Crown Crate drop rate research - final results

driosketch

Day 2

Crate 1:
Soul Gem
Repair Kit
Lethal Poison
Jawbone blades (Dup for 5 Gems)

Crate 2:
Lethal Poison x2
Warrior Elixir
Soul Shriven Leather

Crate 3:
Tri Pots x2
Invisibility pot
Battlemage Scout Armor (5 Gem dup on live for me)

Crate 4:
Tri pots x2
Warrior Elixirs
Jawbone blades (Dup for 5 Gems)

Crate 5:
Survivor Elixir x2
Mimic Stone
Roostertail Frills

Crate 6:
Spell Elixir
Tri Pots
Mimic Stone
Shadow Striping

Crate 7
Spell Elixir
Lethal Poison
Jawbone Blade (Dup for 5 Gems)
Clever Man Wizard Hat (Dup for 5 Gems)

Crate 8:
Invisibility pot
Soul Gem
Survivor Elixir
Battlemage Palatine Armor (5 Gem dup on live for me)

Crate 9:
Survivor Elixir
Mimic Stone
Battlemage Tribune Armor (Dup for 5 Gems)
Storm Atronach Horse****

Crate 10:
Spell Elixir
Tri Pots
Soul Shriven Leather (Dup for 5 Gems)
Storm Atronach Wolf****

Crate 11:
Warrior Elixir
Fortifying Meal
Repair Kit
Battlemage Tribune Armor (Dup for 5 Gems)

Crate 12:
Invisibility pot x2
Warrior Elixir
Shornhelm Shepherd Pet

Crate 13
Ride lesson Capacity
Invisibility pot
Tri pots
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat

2 Apex mounts?! The fudge-n-crackers is going on ZOS!? I am not swayed. Not swayed I tell you.

Dubhliam

@Danikat
Here you can find a detailed Excel sheet that anyone with the link can edit.
Saves you the trouble of collecting and editing the data.

Add this to your OP if you wish.

feyii

Danikat wrote: »

Thanks to @rhapsodious , @Rosveen and @feyii!

If anyone's interested here's the list of items which haven't appeared yet. (According to the in-game preview these all drop from the crates.)

• Storm Atronach Camel
• Storm Atronach Horse
• Black Mane Lion Mount
• Clouded Senche-Leopard
• Frost Mare
• Mind-Shriven (skin)
• Orchid Nixad
• Red Pit Wolf Pup
• Rosy Netch Calf
• “Brilliance” Brocade Robes
• Feathered Headdress

Oh, the Red Pit Wolf Pup I got from at least one Box on the first day. But on it's own, this doesn't help for the statistics, sadly.
But I can at least confirm that the puppy drops.

Cously

feyii wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

Thanks to @rhapsodious , @Rosveen and @feyii!

If anyone's interested here's the list of items which haven't appeared yet. (According to the in-game preview these all drop from the crates.)

• Storm Atronach Camel
• Storm Atronach Horse
• Black Mane Lion Mount
• Clouded Senche-Leopard
• Frost Mare
• Mind-Shriven (skin)
• Orchid Nixad
• Red Pit Wolf Pup
• Rosy Netch Calf
• “Brilliance” Brocade Robes
• Feathered Headdress

Oh, the Red Pit Wolf Pup I got from at least one Box on the first day. But on it's own, this doesn't help for the statistics, sadly.
But I can at least confirm that the puppy drops.

Wolf pups are locked behind crates? *ragequit*

Arkhaniir

Of 13 Crates I opened today, 1 had 5 Cards, which I'm writing at the top. Here is the List:

Crate 13
Crown Invisibility Potion
Daedric Scamp
Golden Eye Guar
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Crate 12
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Warrior's Elixir

Crate 11
Crown Lethal Poison
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Mimic Stone

Crate 10
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Mimic Stone
Wrestler's Burr Cut

Crate 9
Evening Dress
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Mimic Stone

Crate 8
Crown Lethal Poison
Wrestler's Burr Cut
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Mimic Stone

Crate 7
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Shadow Stripe Headwrap
Crown Lethal Poison

Crate 6
Evening Dress
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Soul Gem

Crate 5
Crown Mimic Stone
Battlemage Palatine Armor
Wrestler's Burr Cut
Crown Soul Gem

Crate 4
Crown Invisibilty Potion
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Evening Dress
"Brilliance" Brocade Robes

Crate 3
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Crate 2
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Evening Dress
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity

Crate 1
Crown Tri-Restoration potion
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
Belly Dancer Veil
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

I'll continue to post the list as I open more crates. I strongly encourage anyone to stay away from these crates when they hit live servers.

Danikat

Thanks to @Dojohoda , @MissBizz , @driosketch and @Arkhaniir for todays data! (And BTW MissBizz, you don't need to post it by crate. It can be interesting but it's not necessary for this.)

Rosveen wrote: »

Dubhliam wrote: »

69 items out of 716 is definitely not 38,49%

Take a second look at your statistics.

It would be best to upload an excel sheet like this one but with preset calculations and more extensive input cells.

She calculates the chance per crate, not per card.

Yep. I actually have both on my spreadsheet but I decided yesterday to only post the chance per crate. I think that's a more accurate representation of how likely you are to get a specific item, since we buy whole crates instead of individual cards.

I probably should upload a spreadsheet. To be honest there wasn't a lot of planning behind this. My original plan (based on the assumption that crates would cost 1 crown each on the PTS) was to buy 500-1000 and do a full test myself. When I found out we could only get 13 per day I decided to crowd source the data and I wanted to make it easy for people to join in, because recording drop rates is already pretty tedious.

Dubhliam wrote: »

@Danikat
Here you can find a detailed Excel sheet that anyone with the link can edit.
Saves you the trouble of collecting and editing the data.

Add this to your OP if you wish.

Thanks, that's really useful. Especially since I might not be able to update the post on Saturday.

feyii wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

Thanks to @rhapsodious , @Rosveen and @feyii!

If anyone's interested here's the list of items which haven't appeared yet. (According to the in-game preview these all drop from the crates.)

• Storm Atronach Camel
• Storm Atronach Horse
• Black Mane Lion Mount
• Clouded Senche-Leopard
• Frost Mare
• Mind-Shriven (skin)
• Orchid Nixad
• Red Pit Wolf Pup
• Rosy Netch Calf
• “Brilliance” Brocade Robes
• Feathered Headdress

Oh, the Red Pit Wolf Pup I got from at least one Box on the first day. But on it's own, this doesn't help for the statistics, sadly.
But I can at least confirm that the puppy drops.

I'm sure they all drop from the crates. Or at least I'm sure they're all supposed to drop from the crates and if they don't it's a bug. I have heard of drop rates being bugged before (sometimes crazily, like an item that's supposed to have a 1 in 100 chance instead being 1 in 100,000 or something).

I am starting to wonder about some of the items which haven't dropped, or have only dropped once. Especially things like the Brilliance Brocade Robes and the Feathered Headdress. They seem like they should be as common as other costumes/hair but at the moment it looks like they're at least as rare as the apex rewards.

With other things on that list it's harder to tell. The Frost Mare and Clouded Senche-Leopard for example could be intended to be rarer than the Storm Atronach mounts, either because they were previously "limited time exclusives" or because they're going to be in future crates and the Atronach items won't be.

But this is why you need a lot of data to get accurate info on RNG. I got a Storm Atronach bear in my 13th crate, so they seemed fairly common at that point. Other people haven't gotten one at all. Until today I hadn't gotten the Battlemage Palatine Armor, and then I got 3 sets. At the moment we "only" have 251 crates recorded. I'd really like 500+ before I start drawing any conclusions (although that's just a random number, I'm not going to start calculating P values for video game drops).

feyii

My drops from today's 13 boxes (rather disappointed with them, if it was live). I'll just add them up:

Cosmetic Items
3x Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
2x Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
1x Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
2x Evening Dress
1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
1x Battlemage Palatine Armor
1x Battlemage Tribune Armor
1x "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
1x Enveloping Scales
1x Shornhelm Shepherd

Consumables
5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
5x Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
4x Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
3x Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
3x Crown Lethal Poison (25)
2x Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
1x Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
1x Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Other
6x Crown Mimic Stone
3x Crown Repair Kit
2x Crown Soul Gem
1x Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
1x Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity

I'll continue to record them tomorrow.

It might also be interesting to note how often one gets a fifth card. On the first and second day each I had 1 of 13 boxes with five cards. Today all boxes just had four.

silvereyes

Day 1 drops. I don't have them subdivided by crate (sorry)

Total Crates: 13
Consumables

• 1x Crown Crate Experience Scroll (only 50% increase for 30 min. Not sure where the 150% increase shots are coming from)
• 1x Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
• 2x Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
• 50x Crown Lethal Poison
• 20x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 20x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer
• 25x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 15x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 45x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 2x Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
• 2x Crown Mimic Stones

Collectibles

• 1x "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
• 2x Feathered Bycoket Cap
• 2x Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
• 1x Roostertail Frills
• 1x "Brilliance" Brocade Robes
• 2x Battlemage Scout Captiain Uniform
• 2x Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
• 1x Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
• 1x Storm Orb Juggle Memento
• 1x Black Mask Bear-Dog

Day 2 drops, organized by crate

Crate 1

• 1x Roostertail Frills
• 1x Crown Crate Experience Scroll
• 1x Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

Crate 2

• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 10x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 1x Wrestler's Burr Cut

Crate 3

• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 1x Shornhelm Shepherd
• 1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison

Crate 4

• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 1x "Clever Man" Wizard Hat

Crate 5

• 1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
• 10x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 1x Helstrom Ancestor Lizard

Crate 6

• 1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
• 1x Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
• 5x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer
• 1x Crown Repair Kit

Crate 7

• 1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
• 1x Crown Soul Gem
• 1x Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
• 1x Fibonaccus Spiral Hat

Crate 8

• 5x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 1x Jawbone Blades
• 1x Crown Refreshing Drink
• 1x Storm Atronach Aura

Crate 9

• 1x Crown Soul Gem
• 1x Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 5x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer

Crate 10

• 10x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 1x Hedge Wizard's Claw Cap

Crate 11

• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 5x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer
• 1x Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer

Crate 12

• 1x Crown Leson: Riding Speed
• 2x Crown Mimic Stone
• 1x Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit

Crate 13

• 1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer

Video:
https://youtu.be/_3y3esI1VNc?t=2m59s

Day 3 drops, organized by crate

Crate 1

• 1x Crown Crate Experience Scroll
• 10x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 1x Clouded Senche-Leopard Cub

Crate 2

• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 1x Roostertail Frills

Crate 3

• 1x Storm Atronach Aura
• 5x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 5x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer

Crate 4

• 1x Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 1x Roostertail Frills

Crate 5

• 10x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform

Crate 6

• 5x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
• 1x Roostertail Frills
• 1x Shornhelm Shepherd
• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer

Crate 7

• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 1x Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
• 1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

Crate 8

• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 1x Hedge Wizard's Claw Cap
• 1x Fibonaccus Spiral Hat

Crate 9

• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer
• 1x Crown Experience Scroll
• 5x Crown Warrior's Elixer
• 1x Shadow Striping

Crate 10

• 5x Crown Invisibility Potion
• 1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
• 1x Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer

Crate 11

• 1x Rosy Netch Calf
• 1x Crown Mimic Stone
• 1x Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison

Crate 12

• 1x Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
• 1x Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
• 1x Crown Soul Gem
• 5x Crown Survivor's Elixer

Crate 13

• 5x Crown Spellcaster's Elixer
• 1x Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
• 25x Crown Lethal Poison
• 1x Crown Mimic Stone

Video:
https://youtu.be/zGAo89K2J04

shootyoureyeout

Day 1:

1 Crown Fortifying Meal
1 Crown Refreshing Drink
5 Invisibility Potions (25)
1 Riding Capacity Lesson
1 Riding Speed Lesson
1 Riding Stamina Lesson
5 Lethal Poison (25)
1 Crown Repair Kits
4 Spellcaster's Elixir (20)
4 Survivor's Elixir (20)
4 Tri-Resto Pots (20)
7 Warrior's Potions (35)
1 Clever Man Wizard Hat
1 Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
1 Imperial Mananaut Cap & Goggles Hat
1 Wrestler's Burr Cut Hairstyle
1 Roostertail Frills Hairstyle
1 Jawbone Blades
1 Bellydancer Veil
1 Battlemage Palatine Armor
1 Soul Shriven Armor OUtfit
1 Shadow Striping
1 Storm Atronach Transform
1 Mind Shriven Horse
1 Storm Atronach Senche Mount
1 Daedric Scamp (previously owned - received 5 gems)
1 Helstrom Ancestor Lizard
1 Shornhelm Shepherd

Alarra

From my first 13 crates; not sure how helpful this is since I opened them the day before I found this thread, and am just going by what's in my inventory/collections.

Fibonaccus Spiral Hat x1
Wrestler's Burr Cut x1
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet x1
Jawbone Blades x1
Belly Dancer Veil x2
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform x1
High-Collared Coin Ball Gown x1
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit x1
Storm Atronach Aura x1
Storm Atronach Transform x1
Shornhelm Shepherd x1
Crown Crate Experience Scroll x2
Crown Crate Foritfying Meal x1
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink x1
Crown Invisibility Potion x25
Crown Riding Lesson: Capacity x1
Crown Riding Lesson: Speed x1
Crown Riding Lesson: Stamina x3
Crown Lethal Poison x75
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir x25
Crown Survivor's Elixir x25
Crown Tri-Restoration x10
Crown Warrior's Elixir x25

+ 2 duplicates that I can't remember.
Also, out of the 13, one was a five-card crate.

Here was my second batch of 13. One was a five-card crate.

Crown Mimic Stone
Shadow Striping
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (duplicate; 5 gems)
Battlemage Palatine Armor
Crown Invisibility Potion (5)

Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Soul Gem
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

Crown Crate Foritfying Meal
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Dwarf-Style Mage's Hat

Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Shornhelm Shepherd (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)

Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

Crown Mimic Stone
Battlemage Palatine Armor (duplicate; 5 gems)
High-Collared Coin Ball Gown (duplicate; 13 gems)
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Crown Mimic Stone

Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)

Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Mimic Stone
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Mimic Stone

Evening Dress
Jawbone Blades (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
Crown Mimic Stone

Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Storm Atronach Aura (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Crown Soul Gem
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform (duplicate; 5 gems)
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)

Acrolas

So out of 26 boxes, only two are worth mentioning.
I'd bother with the other 24, but,
1. The consumable quantity isn't on the card.
2. The game can't even be *** to show you the full name of the item ...

The one where I got the Black Mane Lion (Day 1).




And the five-card with the Palomino (Day 2).

silvereyes

Acrolas wrote: »

So out of 26 boxes, only two are worth mentioning.
I'd bother with the other 24, but,
1. The consumable quantity isn't on the card.
2. The game can't even be *** to show you the full name of the item ...

I would definitely report the item name getting chopped off as a bug. All the cards' full names, including quantity, show up for me.

hrothbern

I did spend 36,400 Crowns on my two accounts (7 crates).

aggregated score sofar:

1. 0 Storm Atronach Mounts (Apex items. I like the Wolf and the Tiger)
2. 6 Legendary items (including the Red Pit Wolf Mount and the pup that I like)
3. 291 Crown Gems

Enodoc

I'm stockpiling a bunch to open on Sunday. Will let you know the drops then!

Rosveen

silvereyes wrote: »

Acrolas wrote: »

So out of 26 boxes, only two are worth mentioning.
I'd bother with the other 24, but,
1. The consumable quantity isn't on the card.
2. The game can't even be *** to show you the full name of the item ...

I would definitely report the item name getting chopped off as a bug. All the cards' full names, including quantity, show up for me.

Same here. But quantity is in parentheses at the end of the name, so if the name gets chopped in half, well...

Arkhaniir

Today's crates: (More Evening Dresses!)

Crate 1:
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Wretler's Burr Cut
Crown Warrior's Elixir

Crate 2:
Crow Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Shornhelm Shepherd

Crate 3:
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Mimic Stone
Shornhelm Shepherd

Crate 4:
Crown Invisibility Potion
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Shadow Striping

Crate 5:
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Soul Gem
Battlemage Tribune Armor
Crown Warrior's Elixir

Crate 6:
Battlemage Scout Captain Armor
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Crate 7:
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

Crate 8:
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Shadow Striping
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Invisiblity Potion

Crate 9:
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Evening Dress

Crate 10:
Crown Repair Kit
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Warrior's Elixir

Crate 11:
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Palomino Horse
Crown Invisibility Potion

Crate 12
"Brilliance" Brocade Robes
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Repair Kit
Evening Dress

Crate 13
Crown Mimic Stone
Upright Antler Skullcap
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Daedric Scamp

Another ~50$ for absolutely nothing I will use. Well, maybe one of the 40Gem items due to all those replicates. If I get few more Evening Dresses though...

Also I appreciate the work you're putting into this, @Danikat.

MarkusLiberty

Here's my day 1 stuff.

I can't actually see the cards due to some bug, so collectibles that end up being duplicates are marked as unknown on my list. "Thankfully" there was only one of them today, which was eather a Mind Shriven horse or a Mind Shriven Skin.

It seems like I did myself a favour by purchasing the Imperial City bundle, as a couple of the legendary rewards are from that bundle, which are worth 33 gems per duplicate

Crate 1

Soul Shriven Leather [Costume]
Crown Spellcaster
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

Crate 2

Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Unkown collectible (worth 33 gems, gotta be a Mind Shirven horse or skin)

Crate 3

Crown Leathal Poison
Crown Repait Kit
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Feathered Headress [Hair Style]

Crate 4
Crown Crate Experience Scrolls
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Wrestler's Burr Cut [Hair Style]

Crate 4
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Crown Leathal Poison
Evening Dress [Costume]

Crate 5
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Invisibility Potion
Battlemage Tribune Armor [Costume]

Crate 6
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Leathal Poison
Deadric Scamp [Pet]
Crown Mimic Stone

Crate 7
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing [Costume]

Crate 8
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Leathal Poison
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Feathered Boycoket Cap [Hat]

Crate 9
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Storm Atronach Aura [Mementos]

Crate 10
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Shadow Striping [Body Markings]

Crate 11
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Soul-Srhiven Armor Outfit [Costume]

Crate 12
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Battlemage Palatine Armor [Costume]


Crate 13
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Leathal Poison
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Helstrom Ancestor Lizard [Pet]

Cazzy

Isn't it possible the could reduce drop rates before going live? I'm almost wondering if rates are slightly enhanced to sway people (even though it's still terrible and not working).

Lumenn

Cazzy wrote: »

Isn't it possible the could reduce drop rates before going live? I'm almost wondering if rates are slightly enhanced to sway people (even though it's still terrible and not working).

They could do so before and after at anytime. Pretty much whenever they wish. Today good, tomorrow bad, next day REALLY bad, then good....

FireCowCommando

Cazzy wrote: »

Isn't it possible the could reduce drop rates before going live? I'm almost wondering if rates are slightly enhanced to sway people (even though it's still terrible and not working).

If they did, its not like the player base could figure it out before its too late for the majority that will use these. Asking people to pool their results when you actually have to PAY for these is going to be a whole heck of a lot harder.

Acrolas

Day 3 gets me a lizard, a nixad, and 45 gems.

I put the rest in a heavy sack and now Pacrooti is feeding the slaughterfish on the bottom of Lake Rumare.

Rosveen

day 3 & 4

crate 1
Crown Spellcater's Elixir
Battlemage Tribune Armor
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina

crate 2
2x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Shadow Striping

crate 3
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion
Clouded Senche-Leopard Cub
Crown Soul Gem

crate 4
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Warrior's Elixir
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet

crate 5
Shadow Striping
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion

crate 6
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Storm Atronach Aura
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Lethal Poison

crate 7
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
2x Crown Mimic Stone
Storm Atronach Bear Mount

crate 8
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity

crate 9
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Shornhelm Shepard

crate 10
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit

crate 11
2x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Mimic Stone
Evening Dress

crate 12
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Lethal Poison
High-Collared Coin Ball Gown
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet

crate 13
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Black Mask Bear-Dog
Crown Mimic Stone

crate 14
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Invisibility Potion
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit

crate 15
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Crown lesson: Riding Capacity
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

crate 16
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Crown Survivor's Elixir

crate 17
Crown Mimic Stone
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Warrior's Elixir

crate 18
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Crown Mimic Stone
Battlemage Tribune Armor

crate 19
Crown Repair Kit
2x Crown Invisibility Potion
Soul-Shirven Armor Outfit

crate 20
Crown Invisibility Potion
2x Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Battlemage Palatine Armor

crate 21
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir
Battlemage Palatine Armor

crate 22
Wrestler's Burr Cut
2x Crown Invisibility Potion
Crown Mimic Stone

crate 23
Crown Lethal Poison
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Enveloping Scales
Battlemage Palatine Armor
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

crate 24
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion
Crown Fortifying Meal
Crown Invisibility Potion
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform

crate 25
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
Crown Survivor's Elixir
Roostertail Frills
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion

Danikat

Thanks to @feyii , @silvereyes , @shootyoureyeout , @Alarra , @Acrolas , @Arkhaniir , @MarkusLiberty and @Rosveen !

Acrolas wrote: »

So out of 26 boxes, only two are worth mentioning.
I'd bother with the other 24, but,
1. The consumable quantity isn't on the card.
2. The game can't even be *** to show you the full name of the item ...

The one where I got the Black Mane Lion (Day 1).




And the five-card with the Palomino (Day 2).

Firstly I think that's a bug, whenever I've opened crates it shows the full name and then the amount, going onto a 2nd line if necessary.

But also for this topic it doesn't actually matter what quantity of each consumable you get per card. The point is to record how many cards give you a particular item, so we can work out how likely you are to get that. Which also means all crates are equally useful to record, even if there's nothing interesting in them.

Arkhaniir wrote: »

Another ~50$ for absolutely nothing I will use. Well, maybe one of the 40Gem items due to all those replicates. If I get few more Evening Dresses though...

Also I appreciate the work you're putting into this, @Danikat.

Maybe the game is trying to tell you something?

Meanwhile I have 2 characters on Live who wear the Evening Dress and I feel like I'm mainly getting Battlemage Scout armour and Soul-Shriven Leather, two outfits I'd never wear.

Cazzy wrote: »

Isn't it possible the could reduce drop rates before going live? I'm almost wondering if rates are slightly enhanced to sway people (even though it's still terrible and not working).

It's certainly possible and I did consider that before starting this project but my thinking is it's better to know what the drop rates used to be than to have no info at all. Of course we could always run the experiment again when the crates are released but that involves people spending real money on them, and that won't be me.

But I think it's unlikely they'd reduce the drop rates much. For the rarest items we're already down to 0.25% (which means you'd have to open approximately 400 crates to get them).

Remember the point of these isn't to taunt players with items they'll never have (as much as it might feel like it), the point is to make money and just like you don't make the most profit from a restaurant by jacking the prices up to the maximum you can possibly get away with you don't make the most profit from gambling by making it so that players will never win.

You make it so they'll win rarely and win the big jackpot even more rarely. This is also why almost every crate has at least 1 cosmetic item (and the ones that don't have rarer consumables like XP scrolls). It means players are more likely to tell themselves "Well I didn't get what I wanted, but at least I got X". X might be something you never wanted and will never use, but it still gives that almost subconscious sense that you got something 'special' which makes you more likely to think next time you'll get lucky and therefore more likely to keep trying.

Edit: Although come to think of it you wouldn't actually need to open 400 crates to get a specific apex reward because by then you'd almost certainly have more than enough crown gems. So I'm not sure how many it would take in reality to get a specific one. I might try and work that out at some point.

Rosveen

Danikat wrote: »

But also for this topic it doesn't actually matter what quantity of each consumable you get per card. The point is to record how many cards give you a particular item, so we can work out how likely you are to get that. Which also means all crates are equally useful to record, even if there's nothing interesting in them.

In fact, focusing only on crates with valuable rewards is damaging to the research because it results in artifically inflated drop chance of epic/apex items. We should report either everything or nothing.

rhapsodious

Thursday is a terrible awful no-good very bad day for me so I forgot to post the data, but I have it. I have today's, too.

Breakdown by crate:

Day 3:

gems @ start: 60
gems @ end: 118

Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Mimic Stone
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform

Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Evening Dress
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Battlemage Palatine Armor
Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)

Belly Dancer Veil
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
The Aurbic Eye
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform

Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Jawbone Blades
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Soul Gem
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Major Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Wrestler’s Burr Cut
Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat

Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)

Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)

Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink

Day 4:

gems @ start: 18
gems @ end: 68

Shadow Striping
Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Roostertail Frills
Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5)
Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
Chub Loon (5th card)
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
Mind-Shriven Horse
Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)

Crown Lethal Poison (25)
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
Battlemage Palatine Armor

Storm Orb Juggle
Jawbone Blades
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Crown Mimic Stone

Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Feathered Bycoket Cap
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Repair Kit

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Crown Mimic Stone
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit

Wrestler’s Burr Cut
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Crown Lethal Poison (25)

Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5)
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Crown Mimic Stone

Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
Crown Repair Kit
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5)
Battlemage Tribune Armor

Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
Battlemage Tribune Armor
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

Consolidated for both days:

Crown Warrior’s Elixir (5) x6
Crown Invisibility Potion (5) x6
Crown Survivor’s Elixir (5) x11
Crown Spellcaster’s Elixir (5) x10
Crown Lethal Poison (25) x9
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5) x8

Crown Repair Kit x4
Crown Mimic Stone x7
Crown Soul Gem x1

Crown Crate Refreshing Drink x5
Crown Crate Experience Scroll x2
Major Crown Crate Experience Scroll
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal

Crown Lesson: Riding Speed x2
Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina x2


Mind-Shriven Horse
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
Shadow Striping
Roostertail Frills
Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet x2
Chub Loon (5th card)
Storm Orb Juggle
Jawbone Blades x2
Feathered Bycoket Cap x3
Wrestler’s Burr Cut x2
Battlemage Tribune Armor x2
Battlemage Palatine Armor x2
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform x2
Evening Dress
Belly Dancer Veil
The Aurbic Eye
Fibonaccus Spiral Hat x3

Elsonso

You can include this data that I posted in the official thread, if you have not grabbed it already.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3376887/#Comment_3376887

feyii

Two new days from me. On the first of these two days, one box had 5 cards:

Consumables
6 Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
7 Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
4 Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
2 Crown Lethal Poison (25)
1 Major Crown Crate Experience Sroll (this is the one, that gives a 100% XP boost)
2 Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
4 Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
1 Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)

Collectables
4 Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
1 "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
2 Soul-Shriven Ragged Clothing
2 Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet
2 Storm Orb Juggle
2 Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit
1 Evening Dress
1 Shadow Striping

Other
5 Crown Mimic Stone
2 Crown Repair Kit

3 Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina

Consumables
5 Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
1 Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
1 Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
1 Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
3 Crown Lethal Poison (25)
6 Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
4 Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
4 Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
1 Crown Crate Experience Scroll

Collectables
1 Aurbical Symbols
1 Battlemage Tribune Armor
1 Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
1 Feathered Bycoket
2 Jawbone Blades
1 Storm Atronach Guar Mount
1 Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
1 Evening Dress
1 Storm Atronach Aura
1 Shornhelm Shepherd
1 Belly Dancer Veil
1 Shadow Striping

Other
5 Crown Mimic Stone
3 Crown Soul Gem
1 Crown Repair Kit

1 Crown Lesson: Riding Capacity
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina

silvereyes

Two more days. I'm not really motivated to tabulate them here, but if you want to check out the 2 minute video, all the crate contents are shown.

https://youtu.be/4ynmqhC_c9c

Dojohoda

Today's 13 Crown Crates
The only thing on this list that I want, and have been wanting for a long time, is the Clouded Senche-Leopard Mount. I'd like to outright buy it though, not gamble for it.

Azure Brow-to-Temple Circlet - 1
Battlemage Palatine Armor - 1
Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform - 1
Clouded Senche-Leopard MOUNT - 1
Crown Crate Experience Scroll - 2
Crown Crate Fortifying Meal - 1
Crown Invisibility Potion - 5
Crown Lesson - Riding Speed - 1
Crown Lesson - Riding Stamina - 1
Crown Mimic Stone - 8
Crown Repair Kit - 1
Crown Spellcaster's Elixir - 6
Crown Survivor's Elixir - 5
Crown Tri-Restoration Potion - 2
Crown Warrior's Elixir - 5
Daedric Scamp - 1
Feathered Bycoket Cap - 1
Feathered Headdress - 1
Jawbone Blades - 1
Major Crown Crate Experience Scroll - 1
Shadow Striping - 2
Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit - 1
Soul-Shriven Leather Outfit - 2
Wrestler's Burr Cut - 1

Twitch stream of the crates being opened:
https://www.twitch.tv/dojohoda/v/91160631

Truthsnark

Thirteen Crates for today (one with an extra fifth card). I have opened crates before but not tracked them - I have gotten a fifth card three times including today. The fifth card has always been an Apex, Legendary, or Epic item.

4 Crown Crate Fortifying Meal
1 Crown Crate Refreshing Drink
6 Crown Survivor's Elixir (5)
2 Crown Lethal Poison (25)
4 Crown Warrior's Elixir (5)
8 Crown Spellcaster's Elixir (5)
3 Crown Tri-Restoration Potion (5)
3 Crown Invisibility Potion (5)
3 Crown Mimic Stone
2 Crown Repair Kit
1 Crown Soul Gem
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Stamina
1 Crown Lesson: Riding Speed
1 Frost Mare
2 Fibonaccus Spiral Hat
2 Battlemage Scout Captain Uniform
1 Storm Atronach Aura
2 "Clever Man" Wizard Hat
1 Helstrom Ancestor Lizard
1 Shadow Stripe Headwrap (fifth card)
1 Evening Dress
1 Battlemage Palatine Armor
1 Soul-Shriven Armor Outfit
1 Roostertail Frills