These crown crates.. I feel like..

Mureel

Hippie4927 wrote: »

Sorry for your bad luck, OP.

Tonight I bought only 15 crates and to my surprise.........







I have wanted that mount ever since I first saw it but wasn't willing to spend much trying to get it. Usually RNG hates me but tonight I got lucky.

AWWW you deserve it though Hippie! You're always the coolest to people!

Latios

Kamanakai wrote: »

"Just do the math: If an apex mount is around 2%, that means it's around 26% chance to get one per 15 crates. If you buy 150 dollars worth of crates, which should give you 75(5 x 15), you have close to 85% chance to get at least one apex mount every time you do so. In my opinion, those are very low odds. You should get much more than 400 gems though, so just pick whatever apex you want."

It doesn't work like that. It is 2% every time you open a crate.

if you consider every time you buy a crate as an isolated event, then yes, that’s it.

However, think about it this way: you have a box with 1 red ball and 9 blue balls. You can’t check the color beforehand, and you must take one ball out, check the color, then put it back inside and repeat the process.

If you look at each time you take one ball separately, it’s 10% per try. However, if you try 10 times in a row, the odds of NONE of them having the red ball is 9/10^10, which would amount to about 34% chance. In other words, each time you try 10 times in a row, there is a 66% chance that at least ONE of the 10 tries will be the red ball, which is 10% chance per try by itself.

That’s the same with the crown crates. If each apex mount is 2% to obtain, then what are the odds of at least one appearing per 15 crates? Do the same math and you’ll understand where the numbers came from. That’s probability.

Bloodystab

I am not even sorry that you are losing money for virtual items that do not even belong to you and will disappear forever from the day the servers are closed.

If people did not buy this ***, maybe devs would focus on making good games.

AlienSlof

The daftest thing of all is: if the mount in question was sold directly at 4k or more crowns, you'd complain and say that's too much for one mount, yet people throw money at these silly crates without even considering how much they're spending - and either don't get the mount they really want, or it cost them many times more than the most expensive direct purchase mount.

Makes no sense to me.

drkfrontiers

Guy in the video sounds alot like Shia LaBeouf. Just putting it out there XD

Radiance

AlienSlof wrote: »

The daftest thing of all is: if the mount in question was sold directly at 4k or more crowns, you'd complain and say that's too much for one mount, yet people throw money at these silly crates without even considering how much they're spending - and either don't get the mount they really want, or it cost them many times more than the most expensive direct purchase mount.
Makes no sense to me.

I bought a round of the first few Crate seasons and swore off them for good.
I think if they sold them outright, they wouldn't have to jack up the prices because more people would actually buy it and be satisfied with their purchase. It's the easiest way to do business yet they prefer more devious methods specifically targeting people with no impulse control. Gambling or not, this is an abusive practice and absolutely obscene.

Perwulf

Noticed that most of the people with radiant apex are top players? Coincidence?

Coding in this game is bonkers let alone have them make a purest form of RNG that is equivalence to real luck. There would obviously be biased and favoritism within this system.

IronWooshu

O_LYKOS wrote: »

Some of us have spent hundreds on crown crates and never had a radiant mount. I've only ever had one.
Its a gamble. You want something. Doesn't mean you're going to get it.

Its such a horrible buisness model but whales like the OP make it impossible for ZOS to change it.

Minyassa

I grumble about the RNG when I get free crates, and in the few crates I've bought to get gems to buy what I want, but my real rancor is toward them not making Radiant Apex mounts purchasable through gems. They have no idea how many effing crates I would have bought to get that purple psijic steed with gems, as it was the most perfect mount for my main that they've ever made, and I was really distressed that they left that one up to luck, which I lack completely. Gems I could have *bought*, even if it was a handful at a time. Luck I can't buy and will never have. No amount of temptation will make me believe that I'm going to win something, so I give up immediately if it's not purchasable and they missed out on a ton of dumb purchases from me getting gems piled up to grab that thing.

Arthg

Assuming the chance to get an Apex radiant mount is 0.15%:
the probability P of getting an Apex radiant mount after buying n crates is defined by the following formula:

P = 1 - (1 - 0.0015)^n

If you buy 15 crates, you have a 2.23% chance to get a mount.

In other words: you need 462 crates to have slightly more than 50% chance to get one.

You get 15 crates for 5K crowns.
21K crowns currently sit at 125€ (I'm a Euro guy).
You need to fork out 1,000€ for a guaranteed 50% chance to get an Apex radiant mount.

Or rather: 1K€ for a 50% chance to fail.


Don't effing gamble.

ATomiX96

y'all should stop giving ZOS money, so they actually have to start working on the gameplay rather getting income from whales which waste hundreds of dollars on *** RNG cosmetic lootboxes.
Its the same ripoff like every lootbox in any other game.

jainiadral

Just looking at some of the calculations and the money involved is giving me heart palpitations Then again, you're talking to someone who spends a grand total of $5.00 - $10.00 on nickel slots during a Vegas weekend and who grits her teeth when one specific set of relatives gives her and her hubs a card full of scratchers for Xmas.

The free crates we used to get as login rewards gave me very little I actually wanted along with piles of garbage, so I'm trying to imagine spending vast sums on them. I can't. To me those samples screamed "Caveat emptor!"

Vildebill

Odds are not with you, 60 crates aren't statistically even close
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=897651316

Tabbycat

That is a lot of money to spend on gamble crates. I wish I had your disposable income, OP.

bearbelly

Kamanakai wrote: »

"Just do the math: If an apex mount is around 2%, that means it's around 26% chance to get one per 15 crates. If you buy 150 dollars worth of crates, which should give you 75(5 x 15), you have close to 85% chance to get at least one apex mount every time you do so. In my opinion, those are very low odds. You should get much more than 400 gems though, so just pick whatever apex you want."

It doesn't work like that. It is 2% every time you open a crate.

I was just going to say that. It's the same chance with every single crate you open.
Buying more does not increase your odds.
A guy who buys one crate has the same chance at getting a radiant apex mount as the guy who buys 150 crates.
@Hippie4927 even illustrated that point above.

That said, I feel your pain, OP. *pats him on the back*

Reistr_the_Unbroken

Riverlynn wrote: »

MaxJrFTW wrote: »

Why so salty? Why comment if you're not gonna add anything to the discussion other than animosity?

Oh dear, if you think my comments are 'salty animosity', then you'd better stay out of the internet. You won't like it one bit.

As I said, I really do feel sorry for anyone who gambles on the crates and loses, but it IS gambling, with the inherent risk (99% certainty in this case) of losing.

And I commented because this is a public forum that invites opinions and discussion. Sorry if that means I'm not allowed to disagree.

Losing? I bought four scalecaller crates on Thursday, opened all four and got the same dog I had 3 TIMES IN A ROW-
Those extra gems raised me up enough to get the Great Elk Mount 👍

nckg84

It is gambling and should be regulated as such. The laws will come hard soon on these game companies. Hopefully they will get fine's in the billions as the automative industries has gotten.

MajBludd

Wouldn't it be nice if they went back to putting things for sale in the crown store instead of the dumb ass crates?

It's a crazy idea, but imagine being able to buy what you want?
Sure, make those radiant apex mounts pricey, but if you are willing to spend $150, 5k crowns won't bother you much.

You'd save money, and.... get what you want. Crazy, right?

But ZoS would rather go the other way and take advantage of ppl with compulsive behaviors. A fool and his money are soon parted.

vamp_emily

I get bored when the servers are down, and just thought of a funny/cool/exciting way for Zeni to make money.

Instead of crown crates have live auctions to sell rare mounts. Higher bigger wins!

I think it would be fun watching how high some of the people would bid to get a mount they want.

zaria

AlienatedGoat wrote: »

redspecter23 wrote: »

I'm not sure you realize how rare radiant apex mounts are. A standard apex reward is somewhere around 4.5% chance. A radiant apex is even more RNG on top of that. 60 crates isn't really a lot of crates to have an expectation of one radiant, let alone two. You would be ridiculously lucky to have pulled 2 radiant apex from 60 crates.

Apex is closer to 2% drop chance.

Radiant Apex is about 0.15% drop chance.

Crown Crates Spreadsheet

Yes so average 667 crates to get one, of the 99000 crates in the log 14 gave radiant apex.
Apex is around 2% so 60 crates should probably give you one.

nckg84

MajBludd wrote: »

Wouldn't it be nice if they went back to putting things for sale in the crown store instead of the dumb ass crates?

It's a crazy idea, but imagine being able to buy what you want?
Sure, make those radiant apex mounts pricey, but if you are willing to spend $150, 5k crowns won't bother you much.

You'd save money, and.... get what you want. Crazy, right?

But ZoS would rather go the other way and take advantage of ppl with compulsive behaviors. A fool and his money are soon parted.

It would actually be a better business model that would generate more cash in the long run. Only problem is convincing your investors about there returns.

Carbonised

Never, ever try and get a radiant apex mount. Just don't. Pretend they don't even exist.

I don't particularly like it, but I do buy some crates from time to time (not excessively so), and I like getting the odd hats, costumes, pets and such from them. I find that I usually have enough gems to buy the few items I like, and some times even enough gems to buy one of the normal apex mounts, which is fine.

But anything that cannot be bought for gems, like the radiant apex mounts? Never, ever try and go for them. If you get one, fine, be happy, but don't go into it expecting or even hoping to find one. You might as well just hand over your wallet to ZOS right away. The odds are out there, and the odds are terrible.

Personally I have gotten 2 radiant apex mounts, which I guess is kind of lucky considering the small amount of crates I have bought, but I have never specifically tried to get one of them (and I don't particularly like any of them either). Unfortunately, you throwing away that kind of money, and I know others do as well, just exacerbates the issue, and teaches them that this is a viable monetizing strategy.

MajBludd

@nckg84 of course, after all its about the investors making a profit and not making a quality product.

In the short term crown crates= investor profit.
Fixing long term bugs and other game issues does not equal quick returns or possibly any returns.

vamp_emily

MajBludd wrote: »

Wouldn't it be nice if they went back to putting things for sale in the crown store instead of the dumb ass crates?

The other day I logged in and was looking at the crown store. Seen a new mount.. 400g. I was thinking "Sold!". But then i noticed it was not 400g, it was 400 gems.

I really think the community would be happier and zeni can sell more if they just put stuff in the crown store at "reasonable" prices.

GreenhaloX

Orange_Islands31 wrote: »

GreenhaloX wrote: »

Before you call me an idiot and stick a kick me sign on my back.. I know, I know, but I really would like to get at least one, or two, of the Radiant Apex Award mounts from these current Scalecaller crates. That Galvanic Storm Steed, Dragonfire wolf and Shadow-Rider Senche look so cool. After 60 crates, not one ffing Radiant Apex reward. Only got one damn mount from the Apex reward; rest are all crap potions, poisons, scrolls and shitt repeatedly. WTF.. 60 ffing crates/ 20k crowns wasted. You would think we would have received at least 1 or 2 from the Radiant Apex and a few from the Apex; mounts specifically. I feel like (if I could) shove all these crates up somebody's arse over there in the Zen and ZOS land. Damn, this shitt needs rework and improved bad. . Had a thumb back up for the recent fix to the 2H reticle issue. Now this.. thumb is back down. Goodness..

^This is the definition of buyer's remorse, ZOS.

Like when someone goes to a used car dealership and bought a car there and later discovered it's a lemon.. yeah? Ha ha

luen79rwb17_ESO

Oops looks like somebody bit the bait

IrishRonD

My only beef with the Crown Crates is when you get something you already have, like a pet or mount, and they only give you a few gems for it. Come on ZOS, give us the full gem amount for it. Nothing like seeing a mount or something and then seeing that you already have it and get 5 gems, when the thing is worth 400 gems in the store.

GreenhaloX

Mureel wrote: »

Hippie4927 wrote: »

Sorry for your bad luck, OP.

Tonight I bought only 15 crates and to my surprise.........







I have wanted that mount ever since I first saw it but wasn't willing to spend much trying to get it. Usually RNG hates me but tonight I got lucky.

AWWW you deserve it though Hippie! You're always the coolest to people!

Yeah.. oooh, sooo sweet. Good for you. @Hippie4927.

But, tell me.. how did you hacked it..? That's just awesome from one set of crown crates. Yup, somebody likes you.. ha ha

MajBludd

@vamp_emily exactly. They lost a sale because you couldn't buy it using crowns.

Also, hello, Em. Did you unblock me yet, lol

GreenhaloX

Carbonised wrote: »

Never, ever try and get a radiant apex mount. Just don't. Pretend they don't even exist.

I don't particularly like it, but I do buy some crates from time to time (not excessively so), and I like getting the odd hats, costumes, pets and such from them. I find that I usually have enough gems to buy the few items I like, and some times even enough gems to buy one of the normal apex mounts, which is fine.

But anything that cannot be bought for gems, like the radiant apex mounts? Never, ever try and go for them. If you get one, fine, be happy, but don't go into it expecting or even hoping to find one. You might as well just hand over your wallet to ZOS right away. The odds are out there, and the odds are terrible.

Personally I have gotten 2 radiant apex mounts, which I guess is kind of lucky considering the small amount of crates I have bought, but I have never specifically tried to get one of them (and I don't particularly like any of them either). Unfortunately, you throwing away that kind of money, and I know others do as well, just exacerbates the issue, and teaches them that this is a viable monetizing strategy.

Good thing about us humans.. we tend to learn from our mistakes; at least, us sane people. Try something first, and it's not so pleasing, then won't do that again.