The Gold Road Chapter – which includes the Scribing system – and Update 42 is now available to test on the PTS! You can read the latest patch notes here: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/656454/
These crown crates.. I feel like..
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bearbelly✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Eventually I came back, but if it almost cost me everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDRtWntv3FY 0 -
Reverb✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Hoolielulu wrote: »Zeni gave a cost free alternative, but it requires a time commitment. Watch ESO Twitch streams, get crates, get garbage consumables and exchange them for gems, use gems to buy Apex Mount. Leave the stream on your device laying somewhere while you get things done around d the house, or run errands, or whatever. Do this a few times a week and you'll have more than enough gems to buy the mounts.
Except for those of us on console, you mean.
Yah, sorry. Didn't mean to rub it in, I honestly forgot that console platforms are excluded from Twitch drops. I still don't understand why that is, unless it's because Sony and MS haven't figured out how to siphon the revenue from it.Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you. ~Friedrich Nietzsche0 -
GreenhaloX✭✭✭✭✭
✭GUYS I JUST GOT A RADIANT APEX MOUNT!!!!11eleven!! BELIEVE ME IT WORKS. YOU JUST GOT UNLUCKY, BUT THE LOSING STREAK GOTTA END AT SOME POINT SO KEEP BUYINGGGGGGG!
You sound like those that are paid to write good review/comments on a product, even though, they didn't actually bought the product. Are you paid the same by ZOS? Ha ha2 -
Reistr_the_Unbroken✭✭✭✭✭
✭I just hope the Storm Atro Crates come back Cause I have 53 gems saved up to buy some soul-Shriven costumes.0 -
GreenhaloX✭✭✭✭✭
✭Hippie4927 wrote: »AWWW you deserve it though Hippie! You're always the coolest to people!
Awww! Thank you!Noticed that most of the people with radiant apex are top players? Coincidence?
Coding in this game is bonkers let alone have them make a purest form of RNG that is equivalence to real luck. There would obviously be biased and favoritism within this system.
I am far from a top player! I'm not a streamer; I'm not on Twitch or Facebook or any of that; Zeni doesn't know who I am.GreenhaloX wrote: »Hippie4927 wrote: »Sorry for your bad luck, OP.
Tonight I bought only 15 crates and to my surprise.........
I have wanted that mount ever since I first saw it but wasn't willing to spend much trying to get it. Usually RNG hates me but tonight I got lucky.
AWWW you deserve it though Hippie! You're always the coolest to people!
Yeah.. oooh, sooo sweet. Good for you. @Hippie4927.
But, tell me.. how did you hacked it..? That's just awesome from one set of crown crates. Yup, somebody likes you.. ha ha
LOL! No hacking! I wasn't even thinking about that mount. I bought the crates hoping to get a couple of motif books that I needed and maybe a couple of other cool things. I was shocked when that mount came up.
That's cool, @Hippie4927. Good for you.
Ok.. I finally got one. Don't ask how much and how many more crates. It's one of those things where I didn't want to put such an effort already spent be in vain; and no, I don't gamble at a casino in real life and never have. However, similar in real life, I just hate quitting on something I was focused in. So yeah, I finally got one.. but, you can go ahead and pin that kick me sign all over my back; because, ends up, the mount isn't really all that's quacked up to be. Ha ha ha. I'm not sure that I am laughing in despair or relief.2 -
Hippie4927✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭@GreenhaloX
Grats on finally getting it! I hope you didn't have to spend TOO much to get it but glad that you did finally get one. PC/NA/EP ✌️0 -
Nyladreas✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭TheDarkShadow wrote: »I know someone spent about 200 bucks on scalecaller crates (about 28k crown I guess) and still can't get the radiant mount.
In some countries people make 200 dollars a month on average if not less while working harder than most people in rich countries... Here we have certain experts spending 200-500 on gambling and complaining about it with entitlement because of a bag of pixels they didn't get...
Well then...
(not aimed at you, Dark)Edited by Nyladreas on December 6, 2018 9:13AM1 -
Ratzkifal✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭GreenhaloX wrote: »GUYS I JUST GOT A RADIANT APEX MOUNT!!!!11eleven!! BELIEVE ME IT WORKS. YOU JUST GOT UNLUCKY, BUT THE LOSING STREAK GOTTA END AT SOME POINT SO KEEP BUYINGGGGGGG!
You sound like those that are paid to write good review/comments on a product, even though, they didn't actually bought the product. Are you paid the same by ZOS? Ha ha
@GreenhaloX That's exactly what I was going for. The rarest things I got was a Psijic Camel from a free crate and a Scarlet remorse pet from a Twitch crate. The odds are garbage and the system is predatory. I only ever bought one crate and that was a calculated non-risk because whether I got the item or not didn't matter. I was guaranteed to get enough gems (16) to buy it afterwards.
Stay in school and don't do crates kids!This Bosmer was tortured to death. There is nothing left to be done.1 -
TelvanniWizard✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭With lootboxes you almost always lose. The one who wins is ZO$.Edited by TelvanniWizard on December 6, 2018 12:06PM1 -
GreenhaloX✭✭✭✭✭
✭Hippie4927 wrote: »@GreenhaloX
Grats on finally getting it! I hope you didn't have to spend TOO much to get it but glad that you did finally get one.
Thank you, @Hippie4927.. I appreciated it. However, I'm trying to oppress the memories of this excruciating ordeal and definitely avoid having to think back on how much.. ha ha ha (eerie and disturbing laughing here..)GreenhaloX wrote: »GUYS I JUST GOT A RADIANT APEX MOUNT!!!!11eleven!! BELIEVE ME IT WORKS. YOU JUST GOT UNLUCKY, BUT THE LOSING STREAK GOTTA END AT SOME POINT SO KEEP BUYINGGGGGGG!
You sound like those that are paid to write good review/comments on a product, even though, they didn't actually bought the product. Are you paid the same by ZOS? Ha ha
@GreenhaloX That's exactly what I was going for. The rarest things I got was a Psijic Camel from a free crate and a Scarlet remorse pet from a Twitch crate. The odds are garbage and the system is predatory. I only ever bought one crate and that was a calculated non-risk because whether I got the item or not didn't matter. I was guaranteed to get enough gems (16) to buy it afterwards.
Stay in school and don't do crates kids!
I hear you. This crown crates shitt definitely reminds me of that commercial back when with the eggs frying in the pan.. This is your brain on drugs. In this case, the parody is, this is your brain on crown crates. Ha ha
Zenimax, I still hate you..1 -
Elwendryll✭✭✭✭✭
✭Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.Edited by Elwendryll on December 7, 2018 10:58AMPC - EU - France - AD
Main character: Qojikrin - Khajiit Sorcerer Tank/Stamina DD - since March 25, 2015.
Guildmaster of Oriflamme: Focus on 4 player endgame content.
Member of Brave Cat Trade, Panda Division and Toadhuggers.
All 4-man trifectas - TTT, IR, GH0 -
Pajor✭✭✭✭I spent 21,000 crowns on these crates and when from 215 gems to 806. I wanted gems anyway. Got 2 mounts from it which were both duplicate legendary reward ones.0 -
DMuehlhausen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭GreenhaloX wrote: »Before you call me an idiot and stick a kick me sign on my back.. I know, I know, but I really would like to get at least one, or two, of the Radiant Apex Award mounts from these current Scalecaller crates. That Galvanic Storm Steed, Dragonfire wolf and Shadow-Rider Senche look so cool. After 60 crates, not one ffing Radiant Apex reward. Only got one damn mount from the Apex reward; rest are all crap potions, poisons, scrolls and shitt repeatedly. WTF.. 60 ffing crates/ 20k crowns wasted. You would think we would have received at least 1 or 2 from the Radiant Apex and a few from the Apex; mounts specifically. I feel like (if I could) shove all these crates up somebody's arse over there in the Zen and ZOS land. Damn, this shitt needs rework and improved bad.
. Had a thumb back up for the recent fix to the 2H reticle issue. Now this.. thumb is back down. Goodness..
IDK why people gamble then complain they didn't get Jackpot.
Cause it's not gambling. They are still crazy to think you are going to get 1 or even 2 of the rarest items from 60 crates, but it's not gambling.
If it was gambling he would have had a chance to not get a single item from the 60 crates.0 -
DMuehlhausen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭GreenhaloX wrote: »Before you call me an idiot and stick a kick me sign on my back.. I know, I know, but I really would like to get at least one, or two, of the Radiant Apex Award mounts from these current Scalecaller crates. That Galvanic Storm Steed, Dragonfire wolf and Shadow-Rider Senche look so cool. After 60 crates, not one ffing Radiant Apex reward. Only got one damn mount from the Apex reward; rest are all crap potions, poisons, scrolls and shitt repeatedly. WTF.. 60 ffing crates/ 20k crowns wasted. You would think we would have received at least 1 or 2 from the Radiant Apex and a few from the Apex; mounts specifically. I feel like (if I could) shove all these crates up somebody's arse over there in the Zen and ZOS land. Damn, this shitt needs rework and improved bad.. Had a thumb back up for the recent fix to the 2H reticle issue. Now this.. thumb is back down. Goodness..
This is completely on you.
The loot boxes aren't gambling as you get items back guaranteed.
However, every item even the Radiant Apex mounts should be buyable through Gems. Even if one is like 20k Gems it would be something people would still be able to save up for over time or have a way to just purchase the gems directly.1 -
Elsonso✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭menathradiel wrote: »The house always wins...
As someone who once worked in the counting room of a casino, I can attest to this truth. It's the reason why I never gamble. And at least casinos and arcades are regulated - crown crates... they can have any odds they like and they don't even have to tell you what they are. Any game's "loot boxes" always make me think of "mystery box" games, where you know it's gonna be filled with trash but somehow convince yourself there might be something really good inside because Mavis just won a bottle of whisky.
Not only do they not have to tell the odds of loot boxes (in most places) but they can change the odds at any time. What happens if they have the high value item drop rates rigged for the first 12 hours, then make them harder to get? Early people get these great prizes and talk about them. People buy the loot box because of that, but by the time they buy the box, the odds have changed. People blame bad luck due to RNG, not understanding how odds work, or whatever.
"Must seem like bad luck. Truth is, game was rigged from the start."
Not saying that ZOS does this, but the fact that they don't tell us the odds certainly opens up the possibility.
1 -
Streega✭✭✭✭✭
✭Elwendryll wrote: »Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.
Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.
EDIT: What I posted above may be incorrect in case the "reward" pool is reset every day or week, not every crate. Then you indeed have a higher chance with more crates. However, I highly doubt this is the case, the data collected by Faunter (author of the Crown Crate Tracker add-on) rather confirms it's a one-time event.Edited by Streega on December 7, 2018 3:38PM⊂(￣(工)￣)⊃ Don't-Care-Bear ⊂(￣(工)￣)⊃PC EU "House Tertia" - Friendly Guild for Mature Folks (housetertia.com)
PC EU "Priests of Hircine" - Awesome Guild for Friendly Werewolves (free bites!)
Member of "Guild Masters United"
Master Angler1 -
Arthg✭✭✭✭✭
✭Elwendryll wrote: »Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.
Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.
I can understand why you used to do a lot of statistics.
I can't understand why if you did do a loto statistics, you never heard of Bernouilli trials or binomial distributions.
You have 0.15% to get an Apex Radiant mount for each trial, but you don't have 0.15% chance to get a mount after nth trials.
What's at hand here is the calculation of a probability of success after a given number of trials in the case of independent events with given odds.
What are the chances you roll a 6? 0.1667.
What are the chances you roll a 6 after 3 trials?
If you believe it's 0.16667, YOU are the clueless sheep.
Good luck with your research.
PC/EU. NoCP PvP. sDK Orc IRL. Flawless tamperor. Pro scrub.0 -
Elwendryll✭✭✭✭✭
✭Elwendryll wrote: »Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.
Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.
I can understand why you used to do a lot of statistics.
I can't understand why if you did do a loto statistics, you never heard of Bernouilli trials or binomial distributions.
You have 0.15% to get an Apex Radiant mount for each trial, but you don't have 0.15% chance to get a mount after nth trials.
What's at hand here is the calculation of a probability of success after a given number of trials in the case of independent events with given odds.
What are the chances you roll a 6? 0.1667.
What are the chances you roll a 6 after 3 trials?
If you believe it's 0.16667, YOU are the clueless sheep.
Good luck with your research.
Yeah, math debate. Actually, @Streega, I'm in an engineering school, and what I'm talking about is from highschool.
I'm not talking about the chance of getting the loot at the crate number N. But getting at least one reward with N crates which is the same event as not getting nothing for N trials. Simply put. You throw a dice. You have 1/6 chance to get the number 6. You throw it again, you still have 1/6 chance to get 6. So, that's 5/6 chance for each throw to not get a 6. So, if you throw your dice twice, you have 5/6 squared to not get 6 on neither of these throws. You just have to take the probability of the complementary event. That's a Bernoulli trial, and the binomial law, which consists of a serie of Bernoulli trials.
I don't want to be rude, but I noticed a lot of people have problems with statistics, and have really strong *false* opinions on how it works. That's ok, but don't be aggressive Edited by Elwendryll on December 7, 2018 4:09PMPC - EU - France - AD
Main character: Qojikrin - Khajiit Sorcerer Tank/Stamina DD - since March 25, 2015.
Guildmaster of Oriflamme: Focus on 4 player endgame content.
Member of Brave Cat Trade, Panda Division and Toadhuggers.
All 4-man trifectas - TTT, IR, GH1 -
Kalik_Gold✭✭✭✭✭
✭I prefer buying items with Crowns direct... my favorite horse is the Auroran. I'm happy with buying it out right.Main: (PvP & PvE)PS5/NA - Ras Kalik a Redguard Templar - Daggerfall Covenant • 1550+ Champion
Ras Kalik a Redguard Templar, the Vestige
PvP:
Aurik Siet'ka a Redguard Necromancer
Cacique the Sage of Ius a Redguard Warden
Jux Blackheart a Redguard Nightblade
Goliath of Hammerfell a Redguard Dragonknight
Kaotik Von Dae'mon a Redguard* Sorcerer
PvP: (Specialty)
Tyrus Septim an Imperial Lycan Sorcerer
Tsar af-Bomba a Redguard Vampiric Nightblade
Movárth Piquine a Nord Vampiric Necromancer
Uri Ice-Heart the Twin a Nord Vampiric Warden
PvE:
Cinan Tharn an Imperial Dragonknight
Bates Vesuius of Dawnstar an Imperial Dragonknight
Herzog Zwei the Genesis an Akavari* Templar
Tav'i at-Shinji a Redguard** Warden
Lucky Hunch the Gambler - a Redguard Nightblade
Leveling...
Zenovia at-Tura a Redguard** Sorcerer
Yesi af-Kalik a Redguard Templar
Voa a Priest of Sep a Redguard* Necromancer
======
Passives of another race used. (RP)
*Breton
**Imperial
__________________________Backstories:_________________________
Ras Kalik the Vestige, a renown Redguard warrior; He has been blessed to save Tamriel from Molag Bal’s destructive Planemeld while reuniting the Five Companions. His further accomplishments after defeating Molag Bal, has been to stop the destruction of Morrowind, the Clockwork City, return order to the isle of Summerset and create a new king in Wrothgar and a queen in Elsywer. These events have made him a living legend and continue to lead him into new adventures throughout Tamriel, as well as into the hearts of many ladies including the Elf Queen, Aryenn. Over many years of adventurous travels, Ras Kalik had become a loner, until he re-visited his homeland of Alik'r.
Alik'r and it's cities were overrun by the undead Ra-Netu and therefore he made an allegiance with Alik'r's own Ash'abah tribe. These Ash'abah with his help, cleansed the city of Sentinel in Alik'r desert and it's surrounding areas of the undead brought to life by the Withered Hand. After rescuing Sentinel from the undead zombies, King Fahara’jad’s personal bodyguard the Goliath of Hammerfell, who was given this name by Imperials in the region; was asked to assist the tribe after learning of the defeat of the Withered Hand to the Ash'abah. Kalik promised Goliath he would task him with fighting living enemies on the battlefield if he so desired. Goliath being a Yokudan warrior wields a massive sword in respect to the Ansei, a gift given by the Imperial, Cinan Tharn. Not many soldiers are able to wield double two handed weapons, but Goliath loves to get up and personal in a fight, so he also carries a giant maul, both weapons laced with magical flames.
Jux Blackheart is a master thief that masquerades as a Bard at the Sisters of the Sands inn, with his younger sidekick Lucky Hunch for pilfering and gambling during this time. Jux was known to infiltrate any towns bank vault he came across and even delved into Ayelid ruins without detection. Kalik can vividly recall the night he met the famed thief. Jux found himself rummaging thru a slightly inebriated Kalik’s pocket for too long, on a full-mooned night and because of his greed and the glimmer of his golden armor in the moonlight. He lost his left pinky fingertip as a lesson! But in return, he gained a new friend, as it was his first time since a child being caught red-handed...
Upon arrival back in the Alik'r after many moons of adventuring, Ras Kalik ventures to Bergama. Visiting The Winking Jackal, he runs into Jux Blackheart, who introduces him to the coin game Crowns vs Forebearers (Heads vs Tails) and Golden Dwemer (RBG).... Jux constantly takes gold from the unfortunate thru theft or gambling, his biggest gambling victim is actually his partner in crime known as Lucky Hunch the Gambler. Lucky doesn't mind losing any gold coins to Jux... as Jux saved him from Altmer slavers in Summerset, by stealing a key and sending him on a boat to the mainland years prior. Lucky spent years in slavery with Khajiits in Summerset and picked up the art of subterfuge, using illusion magic disguises and stealing there.
Kaotik Von’Daemon an outcast, and a half-caste between a Breton mother and a Redguard father. Kaotik become a pariah due to his conjuration of Daedra pets. He was taught healing magic during his childhood years by his Breton mother. His father due to Redguard customs exiled him from the desert, sending him by wagon caravan to be a soldier in the war in Cyrodiil. He happened to meet Kalik while traveling from Alik'r, during this long caravan ride the caravan he was in was ambushed in Bangkorai by a group of bandits. Kalik by chance was also traveling thru this area on his Auridon Warhorse (which was bestowed to him by his friend, Darien Gautier). During this ambush, Kalik was able to rescue five hostages from the bandits. Kaotik was the first rescued, and Ras Kalik also recruited him to be in the Ash'abah tribe. These core Ash'abah tribesmen may never be seen together in travel as they partake in their own adventures but they always know what each other is doing; as they frequent a hideout in northern Bankorai. Their hideout an old Orc castle ruin, is kept watch by Nuzhimeh and she passes messages written between them, and frequently they also enjoy her company and her bed.
The other men rescued were a Dunmer banker, an Imperial mercenary and two other soldiers, an Imperial and a Breton Knight, stating proudly he was an Akavir descendent. One of the Imperials, Cinan, claimed to be related to Abnur Tharn the Battlemage of the Imperial Elder Council (One of Ras Kalik's mentors in the Five Companions). Cinan Tharn was really Abnur's drunkard treasure hunting illegitimate son. He was caught smuggling artifacts out of the Ayleid ruins in Cyrodiil and the elder of the two Imperials was Tyrus Septim a retired Imperial navy battle-mage (now a Lycan mercenary living in the city of Rimmen) and guard to the Tharn family. As much as Abnur Tharn hated his half-sister Euraxia, he dislikes his bas†ard son Cinan more. Tyrus now a ruffian and privateer had been paid by Abnur Tharn to watch over Cinan as much as possible. Cinan Tharn a drunkard, loves to drink at least a quarter barrel of Nord mead before he raids various delves and dungeons for relics to sell on the black market. Cinan also plans to one day, run an illegal gambling ring... which he thinks will net him more gold for his wares.
The Dunmer captive shackled to the Imperials looked familiar to Kalik from his time in Morrowind.... and he recognized him as Tythis Andromo a House Telvanni slave-owner and banker from Vvardenfell. During a rough interrogation to Tythis, Ras Kalik learnt why the bandits accosted him. The racist Dunmer was providing slaves as soldiers for the Three Banner War. The bandits were trying to negotiate a lucrative ransom for Andromo and the Imperials.... Kalik did not need any of this gold and he could never set Tythis free as he did with the two Imperial soldiers. His past involvement with slavery and war crimes, made Kalik's blood boil. He chose not to execute Tythis, as he figured the worse punishment for this former rich and opulent slave owner, is to now be an imprisoned servant for Ras Kalik and the tribe.
Herzog Zwei the Genesis a reknown Imperial/Akavirri battle-mage. His roots going back to Akavir through his mother’s bloodline. (His mother is descended from the Akaviri, through Versidue-Shae, and his Imperial father met her in Hakoshae, while traveling) Herzog earned the nickname "the Genesis" from his father as a child, as he was his mother's first born child, and last, as she tragically died in child-birth.
Herzog was seeking to purchase an artifact from Cinan Tharn, before their capture and was meeting Tyrus while in Rimmen, who introduced him to Cinan. This artifact being the Ayelid artifact; the sword Sinweaver. After their rescue and the exchange of gold to Cinan for the sword he decided to slip away before Ras Kalik could question who he was, and why the Akavir descendant really wanted that sword. Herzog was headed to Nagastani — An Ayleid ruin in eastern Cyrodiil. He had read in scrolls that the Sword would give him magical powers to meet his mothers spirit, if he performed an Ayleid ritual at an old shrine hidden there. Equipped with the artifact sword, he was off to start his own adventure but Ras Kalik, did indeed notice the sword however and instead sent a letter to Jux Blackheart (whom also was interested in Ayleid treasures), to attempt to find Herzog and acquire the sword. (*Azani Blackheart in Elder Scroll's Oblivion is Jux's descendant some 747 years later)
And so the Redguard, Imperial and Akaviri men parted ways ... While Ras Kalik went off to Elsweyr to encounter the latest threat to Tamriel, with Abnur Tharn and Sai Sahan - - DRAGONS!! Little did Ras Kalik know a few people were awaiting him in Senchal besides Sai. A necromancer survived his attack on the Withered Hand, while in Alik'r. The necromancer known as Auriek Siet'ka is also following him to the land of the Khajiits and Cacique the Sage of Ius a Shaman mystic who has become attuned spiritually with Tu'whacca (a Redguard God) and Ius (the Animal God), after being burned severely by the escaped dragons in Elsywer, is awaiting his arrival also. Aurik is a soldier of the Daggerfall Covenant that was introduced to necromancy while in the military, even though this magicka art is not spoken of openly by most of the Military leaders. He came to Alik'r and worked with the Withered Hand before Ras Kalik intervened on their plans. After the defeat of the Withered Hand, he aligned with the Worm Cult, and is constantly adapting and perfecting his necromantic arts.
After his journey to Rimmen, Kalik heads south to Senchal, in the southern regions of Elyswer. This new adventure will also put him on a path to meet a strange Redguard man. The stranger which was infected with an untreated Peyrite disease and also was the exiled from the Order of the New Moon cult, due to his sickness. He originally joined the cult to worship Laatvulon, the green dragon, mistakenly thinking it was the Daedric prince Peyrite. This confused and suffering cultist is known as Tsar al-Bomba and he is on a path to spread the disease. He was originally infected in Orccrest while recruiting members there. Can Ras Kalik and the shaman Cacique cure this poor soul, only time will tell. Little does Tsar al-Bomba know, that his infection is tied to Vampirism, and eventually the desire for blood will take over his mind. Senchal also offers Kalik his latest love interest... Aeliah. Whom he fondly led thru battles with the Dragonguard.
After the trek thru the heat, tropical and desert climate of Northern and Southern Elyswer, Ras Kalik heads north to the cold mountain range of Skyrim. His companion friend Lyris beckons for him with a letter sent by crow...
Movárth Piquine - a former vampire hunter (now infected), within the Fighter's Guild (and a secretive necromancer) was in Skyrim working with the Morthaal Guard. On a patrol mission he was caught in Frewien's ice curse outside of Morthaal with the frozen undead. Movárth's vampiric infection kept him from becoming an undead minion to the curse. He was able to use necromantic ice-magic to encase himself safely until he was freed with Freiwen, when the Vestige Ras Kalik broke the curse.
Uri Ice-Heart - brother of Urfon Ice-Heart. The twin sons of Atli and Oljourn Ice-Heart. The Ice-Heart family are originally from Markarth but now reside on the Jerall Mountain range near Cyrodiil, with their younger sister Araki. The twins had joined the Winterborn Reachmen while living in Markarth. Urfon pushed west to Orsinium with the Winterborn Clan, leaving his family behind. Uri stayed behind with his parents and sister to live in the family cabin for safety, avoiding the Vampire plague infiltrating the Reach. After news reaches him and he hears of Urfon's death... Uri leaves and heads home and is seeking vengeance. Meanwhile, his sister has also moved on to Windhelm to join the Fighter's guild. He will visit his sister, once before going to seek vengeance and she will craft him armor mixed with ice, called Stalhrim armor. Uri fearing death, after his brother's passing, falls victim to the convincing talk of Movárth at a Nordic tavern, and will also becomes a vampire.
{time moves forward through the hour-glass}0 -
xxthir13enxx✭✭✭✭✭
✭
Agreed...Nothing should be Locked behind potential RNG...everything should eventually be possible to purchase through Gem collectionsI grumble about the RNG when I get free crates, and in the few crates I've bought to get gems to buy what I want, but my real rancor is toward them not making Radiant Apex mounts purchasable through gems. They have no idea how many effing crates I would have bought to get that purple psijic steed with gems, as it was the most perfect mount for my main that they've ever made, and I was really distressed that they left that one up to luck, which I lack completely. Gems I could have *bought*, even if it was a handful at a time. Luck I can't buy and will never have. No amount of temptation will make me believe that I'm going to win something, so I give up immediately if it's not purchasable and they missed out on a ton of dumb purchases from me getting gems piled up to grab that thing.
And Everything should be able to be converted to Gems
This likely will be the next stage for them to avoid the whole LootCrate gambling scenario
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Streega✭✭✭✭✭
✭Elwendryll wrote: »Elwendryll wrote: »Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.
Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.
I can understand why you used to do a lot of statistics.
I can't understand why if you did do a loto statistics, you never heard of Bernouilli trials or binomial distributions.
You have 0.15% to get an Apex Radiant mount for each trial, but you don't have 0.15% chance to get a mount after nth trials.
What's at hand here is the calculation of a probability of success after a given number of trials in the case of independent events with given odds.
What are the chances you roll a 6? 0.1667.
What are the chances you roll a 6 after 3 trials?
If you believe it's 0.16667, YOU are the clueless sheep.
Good luck with your research.
Yeah, math debate. Actually, @Streega, I'm in an engineering school, and what I'm talking about is from highschool.
I'm not talking about the chance of getting the loot at the crate number N. But getting at least one reward with N crates which is the same event as not getting nothing for N trials. Simply put. You throw a dice. You have 1/6 chance to get the number 6. You throw it again, you still have 1/6 chance to get 6. So, that's 5/6 chance for each throw to not get a 6. So, if you throw your dice twice, you have 5/6 squared to not get 6 on neither of these throws. You just have to take the probability of the complementary event. That's a Bernoulli trial, and the binomial law, which consists of a serie of Bernoulli trials.
I don't want to be rude, but I noticed a lot of people have problems with statistics, and have really strong *false* opinions on how it works. That's ok, but don't be aggressive
I'm sorry if I sounded rude, I'm just old grumpy cat and I'm bit frustrated that so many ppl walk in the trap. To be clear: I researched actual, already existing data (like the one in google sheet mentioned above), not exactly the probability, so I may be a little off track here. Furthermore it was 20 years ago and I don't work in the field anymore. I'm still pretty sure I'm right - maybe not 100% mathematically, but factually.
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Member of "Guild Masters United"
Master Angler0 -
rexagamemnon✭✭✭✭✭
✭Argonians are some of my least favorite race, so the argonian themed crown crate i didnt get to excited about except the riverwood chicken. But i do support ZOS’s desire to have each race get a bit of the glory for a while. The dark elves, the high elves, the orcs, and now the argonians. What race will be next in dlc/crown crate glory? Who knows, id like to see imperials or nords, or khajit. But with my luck it will be redgaurds or bretons lol0 -
Elsonso✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Elwendryll wrote: »Elwendryll wrote: »Using the data from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316
I did some math. A radiant apex reward has supposedly a chance of dropping roughly equal to 0.17% (Hollowjack season).
You can't guarantee a loot, however, you can get close to it.
According to my calculations, here are the number of crates required to get the associated chance to loot at least 1 radiant apex reward.
2707 crates: 99% chance of looting at least 1 radiant apex.
1354: 90%
815: 75%
408: 50%
170: 25%
As you can see, that's exactly like CP, you have diminishing returns
Bonus: I'm not at home an I don't have my calculator so that's handmade values, just a binomial law. 1-0.9983^x, x being the number of crates, should give you the odds of not getting nothing.
Sigh... your (and folks who posted before you) math is completely wrong. Each crate is a separate "event", so it doesn't matter how much crates you buy, you have exactly the same chance to get a mount every time you open the crate. The calculations you posted above would be correct, if the items you got from crates were removed from the pool - and obviously they are not, hence the "doubles". Statistically, you have the same chance to get a mount in two consecutive crates or get none in 2000.
Let me write it once more: you have EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE to get the item you want EVERY TIME YOU OPEN THE CRATE! It doesn't cumulate! That's the trick, most people don't realise that and they buy hundreds of crates hoping that their chances increase with every crate, but it does not.
Source: I used to do a lot of statistics in my research. If you don't believe me, google it. Or be a clueless sheep, I don't care.
I can understand why you used to do a lot of statistics.
I can't understand why if you did do a loto statistics, you never heard of Bernouilli trials or binomial distributions.
You have 0.15% to get an Apex Radiant mount for each trial, but you don't have 0.15% chance to get a mount after nth trials.
What's at hand here is the calculation of a probability of success after a given number of trials in the case of independent events with given odds.
What are the chances you roll a 6? 0.1667.
What are the chances you roll a 6 after 3 trials?
If you believe it's 0.16667, YOU are the clueless sheep.
Good luck with your research.
Yeah, math debate. Actually, @Streega, I'm in an engineering school, and what I'm talking about is from highschool.
I'm not talking about the chance of getting the loot at the crate number N. But getting at least one reward with N crates which is the same event as not getting nothing for N trials. Simply put. You throw a dice. You have 1/6 chance to get the number 6. You throw it again, you still have 1/6 chance to get 6. So, that's 5/6 chance for each throw to not get a 6. So, if you throw your dice twice, you have 5/6 squared to not get 6 on neither of these throws. You just have to take the probability of the complementary event. That's a Bernoulli trial, and the binomial law, which consists of a serie of Bernoulli trials.
I don't want to be rude, but I noticed a lot of people have problems with statistics, and have really strong *false* opinions on how it works. That's ok, but don't be aggressive
I'm sorry if I sounded rude, I'm just old grumpy cat and I'm bit frustrated that so many ppl walk in the trap. To be clear: I researched actual, already existing data (like the one in google sheet mentioned above), not exactly the probability, so I may be a little off track here. Furthermore it was 20 years ago and I don't work in the field anymore. I'm still pretty sure I'm right - maybe not 100% mathematically, but factually.
I've been using Bernoulli to put a monetary value on the Apex rewards for a couple years now. This is important when people suggest putting them in the Crown Store for direct sale. It shows why ZOS will never do it. They stand to get more money selling them in Crown Crates than they would in the Crown Store. The statistical median price of a Hallowjack Radiant Apex mount, and everything that comes with it, is about 140,000 Crowns. About $1000.2 -
Irylia✭✭✭✭✭
✭I do agree that for $150 you should be guaranteed 2-3 apex mounts, but i usually get just 1, or none. Only got 2 out of the Wild Hunt crates.
If you feel spending any amount of money at all 'guarantees' you a rare drop, then you really don't understand what the words 'random' and 'gambling' mean.
The only thing you are guaranteed to have when buying Crown Crates, is some Crown Crates.
I'm sorry for the OP, or anyone else, who didn't get the drops they want, but complaining about it on the forums seems a little entitled to me.
Why so salty? Why comment if you're not gonna add anything to the discussion other than animosity?
Who me?0 -
TelvanniWizard✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭DMuehlhausen wrote: »
They are. It´s paying real currency for a chance to get some price. Because people want the price, nobody buys crates for the potions, so don´t start with the "you always get something" story. It´s hands down gambling.3 -
Malamar1229✭✭✭✭✭
✭I spent upwards 800 dollars on scalecaller crates when they were first released and ended up getting all 3 radiant apex mounts. Imo it was the best season for radians, but when I think back...it was a waste of money for a cosmetic item. Its sickening actually.2 -
f047ys3v3n✭✭✭✭✭
✭GreenhaloX wrote: »Before you call me an idiot and stick a kick me sign on my back.. I know, I know, but I really would like to get at least one, or two, of the Radiant Apex Award mounts from these current Scalecaller crates. That Galvanic Storm Steed, Dragonfire wolf and Shadow-Rider Senche look so cool. After 60 crates, not one ffing Radiant Apex reward. Only got one damn mount from the Apex reward; rest are all crap potions, poisons, scrolls and shitt repeatedly. WTF.. 60 ffing crates/ 20k crowns wasted. You would think we would have received at least 1 or 2 from the Radiant Apex and a few from the Apex; mounts specifically. I feel like (if I could) shove all these crates up somebody's arse over there in the Zen and ZOS land. Damn, this shitt needs rework and improved bad.. Had a thumb back up for the recent fix to the 2H reticle issue. Now this.. thumb is back down. Goodness..
The drop rate to get any of the radiant mounts is .15% it is well documented by the wonderful crowncrates.com add on. By this data you really don't have much to complain about with fewer than 750 crates purchased.
If you were unaware of that you are now.
If you were aware of that but fell into the unfortunate tendency of the human brain to feel deep down inside that all RNG behaves in a 50/50 way because you either win or loose, hopefully this experience will help. If so, you learned a really cheap lesson with 60 crown crates. Many people fail to learn the lesson after a $10k Vegas bender. In fact, the city is built upon that reality. It is also the reason that most major religions forbid gambling even when they enthusiastically endorse a variety of other practices we find far more distasteful today.I am mostly pleased with the current state of ESO. Please do continue to ban cheaters though and you guys have to find out who is duping gold and how because the economy is currently non-functional.0 -
DMuehlhausen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭TelvanniWizard wrote: »DMuehlhausen wrote: »
They are. It´s paying real currency for a chance to get some price. Because people want the price, nobody buys crates for the potions, so don´t start with the "you always get something" story. It´s hands down gambling.
That's just it though. If you are truly gambling you have a chance to lose everything without getting anything in return. The crates you are guaranteed a return on your money, just maybe not what you wanted, but that doesn't make it gambling.0
