of trials close to the infinite, or, in certain games that have cheated probability, in which a 33% crit chance will make you crit every third hit, because people don't like to rely on randomness.

As I said, you can't guarantee a loot, but the more crates you buy, the higher the chances are that you'll eventually get one. But that's just chances...

So, my apologies, I just thought it would be quite funny to see how ridiculously expensive it would be to get decent chances of getting something. It's all theory. But I couldn't let my maths be challenged like that

Wolfkeks

Yeah chances are really really low. This guys brought 210 crown crates and got one radiant mount.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XTWwytMx2u4
The odds are terrible.

fallentemplar

i have gotten like 30 Crown creates since Halloween season and this one not a single apex and about 3 legendary i used to get decent drop rate my opinion is they either nerfed the drop rate or maybe its the added dyes/extra items lower the drop rate but it seems some thing is strange but maybe i have really bad luck aswell but you cant get crown creates on the pts to test drop rates but i get a feeling not all seasons have the same drop rate just a feeling i get probably wrong and its just pure bad/good luck just a thought i had which i thought belonged here

Tigerseye

I have very low expectations from crates...

I would say only get them if you want several of the lower rewards (pets etc.) and/or to get the gems to buy something specific.

Getting them in the hope of winning Apex mounts (let alone Radiant Apex ones!) is a total mistake.

albesca

Elwendryll wrote: »

As I said, you can't guarantee a loot, but the more crates you buy, the higher the chances are that you'll eventually get one. But that's just chances...

Judging from what you wrote in this discussion I think you know what you're talking about, but I also think that the ambiguity of the part I bolded in your quote is what tricks gamblers into spending tons of money.

If I buy 170 crates, before opening them I know that there's a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant apex mount.
If I get nothing and proceed to buy another batch of 170 crates, before opening them I have a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant mount; a gambler feels that he has a 44% chance of getting the mount (the probability with 340 crates).

Elwendryll

albesca wrote: »

Elwendryll wrote: »

As I said, you can't guarantee a loot, but the more crates you buy, the higher the chances are that you'll eventually get one. But that's just chances...

Judging from what you wrote in this discussion I think you know what you're talking about, but I also think that the ambiguity of the part I bolded in your quote is what tricks gamblers into spending tons of money.

If I buy 170 crates, before opening them I know that there's a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant apex mount.
If I get nothing and proceed to buy another batch of 170 crates, before opening them I have a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant mount; a gambler feels that he has a 44% chance of getting the mount (the probability with 340 crates).

A gambler feels the Radiant Apex is in the next crate...

Elsonso

albesca wrote: »

Elwendryll wrote: »

As I said, you can't guarantee a loot, but the more crates you buy, the higher the chances are that you'll eventually get one. But that's just chances...

Judging from what you wrote in this discussion I think you know what you're talking about, but I also think that the ambiguity of the part I bolded in your quote is what tricks gamblers into spending tons of money.

The bolded part is accurate enough. A gambler knows that if they start flipping a coin, they will get a heads. They just don't know when. The more they flip, the less likely it is that they will never get a heads. They also know this. The fallacy starts when the gambler feels that they are owed the desired response after a given number of unsuccessful tries. This results in them placing a higher probability on the next attempt than the actual probability of success.

albesca wrote: »

If I buy 170 crates, before opening them I know that there's a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant apex mount.
If I get nothing and proceed to buy another batch of 170 crates, before opening them I have a 25% chance of getting at least one radiant mount; a gambler feels that he has a 44% chance of getting the mount (the probability with 340 crates).

Yes, 170 Crown Crates gives you a probability of 0.25 (25%), and the next 170 Crown Crates gives you the same probability. If the question is "what is my probability of getting a Radiant Apex mount in these 170 crates" then your statement is correct. It is 25%. However, that is not the question. The question is "what is my probability of getting a Radiant Apex mount from 340 crates". The probability of that is 0.44 (44%). This is what the bolded statement says, and it is not wrong.

All other things being equal, there is no statistical difference between opening 340 crates in one pass, doing two passes of 170, or opening 1 crate each day for 340 days. All three have the same probability of success.

Streega

@Elwendryll Thank you for your kind response - I fully agree with you.
There's another factor it this whole scam crates business - there's too many variables IMO to calculate the outcome precisely. We don't know what are the real chances of getting the item. ZOS can manipulate those numbers as much and as often as they want, that's why it's a scam. Look at Twitch drops - I used to get at least 3-4 crates from every Twitch event, now I'm lucky if I get one. They have cancelled two of three last ESO Live streams. No more free crates in daily login rewards.
That's what I was trying to say: no magical Bombadil math is going to help you when the deal is rigged, sorry.

ZarkingFrued

Posts like this are exactly why they are doing away with free crates 😉

Gargath wrote: »

When I read the above, it reminds me that I did not spend a single crown for a crate but only from free crates I got a sweet roll, flame atronach guar and frostbane sabre cat. 20k crowns wasted? You better stick with the free crates next time .

angelncelestine

ZarkingFrued wrote: »

Posts like this are exactly why they are doing away with free crates 😉

Gargath wrote: »

When I read the above, it reminds me that I did not spend a single crown for a crate but only from free crates I got a sweet roll, flame atronach guar and frostbane sabre cat. 20k crowns wasted? You better stick with the free crates next time .

Yep, I was thinking the same thing. To many people coming on here bragging about what they got free from crates or saying that they don't need to buy them because they just use the gems from free crates to get what they want. So it really isn't a shocker that they are not giving them out hardly or if at all anymore.

GreenhaloX

Wolfkeks wrote: »

Yeah chances are really really low. This guys brought 210 crown crates and got one radiant mount.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XTWwytMx2u4
The odds are terrible.

Oh.. mine was far less. Not that it's any better. I may be determined, but not crazy. Ha ha

The is thing, it's not even all that. I mean, it's not bad, but for what's supposed to be a radiant apex award mount, it's really lackluster. Damn, the designers suck on this one. You figured it would be like a Ferrari or Lambo, or a hot female (or male) turning head and getting a double take. Nope.. the flame just fizzles about while idling and when you get it turned on after the mount roar or whatever, the flame is noticeable, but far from turning heads. Man, let me at it. I'll ensure the mount is worthy of being a radiant apex award mount. Big flames or lightning stretching down the way, and peeps will be like, damn, look at that shitt; lucky basttard, I want one. Nope, not a sense of that.

Ehh, what's done is done. Yes, I had my peeps in real life actually posted a kick me sign on my back and rolling around with that for a while for self-atonement.

randomkeyhits

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

TelvanniWizard wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

kojou wrote: »

The house always wins...

To bad the crates aren't gambling.

They are. It´s paying real currency for a chance to get some price. Because people want the price, nobody buys crates for the potions, so don´t start with the "you always get something" story. It´s hands down gambling.

That's just it though. If you are truly gambling you have a chance to lose everything without getting anything in return. The crates you are guaranteed a return on your money, just maybe not what you wanted, but that doesn't make it gambling.

You misunderstand gambling.

Gambling is not an absolute win/lose but instead is risk vs reward.

The outlay of a modest amount in the hope of a high value reward is gambling regardless if there is padding so you always "win" something. In crown boxes you are gambling for say a mount, not a mimic stone. There are two reasons for the paddings, the first is psychological so you dont feel like its a total loss, the second is for the legalise side as most countries dance around their legal definition of gambling and a chance of no return at all does tend to fall under licensed gambling.

Genomic

Cpt_Teemo

Wolfkeks wrote: »

Yeah chances are really really low. This guys brought 210 crown crates and got one radiant mount.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XTWwytMx2u4
The odds are terrible.

I opened 60 crates and got 1 apex 400 gem mount and like 2 100 gem mounts, yeah really low chance for radiant

Curtdogg47

I assume that ZOS is ranking in the $$$ with the crate model. However I wish they would just go to cash shop model where we could by what we liked free of the gambling game. As long as everything is only cosmetic!