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Let's talk about the MMR...

  • ecru
    ecru
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thogard wrote: »
    ecru wrote: »
    also when are your new values implemented? after each game? when the leader board resets? I feel the queues are better than last week.

    If they're like every other game, the values are adjusted after every single match. I also still find it really unlikely it's based off of anything other than win/loss because a system like that would just be way too complicated to code and implement correctly.

    If people care enough they should be tracking their win% to figure out if the system is actually creating good outcomes or if it's broken. If you're winning half of your games (it should be closer to 1 in 3), especially if you're solo queueing, it's probably slightly broken. If you're winning more than half or 2 in 3, it's very broken. Organized premades may be outliers when it comes to their win percentage at this point so they probably shouldn't be included in your individual win percentage.

    I track everything. Win percent has nothing to do with it.

    I've never heard of a matchmaking system that does not take whether you win or lose into account and weight that heavier than every other factor, if there are even other factors considered, so there's a pretty good chance you're wrong.

    sorry lol
    all trials cleared on HM
  • doctor_refuel
    doctor_refuel
    Soul Shriven
    Altough I agree with you, ecru, that any kind of proper MMR or ELO needs to take performance into account, this isn't a religious war and we aren't fighting for our faiths. Thogard is simply publishing his data and findings and tries to analyze them to come up with a solution to a perceived problem. You should be more appreciative of this. And according to his data, this system doesn't take performance into account that much. If I understood it correctly, a well-performing individual like Gilliam might get to that troubling point faster than for example me who can usually achieve like 2k score on DM and next to nothing in other modes because I don't know the maps yet...

    Of course, Thogard could be wrong, we could all be wrong, but that can only be known after developer confirmation or extensive testing, analysing and reverse engineering. It really will not be decided on hearsay.

    I started playing BGs with Summerset, so my MMR is probably really low and BGs are so far great fun about 7-8 out of 10 matches on PC-EU, although I'm seeing similar people in there and got the same premade twice in a row once. I hope the issue you've highlighted gets addressed, to me, the easiest solution would be to implement MMR decline, if there is indeed none or significantly speed it up if it's so negligible you think there is none. So it would be either time dependant or performance dependant - third place might decrease it a little bit.

    Something like that, so players who play a lot of solo BGs can either timeout with one character and play a week or so with another one or after being battered by good premades several times have higher chance for fun matches again. MMR gain could also be finetuned, but that seems harder and more complicated to do. Messing with formulas is never easy and you can break more than you fix, giving us a flat MMR decrease for every 3rd place and every day sounds doable to me. BGs aren't exactly competitive so I doubt people care how high their MMR is, it serves only for the purpose of matchmaking and if enjoying and playing BGs a lot gets you to the point that BGs can't be enjoyed anymore, that's one hell of a design flaw.
  • Fake Remedy
    Fake Remedy
    ✭✭✭
    ecru wrote: »
    also when are your new values implemented? after each game? when the leader board resets? I feel the queues are better than last week.

    If they're like every other game, the values are adjusted after every single match. I also still find it really unlikely it's based off of anything other than win/loss because a system like that would just be way too complicated to code and implement correctly.

    If people care enough they should be tracking their win% to figure out if the system is actually creating good outcomes or if it's broken. If you're winning half of your games (it should be closer to 1 in 3), especially if you're solo queueing, it's probably slightly broken. If you're winning more than half or 2 in 3, it's very broken. Organized premades may be outliers when it comes to their win percentage at this point so they probably shouldn't be included in your individual win percentage.

    Not sure it does. I've been playing solo with 15 minute+ queues the past two days. seen no change at all.

    Being blocked out of battlegrounds. Atm. Full group, duo and solo. Not waiting more than 20 minutes to play one game. fml
    [EU PC] @fake_remedy
    DC Difficult Situation
    EP Fake Remedy
    AD Colonic Irrigation
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  • DivineFirstYOLO
    DivineFirstYOLO
    ✭✭✭✭
    Thogard wrote: »
    Oh and I forgot the most important bullet point...

    What would you recommend we do to fix it?
    The biggest problem right now is the WAITING. We have 12 people with high MMRs waiting to fight each other...we know they'll fight each other as long as no new players queue... it's just frustrating that the BG queue finder makes them wait long enough for the difference in their MMRs to be "acceptable"

    They need to be more flexible with how quickly players can be matched up against other players with a lower (or higher) MMR, and I would strongly suggest that they make that a function of how many people are queueing for BGs.

    For example, if there are 60 people "in queue" then the system will incrementally increase its tolerance for MMR mismatches every five minutes. If there are 30 people in queue, the system will incrementally increase its tolerance for MMR mismatches every three minutes. If there are 20 people in queue, the system will incrementally increase its tolerance for MMR mismatches every two minutes... etc.

    There are actually better ways to do it (make it logarithmic for the higher MMR players...) but I've already gotten so nerdy in this thread that I don't think going deeper on this concept would be appreciated lol. I also suspect that going down that route could very well end up with me describing the old system (if it's fully logarithmic it might be indistinguishable from the old system)


    100% agree...absolutely frustrating to wait for so long... waited 30 mins in a 4 man group..after that waited 20 more mins in a 2 man group...then buddy rage quit and i ended up waiting for another 10 mins until i said to myself "*** it im out too".

    After that i relogged to a new character with which i havent been playing too much in BGs and i got into match after 1 min.
    The system is bad.. ye it would be nice to play against decent players, but even nicer it would be to be able to play at all.


    Zerg Squad
    PC - EU


    "Sometimes you must hurt in order to know, fall in order to grow, lose in order to gain because life's greatest lessons are learned through pain."

  • Cinbri
    Cinbri
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    Well, no matter if solo/duo or full premade, with 40min of re queue during primetime:
    que.png
    Edited by Cinbri on May 30, 2018 2:54PM
  • ecru
    ecru
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cinbri wrote: »
    Well, no matter if solo/duo or full premade, with 40min of re queue during primetime:
    que.png

    You sure this isn't just the buggy queue system? Regardless of what I'm doing, if I'm in the queue for longer than 10 minutes I just requeue. ESO's queues aren't reliable enough to wait out a long queue like that IMO, there's no way to know if the queue will pop or if you'll be queued for the next five hours.
    all trials cleared on HM
  • Cinbri
    Cinbri
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    ecru wrote: »
    Cinbri wrote: »
    Well, no matter if solo/duo or full premade, with 40min of re queue during primetime:
    que.png

    You sure this isn't just the buggy queue system? Regardless of what I'm doing, if I'm in the queue for longer than 10 minutes I just requeue. ESO's queues aren't reliable enough to wait out a long queue like that IMO, there's no way to know if the queue will pop or if you'll be queued for the next five hours.

    I requed for 40min before deciding to stop doing it and see how fast it find match. Coz re que not helping me at all and my timer after update is 40+min between matches. Played bg minly since morrowind but now literally cant do it and have to go cyro.
    Idk if this is result of:
    mmr.jpg
  • Thogard
    Thogard
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    ecru wrote: »
    Thogard wrote: »
    ecru wrote: »
    also when are your new values implemented? after each game? when the leader board resets? I feel the queues are better than last week.

    If they're like every other game, the values are adjusted after every single match. I also still find it really unlikely it's based off of anything other than win/loss because a system like that would just be way too complicated to code and implement correctly.

    If people care enough they should be tracking their win% to figure out if the system is actually creating good outcomes or if it's broken. If you're winning half of your games (it should be closer to 1 in 3), especially if you're solo queueing, it's probably slightly broken. If you're winning more than half or 2 in 3, it's very broken. Organized premades may be outliers when it comes to their win percentage at this point so they probably shouldn't be included in your individual win percentage.

    I track everything. Win percent has nothing to do with it.

    I've never heard of a matchmaking system that does not take whether you win or lose into account and weight that heavier than every other factor, if there are even other factors considered, so there's a pretty good chance you're wrong.

    sorry lol

    You aren’t wrong my friend.

    But then again, how many of those other games have their leaderboards completely ignore the win rate too?
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • TheYKcid
    TheYKcid
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    My current record for time spent queuing in Summerset is 2 hours and 35 minutes before getting a single pop.

    During that entire duration, I observed about 4 friends on my list (with ostensibly lower MMR than me, but higher than average, being avid BGers) almost constantly ingame. They were queuing solo, and spread across a couple of different matches simultaneously.

    They were also constantly put in a team of 3, getting rolled by full teams and/or premades, and had faith that I would be queued-in to level the playing field.

    Needless to say that never happened.

    So to summarize, we had:
    • Mutiple concurrent matches with available player slots
    • 3-man teams vs. full/premade teams
    • one poor soul queuing for over 2 hours
    ... and the new "fair" queue system saw absolutely nothing wrong with any of this.

    I appreciate that the devs tried to address the glaring grouping imbalances of previous patches, but the implementation has been an absolute disaster

    The mechanisms proposed here do seem to align quite consistently with my experiences though, so hopefully we can get a fix now we [possibly] know where the problems lie.
    Edited by TheYKcid on May 30, 2018 4:03PM
    PC/NA__Daggerfall Covenant__Vivec
    Karmic-Chameleon — Argonian Stamblade
    Kaladin Chalhoub — Redguard Stamblade
    Kalaron Caemor — Altmer Magsorc
    .
  • ecru
    ecru
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cinbri wrote: »
    ecru wrote: »
    Cinbri wrote: »
    Well, no matter if solo/duo or full premade, with 40min of re queue during primetime:
    que.png

    You sure this isn't just the buggy queue system? Regardless of what I'm doing, if I'm in the queue for longer than 10 minutes I just requeue. ESO's queues aren't reliable enough to wait out a long queue like that IMO, there's no way to know if the queue will pop or if you'll be queued for the next five hours.

    I requed for 40min before deciding to stop doing it and see how fast it find match. Coz re que not helping me at all and my timer after update is 40+min between matches. Played bg minly since morrowind but now literally cant do it and have to go cyro.
    Idk if this is result of:
    mmr.jpg

    It might be. If your ELO is calculated based on previous wins/losses before the patch, your 93% win rate would lead me to believe you'd be in the top 1% and would have a hard time getting a queue. I was hoping zos would have given everyone a fresh start, but it looks like that might not have been the case.

    That said, anyone having a 93% win rate with that many games in instanced pvp is a really good example of how necessary a matchmaking system was.
    all trials cleared on HM
  • TheYKcid
    TheYKcid
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    Another horror story I thought I'd share:

    Got queued into a match yesterday, and the teams initially had 2/3/4 players (preventing the match from starting due to the minimum requirement of 3 on a team). So everyone eagerly waited for additions.

    10 minutes later, this figure had not changed at all, and people began to leave, thus cancelling the match.

    The current system is focusing too rigidly on getting the planets and stars to align for a perfectly-matched MMR distribution on all teams, at the expense of facilitating playable matches that form in a reasonable amount of time.

    The time-based MMR attenuating mechanic needs to have its time interval reduced. Or the magnitude of the effect tuned-up. Hell, or both!
    Edited by TheYKcid on May 30, 2018 4:01PM
    PC/NA__Daggerfall Covenant__Vivec
    Karmic-Chameleon — Argonian Stamblade
    Kaladin Chalhoub — Redguard Stamblade
    Kalaron Caemor — Altmer Magsorc
    .
  • LokoMatic
    LokoMatic
    ✭✭✭
    Shoutout to @Thogard for taking the time to analyze the data and put this together. Certainly has perplexed myself among
    many other players as to how the que works and how the matchmaking is assembled.

    That being said, I think there is a calculation that we are overlooking for overall MMR and how it is integrated into matchmaking.

    I hope this information helps!

    Note: I have played all my BG matches on 1 character, and have been in more than 1,000 instances overall.

    For the first 500 or so BG matches I played I specifically sought to complete the objective. Assuming we won 90% of those matches, we would be designated into the "High MMR" pool where other people with high win rates would be placed.

    After that, I would solo que and constantly run into pre-mades, while my team had sub 720 CP'ers and some low levels. In many instances I would run into the same pre-made every match over and over which obviously gets old when paired with 2 potatoes.

    Now, the goal has switched from objective based play to straight team deathwatch, only trying to maximize damage, kills, and assists. Since this, I have played maybe another 500 games but have won considerably less matches in an attempt to have the highest KD / dmg output.

    Even after completely disregarding the objective and whether or not we win or lose, I am still constantly matched in the same exact way. There has to be some kind of input from overall statistics that has an influence on the matchmaking other than just winning or losing, because now it is constant. If I have a K/D over 5 in 10 straight matches, and am top 2 in damage, but lose every one, I am still matched with the same pre-mades. Is this because the pop is low? No. I have had friends que at the same time and end up in different lobbies that I'll never see the light of, while I sit waiting in que. I thought by playing so many matches it would somehow dilute naturally due to losing more games, but it seems that the overall score I put up alongside of damage and medals does have an effect.

    Now will this change when it is straight Team Deathmatch? There has to be some other input to how MMR is placed based off of performance, rather than just the end result.
    Harbingers of Death
    Poison Injection
    Cp 910+

    Dark Elf DK - Grand Overlord - (Xbox) NA - 129K Kills
    Orc Stamblade - Level 10 (Xbox)
    Argonian Templar - Level 23 (PC) (Auriels Bow Graduate (Retired))
  • ecru
    ecru
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    LokoMatic wrote: »
    Shoutout to @Thogard for taking the time to analyze the data and put this together. Certainly has perplexed myself among
    many other players as to how the que works and how the matchmaking is assembled.

    That being said, I think there is a calculation that we are overlooking for overall MMR and how it is integrated into matchmaking.

    I hope this information helps!

    Note: I have played all my BG matches on 1 character, and have been in more than 1,000 instances overall.

    For the first 500 or so BG matches I played I specifically sought to complete the objective. Assuming we won 90% of those matches, we would be designated into the "High MMR" pool where other people with high win rates would be placed.

    After that, I would solo que and constantly run into pre-mades, while my team had sub 720 CP'ers and some low levels. In many instances I would run into the same pre-made every match over and over which obviously gets old when paired with 2 potatoes.

    Now, the goal has switched from objective based play to straight team deathwatch, only trying to maximize damage, kills, and assists. Since this, I have played maybe another 500 games but have won considerably less matches in an attempt to have the highest KD / dmg output.

    Even after completely disregarding the objective and whether or not we win or lose, I am still constantly matched in the same exact way. There has to be some kind of input from overall statistics that has an influence on the matchmaking other than just winning or losing, because now it is constant. If I have a K/D over 5 in 10 straight matches, and am top 2 in damage, but lose every one, I am still matched with the same pre-mades. Is this because the pop is low? No. I have had friends que at the same time and end up in different lobbies that I'll never see the light of, while I sit waiting in que. I thought by playing so many matches it would somehow dilute naturally due to losing more games, but it seems that the overall score I put up alongside of damage and medals does have an effect.

    Now will this change when it is straight Team Deathmatch? There has to be some other input to how MMR is placed based off of performance, rather than just the end result.

    Since you said you've played 500+ games, I think what's happening here is that your k-factor has adjusted down very low due to playing/winning a lot of games, leading to your ELO not moving very much with each loss. K-factor is generally adjusted downwards for players who both win a lot and who have played a lot of games, while players who haven't won a lot or have played very few games have a larger k-factor, leading to larger changes in ELO with each win or loss.

    Example: You start at 1500 ELO but climb to 3500 ELO after 500+ games with a very high win percentage. Your k-factor is low because of your high win rate/high rating. You lose one game, you lose 2 ELO. You lose ten more games, you lose only 20-25 ELO. The matchmaking system is very "sure" of your rating due to your previous record and you will not start losing more than 2-3 ELO per game unless you keep losing repeatedly to lower ELO players.

    Another player may start at 1500 ELO but only have 10-15 games played leading to a high k-factor, and may lose or gain 10, 15, or even 20 ELO per win or loss until that player's rating rises and their k-factor decreased. Basically, if you're at or close to the average rating, there is leeway to gain substantial amounts of ELO as your performance improves.

    Now, from what I understand there generally isn't a way to raise your k-factor in any of these matchmaking systems (ELO, Glicko, etc) if your performance has been consistently good over a period of time. The logic behind all of this is the idea that players only get better, not worse. It makes sense, but if you're trying to sandbag and lower your rating after you've won too many games and settled in with a low k-factor, well, you're SOL.

    edit: In Rift, baseline was 1500 and my ELO was 3500-4k depending on my character. Very few players were this high, but being this high meant that my k-factor was so low that often I would only lose 1 ELO per loss. I was essentially stuck there forever and there was really no way out. The system wasn't wrong--that was where I was supposed to be, but it made for some long queue times and painful matches. IIRC Rift used Glicko-2.
    Edited by ecru on May 30, 2018 4:49PM
    all trials cleared on HM
  • LokoMatic
    LokoMatic
    ✭✭✭
    That makes sense. I wasn't ever trying to sandbag intentionally, rather just my observation as to how it has effected (or not effected) matchmaking.

    My end goal always has been and always will be to dominate every enemy I come across.

    That being said, since I am on console I still have yet to experience the new matchmaking with the summerset patch. Maybe something else will change, but I doubt it knowing I'll only be queing up for deathmatch.
    Harbingers of Death
    Poison Injection
    Cp 910+

    Dark Elf DK - Grand Overlord - (Xbox) NA - 129K Kills
    Orc Stamblade - Level 10 (Xbox)
    Argonian Templar - Level 23 (PC) (Auriels Bow Graduate (Retired))
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    ✭✭✭
    Ecru
    LokoMatic wrote: »
    That makes sense. I wasn't ever trying to sandbag intentionally, rather just my observation as to how it has effected (or not effected) matchmaking.

    My end goal always has been and always will be to dominate every enemy I come across.

    That being said, since I am on console I still have yet to experience the new matchmaking with the summerset patch. Maybe something else will change, but I doubt it knowing I'll only be queing up for deathmatch.

    Oh boy are you in for a surprise with the new system .
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • LokoMatic
    LokoMatic
    ✭✭✭
    ^^^ This is what I hear lol.
    Harbingers of Death
    Poison Injection
    Cp 910+

    Dark Elf DK - Grand Overlord - (Xbox) NA - 129K Kills
    Orc Stamblade - Level 10 (Xbox)
    Argonian Templar - Level 23 (PC) (Auriels Bow Graduate (Retired))
  • Fake Remedy
    Fake Remedy
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    @ZOS_GinaBruno Can we just get an official statement on the OP already?!

    Your regular battleground community (most of whom are eso+ members) are being blocked/denied entry from the only content they enjoy from your game. Both solo or grouped.

    Full group/trio/duo has been a no-go. Spent most the last two days, solo in 24 minute+ queues. As a healer. Being teamed up with potatoes, losing vs half decent duos/trios. Queue time hasn't dropped. If anything I'd say its gone up 5 minute+.
    [EU PC] @fake_remedy
    DC Difficult Situation
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  • Bfish22090
    Bfish22090
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    maybe
    @ZOS_BrianWheeler
    can explain the new MMR system

  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    ✭✭✭
    On the positive side though, when I do queue as a premade, we’re getting the most experienced opponents. Pug stomping isn’t what it used to be and I now have 0 guilt associated with queueing as a premade... it’s just the delays that bug me.

    @ecru what server and platform are you on?

    Your view of ELO is great. That is how ELO should work. But there’s a difference between how it should be and how it is, and it’ll be easy for me to prove it to you if you’re on PC NA
    Edited by Thogard on May 30, 2018 6:37PM
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • Millz
    Millz
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    Yeah every game that has competitive match making seems to have this problem, thus forcing you to que with at least one other person to get some what of an edge. I think what @ecru mentioned with just a win lose factor would be easiest. I also believe that they should factor 2 mans and 3 mans in better or just re do the whole thing poggers
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    ✭✭✭
    sPDAIF2.png
    They end up getting put in exactly the same matches if i queue as a premade, but if I'm on stamden it takes longer to get a match. The stamden, queueing solo, waits longer to get into the same match that my magplar queueing in a premade would get into.

    Note; my magplar's losses all tend to be in CTR / Chaos ball because neither I nor anyone i group with care about those game modes :(

    You can really tell how frustrating it is by all the losses on my stamden... that's me solo queueing against premades.

    The wins are with me joining a premade to fight the premades that are running that stomp me solo... but i still have really long queue times either way.

    waiting 20 min to get stomped by a premade when you're solo is no bueno. Especially if you know the guys on the premade that's stomping you and you know that they also waited 20 min.
    Edited by Thogard on May 30, 2018 8:04PM
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • PemPem
    PemPem
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    @Thogard Mind me asking what that addon is called that shows all that information?
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    ✭✭✭
    PemPem wrote: »
    @Thogard Mind me asking what that addon is called that shows all that information?

    PvPMeter

    have to type it in exactly like that, with no space, to find it.
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • PhoenixGrey
    PhoenixGrey
    ✭✭✭
    Thanks for summing that up @Thogard

    Somewhat explains why some of my matches start like this against 2 premades

    YcvmQhb.jpg



    Edited by PhoenixGrey on May 31, 2018 3:21AM
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    ✭✭✭
    Thanks for summing that up @Thogard

    Somewhat explains why some of my matches start like this against 2 premades

    YcvmQhb.jpg



    yeah man it's frustrating.

    I've been in matches where my team has 3 and I know one of my buddies is solo queued. Then he'll get added into the match about 5 minutes in. Very frustrating, but it's clear that the match's acceptable MMR widens slowly.

    The speed with which people get into matches is, right now, the best way to figure out what your relative MMR is.

    Blobs had a nice video with some alternate theories on MMR calculation that could very well be true. The only thing for certain that we know about MMR is that we need more data points to figure out exactly how it works;

    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • wheem_ESO
    wheem_ESO
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    I'm not convinced that MMR is based on cumulative lifetime score that never resets. All 3 of the characters I've played in BGs seem to have essentially the exact same queues; pretty fast during prime time, and matched up against premade teams decently often.

    Magicka Nightblade:
    mF9zOdA.jpg

    Magicka Sorcerer:
    o5ey8JY.jpg

    Magicka Warden:
    AOwkhVc.jpg

    But here's the kicker - I did a lot of games on Magicka Warden before downloading the PvPMeter addon. I may not have the same number of games as Thogard, at least in part because I've been a bit more off-and-on playing over the last year or so, but my Warden actually has significantly more games than the other two characters.

    I'll end up vs the same premade team(s) multiple times, pretty much back to back, on any of my characters. Then, after a few of those super-duper-ultra-fun games, I'll be put against most/all random solo queued players, including those with names that I don't recognize. It seems very unlikely that there aren't enough of those lower MMR players to end up exclusively against each other, leaving the system to grab me after 1 minute or so in the queue.

    The only way I can see that the system could be basing MMR on cumulative lifetime scoreboard points (per character), is if the range for each bracket is really big. I don't remember when exactly I downloaded the PvPMeter addon, but I wouldn't be surprised if my Warden really has > 1,000 games, but with queue times and "types" that are indistinguishable from my Magblade.

    PS
    The overwhelming majority of my games on all 3 characters are solo queued, and I sometimes pay attention to objectives, and sometimes don't.
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    wheem_ESO wrote: »
    I'm not convinced that MMR is based on cumulative lifetime score that never resets. All 3 of the characters I've played in BGs seem to have essentially the exact same queues; pretty fast during prime time, and matched up against premade teams decently often.

    Magicka Nightblade:
    mF9zOdA.jpg

    Magicka Sorcerer:
    o5ey8JY.jpg

    Magicka Warden:
    AOwkhVc.jpg

    But here's the kicker - I did a lot of games on Magicka Warden before downloading the PvPMeter addon. I may not have the same number of games as Thogard, at least in part because I've been a bit more off-and-on playing over the last year or so, but my Warden actually has significantly more games than the other two characters.

    I'll end up vs the same premade team(s) multiple times, pretty much back to back, on any of my characters. Then, after a few of those super-duper-ultra-fun games, I'll be put against most/all random solo queued players, including those with names that I don't recognize. It seems very unlikely that there aren't enough of those lower MMR players to end up exclusively against each other, leaving the system to grab me after 1 minute or so in the queue.

    The only way I can see that the system could be basing MMR on cumulative lifetime scoreboard points (per character), is if the range for each bracket is really big. I don't remember when exactly I downloaded the PvPMeter addon, but I wouldn't be surprised if my Warden really has > 1,000 games, but with queue times and "types" that are indistinguishable from my Magblade.

    PS
    The overwhelming majority of my games on all 3 characters are solo queued, and I sometimes pay attention to objectives, and sometimes don't.

    Yeah you are almost always one of the solo queuers who gets thrown against the premades.

    Every once in a while the game lets me loose against a bunch of newbie-ish pugs too. But it’s hard for me to say that my MMR is actually going down because whenever I’m allowed to unload against pugs I usually have to wait a long time for a queue (meaning more MMR variance / unfair mismatch is allowed) and i look at my friends list and don’t see other matches starting.

    But it’s interesing. I had assumed that those matches were caused by my long wait time, but you seem to be implying that they’re being caused by losing / getting pug stomped in the High MMR matches. But those games happen abojt once a day to me, and it seems like a contradiction to think that your MMR could change that fast.

    What I think is more likely is that your toons are in about the same place abs my magplar - able to play up or down based on whether or not the premades who are queuing have been waiting really long.

    Here’s why I think that: when there are two full, hardcore premades going, you’re rarely the pug on the third team. (Corrext me if I’m wrong but I don’t recall seeing you in the sidelines in the 4v4 against the Damarky premade, the Galalin premade, the JarlBrody/jerpar/skoomah Group, or the Yellow Fever premade, which are probably the most regular 4 man groups besides what we run).

    But I do see you a lot in actual pug stomps where it’s my premade vs two full groups of pugs.

    If we assume that my group has the highest MMR when we all play our mains (which probably isn’t true bc of damarky’s group but just assume it is) then the group finder is going to try to match us with the 8 highest MMR players there are. So the group finder doesn’t “draft” you to fight us in its closest four picks most of the time, because if it did then you would be watching a lot of the 4v4 stalemates we get against other 4 man groups that are tankier but do less dmg...

    So it seems like you’re not in the 1-4 spots but you are in the 4-8 spot of groups closest to our full premade. Which means that while you’re high MMR, you’re not ultra high and therefore if we’re taking a short break or if we drop out of queues and have to reset our timer (because remember we have to wait a while if we’re on mains before the match maker allows us to fight moderate MMR pugs) then you could just as easily get drafted by the lower MMR fights.

    Next time you get into one of those matches can you do me a huge favor and say something in guild chat? I’d want to know how long you’ve been queued for and I can look up how long I’ve been queued for... and I can hit up the other BG regulars to see if other people are waiting.

    If I’ve been placed in a game with people with lower MMR than what I suspect you have, but I get placed before you despite you waiting just as long as me, then we can reasonably assume that your MMR is lower than all 8 of the pugs in my own match (assuming they respond to my questions asking them how long they’ve been queued). So I know it’s a lot of “ifs” but it would disprove my theory of MMR never getting lowered.

    But I have a hunch that you’re getting those matches whenever I get one of the sweet 4v4v4 all good premades that I live for.

    Just let me know in g.
    Edited by Thogard on May 31, 2018 8:02AM
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    Does anyone on PC NA know Jon Stryfe? I really think he’s the key to this. We need to see what kind of matches he’s getting. He’s played a ton of matches but he seems to always queue solo. @Aliyavana you’re another really frequent solo queuer who isn’t running away from fights just to cap flags, so you’ve probably got a relatively low win rate but tons of matches played.. could you post a PvPMeter report if you have it? I remember you used to get a lot of matches against me / my group at summerset launch but i haven’t seen you in a while and I’m not sure if that’s because the system actually lowered your MMR or if you stopped queueing on your main.

    I really want to take Jonstryfe or zebendel and have them do a sync solo queue up at the exact same time as someone with around 20 games played but a really really high win rate due to aggressive focus on objectives ... and I watch and see what happens. @damarky do you have any toons like that? If they both get the same queue pop we’ll have them decline, and we’ll keep going until only one of them gets a pop, and we’ll see which one gets thrown against my premade. It’ll be a good test and should let us know if playtime or winrate is more important... and if they keep getting in the same match we might have to start exploring Other vsriables like average KDR or alliance rank..
    Edited by Thogard on May 31, 2018 8:35AM
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
  • Aliyavana
    Aliyavana
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    Thogard wrote: »
    Does anyone on PC NA know Jon Stryfe? I really think he’s the key to this. We need to see what kind of matches he’s getting. He’s played a ton of matches but he seems to always queue solo. @Aliyavana you’re another really frequent solo queuer who isn’t running away from fights just to cap flags, so you’ve probably got a relatively low win rate but tons of matches played.. could you post a PvPMeter report if you have it? I remember you used to get a lot of matches against me / my group at summerset launch but i haven’t seen you in a while and I’m not sure if that’s because the system actually lowered your MMR or if you stopped queueing on your main.

    I really want to take Jonstryfe or zebendel and have them do a sync solo queue up at the exact same time as someone with around 20 games played but a really really high win rate due to aggressive focus on objectives ... and I watch and see what happens. @damarky do you have any toons like that? If they both get the same queue pop we’ll have them decline, and we’ll keep going until only one of them gets a pop, and we’ll see which one gets thrown against my premade. It’ll be a good test and should let us know if playtime or winrate is more important... and if they keep getting in the same match we might have to start exploring Other vsriables like average KDR or alliance rank..

    you havnt seen me because ive been busy with pve stuff in summerset tho I still hop in for the daily rewards
    Zebendal- Stam Sorc, PC NA
  • Thogard
    Thogard
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    Aliyavana wrote: »
    Thogard wrote: »
    Does anyone on PC NA know Jon Stryfe? I really think he’s the key to this. We need to see what kind of matches he’s getting. He’s played a ton of matches but he seems to always queue solo. @Aliyavana you’re another really frequent solo queuer who isn’t running away from fights just to cap flags, so you’ve probably got a relatively low win rate but tons of matches played.. could you post a PvPMeter report if you have it? I remember you used to get a lot of matches against me / my group at summerset launch but i haven’t seen you in a while and I’m not sure if that’s because the system actually lowered your MMR or if you stopped queueing on your main.

    I really want to take Jonstryfe or zebendel and have them do a sync solo queue up at the exact same time as someone with around 20 games played but a really really high win rate due to aggressive focus on objectives ... and I watch and see what happens. @damarky do you have any toons like that? If they both get the same queue pop we’ll have them decline, and we’ll keep going until only one of them gets a pop, and we’ll see which one gets thrown against my premade. It’ll be a good test and should let us know if playtime or winrate is more important... and if they keep getting in the same match we might have to start exploring Other vsriables like average KDR or alliance rank..

    you havnt seen me because ive been busy with pve stuff in summerset tho I still hop in for the daily rewards

    I was afraid you’d say that :(

    Do you track your win rate? I always assume that because you don’t run away from fights that you’ve got a relatively low one like the rest of us that just like to PvP rather than PvF, but you seem to almost always be solo so your stats would be more pure than mine (easy to get a W even if not aggressively playing objective when you’re a premade fighting two pugs)
    PC NA - Thogard / Sir Thogalot / Thoggy Boi jr / Thogaine / Madam Clamslam

    twitch.tv/ThogardPvP
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