Refined 860 Rubedire Ore and reaped 1 Tempering Alloy

helediron

Personofsecrets wrote: »

Grunim wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

loot generation in this game is seeded

Could you explain in layman's terms what seeded loot generation means in this context.

Basically what @Talemire said.

" 2) Each crafting session (entering crafting mode) is like rolling a DnD die"

This is why some people get the same stuff over and over when opening mass undaunted chests or IC containers too. Some people even used to think that loot was based off of rolls tied to the specific servers that players are connected to. I don't necessarily believe in seeding to that extent, but I still see instanced RNG sessions happening like Talemire says.

No, a session is not seeded nor session has a DnD roll. Each refine individually has DnD roll. I think this needs a longer explanation.

Seeding is actually part of pseudo-RNG functionality, and it always needs initializing with a seed number. Pseudo-RNG itself is a function, whch returns next number based on previous. Seeding is nothing evil. It simply initializes an RNG series to one of billions of possible number series.

Dilbert's RNG generator can be made by seeding with nine and using function that returns the previous number.

Actual implementations use the whole number range of seeds, and the function uses floating point calculations, which makes the series numbers to jump over all the available number space. Think of rolling a rigged dice of four billion rigged dices, and you don't know which one is in use this time. And the dices themselves have four billion sides.

So yes, actually RNG is not at all random, it's predictable series of numbers. You just don't know which one series of billions possible it is this time. But for all practical purposes it appears random, and you can't bump the crafting table.

I myself have coded several programs using RNG. I have used e.g. date, time, milliseconds, mouse position and computer id together to calculate the seed with a hash function from all of those inputs. I guarantee i can never guess what is the next seed coming out from that.

failkiwib16_ESO

swirve wrote: »

Ive not had a gold resin ftom refining since tg launched...thousands refined. I have given up now.

@swirve each craft have a passive skill that requires you to use 3 skillpoints in, when you do that you can extract gold materials from refining.

If you use the 3 skillpoints in Blacksmithing, but you refine materials for Woodworking you will get 0 gold materials, so make sure you are refining materials for the craft you have spent the skillpoints for.

sickboy2808

The writs are bad now as well. Its all because of the exploit and ZOS hurting the good players. What a great company that runs this game

sickboy2808

The writs are bad now as well. Its all because of the exploit and ZOS hurting the good players. What a great company that runs this game

Bobby_V_Rockit

Magic, got it.

Narnor

With so many players refining and writing on forums it would be odd NOT to have someone refine 800 ores only to get 1 tempering alloy.

I once refined 200 ore, got 3 alloys, the next i regined again, got 0.

If you want to make a proper statisticsl analysis, refine 10.000 ore (equivalent to 1000 samples since 1 sample = 10 ore). That should rougly give the drop chance.

EDIT: Funny to see all this superstition rising from this ;-) it would be odd if ZOS created higher chance of getting alloys because of different factors. Although unforseen consequences in coding can happen.
Just beware comfirmation bias!

Bryanonymous

RNG is a gamble, and like real casinos, nothing is a sure bet.

raasdal

helediron wrote: »

OP, that is refining as usual. You just had too small batch. Try with at least 5000. When i refine, it's quite usual to have 500 mats streaks getting nothing, and then several goldens rapidly. even dry spells of 1000 occurs occasionally.

Mythbusting:
- Moving goldens somewhere else is just a myth and superstition.
- All materials drop with same rate. Low levels giving more is a myth. Low levels giving less is a myth.
- Dynamic droprate is a myth.
- <insert rumor here>, i refined 200 and didn't get my golden, is a myth.
- <insert rumor here>, i refined 200 and got three goldens, is a myth.

All these myths fail when refining 10000 mats. Stop being silly.

This...

Talemire wrote: »

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

How many temp alloys do you have in your bank / on toon?

I have 32 in my bank so far. 800+ reaped me two yesterday and one today. I am used to getting anywhere from 5-7 per 800+ ore.

You have your explanation right here. The droprate is app. 5% per refining action (10 Ore), making it 1 Gold Temper per stack of 200 raw materials. So refining 800 ore, WILL yield you 4 Gold Temper. If you have been getting more than that for some time, it is only natural that you now experience a balancing of that, by receiving less.

If you refine 1.000.000 mats, you will end up with the result of having gotten app. 5000 gold tempers.

BRogueNZ

DRXHarbinger wrote: »

Most likely cause though is zos have been spiteful to all of us due to the previous exploit.

maybe this, thing is the guar has bolted. I also think it has lot to do with how easy reasonably good sets are to obtain.

The challenging part is getting it all yellow with such nasty 'luck' for anyone not already rolling in it.

BruhItsOver9000

No lying, this actually happened, i had 60 rubedite, i refined and got 4 tempering alloys.

BRogueNZ

BruhItsOver9000 wrote: »

No lying, this actually happened, i had 60 rubedite, i refined and got 4 tempering alloys.

That's your annual quota I'm afraid

I got lucky and found 20 at 3k each.. careless or carefree seller I pinched it before some guildmaster with 50mil saw it.

Lord_Eomer

Lucky you atleast have 1, I processed yesterday around 500 and have not gotten a single.

Bigevilpeter

The rate of yellow mat drop is stupidly low, upgrading weapons is a must and I can't pay 100k just to upgrade 1 weapon ffs!!!

Whil it should still be rng I thing the drop rate should be higher the current prices are just insane

ShirleyShine

The secret of having them when you need them is DO NOT sell them
I've run heavy armour since launch, got my first TA from a wet gunny sack fished up on the beach at Kenarthi's Roost.
Went legendary for the 1st time on my VR1 swords, and only gold finally on my VR16 gear.
I'd say that the drop is pretty much 1 per 200 in my experience, with some dry spells, then "luck" sometimes with 2, or even 3 dropping from 60 ore.
Writs, hireling been a good source too, and the odd ones from gunny sacks and heavy sacks.
My first 2 Kuta also came from a wet gunny sack.

ShirleyShine

Edit: I remember, I did not get Alloy from a heavy sack, only wet gunny sacks. Sorry.

I_killed_Vivec

I have bucket loads of legendary tempers, and I'm positively dripping in nirncrux - they really should nerf the drop rates because the market is collapsing

I've just been returned 2 kuta that I had on sale for 6500 for a month, so I suppose people must have plenty of those too.

There's been a plummet in the price of glass fragments, so I suppose people must be getting plenty of those too. Or maybe glass is just no longer fashionable...

I know that RNG is being kind to me, and I know it can all change, because I've been there before, but the drop rate from refining seems to be pretty constant at around 1 from 100. It's the writ rewards that have been over-generous for me

Tan9oSuccka

I have no actual facts to support it, but Rubedite Ore seems to very rarely drop Tempering Alloy for me.

Lower materials, especially Iron through Ebony seems to have a greater chance.