With 100+ boxes per day opened since the event started, I'd say they are tweaking the drop rates as we go in order not to have an unreasonable or fatal impact on the in-game market for motifs. I got a barrage of motifs the first day, but now the drop rate seems to have decreased quite a bit. The style pages, however, have become annoyingly common in the past few days. I frequently get two in one box, and yesterday I collected about 5 style pages per day per character by just doing the 7 crafting writs. I can't even give them away now, and my guild bank is filling up with them because they don't stack and can't be stored in personal banks. Whatever style pages i get from now on will have to be destroyed.

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO wrote: »

With 100+ boxes per day opened since the event started, I'd say they are tweaking the drop rates as we go in order not to have an unreasonable or fatal impact on the in-game market for motifs. I got a barrage of motifs the first day, but now the drop rate seems to have decreased quite a bit. The style pages, however, have become annoyingly common in the past few days. I frequently get two in one box, and yesterday I collected about 5 style pages per day per character by just doing the 7 crafting writs. I can't even give them away now, and my guild bank is filling up with them because they don't stack and can't be stored in personal banks. Whatever style pages i get from now on will have to be destroyed.

You describe my situation on the spot. And I've deleted the style pages since like day 3 or something, if some friend wants I give away of course, otherwise it's just a waste of time.

cheemers wrote: »

I've not noticed any change in motif drop rate (responding just to try and reduce confirmation bias in this thread).

Always good to hear another opinion How many boxes are you opening each day?

I have an addon (not public; for my own personal use) that logs everything that that I've gotten out of these boxes. I'm doing around ~300 boxes per day (combined across both NA and EU servers and I have alt accounts doing writs too).

The last time I analyzed the data (which was a couple of nights ago), ~15% of boxes contained a crafting motif, ~10% of boxes contained a Companion style page, and ~10% of boxes contained a Jephrine style page. These drop rates are reasonably stable. There are of course fluctuations due to RNG, but they are within the range that I'd expect for a relatively small sample size.*

* While 300/day is a large number of boxes for this event, for the purposes of drawing statistical conclusions, even 300 is still small. For example, if I look at just what I get on EU, which is around 90/day, there was one day where I was around only 10% for motifs, but with just 90/day the difference between 10% and 15% is only 4-5 pages and can easily be swung by a relatively short lucky or unlucky streak.

Okay, I just re-processed my logs again, since the last time I had looked at the data was a couple of days ago. For this event, I'm currently at 402 crafting motifs out of 2576 opened boxes, which places me at 15.6%. Two days ago, it was at 15.8%. So basically, after adding two more days worth of boxes to the tally, the overall drop rate has remained the same.

Of those 402 motifs, 283 dropped out of 1779 boxes on NA (15.9%), and 119 dropped out of 797 boxes on EU (14.9%).

As a point of comparison, for last year's event, I got 432 crafting motifs out of 2867 boxes, which works out to 15%. (Note: An earlier version of this post claimed a much lower drop rate for the 2019 event, but I had forgotten that I didn't start using my addon to log the drops until a number of days after the event had started. So adjusting the box count to exclude the boxes that were not logged, I get a drop rate that is consistent with this year's.)

I opened 7 from one of my characters after the daily crafting writs and 4 of my boxes were identical. 20 Bugloss and 5 mundane stones.

I am being flooded with motifs from the boxes. I haven't noticed any difference.

Me neither. Still getting about the same amount each day (I do 7 crafting dailies on 9 chars and on my main around 12-15 other dailies additionally).

I also am getting both on NA and EU plenty of rare motifs and furniture plans. I'm not going to complain.

And I finally got a Murkmire wind chime, not from a box, but quite cheap at a guild trader. Most wonderful time of the year.

I’ve opened 1100 boxes. 150 motifs, 7 worm cult, 200 corn flower, about 100 of each dragon ingredient, 100 clam gull, 80 mother of pearl. 7 chrome 6 zircon 8 purp recipes 2 nirncrux.

I think there's some coding in place, that if you'd got a lot in the beginning then the chance for drops will automatically lower or something.

I got around 8 or 9 motifs the first few days on 9 chars, now I'm lucky if I get one motiff.