Crown Crate drop rate research - final results

Enodoc

Hey there! Here's a wall of text from the 52 crates I opened today.
I also included the colour of the card, as I think it's quite likely each card of the same colour has the same chance.

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5) x2
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Fibonaccus Spiral Hat

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Green-- Crown Repair Kit
Blue-- Feathered Bycoket Cap

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Evening Dress
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Gold-- Dwarf-Style Mage's Hat
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25) x2

Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet

Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit

Green-- Crown Repair Kit
Blue-- Feathered Bycoket Cap (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Storn Atronach Aura
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Jawbone Blades
Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Blue-- Evening Dress (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Blue-- "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Wrestler's Burr Cut

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Daedric Scamp
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

Green-- Crown Soul Gem
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Feathered Bycoket Cap (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Blue-- Battlemage Palatine Armor

White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Blue-- Wrestler's Burr Cut (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Roostertail Frills
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Green-- Crown Lession: Riding Stamina x2
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Blue-- Evening Dress (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Evening Dress (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Battlemage Palatine Armor (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Purple-- Upright Antler Skullcap
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison

Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Roostertail Frills (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Storm Atronach Aura (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Evening Dress (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll

White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Green-- Crown Repair Kit
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Blue-- Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit

Green-- Crown Soul Gem
White-- Crown Mimic Stone x2
Blue-- Daedric Scamp (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Blue-- Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Green-- Crown Soul Gem
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5) x2
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Roostertail Frills (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Feathered Bycoket (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- "Clever Man" Wizard Hat (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5) x2
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Jawbone Blades (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Gold-- Red Pit Wolf Mount
Green-- Crown Soul Gem
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5) x2

White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Purple-- The Aurbic Eye [bonus card]
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25) x2
Green-- Crown Soul Gem
Blue-- Wrestler's Burr Cut (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Roostertail Frills (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Purple-- "Brilliance" Brocade Robes

Blue-- Wrestler's Burr Cut (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Purple-- Belly Dancer Veil
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Blue-- Battlemage Palatine Armor (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Wrestler's Burr Cut (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Invisiblity Potion (5)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Repair Kit
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Blue-- Roostertail Frills (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Storm Atronach Aura (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

Green-- Crown Soul Gem
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Repair Kit
Blue-- Roostertail Frills (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Total Crates: 52
Crown Gems: 170

Total Cards: 209
Bonus Cards: 1 (Purple)
Duplicate Cards: 34 (all Blue)
White Cards: 121
Green Cards: 31
Blue Cards: 51
Purple Cards: 4
Gold Cards: 2
Apex Cards: 0

Truthsnark

Another 13 Crates; very lackluster this time...all cosmetics were duplicates:

1 Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
2 Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
2 Crown Crate Experience Scroll
3 Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
5 Crown Lethal Poison (25)
4 Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
5 Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
3 Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
4 Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
6 Crown Mimic Stone
1 Crown Repair Kit
2 Crown Soul Gem
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
1 Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
2 Battlemage Tribune Armor
1 Shadow Striping
1 Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
1 Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
1 Roostertail Frills
3 Feathered Bycoket Cap
1 Jawbone Blades
2 Wrestler's Burr Cut

In all my Crown Crate opens (five sets of 13 crates each) I'm only getting one cosmetic item per four cards; shouldn't I be seeing deals where I get more than one cosmetic item? Am I just having bad luck? The only times I have seen more than one cosmetic item are when Pacrooti deals the fifth card, which is always a cosmetic item.

Enodoc

Truthsnark wrote: »

In all my Crown Crate opens (five sets of 13 crates each) I'm only getting one cosmetic item per four cards; shouldn't I be seeing deals where I get more than one cosmetic item? Am I just having bad luck? The only times I have seen more than one cosmetic item are when Pacrooti deals the fifth card, which is always a cosmetic item.

Well it is possible; I had two crates with two blue cards, and two with one blue and one purple (not counting the one bonus card I got, which was also purple, with one blue already in there).

Dubhliam

I don't know if they changed this in the recent patch, but I noticed I always get a blue item in every crate (usually combined with 3 whites).

Let's assume every crate grants you a blue item.

Let's for a second say that 400 Crowns is not much for a random vanity item (debatable, I know, just hear me out).
Let's assume getting a new vanity item for 400 Crowns is not wasted.

Duplicates grant 5 gems.
This means you would have to open 80 Crates just to get an Apex reward of your choice.
At a price of 400, 80 of them cost 32000 Crowns.
But it actually costs much more since you were forced to buy every other vanity item in the loot table before you start gettin duplicates.

Since when is 32000 Crowns for a single mount not a ripoff?

Danikat

Sorry I've been quiet for a few days, I got dragged back into real life and couldn't get online much. Thanks to @feyii , @silvereyes , @Dojohoda , @Truthsnark and @Enodoc for adding loads more data in the mean time. It means we've now got almost 600 crates recorded, which I think is enough to get at least a general idea of the pattern.

Enodoc wrote: »

Hey there! Here's a wall of text from the 52 crates I opened today.
I also included the colour of the card, as I think it's quite likely each card of the same colour has the same chance.

I think you might be right. As it happens yesterday I decided it'd be easier to group items by tier instead of in alphabetical order (which was originally easier when I was still building up the list) and it definitely looks like the drop rates are very close for items in the same tier. It may well be that if we had enough data to iron out some of the anomalies they would be exactly the same.

Truthsnark wrote: »

In all my Crown Crate opens (five sets of 13 crates each) I'm only getting one cosmetic item per four cards; shouldn't I be seeing deals where I get more than one cosmetic item? Am I just having bad luck? The only times I have seen more than one cosmetic item are when Pacrooti deals the fifth card, which is always a cosmetic item.

Most crates have 3 consumables and 1 cosmetic item. I have occasionally had 2 cosmetics (either blue or purple) in one 4-card crate. But it's very rare. I've also had equally rare crates where I get 4 consumables (including a "special" one like a better XP scroll or a soul gem) and no cosmetics.

If it was completely random - if each card was 'choosing' independently from the full drop table then 2 cosmetics would not be unusual and sooner or later we'd see a crate with something like 4 Warrior's Elixir's, or 4-5 cosmetics.

My guess is there's actually 3 different drop tables being used:
1) Two cards share a drop table that only includes the consumables.
2) One card has a drop table that only includes the cosmetics and rare consumables.
3) The 4th card is the 'wild card' which includes the full list of items, so it could be anything.
(If a 5th card shows up it uses option 2.)

This ensures everyone gets one 'good' drop per crate (something other than the basic consumables) and also ensures no one can ever get something like 4 Storm Atronach mounts in one go. But as the cards can come up in any order I can't think of any way to prove that except for the absence of outliers.

Dubhliam wrote: »

I don't know if they changed this in the recent patch, but I noticed I always get a blue item in every crate (usually combined with 3 whites).

Let's assume every crate grants you a blue item.

Let's for a second say that 400 Crowns is not much for a random vanity item (debatable, I know, just hear me out).
Let's assume getting a new vanity item for 400 Crowns is not wasted.

Duplicates grant 5 gems.
This means you would have to open 80 Crates just to get an Apex reward of your choice.
At a price of 400, 80 of them cost 32000 Crowns.
But it actually costs much more since you were forced to buy every other vanity item in the loot table before you start gettin duplicates.

Since when is 32000 Crowns for a single mount not a ripoff?

I've been trying to work out how many crates you'd have to open to get everything on the list through a combination of drops and gems, and more practically how long it'd take to afford 1 legendary or apex reward. But that's a lot more complicated that tracking drop rates because there's a lot of factors to include.

I can tell you that it costs 4,747 gems to buy everything on the list, and if our 576 crates had all been opened on 1 account (with no cosmetics unlocked at the start) it would get you 4,482 gems. But of course you'd unlock a lot of the stuff just from opening the crates. (I can also tell you that on my account I started with a few things unlocked, I've opened 78 crates and I'm just short of having 400 gems.)

I think you're right that 80 is the minimum to get an apex reward, and I'd estimate about 300-400 to get everything. However you look at it it's very expensive.

JimT722

Dubhliam wrote: »

I don't know if they changed this in the recent patch, but I noticed I always get a blue item in every crate (usually combined with 3 whites).

Let's assume every crate grants you a blue item.

Let's for a second say that 400 Crowns is not much for a random vanity item (debatable, I know, just hear me out).
Let's assume getting a new vanity item for 400 Crowns is not wasted.

Duplicates grant 5 gems.
This means you would have to open 80 Crates just to get an Apex reward of your choice.
At a price of 400, 80 of them cost 32000 Crowns.
But it actually costs much more since you were forced to buy every other vanity item in the loot table before you start gettin duplicates.

Since when is 32000 Crowns for a single mount not a ripoff?

It's working as intended.

I can't wait to see what they do with housing.

Rosveen

day 5-7

crate 1
Shornhelm Shepard
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity

crate 2
Wrestler's Burr Cut
Crown Lesson: Ridign Speed
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 3
Helstrom Ancestro Lizard
Crown Lethal Poison
2x Crown Mimic Stone

crate 4
Storm Atronach Aura
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion

crate 5
Dwarf Style Mage's Hat
2x Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 6
Storm Atronach Aura
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Survivor's Elixit
Crown Mimic Stone

crate 7
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 8
Werstler's Burr Cut
Crown Warrior's Elixir
2x Crown Lethal Poison

crate 9
Daedric Scamp
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 10
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

crate 11
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir

crate 12
Daedric Scamp
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Warrior's Elixir

crate 13
Shornhelm Shepard
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir

crate 14
Shadow Striping
Crown Warrior's Elixir
2x Crown Mimic Stone

crate 15
Mind-Shriven skin
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 16
Jawbone Blades
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

crate 17
Daedric Scamp
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Soul Gem

crate 18
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Repair Kit

crate 19
Roostertail Frills
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisiblity Potion

crate 20
Evening Dress
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Soul Gem

crate 21
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Repair Kit

crate 22
Evening Dress
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Tri-Restroration Potion
Crown Invisibility Potion

crate 23
Daedric Scamp
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
Crown Lethal Poison

crate 24
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
2x Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 25
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Warrior's Elixir

crate 26
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Warior's Elixir
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

crate 27
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Repair Kit

crate 28
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion

crate 29
Roostertail Frills
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
2x Crown Mimic Stone

crate 30
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir

crate 31
Evening Dress
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Lethal Poison

crate 32
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Mimic Stone

crate 33
Shornhelm Shepard
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

crate 34
Shornhelm Shepard
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Repair Kit

crate 35
Shadow Striping
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Lethal Poison

crate 36
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 37
Frost Mare
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Crate Experience Scroll

crate 38
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lethal Poison

crate 39
Shornhelm Shepard
Crown Warrior's Elixir
2x Crown Mimic Stone

Truthsnark

Danikat wrote: »

My guess is there's actually 3 different drop tables being used:
1) Two cards share a drop table that only includes the consumables.
2) One card has a drop table that only includes the cosmetics and rare consumables.
3) The 4th card is the 'wild card' which includes the full list of items, so it could be anything.
(If a 5th card shows up it uses option 2.)

This ensures everyone gets one 'good' drop per crate (something other than the basic consumables) and also ensures no one can ever get something like 4 Storm Atronach mounts in one go. But as the cards can come up in any order I can't think of any way to prove that except for the absence of outliers.

This makes sense to me. I had suspected something like this must be in place because it was not operating as a true random chance, and there was too much pattern to it for there not to be separate loot tables per card.

It could be a running probability calculation on the cards. All cards have the same chance of being a cosmetic card until a cosmetic card is flipped. At that point, the remaining cards have a probability chance of drawing from the available card loot tables (the consumable loot table would be the most common by far - say a 90-95% draw - this is why we are usually only seeing one cosmetic item per Crate). Conversely, if you flip three cards and no cosmetic item has been flipped, then the last card flipped will automatically draw from the cosmetic loot table. The bonus fifth card always draws from the cosmetic loot table, or else has a reduced cosmetic loot table that only draws from Apex, Legendary, or Epic items. Your solution is probably the more elegant one, though and easier to code.

To bear the hypotheticals out we would have to add loot tier per card and card order revealed to the dataset though, and I'm just not so certain how into the weeds we want to get here. We could make the assumption that people who are listing "per Crate" are listing the cards in the order revealed - as most players will hit "Reveal All" which will automatically reveal left to right, or else they will open the cards left to right manually.

Truthsnark

Another 13 Crates - had a startlingly good run this time - including the elusive orchid nixad on my last Crate!

1 Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
2 Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
3 Crown Crate Experience Scroll
7 Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
2 Crown Lethal Poison (25)
2 Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
3 Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
6 Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
4 Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
2 Crown Mimic Stone
2 Crown Repair Kit
1 Crown Soul Gem
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
3 Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
1 Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
1 Red Pit Wolf Pup (fifth card)
1 Battlemage Palatine Armor
1 "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
3 Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
2 Roostertail Frills
1 Feathered Bycoket Cap
1 Jawbone Blades
1 Storm Atronach Bear Mount (fifth card)
1 "Brilliance" Brocade Robes (fifth card)
1 Imperial Mananaut Cap and Goggles
1 Shornhelm Shepherd
1 Orchid Nixad

Still getting one cosmetic per Crate, and a second when a fifth card is drawn. After six rounds of crates (13 crates a day) I have 285 Crown Gems. I would have purchased 33,000 crowns in total (six packs of the 5,500 crowns), and spent $250ish to do so, provided I did not wait for a crown sale (do crowns have sales tax?). For my $250, I received the following items that I actually think are kind of neat/would use, and aren't duplicates of items I already own on Live, with estimated direct purchase pricing based on existing items:

Storm Atronach Guar (est 2,500 to 4,000 crowns)
Storm Atronach Bear (est 2,500 to 4,000 crowns)
Imperial Mananaut Cap and Goggles (est 400 crowns)
Red Pit Wolf Pup (est 700 crowns)
Orchid Nixad (est 700 crowns)
16 Crown Mimic Stones (600 for the 12 pack or 1,200 for the 26 pack)
24 Crown Repair Kits (800 for two 10 packs)

Additionally, I have 285 Crown Gems - and I can purchase the following items that I wanted but did not receive in the crates:

Chub Loon (est 700 crowns)
Red Pit Wolf Mount (est 1,800 crowns)
Clouded Leopard Mount (est 1,800 to 2,500 crowns)

So if I'd been able to purchase the items I wanted directly, I would have spent at the low estimate 12,500 crowns and at the high estimate 16,800 crowns. That's basically three 5,500 crown packs, or HALF what I spent using the Crates - about $130ish (again, sales tax?). And that assumes that I would have purchased two atronach mounts, which I probably wouldn't have (Guar is the obvious choice, obviously).

Danikat

Thanks to @Rosveen and @Truthsnark! I've updated the first post with new data, and added a tl;dr section with the average (mean) chance for each tier as a quick reference. I'm still not sure all items in a tier have the same chance but it's pretty close (within 2%) and I thought it might be useful.

I've basically given up trying to calculate how long it'd take to get 400 crown gems. It probably can be done but every time I try it gives me weird numbers that can't possibly be right. I suspect there would be too much variation for it to be useful anyway, as it depends on what you've got unlocked already and there's a lot of variation in how quickly you get repeats and what they are.

@Truthsnark I actually had a surprisingly good day today as well. I got 2 clouded senche-leopards! Although in practice that means 66 crowns because I already have the mount on Live. (It was my one "must have" crown store item, I actually set myself a reminder for the day it came out to make sure I got it.)

So far I've used 104 crates, which would cost me £181.53 and these are the items I've got which I might actually buy:
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat (maybe, might fit a sorcerer I'm planning)
Evening Dress (already own it)
Palomino Horse (already own it)
Purple Daggerback
Chub Loon
Golden Eye Guar (I didn't buy it when it was available, but keep thinking about getting a guar)
Clouded Senche-Leopard (already own it)

I have gotten other cosmetics obviously, including the storm atronach bear and the mind-shriven horse, but as I haven't bought any bears (I don't like the running animation) and didn't get the mind-shriven horse when it was sold directly I think it's unlikely I'd have bought them.

Others I might buy:
Storm Atronach wolf or senche (maybe? I don't tend to buy overly flashy mounts but these aren't too bad)
Red Pit Wolf Pup
Red Pit Wolf Mount (maybe, it'd be between this and the grey one)
Clouded Senche-Leopard Cub

Excluding the ones I already own and using upper estimates for what I'd pay I estimate that lot would cost me 8,800 crowns, or £38.40.

Truthsnark

I don't like how it appears the drop chance for the legendary is essentially the same as the Apex. They should have more separation in the Epic - Legendary drop chances from the Apex drop chance. It's silly that you have roughly the same chance to get a Chub Loon as you do a Storm Atronach mount.

hrothbern

Truthsnark wrote: »

I don't like how it appears the drop chance for the legendary is essentially the same as the Apex. They should have more separation in the Epic - Legendary drop chances from the Apex drop chance. It's silly that you have roughly the same chance to get a Chub Loon as you do a Storm Atronach mount.

looks indeed silly on first glance !

The difference of Storm Atronach vs Chub Loon is not so much that 0.27% vs 0.38%,
but paying 400 Crown Gems vs paying 100 Crown Gems.

Your chance to get precisely that Storm Atronach without using Crown Gem refunds is close to zero (0.27% per crate).
So you need on average 1/0.27% = 364 crates, which will cost you 400*364 = a whopping 145,500 Crowns !!!

Those costs are obviously too high to use as method to get precisely that Storm Atronach.
And you will need much less than 364 Crates to get your needed 400 Crown Gem refund.
So using Crown Gem refunds are the only cost effective AND reliable way to get that 1 Apex item you really want.

Danikat

Well that might not be completely accurate. The drop rates for the rarer items are so low we don't have much data. But it wouldn't surprise me if the drop rate for the Epic tier is 1% at most and the Legendary and Apex tiers are lower, so there isn't much 'room' for variation.

Unless they wanted to get into absurdly low drop rates, like 0.001% which is not unheard of for games but I think it'd be counter-productive here. Both because players would be more likely to give up and stop buying crates if they never get a good drop and because they'd probably get enough gems to buy them directly long before they got one as a drop so there's no benefit to ZOS in dragging it out.

silvereyes

Video: Days 6-8

https://youtu.be/nsvKIGvRZOw

Got a red wolf pup, frost mare and some duplicate legendary rewards, which each returned 33 gems (1/3 of purchase value).

Before day 7, I filled all my character slots with new toons that have maxed out mounts. I haven't received a riding lesson in the 26 crates since, which is interesting. Could just be RNG. I'll definitely report if I get any riding lessons from now on.

Truthsnark

hrothbern wrote: »

Truthsnark wrote: »

I don't like how it appears the drop chance for the legendary is essentially the same as the Apex. They should have more separation in the Epic - Legendary drop chances from the Apex drop chance. It's silly that you have roughly the same chance to get a Chub Loon as you do a Storm Atronach mount.

looks indeed silly on first glance !

The difference of Storm Atronach vs Chub Loon is not so much that 0.27% vs 0.38%,
but paying 400 Crown Gems vs paying 100 Crown Gems.

Your chance to get precisely that Storm Atronach without using Crown Gem refunds is close to zero (0.27% per crate).
So you need on average 1/0.27% = 364 crates, which will cost you 400*364 = a whopping 145,500 Crowns !!!

Those costs are obviously too high to use as method to get precisely that Storm Atronach.
And you will need much less than 364 Crates to get your needed 400 Crown Gem refund.
So using Crown Gem refunds are the only cost effective AND reliable way to get that 1 Apex item you really want.

It's still not worth it to me to try and get it via Gems knowing that even for a 40 Gem purchase (pet) I would have to get through 20-30 Crates before I had enough duplicate items to accumulate the Gems. I would absolutely pay 700 crowns for a direct purchase pet, but not 8000 crowns. This is fun while I'm using freebie crowns on the PTS, but based on what we see in this thread, for me Crates are a hard pass when using actual money. Once we see rate of return when they make it so we can refund consumables, maybe?

Danikat

Since crown crates have been removed from the PTS it looks like this thread is done.

Huge thanks to everyone who participated! I don't know about anyone else but I found it really useful.

hrothbern

Danikat wrote: »

Since crown crates have been removed from the PTS it looks like this thread is done.

Huge thanks to everyone who participated! I don't know about anyone else but I found it really useful.

Many thanks to you @Danikat !

Agregating all that feedback was very helpful.

silvereyes

Summing up all the percents by tier:

• Superior: 95%
• Epic: 10.5%
• Legendary: 6%
• Apex: 1.8%

Total: 113.3%

This tracks with the theory that 1 card is designated as a guaranteed collectible slot.
The drop rate of collectibles in the 2nd slot is a little harder to gauge due to the random 5th card drops, but we can probably safely say it's no more than about 13% of the time.

Enodoc

I was hoping to open 39 crates today, but I didn't manage to buy any more before the servers went down for maintenance. So here's my last 26:

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Purple-- Chub Loon
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (4)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

Blue-- Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Speed

Green-- Crown Soul Gem
Gold-- Storm Atronach Transform
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Storm Atronach Aura (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Blue-- "Clever Man" Wizard Hat (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Blue-- Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Blue-- "Clever Man" Wizard Hat (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5) x2
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Blue-- Battlemage Tribune Armor
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Blue-- Fibonaccus Spiral Hat (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Green-- Crown Repair Kit
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

White-- Crown Mimic Stone x3
Blue-- "Clever Man" Wizard Hat (Dupe: 5 Gems)

Purple-- Hedge Wizard's Claw Cap
White-- Crown Spellcater's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Green-- Crown Soul Gem

Blue-- Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink x2
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone x3
Blue-- Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Soul Gem
Blue-- Battlemage Tribune Armor (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5) x2
Purple-- Chub Loon (Dupe: 13 Gems)
White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Blue-- Shornhelm Shepherd (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

White-- Crown Mimic Stone x2
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Blue-- Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Shadow Striping
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
White-- Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Blue-- Storm Atronach Aura (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5) x2
White-- Crown Mimic Stone

White-- Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Blue-- Jawbone Blades (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Green-- Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity

White-- Crown Mimic Stone
Green-- Crown Repair Kit
Blue-- Jawbone Blades (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Experience Scroll

White-- Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5) x2
Blue-- Helstrom Ancestor Lizard (Dupe: 5 Gems)
White-- Crown Miimc Stone

White-- Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
White-- Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Blue-- Daedric Scamp (Dupe: 5 Gems)
Green-- Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

Total Crates: 26
Crown Gems: 123

Total Cards: 104
Bonus Cards: 0
Duplicate Cards: 23 (22 Blue, 1 Purple)
White Cards: 59
Green Cards: 17
Blue Cards: 24
Purple Cards: 3
Gold Cards: 1
Apex Cards: 0

silky_soft

So basically these are online pokies? Making them some what illegal? Probably would be in Australia with our Nanny our state is. You would be better off playing a 1c machine tbh or just getting drunk and throwing it all on first 1/3.

Danikat

I'm not any kind of legal expert and obviously it varies from place to place, but when I looked up the legality of RNG boxes (different game but same system) some time ago it turned out that in the vast majority of places (including Australia, all US states and the UK) they were legal.

The main reasons were:
1) You are guaranteed to get a prize. It may not be the thing you want or even worth the cost of the box, but you'll never spend money and be left with nothing.
2) All the possible prizes are 'displayed' (listed in the crown store) so you know what you could get.
3) In a round-about way you're not spending money for these. Legally crowns are not a currency and have no value. When you buy crowns you are buying access to an additional part of the service (which is how the whole game is classified). This ties into point 1 - you buy permission to access the items from the crown store, choose the RNG box and get some items, the service is working exactly as described. Because the crowns and all of the items in the game have no value it doesn't count as losing money, so it's legal.

Basically they fall into the same system as fairground games where you pick an X on a "desert island" or fish a rubber duck out of a pond (do they have those outside the UK?), or those machines which give you a tiny toy in a capsule. 99% of the time it's a waste of money but it's not illegal to enable people to waste money.

danno8

Danikat wrote: »

I'm not any kind of legal expert and obviously it varies from place to place, but when I looked up the legality of RNG boxes (different game but same system) some time ago it turned out that in the vast majority of places (including Australia, all US states and the UK) they were legal.

The main reasons were:
1) You are guaranteed to get a prize. It may not be the thing you want or even worth the cost of the box, but you'll never spend money and be left with nothing.
2) All the possible prizes are 'displayed' (listed in the crown store) so you know what you could get.
3) In a round-about way you're not spending money for these. Legally crowns are not a currency and have no value. When you buy crowns you are buying access to an additional part of the service (which is how the whole game is classified). This ties into point 1 - you buy permission to access the items from the crown store, choose the RNG box and get some items, the service is working exactly as described. Because the crowns and all of the items in the game have no value it doesn't count as losing money, so it's legal.

Basically they fall into the same system as fairground games where you pick an X on a "desert island" or fish a rubber duck out of a pond (do they have those outside the UK?), or those machines which give you a tiny toy in a capsule. 99% of the time it's a waste of money but it's not illegal to enable people to waste money.

Yup.

And yet the question is, why would any company sell gamble boxes instead of just directly selling the product? The answer of course is that they will enable the foolish to spend much more money than they would otherwise spend.

#2 can't be correct as slot machines often list the odds and the amounts you can win. I doubt the gamble boxes will display that information at all except for things like "small chance" and "rare prizes". In this case, slot machines actually are more informative.

#3 can't be correct either as casinos often make you buy "chips" in order to play the tables, similar to crowns.

Only #1 really makes any kind of sense as to how this is allowable. But I am sure if you were to ask any compulsive gambler if the crates are like gambling to them they would say "yes".

driosketch

danno8 wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

I'm not any kind of legal expert and obviously it varies from place to place, but when I looked up the legality of RNG boxes (different game but same system) some time ago it turned out that in the vast majority of places (including Australia, all US states and the UK) they were legal.

The main reasons were:
1) You are guaranteed to get a prize. It may not be the thing you want or even worth the cost of the box, but you'll never spend money and be left with nothing.
2) All the possible prizes are 'displayed' (listed in the crown store) so you know what you could get.
3) In a round-about way you're not spending money for these. Legally crowns are not a currency and have no value. When you buy crowns you are buying access to an additional part of the service (which is how the whole game is classified). This ties into point 1 - you buy permission to access the items from the crown store, choose the RNG box and get some items, the service is working exactly as described. Because the crowns and all of the items in the game have no value it doesn't count as losing money, so it's legal.

Basically they fall into the same system as fairground games where you pick an X on a "desert island" or fish a rubber duck out of a pond (do they have those outside the UK?), or those machines which give you a tiny toy in a capsule. 99% of the time it's a waste of money but it's not illegal to enable people to waste money.

#3 can't be correct either as casinos often make you buy "chips" in order to play the tables, similar to crowns.

Well you don't buy chips so much as exchange them. They are still technically currency, and you can exchange them for cash at any time.

Sallington

JimT722 wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

I don't know if they changed this in the recent patch, but I noticed I always get a blue item in every crate (usually combined with 3 whites).

Let's assume every crate grants you a blue item.

Let's for a second say that 400 Crowns is not much for a random vanity item (debatable, I know, just hear me out).
Let's assume getting a new vanity item for 400 Crowns is not wasted.

Duplicates grant 5 gems.
This means you would have to open 80 Crates just to get an Apex reward of your choice.
At a price of 400, 80 of them cost 32000 Crowns.
But it actually costs much more since you were forced to buy every other vanity item in the loot table before you start gettin duplicates.

Since when is 32000 Crowns for a single mount not a ripoff?

It's working as intended.

I can't wait to see what they do with housing.

I'm terrified that housing will turn into a cash grab and have no depth or substance.

Danikat

I've updated the first post with the remaining info. Thanks @Enodoc.

danno8 wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

I'm not any kind of legal expert and obviously it varies from place to place, but when I looked up the legality of RNG boxes (different game but same system) some time ago it turned out that in the vast majority of places (including Australia, all US states and the UK) they were legal.

The main reasons were:
1) You are guaranteed to get a prize. It may not be the thing you want or even worth the cost of the box, but you'll never spend money and be left with nothing.
2) All the possible prizes are 'displayed' (listed in the crown store) so you know what you could get.
3) In a round-about way you're not spending money for these. Legally crowns are not a currency and have no value. When you buy crowns you are buying access to an additional part of the service (which is how the whole game is classified). This ties into point 1 - you buy permission to access the items from the crown store, choose the RNG box and get some items, the service is working exactly as described. Because the crowns and all of the items in the game have no value it doesn't count as losing money, so it's legal.

Basically they fall into the same system as fairground games where you pick an X on a "desert island" or fish a rubber duck out of a pond (do they have those outside the UK?), or those machines which give you a tiny toy in a capsule. 99% of the time it's a waste of money but it's not illegal to enable people to waste money.

Yup.

And yet the question is, why would any company sell gamble boxes instead of just directly selling the product? The answer of course is that they will enable the foolish to spend much more money than they would otherwise spend.

#2 can't be correct as slot machines often list the odds and the amounts you can win. I doubt the gamble boxes will display that information at all except for things like "small chance" and "rare prizes". In this case, slot machines actually are more informative.

#3 can't be correct either as casinos often make you buy "chips" in order to play the tables, similar to crowns.

Only #1 really makes any kind of sense as to how this is allowable. But I am sure if you were to ask any compulsive gambler if the crates are like gambling to them they would say "yes".

It's not the odds that need to be listed, it's the possible prizes. It ties into the first point - if you're guaranteed to get something and everything you can get is listed then it's not considered as much of an issue as if you can end up with nothing.

Number 3 is an odd one, because it involves two concept that IMO are not obvious. Firstly the Terms of Service are pretty clear on the point that crowns and all items in the game have no monetary value and do not belong to us (incidentally you don't own your characters, account or username either). We buy access to a service, nothing more. Importantly this means you are not entitled to a refund for crowns you purchase and are not allowed to sell crowns for real world money.

Secondly a lot of laws, especially ones concerned with gambling, are solely focused on money. As far as they're concerned if you can't win money or anything worth money then you can't win anything at all. So it falls under the same category as charging a subscription fee for a game, or part of a game. You may not know exactly what experience you're going to get and (unless they've not thought it through) the company will have a disclaimer somewhere that they are not responsible if you end up feeling like you've wasted your money but it's not regulated in the same way as gambling.

Jayne_Doe

Right, I think the point is, the Crown Crates are legal and do not fall under the laws that regulate gambling, but for all intents and purposes, people are gambling if they purchase these.

I, for one, will not purchase a single one of these and consider their introduction to the Crown Store quite distasteful. They aren't designed to reward players (at least not very often) and are solely to generate lots of money. Otherwise, they would just put these items in the Crown Store for sale and not for gamble.

Thanks to everyone who participated in this to help provide a sense of just how bad these things are. The ability to convert unwanted consumables is a welcome concession, but I still don't think they're going to make amassing gems easier. They'll probably reduce the amount of gems for duplicate collectibles and keep the conversion of consumables quite low.

All in all, it seems like the best and only reliable way to get the particular apex mount you want is to spend lots of money on crates to amass gems to then outright purchase it. Sounds like that's around 80 crates, which is way too much money for my wallet.

Dubhliam

Was anyone lucky enough to get a duplicate Apex mount?

Blue cards give 5 gems,
Purple give 13 gems,
Gold give 33 gems.
I have no idea how much Gems a duplicate Apex card returns.

silvereyes

Dubhliam wrote: »

I have no idea how much Gems a duplicate Apex card returns.

I never got a single apex mount, but since the others are all 1/3 of the price, rounded down, it's reasonable to assume that apex duplicates would give 133 gems.