Saberkeel drops confirmed working, not bugged ty zos

Obs1dian

For what it's worth:
I run 6 or 7 craft writs on 8 characters every day. I only open boxes until I get a Saberkeel page (since they drop only once per day). So far I've never recieved one on the first character, but I've never had to open any on the last 2 characters. The first 3 characters are empty of boxes most of the time, so it seems to take at least 10 boxes and more often 20-40 for a drop.

Since there's no anti-duplication code there's no guarantee of getting a complete set in the event window, but if you have the time, patience/desire, and bag space you can reliably get one page each day. I'm also getting maybe a half dozen random style pages from across the game content each day and a lot of crafting rares. For me this is worth spending about an hour a day (including inventory management, which is significant). This sort of scale would be much harder without either ESO plus or a guild bank for all the extra materials created.

Because I haven't really done style farming in normal times, almost all of the styles I loot are new to me, so I'm actually enjoying this.

ectoplasmicninja

Just for anecdotal comparison purposes, this morning I got a Saberkeel gauntlet page from my first set of 7 writs on my main crafter. Don't know which box it was from as I have the addon that automatically opens them all, but this was the quickest one for the event so far. It's been all over the place for me (from today within 7 boxes to a day I needed to open 85 of them), which seems to support the idea of it being indeed "random". The rate could be bumped up a bit for future events IMO - my set is complete because I've been doing 6 or 7 writs on 10 characters daily at a minimum, but new players don't have as many "quick daily" options and would have to spend a lot more time doing world boss and delve dailies and so get way fewer boxes.

On the other hand, one of my characters turned in 6 writs and got 5 spider parts...omg. I have over 100 of them right now and I only ever needed 3! Maybe spread some of the bountiful spider part RNG to other useful items? No shade to the pet, but I literally cannot use the extra parts as you can only create it once. I do appreciate that they stack though.

Olauron

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

Arunei wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

MakoRuu wrote: »

It's not bugged, but the pages drop rates are such trash you have to open 40 - 100 boxes a day just to get one.

And then once you get that one page, you can't get another until the next day for some silly reason.

Instead, it just gives you spider garbage.

I have literally dozens of spider pieces collecting to see how many I get by the end of the event.

See there's a handful of people saying this and there's those of us getting them after like 1 set of crafting writs each day, to the point that pages are getting pretty cheap.

It seems to me the RNG on this is pretty good. So I had been wondering why some users needed to open hundreds and still can't do it. It doesn't seem like a couple of users either. I have mostly got them after 3-10 boxes.

Because it's RANDOM Number Generator. It's the exact same thing as flipping a coin 100 times. You have a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails each time regardless of the previous results. You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails each time, which in this case would be opening 100 boxes and not getting a Saberkeel page. There is nothing else going on, no hidden or secret factor that's deciding who gets a page after X number of boxes. It is 100% RNG alone. There's nothing else at play.

Alaya wrote: »

If you're supposed to be getting a Saberkeel page instead of firepot spider parts, I can tell you, I've gotten 3 pages since this event started and -tons- of firepot spider parts. In fact, today when I did my dailies, I got tons of spider parts and no Saberkeel page. RNG sucks.

The Saberkeel pages and Spider pieces are separate pools and rolled independently of one another. The only connection they have is if you get a Saberkeel page any given day, any additional pages will instead get kicked to the Spider piece pool to get rerolled. Spider pieces drop independently of the Saberkeel pages though. It's why you can get Spider pieces but no Saberkeel pages.

Actually it is not the same as flipping a coin 100 times. RNG generates a pseudo random number based on an initial seed number. The random() function and its variations will return the exact same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. It is for this reason that I question RNG in ESO as a potential problem with the seed number which will exhibit itself as nothing more than bad luck when its not.

My point is that it doesn't matter how many boxes you've opened (coins you flip) because the chance of getting a Saberkeel page (a flip to land on heads) will always be the same regardless of how many boxes you've opened. Just like 100/200/500 flipped coins can all land on tails, opening 100/200/500 boxes can result in none of them dropping a Saberkeel page.

That's not to say problems can't happen, but it's only happened a few times I can remember that ZOS has said that the drop rate on any given item HAS been way lower than it was supposed to be. With that being the case, and the fact that numerous people here have posted getting pages just about every day (I've gotten a page literally every day myself, though they've been spread out over characters for the most part), I think it's safe to say the drop rate isn't lower than intended and it really is just bad luck for the people who have been getting fewer or none so far.

One also has to take into account the number of dailies being done, too. I would bet a decent number of people who aren't getting drops aren't doing as many dailies as myself and others who are getting pages just about every day. I do 126 (7 writs on 18 characters) so that gives me more chances compared to someone who's doing say 50 or 70. I do think some people have posted doing 100+ and getting no pages yet, but we also have to keep in mind that doing 100+ doesn't guarantee them to drop. I could very well get no more pages for the rest of the event.

Every word of this is true but there have been a LOT of reports of people opening 100+ boxes and getting nothing while others consistently open like 20 boxes and get something every day. It could easily just be sucky RNG.

But with so many reports is worth looking into as it's highly unlikely for someone to say flip a coin and get heads 100 times, let alone a sizable number of people.

Your odds when you flip a coin of getting tails are always 1/2, but the more coins you flip the probability of you only getting heads does decrease.

I would be more inclined to believe there's a problem with the RNG if not for the fact that a good number of people are reporting getting pages after a smaller number of opened boxes every day. The fact that it's not taking everyone so long to get the pages each day means there can't be a problem with the RNG being too low; if the RNG itself was set too low then far more people would be reporting not getting pages despite opening dozens of boxes.

If the seed is reset during character swap (log-out - log-in), it is entirely possible to have "bad luck" for 100 - 200 boxes, as those would happen for 4 - 10 characters. From my very limited experience it is always better in ESO to open 50 containers on one character than 5 containers on each of the 10 characters.

spartaxoxo

ZOS_Kevin wrote: »

Hi All. Wanted to follow up and confirm that this is not bugged and working as intended. The current drop rates have not changed from PTS testing.

However, we have noted thoughts and concerns around the drop frequency with the dev team for future consideration. They are aware of some of the conversation around drop rates.

Thanks. I'm glad to hear it's working. Thanks for checking.

Epona222

ZOS_Kevin wrote: »

Hi All. Wanted to follow up and confirm that this is not bugged and working as intended. The current drop rates have not changed from PTS testing.

However, we have noted thoughts and concerns around the drop frequency with the dev team for future consideration. They are aware of some of the conversation around drop rates.

Thanks - I have done daily writs on 18 characters today (for a total of 126 reward boxes) and haven't received a saberkeel page. This is IMO unacceptable.

How grindy something is needs to be considered, I would rather get a guaranteed once per account drop from the first box per day than this horrendous grind.

Blinx

I do crafting writs on 4 characters plus the Jar-lee quest, so 32 per day, most def not getting the style page daily, "working as intended" means nothing to me

Sarannah

Something that only drops during a limited time event, should not be timegated as well. That defeats the purpose of players being able to make the most of an event if they want to!

There is a huge difference between:
"Cool, I got a style page. I'm going to keep opening boxes and hope for another one if I am lucky."
"Cool, I got my style page for today. Time to go and do something else, as the next one can only drop tomorrow."