Double-checking ZOS - Force Lock Percentages

VaranisArano

Partly inspired by this February thread Force Lock Percentage is incorrect in which @Rittings logged 2,000 forced locks with a supposed 80% success rate, but had an actual success rate of 57.35%, I started collecting my own stats on force lock.

I used force lock on overland chests in multiple zones. From that thread, it sounds like the author tested Thieves Guild Heist chests, but I'm unsure if that would make a difference. I did not attempt to do anything special while opening the chest, like waiting a second or two, so over 2,000 chests, I'm pretty sure any waiting/not waiting effect would be randomized.


Data:
Out of 2,008 found chests: 58% Simple, 31% Intermediate, 7% Advanced, and 4% Master.

Simple Chests theoretically have an 85% success rate (with full force lock passives).
My findings: 1,167 success/1,368 attempts
My Success Rate: 85.3%

Intermediate Chests theoretically have an 80% success rate.
My findings: 616 successes/747 attempts
My Success rate: 82.4%

I didn't really find enough Advanced or Master chests to consider these results significant, but they may be interesting to include.

Advanced Chests theoretically have a 75% success rate.
My findings: 142 successes/200 attempts
My Success Rate: 71%

Master Chests theoretically have a 70% success rate.
My findings: 83 successes/110 attempts
My Success Rate: 75.5%

(As you can see, the data for Advanced and Master is skewed by the low numbers of chests I found, yet still not far off the expected outcomes.)


Conclusions:
Unlike the previous thread, my data for Simple and Intermediate chests remained right in line with the expected values of 85% and 80% success rates. By my data, ZOS' Force Lock percentages are working correctly for Simple and Intermediate overland chests.


If you are interested in how many tries it took to open each type of chest, the data is under the spoiler for size. The most I every had was 6 tries on a Simple chest, 4 tries on a Intermediate Chest, and 7 tries for Advanced and Master chests.

Other Interesting Data
Simple Chests
1st Try - 1,000
2nd try - 141
3rd try - 21
4th try - 3
5th try - 1
6th try - 1

Intermediate Chests
1st Try - 511
2nd try - 84
3rd try - 16
4th try - 5

Advanced Chests
1st Try - 106
2nd try - 23
3rd try - 8
4th try - 3
5th try - 5
6th try - 0
7th try - 1

Master Chests
1st Try - 65
2nd try - 13
3rd try - 4
4th try - 0
5th try - 0
6th try - 0
7th try - 1

Runs

How does this not have any comments...

This is awesome, thank you so much for keeping track of them. They always seem to be off for me but I've never logged a big enough sample size to double check.

jedtb16_ESO

i am bemused....

why force a lock when they are so easy to pick?

force lock % chance of success.

pick lock, face roll easy, 100% of the time.

i really don't get it.

idk

Runs wrote: »

How does this not have any comments...

This is awesome, thank you so much for keeping track of them. They always seem to be off for me but I've never logged a big enough sample size to double check.

Have you not noticed so much of the forums is complaining. Heck, complaining players often get upset when other information is provided or a dissenting opinion enters the frat.

This was not a complaining thread so it was doomed from the start.

VaranisArano

jedtb16_ESO wrote: »

i am bemused....

why force a lock when they are so easy to pick?

force lock % chance of success.

pick lock, face roll easy, 100% of the time.

i really don't get it.

I use force lock because I've got some chest-farming loops I run for gear, glyphs, and rings. Force lock, with full passives, is much quicker to open the chest and auto-loot than to do the lockpicking minigame every time I open a chest. I'm pretty good at lockpicking, but its quicker for me to force lock and lockpicks are cheap.