Forced Lockpicking secretly nerfed in January.

VaranisArano · February 2023

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

It's long been known that one needs to delay a few seconds before attempting to force a lock, or else you fail.

I got the feeling recently that my rhythm as to when to force had become a little too fast. Perhaps the necessary delay increased slightly.

You don't need to wait. See my data linked above.

Paralyse · February 2023

I spent 9 straight hours doing 120+ surveys a couple of weekends ago and looted every chest I came across along the way as well as many JC and cloth nodes that weren't related to the surveys.

Yes, people do spend a lot of time playing this game doing things such as chest runs that others might find boring. You might not think there is someone out there who would willingly spend 10-15 hours in a single day doing nothing but looting chests; I can assure you that there is.

Jaraal · February 2023

Amottica wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

rauyran wrote: »

Rogue_One wrote: »

ITS NOT RNG. Its consistent and it was never like this before the patch.

Force 1000 locks and post the stats here to be analyzed

I would agree but unless they keys accurate and consistent records (or someone did) prior to the patch the information would be meaningless due to lack of anything to compare it to.

But the point is accurate. It’s easy to think something was changed based on a small sampling and especially perception which tends to be inaccurate.

I’m at work and don’t have time to find it but there is a study here that someone did recording the results of a large number of forced lock attempts and comparing their findings to ZOS’s listed odds. There were indeed some discrepancies.

I have never said that the actual results from lock picking was in-line with the chance Zenimax lists in the tooltips for forcing a lock. That is not in question here and not what the OP thinks changed.

So those discrepancies are not relevant to my comment or the OP statement in this thread.

If ZOS did indeed change the odds, then they would be morally obligated to change the text showing the odds when interacting with the lock. It's a simple check that the OP could make.

Here are the original odds:

https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Locksmith

Grizzbeorn · February 2023

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

It's long been known that one needs to delay a few seconds before attempting to force a lock, or else you fail.

That is so not true.

Amottica · March 2023

VaranisArano wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

rauyran wrote: »

Rogue_One wrote: »

ITS NOT RNG. Its consistent and it was never like this before the patch.

Force 1000 locks and post the stats here to be analyzed

I would agree but unless they keys accurate and consistent records (or someone did) prior to the patch the information would be meaningless due to lack of anything to compare it to.

But the point is accurate. It’s easy to think something was changed based on a small sampling and especially perception which tends to be inaccurate.

Would this help?
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/413835/double-checking-zos-force-lock-percentages

TL;DR
Back in 2018, I found no discrepancies with overland chests. Rittings found discrepancies with Thieves Guild Heist chests.

I'd really love to see some empirical data here, because I'm really hoping to not go chest-hunting again.

@VaranisArano

Yes, that is a big help. Now we just need someone ( @Rogue_One ) to test a couple of thousand chests to see if the findings are significantly different. Until then there is nothing solid to go on when suggesting anything has changed.

Blood_again · March 2023

Rogue_One wrote: »

AND no its not RNG so just stop.

I farmed TG heists the whole January, 5 characters every day. I use forcelock every time there. An average impression about it in the beginning and in the end - totally the same.
RNG fluctuations can be harsh. Some days I had up to 4 failed attempts on 3-4 chests for most of my runs. The next day it worked with 1-2 attempts.

Sorry to hear that RNG was that evil to you last days. I wish you more luck in March.

Kaelthorn_Nightbloom · March 2023

Locksmith 4 coefficient is still 70%

https://esoitem.uesp.net/viewSkillCoef.php

Rogue_One · March 2023

I used to be able to force locks 90% of the time, now my odds are 50/50, I have instances of hitting 5 fails on simple or intermediate. And yes the skills are maxed.

The odds of me forcing it open or failing are RNG, but the chances for it to fail are far too high to what it was before the patch in January.

Here are the original odds:

https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Locksmith[/quote]

karthrag_inak · March 2023

Yes, again, we have a case of ZOS changing the entire engine to impact the play of a single player. Khajiit thinks you should feel honored - it was undoubtedly felt that you were much too capable and so they had to step in and make things harder just for you.

SpacemanSpiff1 · March 2023

Rogue_One wrote: »

I used to be able to force locks 90% of the time, now my odds are 50/50, I have instances of hitting 5 fails on simple or intermediate. And yes the skills are maxed.

The odds of me forcing it open or failing are RNG, but the chances for it to fail are far too high to what it was before the patch in January.

Here are the original odds:

https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Locksmith

case closed. anecdotally confirmed

everseeing_njpreub18_ESO · March 2023

My own experience, haven't noticed any change, even worst case on a hard lock i never go past 4-5 tries. I usually get it first try and i do it because it tends to be faster than picking (as quick as that really is).

Haven't seen anything posted in patch notes about a change.

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

everseeing_njpreub18_ESO wrote: »

My own experience, haven't noticed any change, even worst case on a hard lock i never go past 4-5 tries. I usually get it first try and i do it because it tends to be faster than picking (as quick as that really is).

Haven't seen anything posted in patch notes about a change.

seconding this

ive been forcing locks since the justice system was released and in my own experience its always been RNG

sometimes i go awhile getting force on first try, sometimes takes 2-3, and in one rare case took 13 tries

Dojohoda · March 2023

Picking locks gives xp, forcing locks burns through your supply of lockpicks. I do either depending on factors such as if the character is still leveling legerdemain or if the character is running low on lockpicks.

That said, my rng with forcing locks seems like I am on an unlucky streak. Players have brought up the topic a few times in the forums since last year or the year before, I can't remember exactly how long ago, and so others have wondered the same. Has something, whether on purpose or by accident, caused a negative effect on lockpicking rng?

Either way, I'll run through a place that drops many lockpicks from containers to replenish my supply. Some of those places are popular for farming furnishing recipes so it can be a win-win. The purple recipes are very low chance rng, but a pile of lockpicks are guaranteed. 🙃

Came back to include the name of the locations mentioned in the paragraph above in case anyone is interested.
Vvardenfell at the Dreloth Ancestral Tomb located south of the Sadrith Mora Wayshrine.
Galen at the home of Maltheo Rouillac located north-east of the Vastyr Wayshrine.

VaranisArano · March 2023

Amottica wrote: »

VaranisArano wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

rauyran wrote: »

Rogue_One wrote: »

ITS NOT RNG. Its consistent and it was never like this before the patch.

Force 1000 locks and post the stats here to be analyzed

I would agree but unless they keys accurate and consistent records (or someone did) prior to the patch the information would be meaningless due to lack of anything to compare it to.

But the point is accurate. It’s easy to think something was changed based on a small sampling and especially perception which tends to be inaccurate.

Would this help?
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/413835/double-checking-zos-force-lock-percentages

TL;DR
Back in 2018, I found no discrepancies with overland chests. Rittings found discrepancies with Thieves Guild Heist chests.

I'd really love to see some empirical data here, because I'm really hoping to not go chest-hunting again.

@VaranisArano

Yes, that is a big help. Now we just need someone ( @Rogue_One ) to test a couple of thousand chests to see if the findings are significantly different. Until then there is nothing solid to go on when suggesting anything has changed.

I'm working on collecting some data, but my time is a more limited than last time so the sample size is too small right now to draw any conclusions.

Hawco10 · March 2023

Seems to be more on the simple and intermediate.
Yesterday I had to force lock a simple 5 times. Yup. Five times and that’s with max skills. Almost always 2/3 attempts on an intermediate. In fact, I honestly can’t remember the last time an intermediate took only one try.

The_Titan_Tim · March 2023

You can keep track of your actual % of success by averaging your rating with your auto-picks.

ie; if you have a 90% chance, you should auto pick 9/10 chests that share the rating. Do around 100 chests of the same rating, and tally up any times they fail. If the failure count is around 20 or 30, there’s a problem.

Amottica · March 2023

Rogue_One wrote: »

I used to be able to force locks 90% of the time, now my odds are 50/50, I have instances of hitting 5 fails on simple or intermediate. And yes the skills are maxed.

The odds of me forcing it open or failing are RNG, but the chances for it to fail are far too high to what it was before the patch in January.

Here are the original odds:

https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Locksmith

[/quote]

@Rogue_One

Without a record of your lockpicking in this update, one that is sizeable as the one @VaranisArano linked in this thread, there is no proof that ZeniMax has changed the chance. Speaking from the memory of chances is nothing more than anecdotal.

Hoghorn · March 2023

Dojohoda wrote: »

Picking locks gives xp, forcing locks burns through your supply of lockpicks. I do either depending on factors such as if the character is still leveling legerdemain or if the character is running low on lockpicks.

That said, my rng with forcing locks seems like I am on an unlucky streak. Players have brought up the topic a few times in the forums since last year or the year before, I can't remember exactly how long ago, and so others have wondered the same. Has something, whether on purpose or by accident, caused a negative effect on lockpicking rng?

Either way, I'll run through a place that drops many lockpicks from containers to replenish my supply. Some of those places are popular for farming furnishing recipes so it can be a win-win. The purple recipes are very low chance rng, but a pile of lockpicks are guaranteed. 🙃

Came back to include the name of the locations mentioned in the paragraph above in case anyone is interested.
Vvardenfell at the Dreloth Ancestral Tomb located south of the Sadrith Mora Wayshrine.
Galen at the home of Maltheo Rouillac located north-east of the Vastyr Wayshrine.

did you know there are merchants in the big towns that sell lockpicks, cheap?

VaranisArano · March 2023

So this is a small sample size of Overland chests but I'm not really willing to spend more than the 4 or so hours I've already spent farming unless I start seeing stats from the OP, etc. that indicate something different is going on.

Simple Chests
96/120 attempts
80% success rate

79- First Try
11 - Second Try
5 - Third Try
1 - Fourth Try

Intermediate Chests
37/41 attempts
90% success rate

33 - First Try
4 - second Try

Conclusion:
While farming overland chests, I'm not seeing anywhere close to 50/50 rates, or even rates distinct enough from the expected values to raise my eyebrows. Doing a spot check of 100 attempts at Simple Chests falls well in line with my previous success rate with a much larger sample size (linked in a previous comment) Last time I had an 82% success rate, this time 80%, so I have no reason to think there was a major change in overland chest RNG from a update.

Note: this is a spot check of my previous data. As you can see, the hilariously small sample size means that my Intermediate results is above the expected value, while the Simple chest result is low, but not so low that I'm concerned.

Advanced and Master stats for those interested.

Advanced
9 successes/12 attempts
75% success rate

Master
12 successes/19 attempts
63% success rate

Jaraal · March 2023

Hoghorn wrote: »

Dojohoda wrote: »

Picking locks gives xp, forcing locks burns through your supply of lockpicks. I do either depending on factors such as if the character is still leveling legerdemain or if the character is running low on lockpicks.

That said, my rng with forcing locks seems like I am on an unlucky streak. Players have brought up the topic a few times in the forums since last year or the year before, I can't remember exactly how long ago, and so others have wondered the same. Has something, whether on purpose or by accident, caused a negative effect on lockpicking rng?

Either way, I'll run through a place that drops many lockpicks from containers to replenish my supply. Some of those places are popular for farming furnishing recipes so it can be a win-win. The purple recipes are very low chance rng, but a pile of lockpicks are guaranteed. 🙃

Came back to include the name of the locations mentioned in the paragraph above in case anyone is interested.
Vvardenfell at the Dreloth Ancestral Tomb located south of the Sadrith Mora Wayshrine.
Galen at the home of Maltheo Rouillac located north-east of the Vastyr Wayshrine.

did you know there are merchants in the big towns that sell lockpicks, cheap?

Personally, I buy thousands of lockpicks from my guilds’ traders. I try to support local businesses whenever possible.

Amottica · March 2023

VaranisArano wrote: »

So this is a small sample size of Overland chests but I'm not really willing to spend more than the 4 or so hours I've already spent farming unless I start seeing stats from the OP, etc. that indicate something different is going on.

Simple Chests
96/120 attempts
80% success rate
79- First Try
11 - Second Try
5 - Third Try
1 - Fourth Try

Intermediate Chests
37/41 attempts
90% success rate
33 - First Try
4 - second Try

Conclusion:
While farming overland chests, I'm not seeing anywhere close to 50/50 rates, or even rates distinct enough from the expected values to raise my eyebrows. Doing a spot check of 100 attempts at Simple Chests falls well in line with my previous success rate with a much larger sample size (linked in a previous comment) Last time I had an 82% success rate, this time 80%, so I have no reason to think there was a major change in overland chest RNG from a update.

Note: this is a spot check of my previous data. As you can see, the hilariously small sample size means that my Intermediate results is above the expected value, while the Simple chest result is low, but not so low that I'm concerned.

Advanced and Master stats for those interested.
Advanced
9 successes/12 attempts
75% success rate

Master
12 successes/19 attempts
63% success rate

@VaranisArano

Thx for this. While we can expect some of the results to be off a bit due to the small sample size it is enough to put to rest the suggestion Zenimax made changes in this area. It had seemed unlikely and now we know it never happened.

Dr_Con · March 2023

Jaraal wrote: »

SilverBride wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

You would definitely have to be doing it for hours and hours one end to hit a thousand though, as you have pointed out.

I didn't even factor in competition from other players and respawn times.

Respawn times are not static, and do vary from zone to zone. I can think of one particular delve where the chest (and node) respawn rate is unusually fast and you can open them continually without waiting, other than having to take time to kill the respawning monsters.

There are also mysterious cooldowns that ZOS refuses to discuss, that can be avoided by rotating different characters in and out. Even though chests and safeboxes are not instanced, there are other factors in play besides pure RNG. Staying on one character while farming is not the most productive method.

so you're buying 5 stacks of lockpicks per day of playing? As forcing a lock breaks it every time regardless of success or fail... Don't get me wrong I thought you were speaking in hyperbole when you said people pick 1000 things a day, but you defended your point. While I personally see it as possible, and @SilverBride even did the math to show how frequently you'd have to pick locks, I would see it as the most mind-numbingly boring activity you could possibly do in the game, and find it hard to believe that someone not trying to set a world record would ignore other things like resource node harvesting, questing, or any number of things put in the game that would be incentivized over treasure chest running. I don't really have to mention that there is a chance of fail as well per treasure chest, and if you factor those in you are probably not reaching 1000 chests, but probably more around 500ish or less depending on your skills. But you know yourself best, if you're buying stacks upon stacks of lockpicks and are not getting overwhelmed by the amount of items you are looting, then all the more power to you.

Jaraal · March 2023

Dr_Con wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

SilverBride wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

You would definitely have to be doing it for hours and hours one end to hit a thousand though, as you have pointed out.

I didn't even factor in competition from other players and respawn times.

Respawn times are not static, and do vary from zone to zone. I can think of one particular delve where the chest (and node) respawn rate is unusually fast and you can open them continually without waiting, other than having to take time to kill the respawning monsters.

There are also mysterious cooldowns that ZOS refuses to discuss, that can be avoided by rotating different characters in and out. Even though chests and safeboxes are not instanced, there are other factors in play besides pure RNG. Staying on one character while farming is not the most productive method.

so you're buying 5 stacks of lockpicks per day of playing? As forcing a lock breaks it every time regardless of success or fail... Don't get me wrong I thought you were speaking in hyperbole when you said people pick 1000 things a day, but you defended your point. While I personally see it as possible, and @SilverBride even did the math to show how frequently you'd have to pick locks, I would see it as the most mind-numbingly boring activity you could possibly do in the game, and find it hard to believe that someone not trying to set a world record would ignore other things like resource node harvesting, questing, or any number of things put in the game that would be incentivized over treasure chest running. I don't really have to mention that there is a chance of fail as well per treasure chest, and if you factor those in you are probably not reaching 1000 chests, but probably more around 500ish or less depending on your skills. But you know yourself best, if you're buying stacks upon stacks of lockpicks and are not getting overwhelmed by the amount of items you are looting, then all the more power to you.

People are making a lot of assumptions, and that's fine. There are a lot of tips, tricks, and shortcuts that casual observers aren't aware of, as well as people focusing on things that I don't, which is logical. I can also go to Cyrodiil on the busiest campaign and earn a million AP playing solo in one session, which is probably impossible for most as well. And as far as resource farming goes? It's hard to pull one item that can sell for 20 million gold doing that, as can be done with lockpicking. And when I grab something like that, it's far from "mind-numbingly boring" for me.

I've picked up a trumpet only one time, and based on my success with that session, I might wrongly assume that it would be impossible for anyone to play such a clumsy instrument.... let alone play it and sell millions of records doing so.

rpa · March 2023

Anyway, I just do the lockpicking minigame. It gets routine after doing it for a while and appears not be affected with network lag which I currently have plenty in my end. Surprisingly situation appears same with pickpocketing rng gaem. As I hit pickpocket when indicated about higher change and get stuck paralysed for seconds of lag and still appear not fail that often.

Grizzbeorn · March 2023

Jaraal wrote: »

And as far as resource farming goes? It's hard to pull one item that can sell for 20 million gold doing that, as can be done with lockpicking.

What one item are you able to get from chests/safe boxes that sells for 20 million?

Asking for a friend. And I don't mind if you have to kill me after telling me; I'm not doing anything important, anyway.

freespirit · March 2023

Grizzbeorn wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

And as far as resource farming goes? It's hard to pull one item that can sell for 20 million gold doing that, as can be done with lockpicking.

What one item are you able to get from chests/safe boxes that sells for 20 million?

Asking for a friend. And I don't mind if you have to kill me after telling me; I'm not doing anything important, anyway.

I'm not sure what could be the 20mill item but there's some really rare and expensive paintings and triptychs out there.

The triptychs sell for around 10mill on PC-EU.

Jusey1 · March 2023

Katlefiya wrote: »

Just learn to pick the lock correctly. It is not that hard.

Force lock is just faster and works most of the time. Not sure what is wrong with OP

endgamesmug · March 2023

My master chests pop first time the simple and intermediate about 5 tries, seems like things are backwards 😆

Zenzuki · March 2023

Grizzbeorn wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

And as far as resource farming goes? It's hard to pull one item that can sell for 20 million gold doing that, as can be done with lockpicking.

What one item are you able to get from chests/safe boxes that sells for 20 million?

Asking for a friend. And I don't mind if you have to kill me after telling me; I'm not doing anything important, anyway.

I'll be that friend. I'd also like to know. And don't worry Jaraal, you can still kill Grizz afterwards, I've still got a few things do
after this.

The only "overland" item I know of that could pull that kind of gold is the Enchanted Khajiti Brazier, and that doesn't come from chests/safe boxes.

zaria · March 2023

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

It's long been known that one needs to delay a few seconds before attempting to force a lock, or else you fail.

I got the feeling recently that my rhythm as to when to force had become a little too fast. Perhaps the necessary delay increased slightly.

its an cooldown on forcing locks anyway, not noted anything outside this. This cooldown might replaced an earlier hidden cooldown.