8 TOTAL LOCKPICKS TO SLAY THE TREASURE CHEST BOSS / VIDEO

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

Hello people.

The Locksmith passive under the Legerdemain skill line has been broken for years. Everyone knows this. I would like to bring this to attention again in hopes that it might be fixed.

Also, another idea is to allow us to have a "Skeleton Key" like the one in Skyrim, that cannot break. Perhaps it could be a reward from event tickets or something? Just a thought.

I'll post a video of my last dungeon fighting the treasure chest boss. It took 8 total picks to slay the beast! Enjoy...

https://youtu.be/hYeBULpEht8

zaria · April 2023

RND is kind of random

TybaltKaine · April 2023

It's RND. Some days I one click everything, some days I get stuck clicking a simple for 10 picks. Just how the digital dice fall.

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

The "RNG" is broken on the Locksmith passive. This happens way too often. 80% chance should not fail 7x in a row as often as it does. A simple chest has an 85% chance, but it really feels like it's 50% at best. I would bet if a serious study was done on the matter, the "RNG" probability, like 80% chance, would not match the what actually happens.

If you opened 100 treasure chest that has an 80% chance, 80 of those would not open on the first try. You'd be lucky to have 50 at best.

TybaltKaine · April 2023

That's not how the 80% works. It's an 80% chance per attempt, not a flat 80%. So, you still have a 20% fail chance for every pick you use. It's just like saying "Roll a 3 or higher on a D6" and you rolled 7 2's or 1's. It happens.

Stanx · April 2023

This has been brought up before and it's not broken it's just RNG. I force locks periodically as I'm super lazy with chests and it's not quite the pandemic it seems according to this post. One video instance is also hardly enough evidence.

Sure, I've had times where I fail a lock pick 7 times, and most of the times it's a 'simple' lock which feels even crazier but it's just RNG.

Also, like @typaltkaine has said, it's not an overall %, it's per attempt

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

Idc how you cut it, slice it, dice it, or splice it. Everyone knows it's broken. It's unlike any % chance ever on anything. It fails way more often than it should.

The chance of failure on the each try is 20% or 0.20, and chances of sequential events are multiplied together so therefore the chance of failure 7 times in a row is… .2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2 = .0000128 = .00128% chance of my pick breaking 7x in a row.

Also, is it possible we can get a "Skeleton Key" please? I think most people would really want this.

Soarora · April 2023

It doesn’t seem statistically probable to me but that doesn’t prove it’s broken either. I don’t see the point in a skeleton key, theres so many lockpicks.

Dr_Con · April 2023

I don't think the servers roll a 1/5 chance each time, but if they did, failing 7 times in a row would only have happened 1 in 78125 times of finding an intermediate chest.

Necrotech_Master · April 2023

8 for a simple is pretty rough

my worse record for that is 13 lol

RoseVex · April 2023

i've noticed that clicking on a chest and instantly pressing force seems to make it fail more often, sometimes waiting an extra second or two means success

Marcus684 · April 2023

I've wondered if maybe there's a server lag issue in play when you get several failed forces in a row on a simple chest. Maybe the server rolled a fail when you first tried to force the chest, then kept defaulting to that fail while it waited for the server to reroll for your subsequent attempts. On a purely rng basis, the multiple fails in a row that we've all seen seem to push the limits of credibility for just "bad luck".

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

Whatever determines how the RNG works on the Locksmith passive, most of us can agree that something is wrong.

My hypothesis is that it might be character based RNG. The more you play on a character, the lower it might go. It's just a guess. I do know that they track your MMR through BG's per character. This also affects how the BG's style pages drop. A character that's never played in BG's will get random people to fight. That character will also have a better chance of getting a motif.

It stands to reason that your character might have a RNG factor associated to some other things as well.

TybaltKaine · April 2023

It could be a lag thing, but it also just could be bad luck. Like, no one is ever posting a video of the 5 or 6 consecutive one click chests they get. That is just as skewed IMO especially if they are all varying in challenge and thus in the success percentage.

It's just as wild to get a bunch of one shots in a row as it is to get an eight pick intermediate. Sometimes the dice just fall in your favor, sometimes they don't. That's part of the risk of the one click.

If you want a better chance at success, manually pick the lock. Otherwise, the force lock system would be all anyone does, and what's the point of locks at all then?

VaranisArano · April 2023

Locksmith passives work as indicated on overland chests. Source: I've actually tracked my data.

As of March: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/7822883#Comment_7822883

Compared to 2018: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/413835/double-checking-zos-force-lock-percentages

Locksmith Passives seem significantly lower on Thieves Heist chests. Source: Rittings tracked the data. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/390876/force-lock-percentage-is-incorrect-not-working-as-intended/p1

I have no idea if Dungeon chests work correctly or not. I suggest you track your data.

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

"Works as indicated". "Works as intended". Okay....just saying.

How about a Skeleton Key? Those who want to use it can, and those who don't want it, don't use it. Seems to solve the issue.

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

Also, the data collected may be skewed by "character RNG" as I previously described. The person who did their test may have a different character RNG than someone else. It's just a thought.

Most of my characters have an absurd amout of time played on them. I'm over 20k hours played. I might be seeing different results.

VaranisArano · April 2023

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Also, the data collected may be skewed by "character RNG" as I previously described. The person who did their test may have a different character RNG than someone else. It's just a thought.

Okay, then it won't be a problem for you to start tracking your data to prove your hypothesis, right?

I'm sorry, but after so many players roll into the forums complaining about their bad RNG when it comes to material refining and none of them ever bring large samples of data and none of their issues show up when people do present large samples of data, I am more than a little skeptical when posters show one or three data points and draw conclusions.

Seriously, even a hundred simple chests would be enough to demonstrate whether there's a little fire in amidst all that smoke.

LalMirchi · April 2023

Lock-picks is an euphemism I would rather call these toothpicks, LOL

ArchMikem · April 2023

I'd think if RNG hated you that much after the 3rd or 4th attempt, I'd just manually pick that chest.

Hotdog_23 · April 2023

Marcus684 wrote: »

I've wondered if maybe there's a server lag issue in play when you get several failed forces in a row on a simple chest. Maybe the server rolled a fail when you first tried to force the chest, then kept defaulting to that fail while it waited for the server to reroll for your subsequent attempts. On a purely rng basis, the multiple fails in a row that we've all seen seem to push the limits of credibility for just "bad luck".

Often thought that it is some sort of server issue myself. Notice it I want a second or two then my chances for failure goes down dramatically, Sure I still fail but never more than 3 times before I succeed. If I go instantly as the screen pops up, I get a lot more failures that way.

Stay safe

rpa · April 2023

I always pick locks manually. If someone does not approve in group content (where everyone gets to loot the chest), they are welcome to do it by themself in their way. I do not care who opens a dungeon chest as long someone does it.
Of randoom, sometimes feels like game either does not roll again or reseeds rng with same same seed (seeding prng more than once with any seed during simulation/game is a fundamental bug) and uses same value if doing same thing in succession within a short time. But that can and will happen with perfect rng used correctly. Probability for 7 tries to fail in row with fail probability of 0.2 per try is 0.0000128‬ or 1/78125 tries. Lower than change of being receiving end of homicide in USA in year but not impossible.

opalcity · April 2023

I guess I'm not everyone, because it works OK for me. But I pick locks as much as I force them because it's pretty easy and almost as quick. Plus I like to keep in practice for leveling up a new character.

It's RNG. You had a bad run of luck, just pick the locks next time, it only takes a few more seconds than bumping.

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

Not everyone has to to pick the locks in a dungeon. My group was actually doing a trifecta run. We were 3 dps and a companion. We were in a hurry. We still collect chests, and heavy sacks. We have time, but 8 picks for a single chest...

The time constraints is why I sounded stressed in the video. I'm okay with a break, or two, then we move on, but 8 picks later...

Heartrage · April 2023

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Idc how you cut it, slice it, dice it, or splice it. Everyone knows it's broken. It's unlike any % chance ever on anything. It fails way more often than it should.

The chance of failure on the each try is 20% or 0.20, and chances of sequential events are multiplied together so therefore the chance of failure 7 times in a row is… .2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2 = .0000128 = .00128% chance of my pick breaking 7x in a row.

Also, is it possible we can get a "Skeleton Key" please? I think most people would really want this.

.00128% is not 0%, it’s going to happen.

MasterSpatula · April 2023

Heartrage wrote: »

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Idc how you cut it, slice it, dice it, or splice it. Everyone knows it's broken. It's unlike any % chance ever on anything. It fails way more often than it should.

The chance of failure on the each try is 20% or 0.20, and chances of sequential events are multiplied together so therefore the chance of failure 7 times in a row is… .2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2 = .0000128 = .00128% chance of my pick breaking 7x in a row.

Also, is it possible we can get a "Skeleton Key" please? I think most people would really want this.

.00128% is not 0%, it’s going to happen.

Come on, man, that ".00128%" isn't just "going to happen," it's bloody consistent, and we all know it

VvwvenomwvV · April 2023

.00128% is not 0%, it’s going to happen.[/quote]

Come on, man, that ".00128%" isn't just "going to happen," it's bloody consistent, and we all know it[/quote]

It happens all the time. It's usually 3-5 picks that will break, even on a simple chest with an 85% of opening. 15% chance of failure....break, break, break...uggghhh.

Anyway, is there any chance that we can get a "Skeleton Key", like the one in Skyrim that was unbreakable?

Tra_Lalan · April 2023

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Also, another idea is to allow us to have a "Skeleton Key" like the one in Skyrim, that cannot break. Perhaps it could be a reward from event tickets or something? Just a thought.

Great idea, would love to have that in ESO.

SpacemanSpiff1 · April 2023

lmao that's hilarious.

you coulda just picked the lock.

Dr_Con · April 2023

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Anyway, is there any chance that we can get a "Skeleton Key", like the one in Skyrim that was unbreakable?

There is no reason not to implement the skeleton key except for "This door is locked" interactions where the devs at the time didn't decide to "Bar the door from the otherside" as the interaction. This mostly pertains to quests, however, where doors unlock as progression occurs, or the locked door at the end of a dungeon opens up for a quick exit rather than crawling backwards and fighting the same enemies on your way out.

Brrrofski · April 2023

VvwvenomwvV wrote: »

Anyway, is there any chance that we can get a "Skeleton Key", like the one in Skyrim that was unbreakable?

How would a Skelton key help?

You still had to pick the locks. So how would it solve the issue you have?

They're separate things.

Anyway, always seem to work fine for me. Usually works first time.