Saberkeel drops confirmed working, not bugged ty zos

Arunei · April 2022

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Did it again today on a character without the buffs bur did have quests on log, and once again got a drop pretty much right away?

When are you you guys gettign your drops? How many do you open before you get your style page? Do you have an old buff active when you get your page?

It's literally just RNG, no buffs matter. I've gotten a page every day so far and have had numerous buffs, including the exp bonus, active each time. You're looking for something to label as the problem when the problem is RNG, which is a problem for the game overall. ZOS relies on flat RNG too much; just look at things like Ancient Daedric.

I've gotten my pages at different times and after random numbers of boxes. The first two days I did my stuff throughout the day, the following two days I did them mostly in the morning. Sometimes I got them on the first character I did, sometimes it took close to the last.

It is entirely up to RNG.

MakoRuu · April 2022

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

Susan_Sto · April 2022

I had 2 motifs pages drop on the first day but only had 1 a day since. I have also had dupes drop and looking at what is in the guild stores so have others. I have also had many many dupes for the spider pet even after completing the build to have my own complete pet.

So I agree it's just the RNG being weighted in favour of the spider pet parts. Annoying but with over a week to go everyone should have a chance to get a complete set of the motifs either from drops or the store by the time this event is done.

ectoplasmicninja · April 2022

Thankfully folks are trading pages in zone chat, so I was able to trade my second greaves page for a helm. Just need gauntlets and girdle now and I'm done. Sadly the set doesn't look as good on my characters as it did in the promo image.

spartaxoxo · April 2022

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Larcomar · April 2022

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Larcomar wrote: »

As others have said, it's one page per day. Its dropped from the first load of writs every day for me. Honestly, this event just seems to be log in - eat cake - collect tickets - craft writs - open boxes - swapsie in guild - log out. I'm not going to even try to suggest this is fun, but I wouldn't call it painful.

Here's another on a different side of the scale. This was me but today for the first time I had the buff and old dailies.

Just to update as you quoted me, I think I had 4 days getting it from writs on first toon. But then, then, today, 4 toons, 28 boxes, nada. I just gave up in the end. Maybe its whacky RNG. Maybe it's a bug. Who knows. As others have said, we'd need a bigger sample size. I think all I've definitively concluded is that this is not how I want to spend my free time. On the plus side, I did manage to answer a coupel of emails and do some shopping onlien while I played this "game."

MasterSpatula · April 2022

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Something could have a drop rate of 50% and it's still possible for someone to try a hundred times without success. Not probable, but possible, and as your sample size increases, the number of improbable results you see will also increase.

This is why straight RNG rewards with no factors to mitigate the possible quirks of an RNG system is bad design. Experiencing an improbably high number of improbably poor results is unenjoyable, discouraging, and makes players feel singled out in an insulting way. Good design means avoiding this.

Dagoth_Rac · April 2022

There are two spider part drop chances. A high probably straight roll for a spider part and a low probability roll for a Saberkeel drop (which turns into a spider part if you have already gotten a Saberkeel page that day). I have very rarely gotten two spider parts in one box which must be the regular high volume spider part drop combined with a second Saberkeel page of the day that got flipped into a spider part.

Lindsey · April 2022

I've been doing this event on 4 seperate psn accounts, 2 of them have still not received a single page. The other 2 get one every other day. The accounts have multiple characters too. My main account has 18.

Alaya · April 2022

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

renne · April 2022

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

renne wrote: »

The RNG on this is so broken, I have received 1 page every day but they've been:

1 x cuirass
4 x greaves

FOUR GREAVES PAGES WHY.

I see people trying to trade pages in zone chat, so hopefully you can trade your duplicates for pages you need by the time the event is ending.

I sure hope so, because I just got my FIFTH greaves page drop out of 6 page drops total.

Snamyap · April 2022

Think I got one every day, but yesterday I just bought the three ones I was missing. I'll try and sell the rest I get.

ectoplasmicninja · April 2022

renne wrote: »

I sure hope so, because I just got my FIFTH greaves page drop out of 6 page drops total.

Yikes! I only got one duplicate so far (also greaves, funnily enough) but easily traded it in zone chat for a helm. You shouldn't have any trouble. Thankfully I finished my set this morning so I don't have to sweat over the weird RNG anymore.

Arunei · April 2022

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Alinhbo_Tyaka · April 2022

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

shadyjane62 · April 2022

Have gotten very few, have learned not to care.

spartaxoxo · April 2022

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Sure but the odds of getting no heads after flips say 20 flips is (1/2)^20 = 1/1048576

It's not impossible for people to get only heads in such a scenario, but it's highly unlikely. That a lot of users are getting this kind of outcome is pretty unusual. It doesn't mean it's bugged but it's certainly a possibility. Really only a few people should be having trouble because a playerbase this size, it's usually a couple of people with unusually bad or good luck. But the playerbase seems split on whether this style page drops a lot or a little, which I've personally never seen.

An answer from ZOS if it's related to the Event Ticket bug, which IS linked to outdated buffs would be appreciated.

Arunei · April 2022

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

spartaxoxo · April 2022

Arunei wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

Every word of this is true but there have been a LOT of reports of people opening 100+ boxes and getting nothing while others consistently open like 20 boxes and get something every day. It could easily just be sucky RNG.

But with so many reports is worth looking into as it's highly unlikely for someone to say flip a coin and get heads 100 times, let alone a sizable number of people.

Your odds when you flip a coin of getting tails are always 1/2, but the more coins you flip the probability of you only getting heads does decrease.

SerasWhip · April 2022

it's not bugged...

Arunei · April 2022

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

Every word of this is true but there have been a LOT of reports of people opening 100+ boxes and getting nothing while others consistently open like 20 boxes and get something every day. It could easily just be sucky RNG.

But with so many reports is worth looking into as it's highly unlikely for someone to say flip a coin and get heads 100 times, let alone a sizable number of people.

Your odds when you flip a coin of getting tails are always 1/2, but the more coins you flip the probability of you only getting heads does decrease.

Even if the probability goes down, it's still possible with bad luck (in this case bad RNG) to repeatedly get tails. RNG doesn't change regardless of the probability that you would get Y outcome over X; your chances of those outcomes will remain the same no matter how high or low.

I would be more inclined to believe there's a problem with the RNG if not for the fact that a good number of people are reporting getting pages after a smaller number of opened boxes every day. The fact that it's not taking everyone so long to get the pages each day means there can't be a problem with the RNG being too low; if the RNG itself was set too low then far more people would be reporting not getting pages despite opening dozens of boxes.

Essentially too many people are reporting getting pages after a smaller number of boxes for me personally to believe there's an unintended problem with the drop rate. If more people weren't getting them I would definitely think there was something going on, but some friends of mine have also been getting pages just about every day they've done their rounds of writs (one has around 8 or 9 characters and the other has I believe 12 or 14). Obviously a small sample size but they are a few more to add to the number who are indeed getting pages fairly regularly for the most part.

spartaxoxo · April 2022

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

Every word of this is true but there have been a LOT of reports of people opening 100+ boxes and getting nothing while others consistently open like 20 boxes and get something every day. It could easily just be sucky RNG.

But with so many reports is worth looking into as it's highly unlikely for someone to say flip a coin and get heads 100 times, let alone a sizable number of people.

Your odds when you flip a coin of getting tails are always 1/2, but the more coins you flip the probability of you only getting heads does decrease.

Even if the probability goes down, it's still possible with bad luck (in this case bad RNG) to repeatedly get tails. RNG doesn't change regardless of the probability that you would get Y outcome over X; your chances of those outcomes will remain the same no matter how high or low.

I would be more inclined to believe there's a problem with the RNG if not for the fact that a good number of people are reporting getting pages after a smaller number of opened boxes every day. The fact that it's not taking everyone so long to get the pages each day means there can't be a problem with the RNG being too low; if the RNG itself was set too low then far more people would be reporting not getting pages despite opening dozens of boxes.

Essentially too many people are reporting getting pages after a smaller number of boxes for me personally to believe there's an unintended problem with the drop rate. If more people weren't getting them I would definitely think there was something going on, but some friends of mine have also been getting pages just about every day they've done their rounds of writs (one has around 8 or 9 characters and the other has I believe 12 or 14). Obviously a small sample size but they are a few more to add to the number who are indeed getting pages fairly regularly for the most part.

That's why I don't think the RNG is set to low, but rather they may be some external factor like a bug influencing things so that the odds of not getting a page are more common.

I expect to see some people have terrible luck or some particularly good luck, and most of the reports to be fairly uniform. With either being mostly reported as too high (like the firepot) or too low (like the blackdrake tats) but instead the reports are all over the place.

Your odds of getting a tails never change, but the probability that hundreds of pulls never result in a tails is exceedingly low. That it's happening a lot usually would indicate that the drop rate is simply low (in which case that would be uniform reporting of being low) or some external factor impacts the odds.

For a coin flip for example the probability not getting any heads in 20 pulls is over 1 in a million.

(1⁄2)^20 = 1⁄1048576

Without knowing the odds of this grab bag or any external factors, I can't know why the reports are so mixed. But I can ask people what they got.

FlopsyPrince · April 2022

Many here need to realize getting random numbers on a computer is quite hard and easy to mess up.

proprio.meb16_ESO · April 2022

So far now (just one char, just cake buff on, done all writs, the two jar-lee and zahari quests since i miss some fragments there, and all the dailies i could - even after getting the item):

1. nothing in few than dozen attempts (due to maintenance)
2. after about 20 attempts
3. 5th attempt
4. 2nd attempt
5. 18th attempt
6. 27th attempt
7. 8th attempt
8. 21st attempt
9. 4th attempt
10. 2nd attempt
11. 15th attempt
12. 14th attempt
All pieces i got werent duplicates until 6th day.
I cant see anything wrong, on sixth day was about to call it a day without a drop after 26 boxes (it happens, nothing to worry about, just bad luck - its *not* a guaranteed drop)... its just rng at work.

Saberkeel is also not so expensive compared to other styles (i see around 30k per piece, dropping down every event day - edit:now around 19k - and ofc you can always get it with tickets) so its probably a more common drop than you think, or market prices would be a lot higher now.

spartaxoxo · April 2022

proprio.meb16_ESO wrote: »

Saberkeel is also not so expensive compared to other styles (i see around 30k per piece, dropping down every event day, and ofc you can always get it with tickets) so its probably a more common drop than you think, or market prices would be a lot higher now.

I actually think it's supposed to be pretty common. I have mostly gotten each day and in a low number of dailies. I think that's the intention and the market proces certainly reflect that.

FeedbackOnly · April 2022

Not a fan of how new style page was distributed

Alinhbo_Tyaka · April 2022

Arunei wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

You keep going to coin flipping which is a true random process when RNG is not a true random process. RNG is deterministic and the numbers returned are determined by a seed value. These number sequences will always be the same when the same seed number has been used. These aren't real values but are for an example of how it works.

- random() is initialized with a seed value of 1
- 1st call return 4
- 2nd call returns 1
- 3rd call returns 3
- etc

You will always get the same sequence of numbers from random() using a seed value of 5. So the pseudo-random number sequence is dependent on how the function is seeded. The number sequences returned for a given seed are language implementation dependent.

Another thing that can affect what is returned in the maximum random number. If this value is 10 then the pseudo-random numbers will repeat in their original order after ten calls to the function. How this value is set is language implementation dependent.

This is why I say a problem with seeding would be disguised as looking like nothing more than bad RNG and why it is worth considering because depending upon how it is calculated there are numerous ways the same seed value could be determined without being aware of it.

proprio.meb16_ESO · April 2022

This is true if they're using the common pseudo-random number generator provided by library functions (any language has one) and seed sequence just once.

No need to rediscover wheel, but calling the seed function with the current timestamp before generating each number let you already get a quasi random distribution (quasi just because if you know the seed each time you can determine it).
Other methods (i remember a complicated one using white noise which is actually random) can be even more close to real randomness.

Not sure Zos has put up something more complicated of a call to rnd(), but you cannot tell for sure.
Also unless they're not a bunch of newbie developers, they're not seeding the sequence just once at the start of the game and forget about it.

Note also (it's not a detail) the generator is server-side (or it could be easily tampered with), so it's the server itself throwing hundred of thousand of randoms every sec for every player.
In this scenario you could even avoid a re-seed of the rng as the sequence would repeat itself, but among all the players playing, not just one.

dmnqwk · April 2022

I haven't gotten a saberkeel page in 3 days. Gotten stuff so I'm not majorly disappointed, but it's a bit funny how they've dried up.

ZOS_Kevin · April 2022

Hi All. Wanted to follow up and confirm that this is not bugged and working as intended. The current drop rates have not changed from PTS testing.

However, we have noted thoughts and concerns around the drop frequency with the dev team for future consideration. They are aware of some of the conversation around drop rates.